Nuka Hiva to Hawaii...go or no

[Eder]

We were going to leave Nuka Hiva for Hawaii tomorrow but windy shows a bright red spot moving West above the ITCZ.


3 of us are debating whether to boot it or not. I voted no...


Thoughts?

[Tillsbury]

Will you have weather forecasting when you're under way? It's not predicted to be there for well over a week so if you have the ability you could set off and then hold back if it's coming too fast or if you're not making the mileage in time?

[Eder]

We'll have my wife using the inreach to text us windy.com predictions for our weather,

[Montanan]

Reference:

Tropical Storm Alvin projected track is below.

The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH

http://https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo...n=cpac&fdays=5

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Thu Jun 27 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kino

[Eder]

This actually looks reassuring...thanks.
We are staying a few extra days before departure to confirm the shift to the North.

[Streetcar]

I spent four cyclone seasons in tropical south pacific (and a few in the Caribbean) and now appreciate the importance of understanding the uncertainty in forecasts from these models.

When you're using Windy you can toggle between GFS model and European (EMCWF) model forecasts at any time in the future. These are both pretty good models, although some say the EMCWF is better... But at the end of the day each model can only pick one particular future out of all plausible candidates.

If both models give a pretty close picture of the future then I would assume that there is a higher level of confidence in the forecast.

If they're different then that would signal a warning to me that there's a good chance that the models are not picking a future with high certainty. In this case I would be assuming that all reasonable outcomes should be on the table.

Good luck and stay safe

[Time2Go]

Originally Posted by Eder

We'll have my wife using the inreach to text us windy.com predictions for our weather,

Last year I did the exact same thing to provide
weather info for friends sailing west from Panama
to Australia.
I suggest using both models available on Windy AND
NOAA Marine Radio Fax charts that are available on line
at tgftp.nws.noaa.gov
also South Pacific Tropical Products at
ssd.noaa.gov
Something to consider is that after lots of testing
we switched from Inreach to Go and used Email
We found it just to difficult to paint a complete picture
when limited by character limit of the Inreach
Helpful to also get your wife the Planning chart
for your passage. Helps with the big picture
Cheers
Neil

[roverhi]

Sailed to the Marquesas from SD and sailed to Hawaii from the Tuamotus in June. Tropical storms that breed in the Gulf of Panama almost never go south of 10N and usually stay south of 20N till very close or past highway. Just keep an eye on what's happening in the Gulf and any storms that head west. Bore holes in the ocean below 10N if there is any significant activity you want to avoid till the weather passes.

On the trip South had a cat III hurricane develop in the Gulf and head west as we neared 20N. We were doing 150 mile days so decided to continue on in front of the storm. Of course the wind began to die as soon as we made the decision dropping our daily runs to under 100nmpd after a couple of days. Still, by the time the storms fringe effects began to show up, we were below 10N and only saw some confused seas.

[Paul L]

I certainly wouldn't head out with both models showing a closed low deeping in the next week. Why not let it peter out first?

[Minggat]

Weather aside, I have to ask. Why do you want to go there?

Take that as a warning.

Hawaii doesn’t really have a cruising community. The state government sees you as riff
raff, and has lots of hoops for you to jump through. The inter island sailing can be brutal. The homeless population is huge.

Sorry to sound so negative. Of course there are good things about Hawaii. But it’s easy to get trapped there too.

Great place to fly into and be a tourist. Not a great cruising destination.

[category4jay]

Originally Posted by Minggat

Weather aside, I have to ask. Why do you want to go there?

Take that as a warning.

Hawaii doesn’t really have a cruising community. The state government sees you as riff
raff, and has lots of hoops for you to jump through. The inter island sailing can be brutal. The homeless population is huge.

Sorry to sound so negative. Of course there are good things about Hawaii. But it’s easy to get trapped there too.

Great place to fly into and be a tourist. Not a great cruising destination.

Interesting......I’ve never heard this before. I guess I’ll have to go find out in person.

[Eder]

Looks like we delay departure till Tuesday unless more stuff shows up...might be another hurricane developing behind this one.
Lots of good advice here thanks all.
We are going to Hawaii as medical issues dictate bringing the boat back to Canada...Hawaii is otw and we hope to use her there till next year.

[Montanan]

As of Tuesday morning Hurricane Barbara rapidly intensified from a tropical storm on Monday to a Category 4 storm within 24 hours.

Hurricane Barbara rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane Tuesday morning.
Some additional intensification is possible.
Barbara is expected to begin to weaken by Wednesday.
It may pass near Hawaii next week as a much weaker system.

[Montanan]

Soon after becoming the Eastern Pacific's first major hurricane of the season, Barbara reached Category 4 status on Tuesday and teetered near Category 5 strength Wednesday morning.

On Monday, Barbara quickly became the first hurricane of the 2019 season in the Eastern Pacific and is now a monster hurricane running loose over the open waters of the basin just 24 hours after it was a tropical storm.

Essentially, Tropical Storm Alvin, which was late to form as the first storm of the season in the East Pacific, helped to pave the way for Barbara and pull a plume of tropical moisture farther north from the equatorial region.

This created an ideal environment for a tropical storm to ramp up quickly through hurricane rankings.

Barbara 3 pm


Barbara came close to becoming the third earliest Category 5 hurricane to form in the Eastern Pacific during the satellite era, according to the National Hurricane Center. The earliest was Ava in 1973 and Celia in 2010. Ava became a Category 5 hurricane on June 7, and Celia strengthened into a Category 5 on June 25.

A Category 5 hurricane is the most powerful tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale.

Barbara's northwesterly track will bring the hurricane into progressively cooler waters well east of Hawaii through this weekend, leading to weakening.

"We believe that Barbara has peaked in strength and we expect Barbara to weaken to a tropical storm on Friday and then become a non-tropical storm this weekend," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

Maximum sustained winds around Barbara's eye were estimated at 155 mph and just 2 mph below that of Category 5 strength early Wednesday morning local time. Since, then it is estimated that maximum winds have slipped to 145 mph, but that is still a solid Category 4 hurricane.

Barbara is likely to remain a major hurricane, at least Category 3 strength, into Wednesday night.

Waters are warmer than average around Hawaii, but they are not be warm enough to sustain a tropical storm, let alone a hurricane at this point of the season.


Even so, Barbara, as a disturbance, is likely to bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of Hawaii from Monday night to Wednesday of next week.

Residents and visitors on the islands should monitor the progress of Barbara.

[Gudgeon]

Just as a note the first Transpac start is July 10, expect boats to arrive Honolulu around the 19th. Getting a slip in the Ala Wai harbor will be difficult. Most clubs are asking the transients to leave by the 10th.
Barbara is weakening and expect to be a remnant low before crossing in to the central pacific.