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Old 01-11-2021, 17:01   #106
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivory View Post
Anyone familiar with financial charts and trading would be terrified of putting money in the stock market right now....



The retail traders might be popping bubbly and thinking times are great, the more experienced traders are putting on their parachutes haha.



I don't care if there is another leg or two up. At this point it's just WAYYYYY too risky.
Leaving aside the hyperbole (there are many, many experienced investors who eagerly bought stocks today and will again tomorrow etc.), you asked for thoughts. Compared to currency, gold is easier to hide on a boat, harder to exchange when needed. In many out-of-the-way cruising locations, trying to exchange gold could easily bring the wrong type of attention.

The OP ceded that it's typically illegal to bring this size of monetary equivalent into most countries. While risk of detection may be lower than currency, it's not zero. Doesn't take a genius to figure out what happens if you do get caught. Only upside is the consequence would be less severe than being caught with drugs or guns.

So the decision is whether someone thinks the risk of global catastrophe is greater than either getting caught by the authorities, or mugged (or worse) trying to hide, protect, and exchange gold. Global financial catastrophes where gold is an effective safe harbor are rare. Mugging and robbery are not. Very personal decision. You're not alone: some cultures have been expecting imminent events for the last 3000 years.

Good luck

Peter
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Old 01-11-2021, 18:08   #107
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by mvweebles View Post
There are a couple ways to invest in Gold. You can hold the asset via jewelry, bullion, Krugerrands etc. Or you can purchase an ETF such as GLD.
Nov 2011 Nov 2022
Kruger'd $1900 $1870
GLD $167.54 $167.38
Gold $1719 $1794
S&P $1226.46 $4613.67

So, while you're waiting for the world to end, the clock is ticking. If I remember, the OP talked about stowing $40k in gold. After 10-years, he would have kept up with inflation and have $40k in gold (vs $32k in USD if he had converted to currency).

However, the opportunity costs of buring gold in your bilge are steep. if he had put the $40k in an S&P index fund, he would either have (1) $150,000 today; or (2) an average of around $500/month for the cruising kitty.

That's a lot to give up for something that has a very, very low probability of happening - there are 230+ countries in the world, with the US being about the strongest economically. There is always a scenario where something bad happens - just need to make a best guess of impact and probability. If the home-country were Greece in 2008, I'd say probability is fairly high. US in 2021? I just don't see it -

Good luck - hope you achieve your dreams. But please, give the above some thought - chance of running out of money due to poor investment strategy is signicicant. Black Swan event is not.

Peter
and by the same toke:
Nov 2011 Nov 2022
Kruger'd $1900 $1870
GLD $167.54 $167.38
Gold $1719 $1794
S&P $1226.46 $4613.67
Bitcoin $2.26 $61,093.00


"However, the opportunity costs of buring gold in your bilge are steep. if he had put the $40k in" Bitcoin he would have $2,443,720,000.
That is two BILLION, four hundred forty three MILLION, Seven hundred twenty thousand.

Hindsight speculation is just that, speculation.

M
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Old 01-11-2021, 18:34   #108
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by captmikem View Post
and by the same toke:


Nov 2011 Nov 2022
Kruger'd $1900 $1870

GLD $167.54 $167.38

Gold $1719 $1794

S&P $1226.46 $4613.67

Bitcoin $2.26 $61,093.00





"However, the opportunity costs of buring gold in your bilge are steep. if he had put the $40k in" Bitcoin he would have $2,443,720,000.

That is two BILLION, four hundred forty three MILLION, Seven hundred twenty thousand.



Hindsight speculation is just that, speculation.



M
You're right. Investing in equities is a fools errand.

All you cruisers who retired young with well-funded 401K accounts delivering 11%-12% avg per annum should liquidate immediately and buy gold. Even though you've tripled your portfolio over the last 10 years and gold has been stagnant, heed the words of preppers: the end is near. Sell, sell, sell - buy gold!

Peter.
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Old 01-11-2021, 23:24   #109
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

Seriously, have anyone of followed the cigarette prices around the world. Buy cigarettes, the most secure way to have your funds protected and growing in value. Besides it's easy to exchange for goods everywhere in the world
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Old 02-11-2021, 00:48   #110
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
The chart just shows cumulative inflation over a century. So what? That chart will look different if it showed cumulative value taking into consideration interest earned as a bank deposit, and totally different again if invested in the stock market.
I thought my point with the chart would be clear: fiat currency devalues with inflation. You can’t take shares with you on a boat and pay in a shop and bank interest (if stupid enough to keep it in a bank account) is negative.

On the other hand, in that same graph, gold would have kept its value. In the time of Napoleon, one ounce of gold would buy a man the finest clothes and so it does today. I know I got that wrong from memory but there’s a saying fron someone like that

Quote:
No one advocates holding wealth long term in cash.
A whole bunch in this thread do…

Quote:
That's almost as stupid as holding all wealth in gold (but not nearly as stupid as holding all your wealth in crypto).
The simple rules of thumb are max. 20% of wealth in commodities and 5% in crypto as a hedge against events where computers/Internet survive, which is the most likely scenario.

Quote:
You are missing one extremely important point in all of this -- scarcity by itself does not make something valuable. You of all people should know about the Dutch tulip bubble of the 1600's.
I didn’t miss that, I wrote “limited supply”. As long as gold or crypto can’t be reproduced it has that value. Mind you, do can make diamonds now so that option is gone.

Quote:
crypto almost certainly will not, since its prices are driven by speculators playing around with small percentages of their portfolios, who are unlikely to be in a playful mood in case of a black swan event.
Yes, speculation creates wild swings in valuation, but there is still that basevalue that will hold and be immune from inflation.


Quote:
A silo full of grain, or a warehouse full of MRE's, is likely to be the best asset to be holding during a real black swan event and total meltdown of civilization.
All commodities and spread is always better than all eggs in one basket. Ammunition, meds etc. all in that same category.

Skills is another one. Being able to do something others can’t but need to have done.
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Old 02-11-2021, 01:29   #111
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
I thought my point with the chart would be clear: fiat currency devalues with inflation.

Everyone knows this.



Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
You can’t take shares with you on a boat and pay in a shop and bank interest (if stupid enough to keep it in a bank account) is negative.

Stupid enought to keep in a bank? What? Where else would you keep it? In your sock? Seriously?


Shares you certainly can bring to the shop -- they are in your trading account in your phone app which is in your pocket. Trade in and out of whatever shares as you need. Keep a month or two of spending in a liquid currency account. Simples.



Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
. . .

On the other hand, in that same graph, gold would have kept its value. In the time of Napoleon, one ounce of gold would buy a man the finest clothes and so it does today. I know I got that wrong from memory but there’s a saying fron someone like that

Only compared to hoarded cash. But dollars or euros can be put in interest bearing accounts; physical gold cannot. And gold goes up and down in value, not necessarily hedging inflation:



Click image for larger version

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This is an inflation-adjusted chart -- gold price in constant value dollars. If gold were a good hedge against inflation, then this chart would be a straight line. As you see, it's not. There have been some good periods, but also some bad periods lasting decades. Gold spikes up in value on the mood when inflation is starting (so perhaps a good investment right now, but in the short term), but over longer periods is stagnant or losing, and may be losing value compared to inflation even for decades at a time.



This is gold compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the last 100 years:


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That's a real loser.


Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
. . . A whole bunch in this thread do…

I doubt that anyone with "wealth" beyond maybe a year of spending, keeps it in hoarded cash or gold. That would be exceedingly foolish.


Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
The simple rules of thumb are max. 20% of wealth in commodities and 5% in crypto as a hedge against events where computers/Internet survive, which is the most likely scenario.

Those are reasonable proportions, but what makes you think crypto will have value just because computers and Internet are working, after a black swan event and general economic meltdown? It is just as likely that crypto will be worthless because no one is playing with it anymore, after such an event. Gold would be much better for such a case than crypto.


Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
. . . I didn’t miss that, I wrote “limited supply”. As long as gold or crypto can’t be reproduced it has that value. Mind you, do can make diamonds now so that option is gone.

This is incorrect. Scarcity by itself does not make something valuable. Economics 101.


I think a professor of mine years ago illustrated the point like this: There is a limited supply of dog crap in the world. If all the dogs were suddenly to disappear tomorrow, dog crap would suddenly become very scarce. However, we can be sure that the price of dog crap would NOT suddenly skyrocket.


The Dutch Tulip bubble is another really good illustration of the principle.


Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
. . . Yes, speculation creates wild swings in valuation, but there is still that basevalue that will hold and be immune from inflation.

Gold has a "base value" because there is a base level of demand for it -- it is an actual physical commodity which has industrial uses. Whether that "base value" is inherently more than that of, say, lead, is hard to say, but certainly there is demand for gold beyond mere speculation. Gold will NOT however be necessarily "immune" from inflation (the above chart showed gold underperforming inflation for periods of decades at a time). And non-stablecoin crypto has no "base value" of any kind.


Quote:
Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
. . .All commodities and spread is always better than all eggs in one basket. Ammunition, meds etc. all in that same category.

Skills is another one. Being able to do something others can’t but need to have done.

Here I agree with you. Diversification is Investment 101. And marketable skills is kind of Life 101, isn't it? Principles which will hold even during black swan events.
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Old 02-11-2021, 01:50   #112
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by Caleb_Grey View Post
Wow lots of ignorance in here.
Having gold is not for buying dinner, or bartering when the shtf, its a safe bet for holding value for after the collapse and new governments form new economies and currency.
Have fun picking your teeth with your mastercards and atms, thats all they will be good for.
At least you can wipe your ass with your wads of singles.
If society collapses, you want food and bullets....maybe an escape plan but to where.

If a new govt forms, no guarantee, you get to keep the gold. The russian nobility didn't do so well when the tsars went out of style.
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Old 02-11-2021, 01:56   #113
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by Ivory View Post
Apparently over 10k in money you have to declare in many countries. But what about hidden gold or silver you are saving on your boat? Or jewels and jewelry making supplies (so gold wire and things like that).
Actually, it's cash or "cash equivalents" and it's darn near every country that has some version of the rule.

Now if it's reasonable, they will typically ignore your wife's wedding ring but bullion, will be considered an equivalent.

If you have $50k in jewelry making supplies, you will likely be called out for smuggling as that looks a lot like you were operating something commercial without a work visa and commercial business license.

Remember, in most countries, if you don't declare, they simply take it...end of story. No need to file charges or anything else. It's just gone.
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Old 02-11-2021, 02:17   #114
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by MicHughV View Post
Interestingly...back in the day...my day, that is, one carried American Express Traveller's Checks in US dollar currency. They were accepted pretty much anywhere.

Plastic credit cards weren't yet a thing then. ATM's were non-existent.

You wanted cash, you went to a bank and cashed a Traveller's Check..I even used Traveller's checks to pay for goods, restaurants,etc, and would get my change back in cash.

Sadly, I can't recall the last time I saw a Traveller's check, but you alway knew how much you had left to spend.
I know exactly what I have to spend down to the penny. It's not rocket science to check your bank balance (heck that evil ATM usually puts it on the receipt...though you may have to convert back to your preferred currency).

No need for outdated traveler's checks. It's probably been 30yrs since traveler's checks made any sense. As you said, in the days before credit cards and ATMs, it was far easier than trying to have family wire you money but those days are long gone.

Gold bullion was never a good plan.
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Old 02-11-2021, 02:20   #115
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by Caleb_Grey View Post
Wow lots of ignorance in here.
Having gold is not for buying dinner, or bartering when the shtf, its a safe bet for holding value for after the collapse and new governments form new economies and currency.
Have fun picking your teeth with your mastercards and atms, thats all they will be good for.
At least you can wipe your ass with your wads of singles.
These types of statements are so so ludicrous as to make one question the sanity of the writer.

You think , in the nature of a crash as you envisage , you are going to “ stride into town” with gold and all will be ok !!

“ new gov edict day 1 “ , all gold is illegal , forfeiture is mandatory

Good luck using that gold inside some gaol
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Old 02-11-2021, 02:23   #116
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
It’s shocking to find that people think gold, or any commodity that has a limited supply, will go worthless together with fiat currency. On the other hand, someone will have to pay the price when the shtf, so I guess there’s that.
Who said it would go worthless?
- If society continues to function, it will have value but so will fiat currency and fiat currency will likely be far more usable.
- If society collapse, then it may have some value in the long term but getting thru the initial chaos...not so much when it's food an bullets that represent value.
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Old 02-11-2021, 02:28   #117
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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I know, it’s always the Russians, Chinese or terrorists with dirty bombs… but the only ones who actually nuked an enemy is the US. Dirty bombs… like depleted uranium ammunitions leaving scores of victims? Now who would do such horrible things… (governments rape us until there nothing left to squeeze out)
Simple, don't launch a surprise attack on the US followed by all out war filled with atrocities and don't get nuked.

Honestly, none of the big players are likely to start anything. The Old MAD plan. It's the terrorist getting ahold of stuff that is worrying.

Really the whole subject in terms of hiding bullion on your boat is just getting silly.
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Old 02-11-2021, 02:56   #118
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Everyone knows this.
I can ensure you that they don’t. Americans are much more knowledgeable on wealth accumulation and preservation than Europeans. People still open a savings account with first deposit in it for a newborn.

Quote:
Stupid enought to keep in a bank? What? Where else would you keep it? In your sock? Seriously?
Well… I keep very little cash. The rest is in investment accounts; if not in stocks or bonds, then in money market or “good as cash” options like LQD ETF. Then there’s crypto currency, kept in hardware wallets.

Quote:
Shares you certainly can bring to the shop -- they are in your trading account in your phone app which is in your pocket. Trade in and out of whatever shares as you need. Keep a month or two of spending in a liquid currency account. Simples.
But you can’t transfer the shares to the account of a shop owner, i.e. like I wrote literally: you can’t pay with it in the shop.

Quote:
Only compared to hoarded cash. But dollars or euros can be put in interest bearing accounts; physical gold cannot. And gold goes up and down in value, not necessarily hedging inflation:
When you put cash into stocks, bonds, deposits etc., you don’t have that cash anymore, you are investing it. Of course investment is good. I’m sure you know this but for those who read this and wonder how to preserve wealth:

- put 20% in real estate, physical or investment funds like VNQ
- put 20% in US stock market, divide over Nasdaq, S&P500 etc., not just Apple or Coca Cola.
- put 20% in World stock market, both developed and emerging markets.
- put 20% in bonds
- put 20% in commodities; spread over many items, incl. precious metals, basic materials etc. This includes physical gold, mre’s, ammo, crypto etc. Never put more than 5% in any of those categories, i.e. not more than 5% in cash or crypto.

A schedule like that is very tough. It is how large pension funds etc. do it.


Quote:
This is an inflation-adjusted chart -- gold price in constant value dollars. If gold were a good hedge against inflation, then this chart would be a straight line. As you see, it's not. There have been some good periods, but also some bad periods lasting decades. Gold spikes up in value on the mood when inflation is starting (so perhaps a good investment right now, but in the short term), but over longer periods is stagnant or losing, and may be losing value compared to inflation even for decades at a time.
Just like with crypto currency, the valuation of gold is being manipulated by speculators, governments and, in my view, scammers. This is why many point out to get physical gold and keep it in your own, private safe. Scammers are selling gold certificates without the backing of physical gold. Big funds like GLD, but also the Federal Reserve, refuse public inventory.

Governments keep price of gold low for political reasons. Other governments counter that by taking advantage of low prices by accumulating large amounts (Russia, China). They also try to prevent each other from accessing their gold. The past decade, most nations moved their gold reserves to their own territory while before, they spread it over the world to keep it away from invaders. The Netherlands has moved all its gold from NYC, London etc. first to temporary vaults in the Netherlands while building the permanent ones… that much expediency was deemed necessary. Other nations, like Venezuela, have lost control over their own gold.

It doesn’t just happen with gold: US forces are still occupying Syrian oil fields. Big political games are played with all commodities, even grains, natural gas, lumber, coal etc.

Quote:
I doubt that anyone with "wealth" beyond maybe a year of spending, keeps it in hoarded cash or gold. That would be exceedingly foolish.
They do. When interest rates were 3.5% or more, I did that as well.

Quote:
Those are reasonable proportions, but what makes you think crypto will have value just because computers and Internet are working, after a black swan event and general economic meltdown? It is just as likely that crypto will be worthless because no one is playing with it anymore, after such an event. Gold would be much better for such a case than crypto.
It seems you have a bias against crypto. I recommend you read more into blockchain technology and how it is designed to withstand everything that a wad of cash in hand can withstand, except it is also immune to inflation just like gold. It truly is a gift to mankind from a genius.

Quote:
This is incorrect. Scarcity by itself does not make something valuable. Economics 101.
I think you take that skewed to where it isn’t supposed to. The examples with dog cr@p is funny but flawed because there -are- dogs making more plus it is not an accepted method of payment.

Quote:
The Dutch Tulip bubble is another really good illustration of the principle.
It is and that is exactly why the example is irrelevant to crypto. The tulip bulbs were a fashion item and monopolized by Holland (like nutmeg, opium etc.) but there was not a fixed limited supply: the tulips could reproduce, more opium can be made. You can not make more gold or more bitcoin. We may mine gold from asteroids but not Bitcoin so it’s even better.

I was wary of crypto as well and ignorant on blockchain technology that goes much further, like the contracts in Ethereum. Banks and governments are very worried, because these -will- set the people free.
Check out the FIRE community as well. There’s hope for the new generations and some get it.
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Old 02-11-2021, 03:17   #119
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

The book , trustee from the tool room ,by Neville Schutte Norway ,is a good read on the same vein ,but all the same have used HARD cash in the western Solomon’s in the early 1970 ,verry welcome,.⚓️⛵️
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Old 02-11-2021, 04:00   #120
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

Let’s not forget this. Where does this fit into the graphs?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...World-War.html



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