Prices not going down??

[Island Time O25]

What is lost in the discussion is how did we get here?

The abolition of Ellis Island type of quarantine, which worked fairly well up until the time it was discontinued, is the primary cause of our current predicament. Sure it would be akward, unwieldy, arbitrary and perhaps even somewhat discriminatory on surface. But it is the only way to keep a healthy society healthy and away from introduced epidemics.

Each cruiser is more than superficially familiar with the idea of quarantine when entering foreing ports. Why is not the same procedure apply to all entrants? Is arriving by croweded plane with 100s of other passengers any more safe from the medical POV then arriving by private yacht with a small crew or even by one's self?

We have traded caution and common sense for expediency and mighty profit. And don't get me started on the wisdom of letting the prisoners out into the general public. This idiocy not only supports the idea of term limits but also (more importantly IMO) the idea of some kind of ongoing mental health test for any political office holder.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

What is lost in the discussion is how did we get here?

The abolition of Ellis Island type of quarantine, which worked fairly well up until the time it was discontinued, is the primary cause of our current predicament. Sure it would be akward, unwieldy, arbitrary and perhaps even somewhat discriminatory on surface. But it is the only way to keep a healthy society healthy and away from introduced epidemics.

.....

Ellis Island closed in 1954. The Spanish Flu ravaged the country in 1918. Not sure Ellis Is style quarantine was all that succesful.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Ellis Island closed in 1954. The Spanish Flu ravaged the country in 1918. Not sure Ellis Is style quarantine was all that succesful.

In 1918 millions of soldiers were going to and coming back from WW1. And I'm pretty sure most were not quarantined as newly arrving immigrants would have been. You actually proved my point.

Our immigration laws were pretty loose before 1924, when the first comprehensive set of new laws was enacted. So one can argue that had we had these rules in 1918+if we had no WW1 soldiers coming back we may have escaped the brunt of the pandemic. Not totally escaped but enough for it to be more contained.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

In 1918 millions of soldiers were going to and coming back from WW1. And I'm pretty sure most were not quarantined as newly arrving immigrants would have been. You actually proved my point.

Our immigration laws were pretty loose before 1924, when the first comprehensive set of new laws was enacted. So one can argue that had we had these rules in 1918+if we had no WW1 soldiers coming back we may have escaped the brunt of the pandemic. Not totally escaped but enough for it to be more contained.

Ellis Island did not solve the problems as you proposed. There is always major holes in the methods to limit and quarantine 'foreigners'. In your example it was the troops. In the current example of banning Chinese flights while encouraging repatriation of US citizens and related people from China. In large countries with complex borders there will always be exceptions. You can seal off a small island country, but not so much the large complex geographies.

[valhalla360]

Keep in mind that the comments on here about buying/selling individual boats are not representative of the market.

Sure if you are debt free with large cash holdings, you can wait it out...but that is not representative of the market as a whole and for a buyer, as long as you don't get hung up on a specific boat, you don't have to buy from the 2% of sellers who have their finances completely under control.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Although I fully appreciate the very real life-and-death catastrophe that Covid-19 represents, I find myself becoming increasingly concerned with how quickly and easily this disaster is leading to authoritarian responses.

At this point it's clear to me that all our vaunted freedoms and liberties are as fragile and flimsy as our entire economic system is showing itself to be. I'm no libertarian wing-nut, and anyone who's been around here for long knows I'm certainly not opposed to government intervention when needed. But night after night I watch our Western leaders simply stand at the podium and impose greater and greater limitations on all our freedoms, while basically putting a spigot to the future's resources through massive outpourings of debt-driven "stimulus."

Some of these actions I fully support, but surely I am not the only one with a growing sense of unease over all this rapid authoritarian intervention. Where are the checks and balances? Where is the sober second thought? Heck where is any second thought?

Fear is never a good place from which to make rational decisions. We have good reason to fear Covid-19, but with each passing measure this line rings louder in my mind:

Beware, most especially, of your best intentions.

Interesting viewpoint. I actually have the opposite view even as a fiercely independent person who is against most things government.

I think we should have done exactly what they did in Wuhan. It's not easy to accept that individual suffering is better for the greater good, but it's the only way to win this one. I'd happily spend a couple months in a single room if it meant we'd be free of this virus. I'm all for martial law and total loss of individual freedom during these next couple months if it means we can win more quickly and less people die.

This is a temporary situation. The time for debate and checks and balances is later, once we prevail.

[wolfgal]

Originally Posted by Chotu

Interesting viewpoint. I actually have the opposite view even as a fiercely independent person who is against most things government.

I think we should have done exactly what they did in Wuhan. It's not easy to accept that individual suffering is better for the greater good, but it's the only way to win this one. I'd happily spend a couple months in a single room if it meant we'd be free of this virus. I'm all for martial law and total loss of individual freedom during these next couple months if it means we can win more quickly and less people die.

This is a temporary situation. The time for debate and checks and balances is later, once we prevail.

IF this is a temporary situation, and we do not lose liberty longterm, maybe this is for the greater good.

but how does it feel on the ground right now for those who are in the mist of it?


here in france we've been in lockdown for what seems like forever. i was among the first to catch it (i believe it was it - no tests available here - and it is no fun, it kept coming back in waves, starting with a massive headache)... that was on march 8... 16 days ago.

so i've been super stuck. now that i am fine, i kind of want to get some air... ok, so we have to fill out a permission slip (downloaded from govt website) to go out, to do shopping, for very specific things. we write in name, address, date... and carry our i.d. cards.

as of today, the time of the day when we leave our homes must be on the slip, and we are limited to being out one hour. this means that a long walk is out of the question. it also means that i cannot make a run to see a friend of mine from boston who direly needs me to lend her 500 euros... she is across town, and there are cops stopping people all over paris.



paris is a hub, yes, i get that, but there are so many stories of people losing their jobs (esp in the restaurant business and other gig jobs like piano teachers, etc). it really and truly feels like the economy is going bust here. it also feels like the lockdown is shaking out those who operate in cash...


and, although the virus gave us the final kick, the economy was going bust anyway. and that's the thing.

my feeling is this: the failing economic system is being contained (as in, controlled, measured, mediated) by the virus itself. it is a means to make a massive paradigm shift.


let's look at what it feels like on the ground on another front: it feels like my bank is giving me the slip...

i had mentioned that i wanted to close my long-term savings (a thing one doesn't touch for 8 years), repeatedly for a couple of years now (given the neg interest rates, my original capital of only 50 k is being eaten alive: they take out up to 1800 in fees and taxes per year!), BUT each time the man with a very reassuring voice and incredibly nice eyes (im' sure they matched me to him on the vulnerability scale) tells me that it is not a good idea. every time i've left his office, i left kicking myself.

well, last week i told myself it was now or never. suddenly, he doesn't answer emails. on the phone they say he is out... i call and ask someone else to do it for me: "oh it is complicated; he can do it next week". then today, "oh he is out this week too".

so i cornered the gal on the phone this morning at opening and told her i needed it done asap. "oh, i am afraid i will get into trouble. you should wait until next week" NO, he knows i really want to close the account. and besides, i've had enough of this! "ok then, but i have lots of work; it'll do my best to do it this week"

THIS WEEK?

why would the bank give me the run around? because the bank wants to hang on to any real capital they have, because they have lent out way above 10 percent of their capital holdings. french banks did not make the same reform of not lending out over 10 percent after 2008. some are up there with citibank, at the time...

and it doesn't stop there:

already, while a good while now, i cannot make a purchase over 1500 euro without going through my blue-eyed sweet-talking guy there (i cannot make an on-line transfer, and it is not like i have an ounce of debt!). i have to write an email and then talk to my guy (beg a bit and yes, he does do his best to dissuade me), and then it takes more than a week for the payment to be completed, every single time!


it all feels like the walls closing in...

wolfie


sorry for all the typos. internet is intermittent here...

[Chotu]

@wolfgal. I absolutely agree about the financial restrictions. These are a loss of freedom and government control of the type I'm strongly against.

We face many similar problems in the States. In fact, after 9/11 I think we created most of this financial loss of liberty in the name of "anti terror" and required many other countries to go along with it or be cut off. We destroyed freedom in Switzerland for example.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Chotu

Interesting viewpoint. I actually have the opposite view even as a fiercely independent person who is against most things government.

I think we should have done exactly what they did in Wuhan. It's not easy to accept that individual suffering is better for the greater good, but it's the only way to win this one. I'd happily spend a couple months in a single room if it meant we'd be free of this virus. I'm all for martial law and total loss of individual freedom during these next couple months if it means we can win more quickly and less people die.

This is a temporary situation. The time for debate and checks and balances is later, once we prevail.

Temporary?

Direct quote from the Senate Minority Whip:
“a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision”

That doesn't sound very temporary to me. Lots of the additions (from both sides) have nothing to do with the crisis but they know anyone who votes against crisis relief will be castigated...once it's passed into law, it's much harder to remove it.

9/11 had similar issues where things got passed because we had to react now and it was a temporary situation...and they are still going strong almost 20yrs later.

[hpeer]

Sometimes I over think and over analyze. Don’t know about this time. There is a LOT going on.

Besides the straight up corona stuff you have this oil war between SA and Russia. SA decided to push up production, because they can produce cheaper than Russia, to punish them for not agreeing to production limits.

So SA is sitting in big quantities of pumped product, they have just about filled up all floating storage (tankers) thinking they would sell cheaper than Russia. Now the virus is driving demand down, buyers are trying to get out of contracts. Oil price may plummet. Which may be very good to help economy back on its feet. But maybe not. Oil is a big part of the economy.

Also there is Iran which is having trouble internally and squabbles between the two governments and military. Plummeting oil prices will only make things worse for them and the government is in danger. That could destabilize the entire ME.

It strikes me India is doing next to nothing and other states like Pakistan and Malaysia and Bangladesh will also not flatten the curve, but try to get through the storm with as little economic damage as possible.

I don’t know how to integrate this into a cohesive theory. I’m just saying there are more factors at play than discussed on MSM. It could swing either way.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Temporary?

Direct quote from the Senate Minority Whip:
“a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision”

That doesn't sound very temporary to me. Lots of the additions (from both sides) have nothing to do with the crisis but they know anyone who votes against crisis relief will be castigated...once it's passed into law, it's much harder to remove it.

9/11 had similar issues where things got passed because we had to react now and it was a temporary situation...and they are still going strong almost 20yrs later.

Definitely. I just posted the same about 9/11.

I'm talking about what they did in Wuhan to fight the virus, not legislation. Nearly all legislation is bad in one way or another.

Talking about forced quarantine for everyone. Ripping a band aid off instead of peeling it slowly. There's nothing wrong with an extreme response like that to win this.

Has nothing to do with the "stimulus" legislation providing payouts to large corps, Obamaphones, racist banking quotas, reducing our civil liberties afterward, etc. I'm talking about freedom of movement temporarily suspended to stop contagion.

We're already in 1.5 weeks of self imposed quarantine here. Admittedly, my stakes are a lot higher in this one than the average person, but if everyone were to stay put, this would be over in a month.

[robert sailor]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

In 1918 millions of soldiers were going to and coming back from WW1. And I'm pretty sure most were not quarantined as newly arrving immigrants would have been. You actually proved my point.

Our immigration laws were pretty loose before 1924, when the first comprehensive set of new laws was enacted. So one can argue that had we had these rules in 1918+if we had no WW1 soldiers coming back we may have escaped the brunt of the pandemic. Not totally escaped but enough for it to be more contained.

Not sure how you square this since to my knowledge the so called Spanish flue actually saw its beginning in the USA.

[Elcid]

These are very scary times. And I hope we get to the other side of it soon and relatively okish.

I'm also looking to buy a boat. And I'm thinking there will be a massive surplus on the market, especially from the chartering businesses, in the next few months. I'm just wondering which websites are good places to keep an eye out on for Greece, Croatia, Italy?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Chotu

...This is a temporary situation. The time for debate and checks and balances is later, once we prevail.

And this is EXACTLY the attitude that scares the bejeezus out of me .

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

And this is EXACTLY the attitude that scares the bejeezus out of me .

Mike,

Excuse me if I’ve asked this before, have you read Thinking: Fast and Slow? If not you are now out of excuses, you DO have the time. LOL

seriously good book. To say extensively researched would be an understatement.