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Old 20-11-2018, 12:22   #316
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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Originally Posted by Beau.Vrolyk View Post
Each and every time this sort of article has been written, it has proven to be wrong at predicting the end (let alone even a reduction) in the size of the employed workforce.
This is a really good point.
I remember a Wall Street Journal article from about 1990 written by some respected economics professor declaring that the looming "information economy" was simply a myth, and nobody in the future was going to be gainfully employed working with mere data because data wasn't tangible and real economies created actual stuff.

Fast forward to today and we would find this idea to be laughably false.
Why isn't there a wall of shame to honor such authors after a little time shows that they couldn't have been more wrong? (maybe that would make a fun website?)
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Old 20-11-2018, 12:31   #317
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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...
Speaking of dignity, that is a third **very** important result of being "employed" in the modern world.

Being a student or artist is a workaround unavailable for many.

The effects of the right wing's shameful brainwashing for decades, demonizing those dependent on government subsidies, myths about rentiers being "job creators", the whole trickle-down scam. . .
LOL, I'm pretty sure the work ethic drilled into my head was a tradition from cave man times, before wings of any side. You know- work real hard at hunting and gathering so that you can enjoy a little cave painting with the missus on a full belly?
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Old 20-11-2018, 13:23   #318
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

I guess I should have specified, the number of good jobs is on the way down. And by good, I mean allowing the person to maintain a middle class status. Sure, there are lots of jobs currently being created, but they are mostly shyte jobs.

Speaking of assumptions, there is a huge one embedded in the capitalist system that says there will always be enough (or nearly enough) jobs. As the story goes, disruption happens, and some people lose their jobs. But there will be an equal number of new jobs created. Why would this be? How can this be?

Almost all the job growth in the developed economies have happened in the low end areas. These jobs are also often the easiest to automate. But the coming wave of automation is going to hit traditionally protected areas; so called white collar jobs. Ripe for the picking are doctors, lawyers, accountants, financial planners, engineers, designers, etc. AI is nipping a the heels of many of these professions.

The ďwork ethicĒ is actually a relatively recent sociological development. I donít have time to pull all the references, but it goes part-and-parcel with the Industrial Revolution, capitalism, and the demand for profit. This is why it was so foreign to most indigenous communities when Western Europeans clashed with them.

But I am not suggesting we do away with work. Only that we disassociate it with the ability to stay alive. And yes, I would include healthcare and pensions in the mix.
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Old 20-11-2018, 16:24   #319
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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Lone sailors is a diminishing breed.
Hey now, them thar's fightnin' words. I had forgotten to check into this thread for a while so just catching up now, but just want to say that I came across a lot of lone sailors this summer when sailing to Hawaii and back. They might have been lone, but they certainly didn't seem either lonely or unhappy; in fact, most seemed to have normal land-based relationships/loving spouses. I think we need to rethink the solo sailor as something pathological or dying out.
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Old 20-11-2018, 16:41   #320
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

Well lots of YouTubers are getting paid to sail around in bikinis, so that's something. . .

See back on topic 8-)
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Old 20-11-2018, 17:02   #321
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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I guess I should have specified, the number of good jobs is on the way down. And by good, I mean allowing the person to maintain a middle class status. Sure, there are lots of jobs currently being created, but they are mostly shyte jobs.
....
Almost all the job growth in the developed economies have happened in the low end areas.
Not necessarily true.
I believe you would have to specify a particular country.
It looks to be an even mix on the attached graph for the US. (although I'm not a huge fan of government data)
Plenty of low paid food jobs are coming along with plenty of high paid computer jobs. The farmers/production workers (negative growth not shown) would seem to be migrating to service occupations.
4 out of the 10 top growth job categories show median salaries above the US median income level, with 2 of them WAY above.
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Old 20-11-2018, 17:06   #322
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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Hey now, them thar's fightnin' words. I had forgotten to check into this thread for a while so just catching up now, but just want to say that I came across a lot of lone sailors this summer when sailing to Hawaii and back. They might have been lone, but they certainly didn't seem either lonely or unhappy; in fact, most seemed to have normal land-based relationships/loving spouses. I think we need to rethink the solo sailor as something pathological or dying out.
This is an interesting observation!
Was there any common thread among them, regarding destinations and passage durations?
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Old 20-11-2018, 17:15   #323
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

Why do people always try to turn these threads into political rantings and not stop ranting until they get in the last word, which then solidifies a winning argument in their mind?

Maybe people just feel like doing other activities these days. I’m sure horseback riding is also on the decline just like taking music lessons. Tastes change.
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Old 20-11-2018, 17:30   #324
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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It looks to be an even mix on the attached graph for the US.
Look at the classifications of jobs added since 2009.

The vast majority are "precariat" gig economy type.

Not fulltime, and / or

no benefits, sick days, holidays etc,

often fraud-1099 so not even SS/unemployment,

little predictability on hours worked (neither quantity nor shift time).

Another tidbit
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/..._pph1RFVE_.gif
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Old 20-11-2018, 17:41   #325
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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Why do people always try to turn these threads into political rantings and not stop ranting until they get in the last word, which then solidifies a winning argument in their mind?
Well sure it's a rabbit hole, but defining how jobs and income trends affect the average Joe's ability to afford a cruising boat is interesting to some. What those trends actually are and why they are that way?... many different opinions on this- again, interesting to some. I don't see any global warming yet: no need to fret.
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Old 20-11-2018, 17:44   #326
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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Originally Posted by john61ct View Post
Look at the classifications of jobs added since 2009.

The vast majority are "precariat" gig economy type.

Not fulltime, and / or

no benefits, sick days, holidays etc,

often fraud-1099 so not even SS/unemployment,

little predictability on hours worked (neither quantity nor shift time).

Another tidbit
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/..._pph1RFVE_.gif
Your graph does not directly illustrate the items you list.
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Old 20-11-2018, 18:41   #327
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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Originally Posted by cyan View Post
Not necessarily true.
I believe you would have to specify a particular country.
It looks to be an even mix on the attached graph for the US. (although I'm not a huge fan of government data)
Plenty of low paid food jobs are coming along with plenty of high paid computer jobs. The farmers/production workers (negative growth not shown) would seem to be migrating to service occupations.
4 out of the 10 top growth job categories show median salaries above the US median income level, with 2 of them WAY above.
Hereís the actual data for this graph. Itís a mixed bag, for sure. Yes, there are four out of 10 that show median incomes at over the $32k US national median (although one just squeaks in there). Half of the top growth jobs have incomes below this median. And if you add up the actual expected growth numbers, the majority is in the under-median category.

And as I said, many of these higher-than-median jobs will soon succumb to AI advancement.
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Old 20-11-2018, 19:06   #328
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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Hereís the actual data for this graph. Itís a mixed bag, for sure. Yes, there are four out of 10 that show median incomes at over the $32k US national median (although one just squeaks in there). Half of the top growth jobs have incomes below this median. And if you add up the actual expected growth numbers, the majority is in the under-median category.

And as I said, many of these higher-than-median jobs will soon succumb to AI advancement.
Yep, that's where I got the data.
I think you are on to something about AI. There are legal professionals I know who are already affected. Yet, AI is also creating tons of jobs for the nerds who are creating AI. There could be whole new professions... for us nerds, anyway. I hope to be floating somewhere far away before the machines take over.
If someone comes up with AI weather routing, I'll be nervous if it's free...
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Old 20-11-2018, 19:34   #329
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

Was reading about the '79 Fastnet race when I came across the following statement, which doesn't prove anything per se except that maybe there was such a "boom" of cruisers in the 70s: "The first Fastnet was held in 1925, when only nine boats took part. By 1979, the number competing had multiplied to 303. Greater affluence, a huge increase in the popularity of sailing and the arrival of fibreglass had resulted in a yachting boom. However, many of the sailors who took part in the 1979 race had only had experience of weekend club-racing round buoys before they entered the Fastnet."
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Old 20-11-2018, 19:54   #330
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Re: Cruising Sailboats: a Dying Breed?

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This is an interesting observation!
Was there any common thread among them, regarding destinations and passage durations?
Well, many were associated with the solo race to Kauai but one just happened to be there for the summer and another had been cruising in Bora Bora or something like that before heading to the PNW. Of the others who did the race, one had previously sailed to New Zealand from California, another was often sailing solo to the Channel Islands, and the rest sail solo on SF Bay all the time. Another four sailed back solo from Kauai to California. Though this was associated with a group event, it seems there might be more solo sailors out there than people realize especially those around my age who maybe find it difficult for friends/family/spouses to take off from work and would rather not take on strangers as crew.
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