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Old 11-03-2018, 14:19   #196
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Re: Prepping?

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Originally Posted by Robert Tilbury View Post
I have a problem with the Australian fuel system , we have stopped All refining ,, i know it sounds stupid we have enough oil in BASS STRAIGHT to last 1000 years but the do gooder greens have halted production so we purchase refined petroleum products from over seas ,
We have a 9 day buffer , if the tankers stop we stop !

I worked in the petrochemical industry , In Sydney we had Kurnell and Clyde refinery`s

They are gone ,,,

So lets say if China or indonisia wanted to invade Australia , they can stop fuel delivery`s we are stuffed !

Very real concerns. We are actually already at war with China, its just a soft war.
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Old 11-03-2018, 14:32   #197
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Re: Prepping?

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Very real concerns. We are actually already at war with China, its just a soft war.
also without being alarmist , lets talk indonisia ,
They hate us they just want our money we pay them in aid millions every year ,,
Now the kicker
POP in INDO 132 million
POP in OZ 28 Million

Thats a 5 to one ,,,

And Australia arms Indonisia with our military Tech ?
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Old 11-03-2018, 14:38   #198
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Re: Prepping?

For me, solar events is all I need to know about to take action on this subject.

-Advances in supply chain management have greatly increased efficiency by, amongst other things, reducing capital tied up in not-sold goods. Now we have "just in time" supplies for everything, including stored goods. Current supply chains cannot account for a run on goods. Canned food that used to be good for several years "expires" maybe after a year. The system has changed.

-Consider major solar events (coronal mass ejections) which occur frequently in history (<200 years) with smaller events more common. See 1859 and more recently the small localized event in the north of the US maybe a couple decades ago.

-Understand the consequences of an 1859 event were it to happen today with respect to food availability, gasoline. Consider what the relatively complete loss of gasoline would do in this environment. 60% of people living paycheck to paycheck.

-Recall the old quote "there are only nine meals separating man from anarchy."

-If you haven't stored food it is because of a conscious educated decision that accepts the risk. I don't meet many people familiar with the data in calculating risk who also considers a bit of food hoarding to be "nutty."
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Old 11-03-2018, 14:41   #199
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Re: Prepping?

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Originally Posted by Robert Tilbury View Post
also without being alarmist , lets talk indonisia ,
They hate us they just want our money we pay them in aid millions every year ,,
Now the kicker
POP in INDO 132 million
POP in OZ 28 Million

Thats a 5 to one ,,,

And Australia arms Indonisia with our military Tech ?
Rob,

Your not wrong, the world isn't as it seems. If you guys ever get hit, you come on out to my neck of the woods. I have lots of land, you guys can come out till things settle down.

Dan
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Old 11-03-2018, 14:48   #200
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Re: Prepping?

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For me, solar events is all I need to know about to take action on this subject.

-Advances in supply chain management have greatly increased efficiency by, amongst other things, reducing capital tied up in not-sold goods. Now we have "just in time" supplies for everything, including stored goods. Current supply chains cannot account for a run on goods. Canned food that used to be good for several years "expires" maybe after a year. The system has changed.

-Consider major solar events (coronal mass ejections) which occur frequently in history (<200 years) with smaller events more common. See 1859 and more recently the small localized event in the north of the US maybe a couple decades ago.

-Understand the consequences of an 1859 event were it to happen today with respect to food availability, gasoline. Consider what the relatively complete loss of gasoline would do in this environment. 60% of people living paycheck to paycheck.

-Recall the old quote "there are only nine meals separating man from anarchy."

-If you haven't stored food it is because of a conscious educated decision that accepts the risk. I don't meet many people familiar with the data in calculating risk who also considers a bit of food hoarding to be "nutty."
The supply chain thing really came to my attention when my wife was the buyer at a Trader Joe's and we ended up meeting the Vons managers too and picking there brains.
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Old 11-03-2018, 15:08   #201
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Re: Prepping?

Here is a relevant site concerning solar activity.
SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
Look at the sunspot numbers for the previous years. 2015 was touted as the warmest 2016 was second warmest and 2017 was third warmest looking at sunspot numbers it becomes readily apparent what is actually happening.
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Old 11-03-2018, 15:10   #202
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Re: Prepping?

Look at the flooding now in Queensland Aust and their comparison to the floods of 2009. Now look at the sunspot numbers .
See any correlations?
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Old 11-03-2018, 15:16   #203
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Re: Prepping?

I dunno, all the preppers I've ever met were pretty nutty. Not super relevant in today's world so they fantasize about situations where they'd become king by smashing rocks together and shooting grizzlies.

Thats where my roll-of-the-eyes attitude toward this subject comes from, I'll admit all of you sound significantly less unhinged than that.
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Old 11-03-2018, 15:17   #204
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Re: Prepping?

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when was the last time before this winter have people had to winterize their boats against freezing cold in Slidell in seawater ? ( don't believe the gw Crap) .
Following the local weather, are you? Did you notice that every day except one in February was above average temperature? Or that the average temperature for the month broke the record by 3 degrees? (Which is a lot)

But I'm talking about long-term trends, not little blips here and there. Personally, I definitely believe the gw crap, but if you don't that's your own judgement call. Like I said, good luck to you.
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Old 11-03-2018, 15:28   #205
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Re: Prepping?

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Following the local weather, are you? Did you notice that every day except one in February was above average temperature? Or that the average temperature for the month broke the record by 3 degrees? (Which is a lot)

But I'm talking about long-term trends, not little blips here and there. Personally, I definitely believe the gw crap, but if you don't that's your own judgement call. Like I said, good luck to you.
actually I do follow your weather more than most due to family in Gulfport ms as well as various locations all over the gulf states.
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Old 11-03-2018, 21:06   #206
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Re: Prepping?

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I dunno, all the preppers I've ever met were pretty nutty. Not super relevant in today's world so they fantasize about situations where they'd become king by smashing rocks together and shooting grizzlies.
<snip>
-To be sure there are a lot of nutter preppers. Of the seen clips on youtube/cable, predominantly the image is of big-gut men (seemingly without other hobbies besides prepping related activities) imagining a future where they are Rambo, Davy Crocket, MacGyver, etc, using their imagination to conjure up scenarios where you can use a coffee pot as a dialysis machine and take turns be lord of the flies.

-The above said, I can respect someone saying "personally I see risk is bad enough and, I've got some surplus capital and free time, I'm gonna stock up a bit." As can I respect someone who says that this stuff is "not really relevant in modern times" and takes no preparations. We each have to make our own call and hedge our bets accordingly. Just don't pop over to borrow a cup of sugar after the four horseman have ridden by.

-With respect to the cruising lifestyle...I find it partially attractive specifically because it is relative immune from financial and certain cataclysmic events. The closer to the earth (and/or sea) one lives, the less one is concerned about, for example, food chain supply issues. People living on the water intrinsically have mastered "just in time" food sourcing (albeit subject to it's own nuanced problems, namely events that include more water than is desired).
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Old 11-03-2018, 21:46   #207
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Re: Prepping?

Here is a per book that imo every cruiser/ sailor should have in his/ her arsenal. Named Sailing The Farm
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...SbNqBjfN8yQzAa
a great reference book and has lots of useable information in it.
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Old 12-03-2018, 05:01   #208
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Re: Prepping?

I described my preps early in the thread and what I was prepping for. I do notice that most preppers here are talking about events within the realm of reason: civil disruption, power outages, storms, Earth quakes. The kinds of things we read about in the paper occasionally, rather practically minded. Those that deride the preppers cast us as preparing for some armeggedon level event. By defining the event as such a total catastrophe that no one could escape they free themselves from taking even modest steps.

I suppose that is just a part of human nature and is very common amongst us. I know when having similar discussions with inner city dwellers they are often fatalistic. “What happens if the power to your high rise goes out for a month or two in a hard winter? Well then I will die.” I find this an unacceptable answer. For others it OK. To each his own.
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Old 12-03-2018, 07:40   #209
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Re: Prepping?

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Good for you!



No doubt. We should probably take steps now to ensure food security for as many as possible, so that we don't have to face desperate starving people. Do you agree?
Very funny. Humanity's numbers are slowly but steadily increasing with every year to the detriment of our environment and social order. However, the white race's numbers in Europe and North America are not increasing, the same race which you have already spoke of in a slightly disparaging manner. Why is this occurring? Are the whites more aware of the over population problem or simply more taxed?
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Old 12-03-2018, 08:17   #210
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Re: Prepping?

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I described my preps early in the thread and what I was prepping for. I do notice that most preppers here are talking about events within the realm of reason: civil disruption, power outages, storms, Earth quakes. The kinds of things we read about in the paper occasionally, rather practically minded. Those that deride the preppers cast us as preparing for some armeggedon level event. By defining the event as such a total catastrophe that no one could escape they free themselves from taking even modest steps.
Who here has said they are against "modest steps" or being resourceful and proactive? You're erecting a strawman.

For the natural catastrophes you list, of course some preparations will help you cope better in the immediate aftermath, but for anything really catastrophic, that seriously damages all the infrastructure or makes your residence uninhabitable, any plan that does not include as item one "try to get out ASAP" is a fantasy. And in that big catastrophe, you will ultimately be dependent on friends, family, and government or NGO assistance. You need only look at all the recent crises: a bit of prepping gets you over the initial hump, but long-term recovery is a team effort. So you better make sure that all that structure is still around and functioning well.

I don't consider serious civil disruption very likely at all in the wealthier democratic countries, unless the wealthy continue to steal from the rest.

If you think that prepping gets a hard rap, blame the nutters who have made it into a toxic apocalypse survival fantasy.

Quote:
I suppose that is just a part of human nature and is very common amongst us. I know when having similar discussions with inner city dwellers they are often fatalistic. “What happens if the power to your high rise goes out for a month or two in a hard winter? Well then I will die.” I find this an unacceptable answer. For others it OK. To each his own.
Did you think this through? How could any apartment dweller prep to survive a month in winter without power? There is only one answer: restore power. If it can't be done by local help, then outside help would be found; power companies from all over N.America sent trucks, equipment and labour for all of the serious power outages we've experienced.

Prepping is a short-term strategy to cushion the initial shock; long-term survival of anything likely to happen will come from planning and cooperation. Sitting on a pile of stuff with a gun in hand is not a complete plan.
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