Janet,
First let me say that I'm basing my
advice on having sailed from Virginia to the
BVI three times and from St Thomas to the
Bahamas & Virginia once, and St Thomas to
Florida once. But even though we departed from a more northern port, I believe that some general principles apply if departing from the SE U.S. coast...
1. Watch the weather to see when the next frontal
passage will occur.
2. Get safely across the Gulf Stream in the light SE to S winds that precede the front, motor-sailing due East, if necessary.
3. Ride the W/NW/N/NE winds that accompany and follow the front. Even if the winds are strong and gusty (35-45 kts) you'll be OK since they'll be behind the beam.
4.Watch the GRIBs and WEFax
charts to plan how much southing you can get while you're getting in as much easting as possible. Do this and adjust twice a day if possible. Have someone aboard dedicated to accumulating and analyzing the weather data and applying it to routing decisions.
5. Motorsail when the front blows out, unless you're lucky enough to have it blow you through the Horse Latitudes into the Tradewind belt.
Your proposed aiming point close to
Bermuda before turning south (the yellow line, below) is the "conventional wisdom", but in recent years most of the hundreds of
boats in the
Caribbean 1500 and many non-participants have sailed close to or just above the Rhumbline from Virginia to the
BVI (the red line). That has been our experience as well, and we experienced the frontal passages described above and were able to take advantage of them.
The point I'm trying to make is that if you can ride a front/motor-sail out to about 29.7N 68.7W (the green line), you can lay a course to
St Martin and make it on a close reach, if the weather is "typical". Of course, Mother Nature is famous for throwing curve balls in the weather department, so you could see some weather that might force a different plan (better or worse), but that's why you need to have reliable access to weather forecasts throughout your passage. Note that sailing the green line vs. the yellow would save you a couple of days.
Another possibility is to link up with Herb Hilgenberg via
SSB or hire a professional weather router to create a plan for you and to send updates via
email or sat
phone.
Hope this makes sense...
.