Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

For those who think going South is a good idea, look for: Cyclone Beatrice that crossed the coast at Lismore in January 1959; Cyclone Colin in March 1976 producing 12 m waves off Sydney Heads and sinking boats in Botany Bay; and Cyclone Nancy in February 1990 crossed the coast near Byron Bay.

To be honest, 3 cyclones in nearly 60 years doesn't make it sound like a BAD idea.

Of course, the problem with going south, at least further south than the gold coast, is that it may have already become impossible by the time it starts to look like a good idea.

[RaymondR]

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 9:47 am EST on Wednesday 14 March 2018
At 9 am AEST Wednesday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Linda with central pressure 995 hPa
was located in the Coral Sea near latitude 21.7 south longitude 157.0 east,
which is about 630 km east northeast of Gladstone and 760 km north northeast of
Brisbane.

The system has transitioned into a subtropical low in the past few hours, and
will not recover tropical cyclone characteristics.

The system is expected to move generally to the southwest during today before
taking on a more southerly track on Thursday, and is expected to remain
offshore of the southern Queensland coast.

At its closest approach to the coast, the remains of Tropical Cyclone Linda
will generate large waves and dangerous surf conditions about exposed southern
Queensland beaches. Tides are also expected to be higher than normal,
particularly on Thursday morning's high tide. A Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

No further Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletins will be issued.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

To be honest, 3 cyclones in nearly 60 years doesn't make it sound like a BAD idea.

My apologies if I gave the incorrect impression that only those few cyclones affected Moreton Bay. I just picked a few that had large impacts.

Same with the cyclones that continued down to Sydney and other parts of NSW. I just picked a few of undeniable impact.

Another trap is thinking that one era (even an era 60 years) is typical. The weather record for SE Qld from 1824 shows no pattern that I can detect. A lot of chaos. And a string of years in the 19th century that show cyclone and severe storm and flooding impacts far greater than anything in the 20th or 21st century.

At least one year with a tsunami smashing into the Qld coast too.

Even if the fears meteorologists hold for a future with an average increase in temperature of only 2 degrees C only come half true, I figure that my age cohort has seen a remarkably benign climate.

Didja note that the carbon trading system introduced by Prime Minister Rabbott had its first repricing in February? Funny that PM Turdball didn't mention it, eh?

[Hasbeen]

I think this one is highly unlikely to effect Morton bay.


However for anyone thinking of staying at a Marina with a cyclone coming, I suggest you start saying your prayers. Very few marinas are built to protect boats in a "proper" blow. Have a look at the remains of Port Hinchinbrook after the last one up there. 40 Ft twin screw game boats in the front yards of homes, withy bits of the marina still attached was the order of the day.


Well up a mangrove creek is the best spot, but Morton bay offers few of them. Your best bet would be to make sure you've paid your insurance.

[ZULU40]

Originally Posted by Hasbeen

I think this one is highly unlikely to effect Morton bay.


However for anyone thinking of staying at a Marina with a cyclone coming, I suggest you start saying your prayers. Very few marinas are built to protect boats in a "proper" blow. Have a look at the remains of Port Hinchinbrook after the last one up there. 40 Ft twin screw game boats in the front yards of homes, withy bits of the marina still attached was the order of the day.


Well up a mangrove creek is the best spot, but Morton bay offers few of them. Your best bet would be to make sure you've paid your insurance.

Many Queensland marinas I have seen are quite unprotected, if the choice was them I'd consider standing off and taking my chances.

Hope Is. marina however is quite some ways inland and has a lot of structure (multi storey buildings) around it. Also I think he could make it in the window he would have left

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

2. Why hasn't much notice been issued to cruisers in Moreton Bay?

As Ann Cate noted, one of the realities of the current era is that you and I all have access to processed data that is better than professional
...
If the nanny state has whipped you into being a passive couch potato, then you would be waiting for notice from the Bureau of Meteorology

Your answer to the OP's question regarding advance storm notice might not consider the international perspective. Visitors from the Northern Hemisphere may very well be accustomed to several days notice for such events. In the Caribbean, we often watch the satellite maps that show an orderly progression of well-formed tropical depressions as they slowly march from Africa day after day. It can be a bit of a surprise for a visitor down under to see such beasts form just a few hundred kilometers away, then approach. The lack of local weather understanding does not necessarily indicate a reliance on the "nanny state". It might simply indicate the need to learn more about local storm behavior, no?

[Simi 60]

Total non event.
May have seen the occasional 30 knot gust.
Nothing to see here, move along.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by cyan

Visitors from the Northern Hemisphere may very well be accustomed to several days notice for such events. In the Caribbean, we often watch the satellite maps that show an orderly progression of well-formed tropical depressions as they slowly march from Africa day after day. It can be a bit of a surprise for a visitor down under to see such beasts form just a few hundred kilometers away, then approach. The lack of local weather understanding does not necessarily indicate a reliance on the "nanny state". It might simply indicate the need to learn more about local storm behavior, no?

I agree totally with you, cyan, about the need to learn about local conditions.

It doesn't matter whether you're a resident cruiser or a transient cruiser an ocean or three away from your home waters, you need to learn the local conditions and the seasonal patterns.

Let me note that tropical cyclogenesis usually occurs quite close to tropical parts of the Australian coast - just because those parts of Australia are in the tropics on the shore of seas that can become hot enough for cyclogenesis.

So tropical Australians do not always have the luxury of watching a formed tropical cyclone on its 'orderly progression'.

Australians in sub-tropical parts (such those around Moreton Bay) and those in temperate Aus (such as in New South Wales, southern parts of Western Aus) usually see an 'orderly progression' of tropical cyclones.

As you'll see below (if my writing is clear), I argue that this was a relatively unusual - but not unprecedented - case.

Extratropical cyclones (such as the things Aus calls East Coast Lows) usually form just off the coast. And then can travel to affect other parts of the coastline.

Cyclogenesis that results in tropical cyclones affecting Aus waters can take place in the Coral Sea, the Gulf of Carpentaria, the Arafura Sea, the Timor Sea, and the NE Indian Ocean. An intense fast-moving cyclone - which is not the case for each and every cyclone - can form and cross the coast in just a few days.

In this particular case, the cyclogenesis of what was v briefly a Category 1 cyclone named as Cyclone Linda, the tropical low formed in the Coral Sea and was under study by meteorologists.

The development and movement of the low was well represented in weather maps issued by the Aus Bureau of Met. And by all of the global numeric models (the ECMWF and GFS models that are used well by Ivor's exceptional gift to us: windy.com) and therefore in the GRIB weather models with which many cruisers are very familiar. Tropicalstormrisk.com and Bob McDavitt's Metbob blog noted the low.

So, as Ann Cate wrote and I probably also wrote, any cruiser likely to be affected had access to information several days before the low intensified to the point that the Bureau of Met issued a severe weather warning.

I don't know where you are, cyan. But I'll try with another example: I spent formative years developing cruising skills on the So Cal coast. It's a coast that can be affected by fog and particular winds. So sailors and cruisers there pay attention to cloud caps on Santa Cruz, the sudden good visibility that heralds a Santana, and so on. You can still get caught out by a sudden SE or an unexpected intensification in NE might disrupt plans (sailing to a schedule) but the local weather signs are there for everyone to see.

In the case of what became the short-lived Cyclone Linda, the low was clearly headed in a direction that might bring it close to the coast (if you go back to Dave S's post #1, he noted that the formation of a ridge from the continental high might keep this low from close approach). What wasn't certain was whether it would intensify, whether it would intensify to the point of becoming a named storm, and how close it would come to the coast.

The intensification came late, close to its approach of the coast. But it was also approaching cooler surface water. So the intensification was short-lived. But it was still potent enough to create some big ocean swells.

I think the big lessons are:

(1) on the tropical and sub-tropical Aus coasts, all cruisers need to monitor the weather and not wait until some authority declares a severe weather warning;

(2) if you are going to seek the shelter of a cyclone hole, you need to identify the safe hole well before time, know how long it takes to get there and how you would moor your boat, and practise mooring there (sure, transient cruisers do not always have that luxury of time. I arrived in one port just as the Harbour Master closed the port and ordered all vessels to take refuge in designated cyclone refuges, so I my learning curve was steep. Thems is da breaks); and similarly

(3) if as in N Moreton Bay there are v few cyclone holes, cruisers need to have thought through their strategy for staying in a marina:
(a) assessing the wind and wave protection, the strength of the pontoons and piles against the forces of storm surge and wind pressure,
(b) ensuring that your mast is not in line with that of your neighbour's,
(c) striking and stowing top hamper, running duplicate docklines to alternate bollards and cleats if possible,
(d) adequate fendering and chafe protection,
(e) liaising with marina management, and
(f) so on.

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by ZULU40

Many Queensland marinas I have seen are quite unprotected, if the choice was them I'd consider standing off and taking my chances.

Hope Is. marina however is quite some ways inland and has a lot of structure (multi storey buildings) around it. Also I think he could make it in the window he would have left

Yep, Hope island and Sanctuary cove are well inland and out of the flow of the river. And reachable from Manly in a day. There are also marinas in the Coomera river at the Boatworks and Gold coast city marina, well inland, but in the flow of the river.

[cyan]

Alan, thanks very much for the interesting weather details regarding the Australian coast. The global historical cyclone track maps look organized everywhere, except the East coast of OZ!
BTW, my home waters are safely out of those zones, right in the heart of the Catalina Eddy. June gloom never gets a mention in the travel brochures around here for some reason.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by cyan

BTW, my home waters are safely out of those zones, right in the heart of the Catalina Eddy. June gloom never gets a mention in the travel brochures around here for some reason.

June gloom is a sore point. I can remember June gloom in ... [fill in most any month].

[Mr B]

The Queensland coast is approx 5000 miles long,
On average they endure about 6 cyclones a year,
Between November and March, Monsoon season,

They also get rain Depressions, Rain with no wind, And I do mean heavy rain,
Tully last week in Nrth Quensland last week, had 800 inches in 72 hours,
This makes the rivers extremely deep and fast flowing, Severe flooding,
So rivers and creeks in these conditions are not a good place to be moored,
Visibilty is totally, Nil,

I was living in Mt Isa, 1973-1974, its a good 500 miles from the nearest coast, Well inland,
We got 10 inches of rain in twenty minutes, The local river went from bone dry to 6 feet deep in about 10 minutes, And not a scerik of wind, Dead calm,
Thankfully the rain dont last long, an hour or two and its all gone and the sun is shining again,
But you are then standing in the middle of an Ocean,

My first Cyclone was in Maryborough, 1973, The Eye went directly over head, I stepped out side in the middle of it,
It was dead calm and the sun was shining, Not knowing I was in the middle of it,
about twenty minutes it was like that,
Then the wind hit from the other way, full force, Thats when things started to happen,
Roofs were airborne along with every thing else, Dont go outside unless you want to die,
That airborne rubbish will cut you in half, 20 foot sheets of roofing iron is extremely dangerous, along with every thing else thats speeding thru the air,

Hervey Bay 20 miles away on the Coast got flattened, Trees nearly a metre thick snapped off 3 feet above the ground, It had extremely high winds,
It took about 3 days for the flood waters to come down,
Then most of Maryborough went under, The lower part of the ship yard I was working in was totally submerged, Including all buildings,
Not being a sailor at the time, It didnt worry us, as our boats were all safely tucked away under houses,

[Jim Cate]

Tully last week in Nrth Quensland last week, had 800 inches in 72 hours,

Hard to believe that number... do you have a citation for the data? I'd like to see the records!!

Jim

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

Hard to believe that number... do you have a citation for the data? I'd like to see the records!!

Jim

Local Papers up there, Channel 7 News,
The Premier of Queensland was up there Inspecting the floods,
I dont know how you missed it, if you watched the 7 PM news,
It would have been on the news even in Tassie where you are,

Tully records it annual rainfall in feet, Not inches,

Cheers, Brian,

[IslandHopper]

Originally Posted by Mr B

Local Papers up there, Channel 7 News,
The Premier of Queensland was up there Inspecting the floods,
I dont know how you missed it, if you watched the 7 PM news,
It would have been on the news even in Tassie where you are,

Tully records it annual rainfall in feet, Not inches,

Cheers, Brian,

Long way out with your figures there Brian, think someone is getting millimetres and inches mixed up.....

2 figures below with a Tully average from wiki.....

Tully daily rain summaries - www.farmonlineweather.com.au
= 1938.9mm (76.3in) Jan - March 2018 (49 days)

RAINFALL
= 1942.3 (76.5in) Jan - March 2018 (51 days)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tully,_Queensland