Sailing New England to Australia in February

[hoppy]

It feels to me that there are a few posters who are just waiting for the chance to say "I told you so"

[savoir]

Originally Posted by Oceanride007

No Cookies | Herald Sun

Heres a photo of him and his boat. My image that I gave the coroner.

I think that is him. He was by the bridge and I was by the fuel dock so we were actually a long way apart as the sailor walks, or stumbles depending on the time of day. His boat was old style with a sprit but I only saw it from the ground looking up so my view was limited. He spoke of Tasmania a lot. From there or going to there - not sure. He didn't visit HYC too often meaning I didn't come across him much at night.

I had my own boat issues and once all was well left for Majuro in April.

The only guy from Melbourne that I met in Ala Wai owned a Nordhavn 76. If that was your boat I think you would remember. I sure remember his 6'2" blonde , female Swedish deckhand.

[savoir]

While we wait for news here is one of my better pics from Ala Wai.

[robert sailor]

Originally Posted by tartansail

Big Brother doesn't control them, but, if they fire off their EPIRB (and they bought PLB's as well as an EPIRB) I assume they expect Big Brother to respond. That seems a tad disingenuous. I wish these guys the best and hope they arrive safely, not only for their own sakes, but also for the SAR teams that won't have to put their lives in harm's way.

I hear what your saying and you make a good point. Much of our offshore sailing was done prior to grib files and EPIIRB's so when we left we knew whatever came up we would have to deal with it. Still feel exactly the same way.

[Oceanride007]

Originally Posted by hoppy

It feels to me that there are a few posters who are just waiting for the chance to say "I told you so"

My issue is not that "I know better" but rather that I wasn't clever enough to do more. That fellow "Neil" in Ala Wai had invested so much in a unsuitable vessel, he wasn't going to be deterred by my nitpicking.

Strangely enough had a similar experience months later in Fiji, when I was clever and I talked a NZer out of his voyage, after a huge investment in time and local repair yard that didn't go well, he did agree to fly home for Xmas, bring back an epirb raft etc, he did. That vessel sank anyway on a subsequent trip. He survived. His boat was called shadowfax.

Mistakes are made, but some people are very determined.

[tartansail]

Originally Posted by savoir

If they arrive in Bermuda you would expect it to be sometime on Tuesday.

I wonder if they'll spend today hove to or lying ahull. If so, they may not get to Bermuda until Wednesday. If they've made it to the Gulf Stream the ice should melt off their decks. I'd worry about the weight, otherwise. The wind direction isn't too bad for the Stream in the area they'll cross, but they could be set pretty far East.

[boatman61]

The Hawaii boat looks like a Cheoy Lee 48 to me.. in normal circumstances more than capable of the trip..
As for folk doing this.. its quite common and most make it unannounced.. done it a few times in various boats.. biggest fuss was my H37c in '04 when 'Towndock' in Oriental got wind off me... 'Dead Man Walking' was the general opinion..

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by Oceanride007

No Cookies | Herald Sun

Heres a photo of him and his boat. My image that I gave the coroner.

The boat looks like a Formosa 41 or a CT 41. It also has two masts, not three.

Concerning the sailors in this thread, I hope they make it.

I open this thread hoping to hear nothing about them since any news before Tuesday or Wednesday is likely bad news.

[Jon Eisberg]

Originally Posted by tartansail

FWIW, apparently, they understand that going on deck is lethal. The boat is set up so that they shouldn't have to leave the cockpit.

Right, when freezing spray becomes an issue, there would never be any reason to venture out of the cockpit... Things like roller furling continue to work flawlessly, as ice on deck begins to build up... ;-)

I dunno, even this very light accumulation ultimately required a trip forward with a kettle of hot water to free things up, rather than having to exert excess force to break things free...





Again, it's hard to picture a boat less suitable to deal with what they might be facing... Particularly, with a shorthanded crew, one of whom apparently has minimum sailing experience...

That cockpit is hardly one designed for safety offshore, in heavy weather... Shallow, doesn't even feature any coamings, it might easily be awash frequently in extreme conditions. That boat will do precious little to 'take care of' its crew, but will rather likely require a heavy dose of active management by the crew... Any effort to heave-to will certainly be a challenge, to say the least...





...and with her open transom, a tactic such as lying to a drogue would pose considerable risk... For a fatigued crew, keeping that boat on her feet could leave little margin for error... Certainly, boats of similar design have come thru appalling conditions seen in Sydney-Hobarts and such, but managing such storms with a full race crew is a different ballgame. The saving grace in such conditions when shorthanded, is to be aboard a boat that will be happier left to her own devices, than a NM 43 would appear to be, at least to my eye...

For the time being, I'm afraid the best we can hope for is along the lines of "No News being Good News"... What these guys might be dealing with make the conditions that led to the abandonment of RAINMAKER seem like the proverbial Walk in the Park...

Forecast as of 4:11 am EST on February 15, 2015


Hurricane force wind warning


East Of 69w To The Hague Line Between 1000 Fm And 39n-

Today

SW winds 45 to 60 kt...becoming NW 50 to 65 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft...building to 22 to 31 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight

W to NW winds 45 to 60 kt...diminishing to 40 to 45 kt. Seas building to 25 to 36 ft. Scattered snow showers and chance of tstms early. Light freezing spray.
Mon

W to NW winds 35 to 45 kt. Seas subsiding to 18 to 26 ft. Light freezing spray early. Chance of snow.
Mon Night

NW winds 25 to 35 kt...becoming W to NW 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 10 to 15 ft.
Tue

E to se winds 15 to 25 kt...becoming S to SW and increasing to 35 to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft...building to 8 to 14 ft.
Tue Night

W to SW winds 35 to 45 kt...becoming NW and diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas building to 11 to 18 ft.
Wed

N to NE winds 5 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 8 to 11 ft.
Wed Night

W winds 20 to 30 kt...increasing to 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
Thu

W winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
Thu Night

W to NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

[Steadman Uhlich]

Originally Posted by Oceanride007

I feel a bit bad that I never started a thread with this info years ago. Sad because not enough is learn't from mistakes. But if I do get a little interest here, I will start a thread. Sorry in advance for thread drift.

Hi.
I read your posts and the linked article. Like Ann Cate, I think a new thread about that boat's loss would be good for the forum as others may discuss the story and learn from it.

[hoppy]

Originally Posted by Steady Hand

Hi.
I read your posts and the linked article. Like Ann Cate, I think a new thread about that boat's loss would be good for the forum as others may discuss the story and learn from it.

There is at least one thread about this guy going missing. I definitely read about it here at the time.

[Steadman Uhlich]

Jon's post of the forecast showing:

"Hurricane Force Wind Warning" "seas to 36 feet" and "freezing spray"

just confirms to me that anyone would be CRAZY to CHOOSE to sail into that, in any boat, big or small, with a million dollar carbon fibre mast or not.

This said by someone who respects Neptune and Mother Nature.

[Steadman Uhlich]

Originally Posted by hoppy

There is at least one thread about this guy going missing. I definitely read about it here at the time.

Maybe so. The story can still be instructive, even if it is a bit "old news."

So, I suggest (sincerely and seriously) to this site's Moderators that there should be a NEW FORUM (see proposed title below) on this site, with the threads dedicated to:

"Ship Wrecks, Sinkings, Rescues, and Hazards at Sea"

That forum would serve as a collecting point for the stories of boats and crews who dare Neptune, hazards at sea, or those who lose their boats either due to their decisions or unfortunate events. All the stories could serve as lessons to others.

Of course some hazards are simple things like exploding propane, spilled fuel, faulty through-hulls, or storms. More complex causes of boat losses are those involving human character and decisions.

[Sand crab]

Is that the boat? Quest? I saw that on eBay. Not my first choice for a half circumnavigation.

[Julie Mor]

This is the 48 hour wind/wave forecast from NOAA issued 06:12 UTC 02/15/15 (meters). Purple is their approximate starting point, red is approx. Bermuda.