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Old 01-11-2021, 02:28   #76
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IolantheSF View Post
For long term inflation hedges, gold, silver, and a few other heavy metals have proven.

Short term, metals often win against currency during inflationary periods, but long term they always lose.


The best long term inflation hedge is prime real estate leveraged with fixed rate debt, or shares in consumer-facing businesses who have no difficulty raising prices during inflationary periods.



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Originally Posted by IolantheSF View Post
. . . For medium term economic problems, e.g. a friend faced with 6 months unable to work, freeze-dried, dehydrated, canned, etc. are proven.

Which is very expensive compared to fresh food bought at the grocery. Money, not freeze dried food, is the right thing to store against "medium term economic problems".



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. . . Carrying anything valuable across state lines can set you up for Civil Asset Forfeiture. The boys in blue will grab it all, report half of it, and you’ll never get it back. Try it with any kind of weapon and you can spend some time as a guest of the state. Try it crossing national borders, and it can get a whole lot worse. Don’t even think about drugs.


Agree 1000%
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Old 01-11-2021, 05:10   #77
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

Oh gee, the sky is falling (again).

First time I encountered this when I was about 10 years old and people were building fallout shelters and stocking up in case of nuclear war.

Next time I recall was in 1969-70. The counter culture was sure they needed to drop out and stockpile against the takeover by the military-industrial complex. At the same time the other side was doing the same due to the impending radical left revolution.

Then there were a couple more waves of prepping based on imminent, global, financial collapse, hyper inflation or what have you.

Pardon me if I don't get too exited over the prospects of yet another end of the world panic.
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Old 01-11-2021, 05:20   #78
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Pardon me if I don't get too exited over the prospects of yet another end of the world panic.
Why would the world end because the value of silver / gold against the dollar rises??

Did the world end in the 70's when gold went 10x+ over the next decade?

Or did the world end when gold went from 250 to 1800 during the 2000's?

The world will keep on doing as it does.

Hedging against inflation and the dollar with some precious metals isn't a zombie apocalypse.... yeesh, people watch way too many doomsday movies.

This isn't Mad Max... this is just having some metals instead of dollars....
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Old 01-11-2021, 06:05   #79
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

Interestingly...back in the day...my day, that is, one carried American Express Traveller's Checks in US dollar currency. They were accepted pretty much anywhere.

Plastic credit cards weren't yet a thing then. ATM's were non-existent.

You wanted cash, you went to a bank and cashed a Traveller's Check..I even used Traveller's checks to pay for goods, restaurants,etc, and would get my change back in cash.

Sadly, I can't recall the last time I saw a Traveller's check, but you alway knew how much you had left to spend.

These days, one is inundated with credit card offers with huge spending allowances and equally huge interest charged amounts.
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Old 01-11-2021, 06:32   #80
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by Ivory View Post
Why would the world end because the value of silver / gold against the dollar rises??

Did the world end in the 70's when gold went 10x+ over the next decade?

Or did the world end when gold went from 250 to 1800 during the 2000's?

The world will keep on doing as it does.

Hedging against inflation and the dollar with some precious metals isn't a zombie apocalypse.... yeesh, people watch way too many doomsday movies.

This isn't Mad Max... this is just having some metals instead of dollars....
You read so many things incorrectly in my post that I hardly know where to begin.

First, I cannot even fathom how you can take from my comments that buying metals will cause a crisis. That is pretty much reversing the entire concept of cause and effect. Like saying putting up a storm jib will cause a hurricane.
Buying metals is the effect, the end of the world or the worry that it might end is the cause.

Nor did I say nor imply in anyway that there is something inherently wrong in owning gold or silver. I collected coins in my younger days and think gold coins are interesting and attractive. If prices drop and I think about it I might buy some. The point of my comment was solely to point out that buying gold to prep for SHTF/economic collapse/zombie apocalypse or whatever end of the world scenario one subscribes to is a pretty poor bet.

If you have a really good crystal ball then short term gold could be a good investment during one of the occasional panics but as history shows, the spike in prices will soon reverse. And as many have pointed out, it is well established and proven by the numbers that long term gold is a very poor investment.

Want to guard against losing all your investments? Stay away from crazy markets and investment bubbles. Anyone with any sense at all should have seen the real estate bubble in the early-mid 2000s and the inevitable collapse. Same with the tech bubble before that. All just repeats of the tulip mania back in the 1600s.
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Old 01-11-2021, 08:54   #81
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Oh gee, the sky is falling (again).

First time I encountered this when I was about 10 years old and people were building fallout shelters and stocking up in case of nuclear war.
Yes, laughable nuclear war would never happen who would use nuclear weapons during war
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Old 01-11-2021, 09:03   #82
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

It is clear that precious metals and crypto currency’s are being used to speculate and that some people expect to get rich by doing so.

Did the fisherman that bought a gold earring, expect to make a fortune off it? Or was it to pay for his funeral when washed ashore?

Did the commandos and paratroopers get rich from their gold coins given to them when air dropped behind enemy lines? Or was it to buy their way out?

Do governments buy gold to make a healthy profit? Or are they preppers, securing ways to rebuild their economies after the big reset?

It’s shocking to find that people think gold, or any commodity that has a limited supply, will go worthless together with fiat currency. On the other hand, someone will have to pay the price when the shtf, so I guess there’s that.
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Old 01-11-2021, 09:23   #83
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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nk gold, or any commodity that has a limited supply, will go worthless together with fiat currency. On the other hand, someone will have to pay the price when the shtf, so I guess there’s that.
The OP wanted to know if it made sense to carry prescious metals instead of currency. Leaving aside the prepper-esque debates, the answer is fairly simple. USD is the world's reserve currency and, as such, fairly easy to exchange into local currency anywhere in the world. It is, however, subject to inflationary losses, and exchange rates.

Compared to USD currency, Gold has provided a mild hedge against inflation, though is generally a lousy investment compared to all other asset classes except holding hard currency. Gold would be more difficult to convert into local currency and likely would carry substantial transaction fees. On the plus side, it is extremely dense and would not be hard to hide/camoflage small/modest quantities. $20k in gold is probably the size of a few decks of playing cards. $20k in $100-bills is at least the size of a ream of paper and really looks like what it is.

If someone sees gold as a hedge against Black Swan event, there are many that suggest also investing in lead.

Peter
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Old 01-11-2021, 09:41   #84
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Yes, laughable nuclear war would never happen who would use nuclear weapons during war
I'm pretty sure the Dutch are getting ready to bomb the world. We all know what warmongers they are.

On a more serious note, I do think there is greater than zero risk of a terrorist group using a nuclear weapon or more likely setting off a dirty bomb. That would certainly be a huge catastrophe and probably have a major economic impact but don't think it would be the end of civilization as we know it. Then there are some that would say civilization is no longer as we know it anyway.
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Old 01-11-2021, 09:52   #85
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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I'm pretty sure the Dutch are getting ready to bomb the world. We all know what warmongers they are.

On a more serious note, I do think there is greater than zero risk of a terrorist group using a nuclear weapon or more likely setting off a dirty bomb. That would certainly be a huge catastrophe and probably have a major economic impact but don't think it would be the end of civilization as we know it. Then there are some that would say civilization is no longer as we know it anyway.
I know, it’s always the Russians, Chinese or terrorists with dirty bombs… but the only ones who actually nuked an enemy is the US. Dirty bombs… like depleted uranium ammunitions leaving scores of victims? Now who would do such horrible things… (governments rape us until there nothing left to squeeze out)
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Old 01-11-2021, 10:09   #86
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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. . . Want to guard against losing all your investments? Stay away from crazy markets and investment bubbles. Anyone with any sense at all should have seen the real estate bubble in the early-mid 2000s and the inevitable collapse. Same with the tech bubble before that. All just repeats of the tulip mania back in the 1600s.

Exactly!


All this results from the fatal combination of three human weaknesses: (1) greed; (2) wishful thinking; and (3) laziness


1. Someone sees something going up in value.


2. Then concludes that because it goes up in value, it will inevitably continue to go up in value.


3. And neglects to take time to dig into the fundamentals.


1 & 2 form a feedback loop, where the more 2 happens, the more 1 happens. Until one day it becomes unsustainable because no one figured out 3.


This explains most lost money in the world. Bitcoin speculators are the most vivid example of this probably since the 1600's. The magical thinking is spectacular; surrealistic.
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Old 01-11-2021, 10:09   #87
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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I know, it’s always the Russians, Chinese or terrorists with dirty bombs… but the only ones who actually nuked an enemy is the US. Dirty bombs… like depleted uranium ammunitions leaving scores of victims? Now who would do such horrible things… (governments rape us until there nothing left to squeeze out)
Well didn't name any particular terrorist countries. These days it could be a US group as well as any other.

And depleted uranium? Sure, just like military intelligence.
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Old 01-11-2021, 10:14   #88
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by mvweebles View Post
The OP wanted to know if it made sense to carry prescious metals instead of currency. Leaving aside the prepper-esque debates, the answer is fairly simple. USD is the world's reserve currency and, as such, fairly easy to exchange into local currency anywhere in the world. It is, however, subject to inflationary losses, and exchange rates.

Compared to USD currency, Gold has provided a mild hedge against inflation, though is generally a lousy investment compared to all other asset classes except holding hard currency. Gold would be more difficult to convert into local currency and likely would carry substantial transaction fees. On the plus side, it is extremely dense and would not be hard to hide/camoflage small/modest quantities. $20k in gold is probably the size of a few decks of playing cards. $20k in $100-bills is at least the size of a ream of paper and really looks like what it is.

If someone sees gold as a hedge against Black Swan event, there are many that suggest also investing in lead.

Peter
A reserve currency doesn’t mean it is easy to exchange to other currencies. It means that it is used by governments for their foreign exchange reserves, which are out of reach for cruising sailors

There’s a bunch of reserve currencies… many before the usd even existed and today the Euro, Yen and even Chinese Yuan are used as well.

Gold, crypto currency and other limited availability resources are primarily used for wealth conservation, as a hedge against inflation. If you use that good ole reserve currency of the world instead, you end up like the attached chart shows
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Old 01-11-2021, 10:15   #89
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Bitcoin speculators are the most vivid example of this probably since the 1600's. The magical thinking is spectacular; surrealistic.
Quite true and I have studiously avoided crypto currencies.

On the other hand, if I had bought a few hundred in bit coins at the beginning I wouldn't be shopping for a boat, I would own the factory. 20/20 hindsight strikes again.
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Old 01-11-2021, 10:33   #90
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Re: Silver + Gold stacking while cruising?

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Originally Posted by s/v Jedi View Post
A reserve currency doesn’t mean it is easy to exchange to other currencies. It means that it is used by governments for their foreign exchange reserves, which are out of reach for cruising sailors

There’s a bunch of reserve currencies… many before the usd even existed and today the Euro, Yen and even Chinese Yuan are used as well.

Gold, crypto currency and other limited availability resources are primarily used for wealth conservation, as a hedge against inflation. If you use that good ole reserve currency of the world instead, you end up like the attached chart shows
The chart just shows cumulative inflation over a century. So what? That chart will look different if it showed cumulative value taking into consideration interest earned as a bank deposit, and totally different again if invested in the stock market.

No one advocates holding wealth long term in cash. That's almost as stupid as holding all wealth in gold (but not nearly as stupid as holding all your wealth in crypto). Currency of whatever type has two functions -- as a medium of exchange, and as a repository of value. The value of any currency as a medium of exchange depends on how widespread prices are denominated in that currency, and in how well functioning is the system behind that currency for banking and transferring it. Price stability is a key feature of an effective medium of exchange, and that's why central banks manage "fiat" currencies with interest rates and money supply. Volatile currencies in which prices are not widely denominated are useless as a medium of exchange. The value of a currency as a repository of value depends on stability, and interest rates vs risk. Crypto fails on both of these functions.

You are missing one extremely important point in all of this -- scarcity by itself does not make something valuable. You of all people should know about the Dutch tulip bubble of the 1600's.

You want to hedge against a black swan event, you need something of inherent value (NOT something which is merely scarce) and exchangeability. Gold may or may not have value during a black swan event; crypto almost certainly will not, since its prices are driven by speculators playing around with small percentages of their portfolios, who are unlikely to be in a playful mood in case of a black swan event.

A silo full of grain, or a warehouse full of MRE's, is likely to be the best asset to be holding during a real black swan event and total meltdown of civilization.
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