Prices not going down??

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by fivecapes

Is that on an absolute basis, or per capita?

March 30 numbers
S Korea 316,000 tests
USA. 104,000 tests

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by CarinaPDX

We should have been tracing down everyone sick, and all of their contacts (as we did for syphilis), but it spread too fast, we were unprepared, and without tests it spread undetected. This is how South Korea got control without extreme measures - test, identify, isolate, and trace contacts. For us now, minimizing contacts, for a month or more, the transmission is cut back and those infected can heal without spreading. This will effectively put us back to an earlier stage of the epidemic, at a point that traditional containment practices will work, with the help of readily available tests and of course fewer cases.

I don't think we will reach this point. To get back to individual containment we'd need to turn back the clock to mid February.

Germany was pretty good at tracing & isolating the first cases. But with open borders and non-existent screening at airports it was clear from the beginning that we could only loose this battle.

Anyway now we are in social distance mode. Still allowed to leave home for work (if you still have something to do), grocery / pharmacy shopping (everything else closed), and do individual outdoor sports. No more than 2 individuals allowed to gather, minimum distance required 1.5m.

This will certainly reduce new infections, but nowhere near the 2-3 digit figures that we can manage to successfully trace & isolate. So it won't put us back into February.
To reset the timeline back to mid February we'd need a 100% curfew & lockdown for 3 weeks. I hope that nobody seriously tries this, as acceptance of such measures would be extremely low.

Also I don't think its the smartest idea as it would take forever to reach herd immunity.

Instead the idea is to reduce the number of active cases to just stay below ICU capacity. We have to keep it that way until we find a vaccine or reach the point of herd immunity.
Either way it will be a long time, and containment measures will have to be constantly adjusted to keep CV cases within certain thresholds. Too many cases at once and people die in overcrowded hospitals, even from unrelated accidents. Too few and ICUs will be underused, and the time to reach herd immunity is longer than required (each day costs billions).

That is the idea. We will see if this works out.


Based on current numbers our response was a bit too successful / early. We are currently underusing our ICU capacity by a large margin. Only a handful of hospitals report busy ICUs, the vast majority is still green.
But then I have no idea how this will look like in 1-2 weeks when the first peak hits us.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by alansmith

... This isn’t politically directed at anyone but it looks like the printing presses will be running for upteen days with the stimulus pkg. it is staggering to imagine our debt. We are not alone. But I would say USA is number one debtor nation in this blue planet...

Nope.

According to the OECD ➥ https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm

Government Debt as a Ratio to Each Country’s Gross Domestic Product:
Japan: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 235 percent
Greece: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 188 percent
Italy: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 156 percent
Portugal: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 146 percent
Belgium: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 128 percent
United States: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 127 percent
France: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 123 percent
United Kingdom: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 119 percent
Spain: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 117 percent
Canada: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 114 percent

The Countries With the Most $ Debt:
Japan
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Belgium
United States
France
United Kingdom
Spain
Canada

Total U.S. consumer debt is at $13.86 trillion. That includes mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and student loans.
Comparing total household debt, to the overall size of the economy, as measured by GDP, is one of the measures of household (consumer) indebtedness . And per this household-debt-to-GDP measure, the Americans are 10th place with 78.8%. Switzerland is number 1, at 127.7%.
➥ https://www.businessinsider.com/thes...-slaves-2017-1

[slug]

Originally Posted by Byrdman

When a company is interested in paying back shareholders for unused or retained earning that are not needed, they should declare dividends, but that didn't happen. The money was used to buyback stock to overinflate the value of the company and enrich executives since most of their bonuses are paid with stock. To make matters worse, when they ran out of money, they issued debt to buy more stock. No way you are going to convince me that the stock market was valued properly with the DOW at 29,0000+ when a simple price-to-earnings ratio has shown different.

Preparing for a downturn by having cash on hand is a productive home for money. Also, re-tooling for greater efficiency for product delivery and investing in your workforce vs executive pay would seem to make your company stronger to weather the downturns like Ford vs the rest of the US automakers back in 2008.

How has that great return to shareholders been for the past 3 weeks. Almost all stock appreciation gains for the past 3+ years are gone, and no companies were announcing huge dividends to give back to the shareholder during that time.

As I mentioned before, the biggest elephant in the room may be the derivatives market. We really have no idea how much money was bet by Wall Street that the markets would stay healthy. We may be in for a much bigger surprise, but I hope not.

I view share buybacks as both good and bad

It’s incorrect to broadly condemn buybacks

This article explains it better than I can

https://www.thebalance.com/cash-dividends-vs-share-repurchases-357439

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by slug

I view share buybacks as both good and bad

It’s incorrect to broadly condemn buybacks

This article explains it better than I can

https://www.thebalance.com/cash-dividends-vs-share-repurchases-357439

Share buybacks to me means that management can't come up with anything to further invest in the company that they think will be succesful. They have a large hoard of cash and don't think it is worth expanding the business, buying new equipment, doing more R and D, acquiring other companies, etc. Pretty poor outlook on the company and pretty uninspired management.

Dividends should come out of annual profits, not from the balance sheet.

[slug]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Share buybacks to me means that management can't come up with anything to further invest in the company that they think will be succesful. They have a large hoard of cash and don't think it is worth expanding the business, buying new equipment, doing more R and D, acquiring other companies, etc. Pretty poor outlook on the company and pretty uninspired management.

Dividends should come out of annual profits, not from the balance sheet.

Dividends are taxed , share price is not

[Byrdman]

Originally Posted by slug

I view share buybacks as both good and bad

It’s incorrect to broadly condemn buybacks

This article explains it better than I can

https://www.thebalance.com/cash-divi...rchases-357439

You are correct, not all buybacks are bad. The stock buybacks I am talking about are the ones that increased compensation for executives at the expense of corporation's cash flow and buybacks using leveraging to the point of insolvency.

IMO, this is what was going on too much over the past few years. Everyone is always happy while making plenty of money, until they are not.

[Lake-Effect]

I have a stupid (no, REALLY STOOPID) set of world-economy questions and proposals. Of course anyone can weigh in (with enforced idleness we're all ruminating on this stuff), but I would really like to hear from those with serious experience in this area.

Here goes.

In most major economies, the economic effects of isolation/self-distancing orders is affecting just about everyone.

Let's arbitrarily state that we have to remain locked-down for April and May.

Here comes the stupid: Why can't we all agree that EVERY financial obligation is suspended for two months? Eg - stop the clock on every financial deadline? Suspend all trading on the stock market. Every mortgage, rent due, visa bill, bond, note, etc etc, no interest accruing on assets or debts - the due date of everything is pushed forward by two months.

The immediate and obvious objection to this is that we need funds out of the market ie liquidity to keep everything running, people need to eat, etc. To which I say yes, of course, but if every financial obligation is pushed forward by two months, then the amount of immediate required liquidity required anywhere goes way down, yes? That would mean that the governments wouldn't have to inject as much cash in to keep things running for right now.

Not my area at all... but maybe some financial markets might possibly be allowed to operate in some very restricted fashion to generate a bit of liquidity as well?

Analysis? Thoughts?


You've probably guessed that I would favour the bulk of any stimulus go to PEOPLE, who need to keep spending a little to live, rather than at the top of the money chain to allow corporations and the wealthy to continue to make money while the rest of us actually suffer. If the market was on hold for two months, NO corporation would actually need money... just their employees, right?

At the end of May, press GO again, and April's obligations would fall due... in June. And we pick up where we left off.

Poke away.

[GordMay]

... there are a few other things that have trotted across my forehead today... it has been a really, really rough day here. i never did read Orwell's 1984. always meant to, but honestly couldn't find the courage. now i find that, given the choice, i do not want to read it...

As rabbi suggested, you should read it (or anything).

“1984" by George Orwell
➥ https://www.planetebook.com/free-ebooks/1984.pdf

“Brave New World” by Aldous Leonard Huxley
➥ https://www.idph.com.br/conteudos/eb...veNewWorld.pdf

More Free* Literature ➥ https://www.planetebook.com/
* All in the public domain, and out of copyright.

[Barra]

Yes but its interesting how those leaderboards always split govt and household debt and almost never mention corporate debt all at once.

I'm guessing it's because that number is just too scary.

Eg US ranks high in ALL the categories. Other countries mainly just have 1 or 2.

Adding household and govt debt together it's basically 200% of GDP

Add in corporate debt and you are at 300% of GDP

Economists are talking about 20% GDP contractions for a few quarters. That would put total debt heading towards 400%.

Far more than the grexit debacle. Let's hope it's a v shape recovery!

Originally Posted by GordMay

Nope.

According to the OECD ➥ https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm

Government Debt as a Ratio to Each Country’s Gross Domestic Product:
Japan: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 235 percent
Greece: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 188 percent
Italy: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 156 percent
Portugal: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 146 percent
Belgium: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 128 percent
United States: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 127 percent
France: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 123 percent
United Kingdom: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 119 percent
Spain: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 117 percent
Canada: Debt-to-GDP ratio: 114 percent

The Countries With the Most $ Debt:
Japan
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Belgium
United States
France
United Kingdom
Spain
Canada

Total U.S. consumer debt is at $13.86 trillion. That includes mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and student loans.
Comparing total household debt, to the overall size of the economy, as measured by GDP, is one of the measures of household (consumer) indebtedness . And per this household-debt-to-GDP measure, the Americans are 10th place with 78.8%. Switzerland is number 1, at 127.7%.
➥ https://www.businessinsider.com/thes...-slaves-2017-1

[Singularity]

I would highly discourage someone feeling down from reading 1984 or other dystopian novels. Frankly from the time that early humans started gathering in groups things have gotten increasingly "dystopic" if one allows their mind to go there.

In the alternative...Viktor Frankl's Man's Search for Meaning (free .pdf) perhaps is a much better read. People are wired to think differently under stress...this seems to lend a survival benefit. As a concentration camp survivor I don't think Frankl would have found it useful if someone had thrown copies of "Everything is F&cked" over the fence into the camp compound...

[GordMay]

“Corporate Debt Kings: The World's Most Indebted Companies 2020"
Some interesting members, in this club ➥ https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/ec...ebt-world-2020


In the first quarter of 2019, the total private and public debt of the United States hit a record $70 trillion, raising concerns about the possibility of widespread defaults. Non-financial corporate businesses hold about $9 trillion of that debt.

Top 5 Companies With the Most Long-Term Debt (excludes financial companies)
1. AT&T (Telecommunications): $166.3B
2. Comcast (Telecommunications): $107.3B
3. Verizon (Telecommunications): $105.9B
4. Ford Motor (Motor vehicles & parts): $100.7B
5. General Electric (Industrials): $95.2B

Top 5 US Companies With the Highest Debt-to-Equity Ratios (excludes financial companies)
1. General Electric (Industrials): 8.35
2. UPS (Mail, package & freight delivery): 6.56
3. Ford Motor (Motor vehicles & parts): 2.
4. FirstEnergy (Utilities): 2.61
5. Amgen (Pharmaceuticals & Health Care): 2.36

“US Companies With the Biggest Corporate Debt”

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by GordMay

As rabbi suggested, you should read it (or anything).

“1984" by George Orwell
➥ https://www.planetebook.com/free-ebooks/1984.pdf

“Brave New World” by Aldous Leonard Huxley
➥ https://www.idph.com.br/conteudos/eb...veNewWorld.pdf

More Free* Literature ➥ https://www.planetebook.com/
* All in the public domain, and out of copyright.

"Animal Farm" is good too, if not that well known.

Come to think of it, at this point even "Animal House" would be a good diversion from the news.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by GordMay

“Corporate Debt Kings: The World's Most Indebted Companies 2020"
Some interesting members, in this club ➥ https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/ec...ebt-world-2020


In the first quarter of 2019, the total private and public debt of the United States hit a record $70 trillion, raising concerns about the possibility of widespread defaults. Non-financial corporate businesses hold about $9 trillion of that debt.

Top 5 Companies With the Most Long-Term Debt (excludes financial companies)
1. AT&T (Telecommunications): $166.3B
2. Comcast (Telecommunications): $107.3B
3. Verizon (Telecommunications): $105.9B
4. Ford Motor (Motor vehicles & parts): $100.7B
5. General Electric (Industrials): $95.2B

Top 5 US Companies With the Highest Debt-to-Equity Ratios (excludes financial companies)
1. General Electric (Industrials): 8.35
2. UPS (Mail, package & freight delivery): 6.56
3. Ford Motor (Motor vehicles & parts): 2.
4. FirstEnergy (Utilities): 2.61
5. Amgen (Pharmaceuticals & Health Care): 2.36

“US Companies With the Biggest Corporate Debt”

Shouldn't this debt be ofset by their cash reserves? I recall reading that Apple is sitting on hundreds of billions of cash. So their $93bil debt doesn't look so scary.

[dwedeking2]

Originally Posted by Singularity

I would highly discourage someone feeling down from reading 1984 or other dystopian novels. Frankly from the time that early humans started gathering in groups things have gotten increasingly "dystopic" if one allows their mind to go there.

In the alternative...Viktor Frankl's Man's Search for Meaning (free .pdf) perhaps is a much better read. People are wired to think differently under stress...this seems to lend a survival benefit. As a concentration camp survivor I don't think Frankl would have found it useful if someone had thrown copies of "Everything is F&cked" over the fence into the camp compound...

I think 1984 was written as a warning. Something you would read before it happens to avoid it. Unfortunately we took it as a guide and it's depressing to read now that we're so close.