Massive bleaching event on Great Barrier Reef

[Ryban]

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...eaching-impact

5th mass bleaching even in 8 years, at deeper depths than previously seen, and with ocean temperatures 0.5-1.5C higher than expected for this time of year.

When people ask me why I would leave my career at my age to go sail, this is one of the main reasons. At the going rate, many of our greatest reefs will not be around for my generation to enjoy in retirement. Maybe humanity will come together to turn the tide, but I'm not counting on it.

[Wotname]

Sailors, the thread has been reopened and you will note it has been designated as a 'hot topic'. The subject matter is relevant to cruisers however discussions about non-nautical environmental issues are not. The first two responses have been deleted as they were not pertinent to the maritime aspects of coral bleaching on the GBR. Please endeavour to stay focussed on the topic.

Cruisers Forum is an international community of people with an interest in boating and all things nautical. We strive to maintain a cordial atmosphere, free from political rants and arguments. There are plenty of other social media sites if you wish to discuss terrestrial matters.

[GordMay]

The GBR Health Update*, upon which, the 'Guardian' was reporting

* “Reef Health Update: 12 April 2024" ~ by Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
➥ https://www2.gbrmpa.gov.au/learn/ree...health-updates

Video [2:15] ➥ https://youtu.be/R8dn35R0q-k

[Paul_A]

Originally Posted by Ryban

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...eaching-impact

5th mass bleaching even in 8 years, at deeper depths than previously seen, and with ocean temperatures 0.5-1.5C higher than expected for this time of year.

When people ask me why I would leave my career at my age to go sail, this is one of the main reasons. At the going rate, many of our greatest reefs will not be around for my generation to enjoy in retirement. Maybe humanity will come together to turn the tide, but I'm not counting on it.

I just wanted to commend you for taking the plunge and going cruising at a younger age. I lived on an island in the Pacific back in 2013-2014 and saw huge, hundreds of yards across, schools of skipjack and yellowfin. And large purse seiners equipped with spotting helicopters, moored in the islands harbor. I have no doubt I may have witnessed some of the last large schools of tuna. Enjoy it now imo...

[GordMay]

The report [ https://www2.gbrmpa.gov.au/learn/ree...health-updates ], published by the ICRI, reveals that, since 2023, there has been confirmation of mass bleaching of coral reefs, in at least 53 countries, territories, and local economies.

This includes Florida, the Caribbean, the Eastern Tropical Pacific including Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia, Australia's Great Barrier Reef, large areas of the South Pacific, including Fiji, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Samoas, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Aden.

Reports have [also] been confirmed, of widespread bleaching, across parts of the Western Indian Ocean, including Tanzania, Kenya, Mauritius, the Seychelles, Tromelin, Mayotte, and off the western coast of Indonesia.

Figures suggest that since the 1950s, more than 50 per cent of the world's coral reefs have died, with predictions that up to 90 per cent may die, within the next century.

[GordMay]

NOAA Coral Reef Watch extends alert scale following extreme coral heat stress in 2023
➥ https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...-extreme-coral

Originally Posted by NOAA

“... . In the aftermath of last year’s unprecedented coral bleaching and heat stress, the scientists at NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch released an update to their satellite-based coral bleaching monitoring maps to include new risk categories ...

... The previous alert scale had five categories ranging from “No Stress” to “Bleaching Alert Level 2,” based on how far the daily temperature was above the usual summertime maximum and how long that level of heat lasted. A Level 2 alert meant that severe, widespread bleaching and death were expected on tropical coral reefs.

In October, at the height of last year’s bleaching event, large portions of the Pacific and Atlantic were engulfed in a Level 2 alert (red areas) including the Caribbean, portions of the Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern tropical Pacific.
The widespread intensity of this heat stress was the catalyst to this new update in December 2023. NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch introduced three new categories to their Bleaching Alert Levels, above the previously open-ended Level 2, as shown in shades of pink to dark purple in the bottom map. Bleaching Alert Level 5, the new highest level, is categorized as a risk of “near complete mortality”, meaning greater than 80 percent of corals in the highlighted area are at risk of dying..."

2024 CRW Satellite Bleaching Alerts
➥ https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/o...ba_alerts.html

[Mike OReilly]

The abnormally warm waters which are causing the bleaching has also led to the very active hurricane season prediction for 2024. Early predictions say the combination of a rising La Niña pattern, and the very warm oceans, is laying the groundwork for numerous named storms.

So yes indeed, best to get out there now. It can only get worse as the oceans continue to warm.

https://hurricanejournal.com/the-fir...ason-forecast/

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04.pdf

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2...ricane-season/

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The abnormally warm waters which are causing the bleaching has also led to the very active hurricane season prediction for 2024. Early predictions say the combination of a rising La Niña pattern, and the very warm oceans, is laying the groundwork for numerous named storms.

So yes indeed, best to get out there now. It can only get worse as the oceans continue to warm.

https://hurricanejournal.com/the-fir...ason-forecast/

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04.pdf

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2...ricane-season/

Indeed - Go Now!
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts ➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ts-283269.html

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Indeed - Go Now!
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts ➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ts-283269.html

This is of course only in the beginning, but I thought it was an interesting, hope allowing, small step forwards: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-...vice/103736758. It is a way of consuming CO2, and producing electricity.

Ann

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

This is of course only in the beginning, but I thought it was an interesting, hope allowing, small step forwards: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-...vice/103736758. It is a way of consuming CO2, and producing electricity.
Ann

University of Queensland researchers have built a small, proof-of-concept [nano] generator, that absorbs carbon dioxide, to make electricity.
This technology goes further than being carbon neutral – it consumes CO2 as it generates energy.
Following the success of the laboratory tests, there are two potential applications for the nanogenerator in the future.
“We could make a slightly bigger device that is portable to generate electricity to power a mobile phone or a laptop computer using CO2 from the atmosphere.
A second application on a much larger scale, would integrate this technology with an industrial CO2 capture process to harvest electricity.”

“Electricity generation from carbon dioxide adsorption by spatially nanoconfined ion separation” ~ by Zhuyuan Wang, Ting Hu, Mike Tebyetekerwa, et al
Open Access ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47040-x

[RaymondR]

And yet, we are almost at the end of the official cyclone season on Australia's east coast and have only had one mild one this season.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is also in trouble for predicting a drought year which forcast caused many farmers to de-stock in preparation for the shortage of animal feed. It has been a wet summer with consequent high feed growth and the farmers are now obliged to re-stock at high prices.

[GordMay]

The Climate Council [Australia] has a good explainer*, for the BOM’s inability, to perfectly predict this past summer’s weather:
* "El Niño and what’s actually happened this summer" ~ Climate Council
➥ https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/re...d-this-summer/

The El Niño phase, of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso), usually delivers warmer and drier conditions, for many parts of Australia. In the La Niña phase of Enso, the opposite is generally true.
Last year, a study* led by the CSIRO, of Enso cycles, going back to 1950, suggested that El Niños don’t necessarily guarantee dry periods.
* “Impacts of ENSO on Australian rainfall: what not to expect” ~ by Carly R. Tozer
➥ https://www.publish.csiro.au/es/Fulltext/ES22034

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

And yet, we are almost at the end of the official cyclone season on Australia's east coast and have only had one mild one this season.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is also in trouble for predicting a drought year which forcast caused many farmers to de-stock in preparation for the shortage of animal feed. It has been a wet summer with consequent high feed growth and the farmers are now obliged to re-stock at high prices.

With the resultant flow off of dioxin and other pollutants into the ocean being the most likely causes of mass bleaching.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

And yet, we are almost at the end of the official cyclone season on Australia's east coast and have only had one mild one this season...

?

“Reef snapshot details widespread coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef” ~ by CSIRO [17 April 2024]
➥ https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/New...t-Barrier-Reef

The fifth widespread bleaching event since 2016 is unfolding, but bleaching was just one of the disturbances on the reef over summer.

“The 2023−24 summer has seen substantial climate driven impacts across the Great Barrier Reef, with widespread coral bleaching, two cyclones and several severe flood events.

The “Reef Snapshot 2023−24"*, released today [Apr 17/24] by the Reef Authority, Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) and the CSIRO, confirms the cumulative impacts experienced across the Reef this summer have been higher than previous summers.

This also includes outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish...

... The Great Barrier Reef is an incredible ecosystem, and while it has shown its resilience time and time again, this summer has been particularly challenging. ...”

* “Reef Snaphot: summer 2023-24 and aerial survey findings released”
About ➥ https://www2.gbrmpa.gov.au/

“Reef Snapshot: Summer 2023-24" ➥ https://elibrary.gbrmpa.gov.au/jspui/handle/11017/4043

[GordMay]

On average, 11 tropical cyclones form in a season, in the Australia region, with 4 typically crossing the Australian coast, since reliable records began in 1969–70.

I don’t know why RaymondR only reports one, and CSIRO only reports two Tropical Cyclones, when I find [at least] Four*, in the 2023-24 Australian season, to date.
What’s the truth, of the matter?

In their, Seasonal outlook[1], issued October 9, 2023, for the Australian region, the BoM suggested that there was an 80% chance, that the whole region between 90°E – 160°E, would be below average, having less than the long term average of 11 tropical cyclones. They also suggested that each of their self-defined Western, Northern, North-western and Eastern regions would see a below-average amount of tropical cyclone activity.

[1] “Australian tropical cyclone season long-range forecast for 2023 to 2024"
➥ Australian tropical cyclone season long-range forecast, Australian Bureau of Meteorology


* [4] Tropical Cyclones this [past] season:
Where am I going wrong?

Tropical storm “Jasper” made landfall, in Far North Queensland, as a Category 2 tropical cyclone, on 13 December.

Tropical Cyclone “Kirrily” made landfall, over Townsville, Australia, on 25 January.

Tropical Cyclone “Lincoln” made landfall, on the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Port McArthur and the Northern Territory-Queensland border, on 16 February.

Tropical Cyclone “Megan” made landfall, on the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, on 18 March.