Gulf Stream Crossing Weather

[CarlF]

The problem is forecast accuracy. The actual wind in the Gulf Stream is often 10-15kt more than the forecast. And a 20knot north wind against the stream builds waves that look like rows of square sided houses coming at you.

I would not leave Florida with a northly forecast over 7kt checked with the actual speed at West End not above 10kt.

I'd go a bit higher, if my wife was not on board and I had a three man crew looking for "sporty" stories to tell at the bar.

[pete33458]

Originally Posted by wannacat

Perfect answer from Pete! That should end this thread!!!

WOOHOOOOOO!!!!!! Thanks!

[flyingfin]

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Check the National Data Buoy Center reports before you leave, especially Station SPGF1 (West End), Station 41010 (buoy east of Canaveral) and Station 41047 (buoy east of Bahamas) They will give you good indication of wind velocity and direction

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by flyingfin

Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Check the National Data Buoy Center reports before you leave, especially Station SPGF1 (West End), Station 41010 (buoy east of Canaveral) and Station 41047 (buoy east of Bahamas) They will give you good indication of wind velocity and direction

You can also search for observations via the NOAA site based on distance from a lat/lon position. This will give buoys, weather stations, and ships reports. I like the ships reports because they are actually at sea, whereas the stations are on land and many of the buoys close to land.

Also ASCAT gives wind speeds based on satellite telemetry.

[laika]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

You can also search for observations via the NOAA site based on distance from a lat/lon position. This will give buoys, weather stations, and ships reports. I like the ships reports because they are actually at sea, whereas the stations are on land and many of the buoys close to land.

Also ASCAT gives wind speeds based on satellite telemetry.

Thanks for that. I always wondered why there wasn't the equivalent of pireps for marine wx. Come to find there is! Very helpful. The URL..http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php

We're waiting to cross from key west to Cuba and have been following this thread as well. Good stuff.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by laika

Thanks for that. I always wondered why there wasn't the equivalent of pireps for marine wx. Come to find there is! Very helpful. The URL..http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php

We're waiting to cross from key west to Cuba and have been following this thread as well. Good stuff.

De nada. Have a safe trip.



...and I think it would be good if those whove crossed recently to post their forecasts/plan/actuals/experiences...for future reference.

[gbr]

This thread is super useful. Sitting in Fort Lauderdale at the moment, waiting for a window to cross to Bimini. Its still looking like the 9th, if the forecasts are accurate that far out. Anyone else thinking the same?

[Empty Pockets]

Tues/Wed, but seven days out is difficult to count on...

[hpeer]

We are sitting in Vero Beach. Here’s the PLAN!

Tomorrow (Saturday) top off tanks and head out Fort Pierce
Overnight to Miami No Name or there abouts.
Sit Monday until about midnight, subject to adjustment
Then cross over just N of Bimini and head for the Exumas.
Make the most of the predicted calm.

All subject to change.

[skipgundlach]

Chris Parker admires your gumption:

CROSSING:

No advised travel over next few days due to N component winds. Salty W-bound vessels may be able to sail Mon8. Travel rest of next week and weekend highly uncertain.

N&S ROUTE: NNW-NNE<NNE@10-15g19k/4-6' thru overnight; NNE@13-17g22<NNE-NE@15-20g26k/5-7'<7-9' Sat6; NE@15-20g26<ENE@17-23g30k/7-9' Sun7; ENE-ESE@18-24g30<E-ESE@10-17g22k/7-8'<3-5' Mon8... Stray showers/squalls +5k Sat6; Isolated showers/squalls +5-10k Sun7-Mon8

Safe travels! We're thinking in terms of late next week.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by hpeer

We are sitting in Vero Beach. Here’s the PLAN!

Tomorrow (Saturday) top off tanks and head out Fort Pierce
Overnight to Miami No Name or there abouts.
Sit Monday until about midnight, subject to adjustment
Then cross over just N of Bimini and head for the Exumas.
Make the most of the predicted calm.

All subject to change.

Running S close in should be fine.. however Monday is going to be lots of tacking or the engine..
Thursday may be better..

[hpeer]

Had planned to sit out Monday in Miami in any case.

That said it all looked better last night.

Will still run to Miami today and then see what develops. At least we will be in a better position.

[hpeer]

Well didn’t run to Miami today. Got a late start and a final look at gribs indicate I might be going in Biscay Channel, 25 knot easterly, 7’ following waves. NOT.

Ran down the ditch. Will stop in Lake Worth tomorrow and reassess.

Adjustments as needed

[puffcard]

We're looking at Wed or Thurs out of Miami, currently in Stuart. We usually leave before dawn and cross in the daylight.

[gbr]

It's not looking great at the moment is it? I was planning Tuesday, but that looks pants, thinking Thursday/Friday from Fort Lauderdale to Bimini. PredictWind forecasts are still not really agreeing with each other (= uncertain)