Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

[Ivory]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The value of a currency as a repository of value depends on stability

How is fiat anywhere close to stable?....

Before it was taken off the gold standard it had far more stability, but now we are seeing prices of everything run away.

[MicHughV]

um....at the end of the day....
you arrive in this world with nothing....and you'll leave it with nothing.

[mvweebles]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

A reserve currency doesn’t mean it is easy to exchange to other currencies. It means that it is used by governments for their foreign exchange reserves, which are out of reach for cruising sailors

There’s a bunch of reserve currencies… many before the usd even existed and today the Euro, Yen and even Chinese Yuan are used as well.

Gold, crypto currency and other limited availability resources are primarily used for wealth conservation, as a hedge against inflation. If you use that good ole reserve currency of the world instead, you end up like the attached chart shows

USD is considered the World's Reserve Currency. If Saudi Arabia sells a barrel of oil to a buyer in France, the transaction will most likely be valued in USD, not Euros, not Dinars. But greenbacks. Why? Neither party wants to incur currency/ForEx risk. USD is the lowest risk.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r...vecurrency.asp

Peter

[mvweebles]

Originally Posted by Ivory

How is fiat anywhere close to stable?....

Before it was taken off the gold standard it had far more stability, but now we are seeing prices of everything run away.

There are a couple ways to invest in Gold. You can hold the asset via jewelry, bullion, Krugerrands etc. Or you can purchase an ETF such as GLD.

Nov 2011 Nov 2022

Kruger'd $1900 $1870
GLD $167.54 $167.38
Gold $1719 $1794
S&P $1226.46 $4613.67

So, while you're waiting for the world to end, the clock is ticking. If I remember, the OP talked about stowing $40k in gold. After 10-years, he would have kept up with inflation and have $40k in gold (vs $32k in USD if he had converted to currency).

However, the opportunity costs of buring gold in your bilge are steep. if he had put the $40k in an S&P index fund, he would either have (1) $150,000 today; or (2) an average of around $500/month for the cruising kitty.

That's a lot to give up for something that has a very, very low probability of happening - there are 230+ countries in the world, with the US being about the strongest economically. There is always a scenario where something bad happens - just need to make a best guess of impact and probability. If the home-country were Greece in 2008, I'd say probability is fairly high. US in 2021? I just don't see it -

Good luck - hope you achieve your dreams. But please, give the above some thought - chance of running out of money due to poor investment strategy is signicicant. Black Swan event is not.

Peter

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Ivory

How is fiat anywhere close to stable?....

Before it was taken off the gold standard it had far more stability, but now we are seeing prices of everything run away.

No, we're not. We're seeing a spike in inflation to what, 4.5%? From 1% or 2%? We've had double digit inflation in the dollarized world what, once in the last 250 years?

You think that's not stable compared to this?



Up and down by tens of percent over days? Loss of 50% in a few days?

Give me a break. The best DAY of that, in terms of stability, was worse than the worst YEAR of the USD. Of course, actual numbers mean nothing to true believers.

[zstine]

Originally Posted by Ivory

...
Same with the US dollar, there is factually nothing behind that besides a country saying "we good for it yo". That, in reality, is not value.... that means the "wealth" is just an illusion that everyone is playing around with.
...
So you have an economic system that is basically some random guy grabbing a piece of paper and writing "a billion dollars" on it, then handing it to his friend, and his friend going with that into the market and buying up real things.... inflating basically everything (stocks, property, and so on).
...
This is the very worse thing you could do. Having gold in the bank means you don't have gold....

The US has a history of simply taking all gold you have in the bank and liquidating you.....
.

yes, the value of paper money is an 'illusion' we all agree to and as long as we all play, then it's as real as gold. And you say printing money inflates the value of things like stocks and property. So by that reasoning, wouldn't you want to invest in some tangible things, equities now? Inflation is high now, but my investments and property are increasing in value quicker that inflation.



I don't know what banks you go to, but I have a key and the bank has a key and they cannot get into my safe deposit box without my key or a court order, nor do they know if I have a gold bar or a bubble gum wrapper in my safe box. So your whole "Having gold in a [safe deposit box] means you don't have gold" is just wrong. I'm not worried that banks are going to illegally steal items from peoples personal safe deposit boxes.

[Richard Harper]

Reminds me of one of my favorite books - Trustee from the Toolroom by Nevil Shute

[ChrisJHC]

Originally Posted by zstine

yes, the value of paper money is an 'illusion' we all agree to and as long as we all play, then it's as real as gold. And you say printing money inflates the value of things like stocks and property. So by that reasoning, wouldn't you want to invest in some tangible things, equities now? Inflation is high now, but my investments and property are increasing in value quicker that inflation.



I don't know what banks you go to, but I have a key and the bank has a key and they cannot get into my safe deposit box without my key or a court order, nor do they know if I have a gold bar or a bubble gum wrapper in my safe box. So your whole "Having gold in a [safe deposit box] means you don't have gold" is just wrong. I'm not worried that banks are going to illegally steal items from peoples personal safe deposit boxes.

You might want to read up on “US Private Vaults” before getting too comfortable.

[MicHughV]

So Angela Merkle flies to England to meet up with everybody.
She arrives at the hotel, gives the desk clerk $200 and asks to see her room. The desk clerk gives her the keys and tells her her room is on the 10th floor.
While she is going up the elevator, the desk clerk hurries next door to pay his bookie the $200 he owes him from last nights bet.
The bookie takes the $200 and runs over to the corner to pay off the hooker he was with the previous night.
The hooker takes the $200 and goes to the hotel to pay the hotel clerk the $200 she owes him for allowing here the use of a hotel room while conducting her bizness.
Just then Angela Merkel comes back down stairs, tells the clerk she didn't like the room, takes her $200 and leaves.
Everybody has been paid off, and Angela Merkel has her money back.
And that my friends, is how the economy works.

[flightlead404]

Originally Posted by Ivory

... and looking up the value is pretty simple. ...

If the global economy has crashed that hard do you really think Google and your phone will be working?

[flightlead404]

Originally Posted by captmikem

An excellent read, along the same line is one of my favorites Nevil Shute's Trustee from the Toolroom.

Hope all is well with you two!

M

And the incomparable John D. Macdonald's The Deep Blue Goodbye

(I was disappointed to find no F18 at Bahia Mar)

[flightlead404]

Originally Posted by jmschmidt

Really? Have you ever watched "Locked Up Abroad"? The ten thousand US dollar or more valuation for exporting or importing any kind convertible currency, precious metals or jewels is pretty much a law in nearly country on the planet.
Try exporting or importing $9,999 or say $5,000 worth between you and a traveling partner or anyone who can be connected with you and they will arrest both or you and charge you "structuring," a novel crime invented by treasury officials worldwide.

Its really "layering", "placement", and "integration".

[Ivory]

Originally Posted by mvweebles

There are a couple ways to invest in Gold. You can hold the asset via jewelry, bullion, Krugerrands etc. Or you can purchase an ETF such as GLD.

Nov 2011 Nov 2022

Kruger'd $1900 $1870
GLD $167.54 $167.38
Gold $1719 $1794
S&P $1226.46 $4613.67

So, while you're waiting for the world to end, the clock is ticking. If I remember, the OP talked about stowing $40k in gold. After 10-years, he would have kept up with inflation and have $40k in gold (vs $32k in USD if he had converted to currency).

However, the opportunity costs of buring gold in your bilge are steep. if he had put the $40k in an S&P index fund, he would either have (1) $150,000 today; or (2) an average of around $500/month for the cruising kitty.

That's a lot to give up for something that has a very, very low probability of happening - there are 230+ countries in the world, with the US being about the strongest economically. There is always a scenario where something bad happens - just need to make a best guess of impact and probability. If the home-country were Greece in 2008, I'd say probability is fairly high. US in 2021? I just don't see it -

Good luck - hope you achieve your dreams. But please, give the above some thought - chance of running out of money due to poor investment strategy is signicicant. Black Swan event is not.

Peter

Anyone familiar with financial charts and trading would be terrified of putting money in the stock market right now....

The retail traders might be popping bubbly and thinking times are great, the more experienced traders are putting on their parachutes haha.

I don't care if there is another leg or two up. At this point it's just WAYYYYY too risky.

[captmikem]

Originally Posted by flightlead404

And the incomparable John D. Macdonald's The Deep Blue Goodbye

(I was disappointed to find no F18 at Bahia Mar)

I went there in... probably 1979, looking for the Busted Flush and F18..
Was disappointed as well.

I think I saw someone that looked like Meyer and the John Maynard Kynes though...

M

[Ivory]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Up and down by tens of percent over days? Loss of 50% in a few days?

Give me a break. The best DAY of that, in terms of stability, was worse than the worst YEAR of the USD. Of course, actual numbers mean nothing to true believers.

The price of metals is not the real price of metals....

https://www.reuters.com/article/jp-m...-idINKBN26K325

When the market finally shakes out the reality of metals, you will see a very different price reflected on the charts. ((I'm a lot more bullish on silver, since it's used so heavily in industry and the supply just can't keep up with the demand))