I wouldn't bet the farm on the prediction - it hasn't been too reflective of reality in recent years. I won't bother to quote today's Florida papers in which there is a prediction which completely contradicts it.
I think we all know a prediction really is nothing to bet on....I would be hard pressed to bet a hundred bucks on a weather prediction never mind the farm
Also I heard the NOAA prediction for the Atlantic is not good but being a different ocean that is not too surprising.
There is also some speculation that they may be some effects of the oil slicks upon heatingparts of the Gulf. Its probably nothing that would increase storm activity.