Passage planning Artic adventures

[David R Broise]

Look folks this subject is very current but like last year North America had one of the hardest winters recorded. Jimmy Cornnell of world cruising fame , had a new boat designed and built to attempt the North West passage this year. So up he goes to position himself in the Summer months just ended. Guess what He's sitting somewhere of the coast of Greenland and finds that the Ice packs that he had hoped would have broken up (at very least melted some) are thick and fast and impassable. Had he attempted to try route he would have been stuck fast for a considerable amount of time in the frozen packs of the North. So middle of summer ice packs are solid. Now I deliver boats near and far and have amassed 200,000nm + in all sorts of oceans and sea of the world. Yeah can be rough at times , but all this doom and gloom. I firmly believe there are ebbs and flows like the tides , in the weather patterns and currents of the seas that make up our oceans.Now I have flown so many times across the Polar region and have seen for myself just how extensive the ice coverage can get from one year to the next, me thinks we all should calm down a little with all the so called extreme scenerios.

[barnakiel]

Indeed. It will be most interesting to watch if the melting trends continue, stop or reverse. Pleasure sailing is on the margins of the commercial and military acts there. I think the Ruskis and the Canadians may get pretty disappointed having just spent billions to secure their interests in the region.

Jimmy's new toy is not all that out and out arctic boat but sure with the volume and space he can get some exercise on a stationary bike attached to the boats dynamo as he bikes across the snow fields in the warm safety of his boat's well glassed out deck salon.

b.

[hpeer]

Canadian Ice Service long term charts tell a different story. Lots of loss over the decades. Strong trend continuing. Last year used to be a mild year, now it was exceptional. Look at the data not the news.

[Rick R]

At least Jimmy Cornnell had enough sense to turn around. What I don't like is the "adventurers" who are foolish enough to push on into ice conditions that they can't handle. Then they have to be rescued by the Canadian Military at great expense to the Canadian taxpayer.

A lot of people don't realize that there is a lot of variation in the amount of ice from year to year. And when they get in trouble, Search and Rescue will rescue the people but the boat is always abandoned. There is no TowboatUS or Seatow up there, and communities with any kind of repair or towing facilities are very few. Add in the poor or non existing charts, and the scarce weather reports, and you have very difficult conditions in the best years.

As a Canadian taxpayer, I think our government should require all vessels traveling to arctic regions to post a bond, equal to the cost of rescuing them from their own foolishness. If they don't need rescuing, they would get their bond back.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Rick R

(...)

As a Canadian taxpayer, I think our government should require all vessels traveling to arctic regions to post a bond, equal to the cost of rescuing them from their own foolishness.

As a European taxpayer, I think our government should require all Canadians to post a bond, equal to the cost of reading their foolish posts at CF. No way they will ever get that bond back.

;-)

b.

[Vasco]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

As a European taxpayer, I think our government should require all Canadians to post a bond, equal to the cost of reading their foolish posts at CF. No way they will ever get that bond back.

;-)

b.

Have not been to Europe for quite a few years. Is there a European income tax now? How do they administer it? Does it all go to Brussels?

[Delancey]

Originally Posted by David R Broise

Look folks this subject is very current but like last year North America had one of the hardest winters recorded. Jimmy Cornnell of world cruising fame , had a new boat designed and built to attempt the North West passage this year. So up he goes to position himself in the Summer months just ended. Guess what He's sitting somewhere of the coast of Greenland and finds that the Ice packs that he had hoped would have broken up (at very least melted some) are thick and fast and impassable. Had he attempted to try route he would have been stuck fast for a considerable amount of time in the frozen packs of the North. So middle of summer ice packs are solid. Now I deliver boats near and far and have amassed 200,000nm + in all sorts of oceans and sea of the world. Yeah can be rough at times , but all this doom and gloom. I firmly believe there are ebbs and flows like the tides , in the weather patterns and currents of the seas that make up our oceans.Now I have flown so many times across the Polar region and have seen for myself just how extensive the ice coverage can get from one year to the next, me thinks we all should calm down a little with all the so called extreme scenerios.

I am not really sure what your point is. Are you saying climate change is just a bunch of hype? If so, I don't know why you would reference Jimmy Cornell. In his own words-

"Albeit late, the opening of the Northwest Passage does prove
that climate change is happening, as this phenomenon and the steady
shrinking of the Arctic polar ice cap are indicators that the global
climate is changing."

Northwest Passage Gate Opens - Cornell Sailing Events & Publications


One bad winter does not make a trend.

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Canadian Ice Service long term charts tell a different story. Lots of loss over the decades. Strong trend continuing. Last year used to be a mild year, now it was exceptional. Look at the data not the news.

I just did and the Artic ice extent is within one standard deviation of the last 34 year average. Not sure how that is a strong long term trend but maybe you could explain it to me.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

[Delancey]

From the linked page - "Arctic sea ice extent for November was the 9th lowest in the satellite record. Through 2014, the linear rate of decline for November extent over the satellite record is 4.7% per decade."

[Hyrdflyr]

As a guy who spent some years living and flying in arctic Alaska, I just wish you would all learn to spell ARCTIC correctly.

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by David R Broise

Look folks this subject is very current but like last year North America had one of the hardest winters recorded. Jimmy Cornnell of world cruising fame , had a new boat designed and built to attempt the North West passage this year. So up he goes to position himself in the Summer months just ended. Guess what He's sitting somewhere of the coast of Greenland and finds that the Ice packs that he had hoped would have broken up (at very least melted some) are thick and fast and impassable. Had he attempted to try route he would have been stuck fast for a considerable amount of time in the frozen packs of the North. So middle of summer ice packs are solid. Now I deliver boats near and far and have amassed 200,000nm + in all sorts of oceans and sea of the world. Yeah can be rough at times , but all this doom and gloom. I firmly believe there are ebbs and flows like the tides , in the weather patterns and currents of the seas that make up our oceans.Now I have flown so many times across the Polar region and have seen for myself just how extensive the ice coverage can get from one year to the next, me thinks we all should calm down a little with all the so called extreme scenerios.

Not sure whether you are saying that recent opportunities to make the passage have been isolated seasonal incidents, or that this year is an outlier to the overall trend of warming and that the passage will likely be possible in future. Can you please clarify?

That said, I'm not sure that what you cite is very convincing either way. Sort of like saying you know a guy that had a good lunch in Mogadishu and that you've flown over the country several times and it looks OK to you.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Delancey

From the linked page - "Arctic sea ice extent for November was the 9th lowest in the satellite record. Through 2014, the linear rate of decline for November extent over the satellite record is 4.7% per decade."

Since 4:00 am, the linear trend in temperature has seen a rapid increase. In another few days we are all going to die.

Here in the Southern Hemisphere, the linear trend since July has seen a rapid increase. In another few months we are all going to die.





Climate trends are NOT linear over any reasonably long period and using them to extrapolate future conditions is completely unjustifiable.

[hpeer]

PDF so I can't paste it.

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVC...0007986563.pdf

Hudson Bay historical Ice Coverage 1981 to 2014.

Kinda looks like a trend to me.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...rian-nonsense/

https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

http://www.alternet.org/story/149101...ments_debunked

http://billmoyers.com/2014/05/16/eig...al-scientists/

And here is what is behind the arguments

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial

[rognvald]

David,
I think what most of us would like to know who want to sail Arctic waters is how do we separate the Science from the Politics. The earth is nearly 5 billion years old and has witnessed uncountable climate changes. The last Little Ice Age in the late 14th Century forced the Viking colonies in Greenland to abandon their settlements and return to Norway and Iceland. 10,000 years BP there was a land bridge that connected the Old World to the New World. Can we validate an objective Science without Politics? And, as a request to the Moderators, please do not close a serious discussion that is relevant to many of us on this Forum. Science does not have to be controversial unless it is unsupported by the facts. Can we present the facts based upon Science and further this important discussion?

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by rognvald

David,
I think what most of us would like to know who want to sail Arctic waters is how do we separate the Science from the Politics. The earth is nearly 5 billion years old and has witnessed uncountable climate changes. The last Little Ice Age in the late 14th Century forced the Viking colonies in Greenland to abandon their settlements and return to Norway and Iceland. 10,000 years BP there was a land bridge that connected the Old World to the New World. Can we validate an objective Science without Politics? And, as a request to the Moderators, please do not close a serious discussion that is relevant to many of us on this Forum. Science does not have to be controversial unless it is unsupported by the facts. Can we present the facts based upon Science and further this important discussion?

I think we can all agree that that the seasonal retreat of summer ice in the arctic is something that is going to vary from year to year, and that any predictions about what it's going to do year to year for the next say five years should be regarded with skepticism. As far as the long term trend is concerned, cruisers can educate themselves on the science elsewhere and make their own predictions. They certainly should not make plans based on opinions they find on cruisers forum.com, one way or the other.

It would be nice if we could have a civil discussion about it here, but the science is complex and difficult to summarize. I'm not optimistic that any discourse here on the topic won't devolve into a political one.