BREXIT Impact on Saling

[GoingWalkabout]

A number of questions come to mind the day after the United Kingdom has chosen to leave the European Union.

1. Will contagion spread to other EU members such as France, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal and Italy? If we are seeing the first domino fall heralding the dissolution of the European Union itself the first casualty will be the Schengen. As salors still have to check in at each country port, the doing away of a Europe wide regime that restricts how long you can stay in EU waters will in my opinion be a good thing.

2. The Euro vs Dollar has fallen dramatically. Are we looking at a parity rate or even a slide bellow the US Dollar? This could have a very big effect on the buying power of those with US DOLLARS as Greek boats become even cheaper to buy. Of course this will have a knock on effect to boat sales values as far afield as the Caribbean. Basic economics. It can be said that a high Euro has in fact artificially kept higher than what should be, the resale price of boats.

These are just my immediate thoughts on the implications of the British exit from the UK. I would be very interested in others thoughts.

[tuffr2]

Now is the day to buy with US dollars. I believe things will eventually stabilize and get back to the new normal. No one knows what that will be but it will not all be bad. Some good has to come out of the Brexit.

Sent from my SM-G360V using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[TrekTech]

It is my humble belief that the BREXIT and the current political morass is the beginning of the end of "globalization". I won't be offended if anyone disagrees with me. Select people and politicians have made a lot of money over the last 20 years when offshoring talent came into vogue. They have skin in the game of globalization and have been strongly defending it.

US companies expanding overseas have had their profits killed this year due to the currency wars that have been running. Still, a few people are making a lot of money trading in the negative interest rates. Who in their right mind believes that negative interest rates can have any positive effect on anybody's economy?

Maybe each country can become more independent and generate some national pride. Diversity is good. Regulations may decrease. If so, that may help cruising in the end.

[skipmac]

Are you aware that the Schengen Agreement and the EU are two completely separate things?

The Schengen Agreement was a travel/visa plan between a number of countries. Most were also members of the EU but several signers to the Schengen Agreement were not EU members and several EU members did not sign the Schengen Agreement. The UK has never been part of the Schengen Agreement.

So whatever happens to the EU may or may not have an impact on the Schengen Agreement.

[TurninTurtle]

Originally Posted by tuffr2

Now is the day to buy with US dollars. I believe things will eventually stabilize and get back to the new normal. No one knows what that will be but it will not all be bad. Some good has to come out of the Brexit.

Sent from my SM-G360V using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

Got it backward there...

You buy the currency that is down with the currency that is up...

NOTHING is changed yet.

Estimates are it will take 2 years for the actual process of the Brexit from EU.

Wait about 2 days... buy Euros... then wait about 6 months and sell those Euros.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Are you aware that the Schengen Agreement and the EU are two completely separate things?

The Schengen Agreement was a travel/visa plan between a number of countries. Most were also members of the EU but several signers to the Schengen Agreement were not EU members and several EU members did not sign the Schengen Agreement. The UK has never been part of the Schengen Agreement.

So whatever happens to the EU may or may not have an impact on the Schengen Agreement.

One of the very big issues in the BREXIT vote for the British was the free flow of persons accross borders. The flood of populations from Africa and the Mid East has caused a political and social earthquake accross all of Europe and the UK. This along with a desire to self govern, was the motivation for the British to leave the EU.

While you are correct that the Schengen treaty is seperate from the EU it is very much a child of the EU. Given the backlash against open borders shown by the BREXIT vote it would be foolish to think this doesn't have implications for free movement open border polucies.

Hungary has erected borders and fences. The Dutch are fed up about open borders and are now talking about leaving the EU. Such movements are now gaining popular support all accross Europe.

As Schengen was a child of the EU, the collapse of the EU will indeed see the collapse of Schengen. It's a question which will collapse first in my opinion.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by TurninTurtle

Got it backward there...

You buy the currency that is down with the currency that is up...

NOTHING is changed yet.

Estimates are it will take 2 years for the actual process of the Brexit from EU.

Wait about 2 days... buy Euros... then wait about 6 months and sell those Euros.

What are you talking about. Have you seen the overnight fall of the Euro?

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by TurninTurtle

Got it backward there...

You buy the currency that is down with the currency that is up...

I think he got it right. Read again, he said time to buy with dollars. Since dollars are now more valuable then it is the currency that is "up".

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

What are you talking about. Have you seen the overnight fall of the Euro?

?????? never mind the Euro, the Pound is the one that has dropped, so buy Sterling now and sell it in a fortnight when the dust has settled and everyone realises nothing is going to happen for years.

Right wing parties in the northern European countries have been watching this with keen interest. The UK may not be the last to have a vote.

Pete

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by skipmac

I think he got it right. Read again, he said time to buy with dollars. Since dollars are now more valuable then it is the currency that is "up".

True. Also a good time to buy a boat in Europe. But given the strong possibility that this is only the first shoe to drop and the high prospects others will follow, then we will see even greater falls in the Euro. And who knows, Countries like Greece may well drop out of the European currency even before the total collapse of the EU. And let's not forget about the looming Italian loan crises and it's effect on the Euro.

England has just dropped a big Rock in the pool and it's ripples will have effects well beyond its borders.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

One of the very big issues in the BREXIT vote for the British was the free flow of persons accross borders. The flood of populations from Africa and the Mid East has caused a political and social earthquake accross all of Europe and the UK. This along with a desire to self govern, was the motivation for the British to leave the EU.

While you are correct that the Schengen treaty is seperate from the EU it is very much a child of the EU. Given the backlash against open borders shown by the BREXIT vote it would be foolish to think this doesn't have implications for free movement open border polucies.

Hungary has erected borders and fences. The Dutch are fed up about open borders and are now talking about leaving the EU. Such movements are now gaining popular support all accross Europe.

As Schengen was a child of the EU, the collapse of the EU will indeed see the collapse of Schengen. It's a question which will collapse first in my opinion.

But there wasn't a free flow of people across the borders from EU to UK. Since the UK was not in the Schengen you do have to clear immigration traveling to UK from EU. Remember the refugee camps in France at the ports with people trying to sneak onto trucks to the UK? The biggest issue with immigrants in the UK are people from the former British colonies and Commonwealth countries.

Regardless I don't see it as a foregone conclusion that the EU will collapse and if it does that the Shengen will follow. The whole situation is far to complex with far to many variables to predict at this point.

[rognvald]

Originally Posted by TrekTech

It is my humble belief that the BREXIT and the current political morass is the beginning of the end of "globalization". I won't be offended if anyone disagrees with me. Select people and politicians have made a lot of money over the last 20 years when offshoring talent came into vogue. They have skin in the game of globalization and have been strongly defending it.

US companies expanding overseas have had their profits killed this year due to the currency wars that have been running. Still, a few people are making a lot of money trading in the negative interest rates. Who in their right mind believes that negative interest rates can have any positive effect on anybody's economy?

Maybe each country can become more independent and generate some national pride. Diversity is good. Regulations may decrease. If so, that may help cruising in the end.

TT,
What is left of the once great British Empire has risen today like a Phoenix from the flames. Can you imagine a country/people with a proud 2,500 plus year old History who want to reclaim their autonomy, culture and national identity? Where for the last 60 plus years it has been politically incorrect to express pride and patriotism for your country and watch the tenets of your Civilization been torn asunder daily. Tribalism is alive and well in Great Britain and may perhaps save her from the imminent multicultural doom that is tearing her and other European countries apart at their seams through terrorism and disintegrating values in the name of a "Big Brother One World Order." And for us Americans . . . it is coming soon to a theater near you. This can only be good for Great Britain and for those who plan to cruise her waters in the future. Much success on your transition.

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by skipmac

But there wasn't a free flow of people across the borders from EU to UK. Since the UK was not in the Schengen you do have to clear immigration traveling to UK from EU. Remember the refugee camps in France at the ports with people trying to sneak onto trucks to the UK? The biggest issue with immigrants in the UK are people from the former British colonies and Commonwealth countries.

Regardless I don't see it as a foregone conclusion that the EU will collapse and if it does that the Shengen will follow. The whole situation is far to complex with far to many variables to predict at this point.

Under EU directions from Brussels the UK was being told they must allow over a million "refugees " in. The people of the UK said no with the BREXIT vote yesterday.

I don't know why, but I do enjoy watching dominoes fall.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Pete7

?????? never mind the Euro, the Pound is the one that has dropped, so buy Sterling now and sell it in a fortnight when the dust has settled and everyone realises nothing is going to happen for years.

That could be a very good idea. Right now the market is being driven by fear and panic. Reality will set in shortly.

[grae]

Have to admit I just quickly paid my daughters uni fees for next year (she's at St Andrews in Scotland) and it's about $2k cheaper than last year even with the annual uplift!