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Old 05-08-2020, 08:37   #1
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Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Does anybody else have problems with the windforecasts from Predictwind along the Michigan shore of the Lake?

I've reviewed my log books and I find that Predictwind is dramatically inaccurate. I don't mean windspeed, I mean 180 degree wind inaccuracy across all 4 models.

For example last weekend all the models were calling for some variation of Northeast backing to North. The wind was actually from the SW

The shore line there is not complicated enough to have micro wind experiences.

If you are also having a problem, do you use another wind prediction app.
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Old 05-08-2020, 09:03   #2
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

The model that experienced people use here is usually this one, which is Great Lakes specific. Or just rely on the NOAA marine forecast:

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/
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Old 05-08-2020, 09:22   #3
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Thanks for the link to the NOAA forecast


Quote:
Originally Posted by CFS Klopas View Post
The model that experienced people use here is usually this one, which is Great Lakes specific.
I'm not sure what you are referring to when you reference the model above, or were you referring to the NOAA link.

Thanks again
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Old 05-08-2020, 16:16   #4
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

The NOAA forecast I meant is the one you hear on VHF for micro targeted coastal regions, also available on various NOAA websites.
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Old 06-08-2020, 05:43   #5
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

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Originally Posted by CFS Klopas View Post
The NOAA forecast I meant is the one you hear on VHF for micro targeted coastal regions, also available on various NOAA websites.
Thank you very much. The website is very helpful. The boat and VHF are a 200 miles away. This will allow me to to distract myself from work to look forward to the weekend.
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Old 06-08-2020, 07:53   #6
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Personally I don't think Predictwind is the platform to use for near-shore/coastal sailing. Windfinder, WindGuru, or Windy would be better.
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Old 06-08-2020, 13:07   #7
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

I use SailFlow and the NOAA marine wx. app.
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Old 06-08-2020, 13:20   #8
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Predict Wind is fine for the big picture but not highly accurate local conditions, including offshore.
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Old 06-08-2020, 14:58   #9
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Look at Mark Thorton's site for weather info. I recommend his seminars or take his webinar from Great Lakes Cruising Club.

LakeErieWX: Marine Weather Education and Forecasting Resources
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Old 09-08-2020, 13:45   #10
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Are you using the High-res PredictWind Models? Where on the Lake are you? I can see validation charts that don't back up your records. It also seems to not match with people using PW to win the Chicago-Mac race...
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Old 09-08-2020, 18:47   #11
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Quote:
Originally Posted by nickolson View Post
Are you using the High-res PredictWind Models? Where on the Lake are you? I can see validation charts that don't back up your records. It also seems to not match with people using PW to win the Chicago-Mac race...
This is a funny fifth post in 5 years. Quite aggressive while not providing any real data to back it up.

What validation charts?
Who used PW in the Chicago Mac? What percent of sailors? Did they win?
Lake Michigan is ultimately a pretty small body of water for a passage planning app like Predict Wind. I have used it extensively for long distance sailing but find it lacking for coastal sailing. Why are you such a believer over all the other apps?
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Old 09-08-2020, 19:13   #12
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Quote:
Originally Posted by Palarran View Post
This is a funny fifth post in 5 years. Quite aggressive while not providing any real data to back it up.

What validation charts?
Who used PW in the Chicago Mac? What percent of sailors? Did they win?
Lake Michigan is ultimately a pretty small body of water for a passage planning app like Predict Wind. I have used it extensively for long distance sailing but find it lacking for coastal sailing. Why are you such a believer over all the other apps?
I work for PredictWind, which is why I am listed as a marine provider I don't post very often but check out what is going on every week.

Lots of boats use PW in the Chicago Mac. Here is the testimonial from one of the winners last year. Cameron Rylance – Goat Rodeo, Winner Mackinac Trophy 2019
I have used PredictWind for about 2 years now as a tool to confirm the forecast and tactical decisions. Starting about 3 days out we continuously run models to see which models are matching up and aligning with each other. This allows me to have confidence when the correct decision is to go far off rhumb line. Without these models before and during the race, it can be difficult to stick to a solid strategy. PW is also great for me because of the price point. In our fleet, we are often competing with boats running multi-thousand dollar programs and high end satellite systems. With PW we are able to keep up with top level teams and most importantly beat them.


PredictWind runs 1km and 8km resolution modeling on Lake Michigan.

High res modeling is very good for coastal routing. If you think PredictWind is just a Passage Planning tool then I'm guessing you have not used the PredictWind App and have only used the Offshore App?

The validation I refer to is a tool PredictWind is running to validate weather models against real-time observations. Soon it will be available to the public.
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Old 11-08-2020, 06:16   #13
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Quote:
Originally Posted by nickolson View Post
Are you using the High-res PredictWind Models? Where on the Lake are you? I can see validation charts that don't back up your records. It also seems to not match with people using PW to win the Chicago-Mac race...
For a person representing a company I find your response defensive and unhelpful.

It would have been much more helpful if you said "I work for Predictwind lets find out what the problem is; have you tried x, y or z."

With that being said I am on Lake Michigan sailing out of South Haven (SW corner of Michigan).

Which of the 4 models offered do you recommend I use?

PWG
PWE
ECMWF
GFS

Once you've given me that, I'll track in my log and come back with my report and tell the world I'm wrong.
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Old 12-08-2020, 21:03   #14
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tmacmi View Post
For a person representing a company I find your response defensive and unhelpful.

It would have been much more helpful if you said "I work for Predictwind lets find out what the problem is; have you tried x, y or z."

With that being said I am on Lake Michigan sailing out of South Haven (SW corner of Michigan).

Which of the 4 models offered do you recommend I use?

PWG
PWE
ECMWF
GFS

Once you've given me that, I'll track in my log and come back with my report and tell the world I'm wrong.
Sorry if you find me defensive, but you seem pretty direct in your original post. What would be best is to contact our support desk who would be very happy to help you resolve this.
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Old 13-08-2020, 03:37   #15
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Re: Problems with Predictwind in Lake Michigan

Quote:
Originally Posted by nickolson View Post
Sorry if you find me defensive, but you seem pretty direct in your original post. What would be best is to contact our support desk who would be very happy to help you resolve this.
Personally, I think you handled things well.


Sadly, these types of forums are a double edged sword and you will always get people like the OP that will crap on someone trying to do something helpful.


I hope this doesn't deter PW from monitoring and / or contributing to the forum.


Love your last response!
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