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Old 15-06-2022, 09:31   #1
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Study Concluding # Hurricanes in 1900/2000s Below Average

Interesting study of blue holes.

https://hakaimagazine.com/news/blue-...odtHEvmA-UkW8Y
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Old 15-06-2022, 10:52   #2
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Re: Study Concluding # Hurricanes in 1900/2000s Below Average

The study:
“Intense Hurricane Activity Over the Past 1500 Years at South Andros Island, The Bahamas” ~ by E. J. Wallace et al [October 19, 2019]
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2019PA003665

See also:
“Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (The Bahamas) over the last 700 years” ~ by Tyler S. Winkler et al (October 6, 2020 )
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7538955/
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Old 15-06-2022, 11:15   #3
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Re: Study Concluding # Hurricanes in 1900/2000s Below Average

Very interesting study, explains the number of storms reported by sailors from that era when tracking storms like today was impossible.

A couple problems with that study though.

Measuring hurricanes that hit that exact spot the blue hole is located, while you can assume it is proportional to the total hurricanes worldwide, it isn't a certainty as hurricane paths follow patterns just like hurricane frequency.

It is possible that due to North Atlantic temperatures the Atlantic high those years was exactly the size needed to steer hurricanes to that blue hole.

It would be interesting to try to corelate global temperatures those years to the observed hurricane deposits.
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Old 15-06-2022, 15:27   #4
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Re: Study Concluding # Hurricanes in 1900/2000s Below Average

Quote:
Originally Posted by capn_billl View Post
Measuring hurricanes that hit that exact spot the blue hole is located, while you can assume it is proportional to the total hurricanes worldwide, it isn't a certainty as hurricane paths follow patterns just like hurricane frequency.

It is possible that due to North Atlantic temperatures the Atlantic high those years was exactly the size needed to steer hurricanes to that blue hole.
.
Reminds me of "one Yamal bristlecone pine"
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Old 16-06-2022, 01:25   #5
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Re: Study Concluding # Hurricanes in 1900/2000s Below Average

Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM View Post
Reminds me of "one Yamal bristlecone pine"
Because of their longevity [4800 years], and growth at high elevations, where the growth of trees is generally known to be limited by temperature, bristlecone pines have been of particular interest to dendroclimatologists, in reconstructng past climate, from tree rings. Tree rings, from ancient bristlecone pines, are a remarkable proxy for climate, extending back thousands of years.


Stu is probably referring to the old [2009?] “climategate” claims that Dr. Keith Briffa [and others] manipulated [“Keith’s Science trick"] tree ring data, in about 2000, to [falsly] support Michael Mann’s “Hockey Stick” paper.
Stephen McIntyre wrote that Briffa’s data, ultimately, came down to a single bristlecone pine tree [YAD061], calling it “the most influential tree in the world”.

If you'd read the linked papers, we are discussing, you'd know that the authors make it clear that their observations refer to hurricnes within a specific distance [50 - 75 miles, IIRC], from the blue holes.
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Old 16-06-2022, 04:53   #6
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Re: Study Concluding # Hurricanes in 1900/2000s Below Average

Maybe all that have changed is the paths hurricanes take since the sediment in the blue is only recording ones within 75km of it.
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Old 16-06-2022, 11:33   #7
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Re: Study Concluding # Hurricanes in 1900/2000s Below Average

Quote:
Originally Posted by capn_billl View Post
Very interesting study, explains the number of storms reported by sailors from that era when tracking storms like today was impossible.

A couple problems with that study though.

Measuring hurricanes that hit that exact spot the blue hole is located, while you can assume it is proportional to the total hurricanes worldwide, it isn't a certainty as hurricane paths follow patterns just like hurricane frequency.

It is possible that due to North Atlantic temperatures the Atlantic high those years was exactly the size needed to steer hurricanes to that blue hole.

It would be interesting to try to corelate global temperatures those years to the observed hurricane deposits.
If you read the study instead of the abstract you would have seen that the issue of spacial variability as well as temporal variabilty was discussed at length, including presenting the results of similar studies from other locations.
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