Weather Odd in Caribbean

[zeehag]

y'all may wanna watch the forming blob at cape verde islands--is looking fierce and huge for this time of year---- could get interesting.....

[osirissail]

If you are looking at the eastern Atlantic satellite loops it is quite normal for large convective (rain storm) systems to roll off the west African coast day after day. Almost all of them either join in the ITCZ system or dissipate before getting past the Cape Verde's. What you are seeing is very typical of what you see this time of year and will increase in frequency in August and September.
- - If you look at series of satellite loops across the tropical Atlantic you will see the location of the ITCZ clearly shown by the snaking line of rain storms stretching from Africa to South America or Trinidad/Grenada in the summer.
- - Only storm systems above 10 degrees north, this time of year, have the potential to develop into tropical storm systems and normally they do not even do that until they are about 30 degrees west.
- - So don't get your shorts in a bunch about what is rolling off Africa until it gets to about halfway across the tropical Atlantic. Even if those storms that do persist they will most likely curve up the middle of the Atlantic quite a way east of the Caribbean islands - unless - the mid-Atlantic High is blocking them, which is currently the forecast situation for the next week to 10 days.

[osirissail]

Time for a new one to come along. Things have been too laid back. Check the tropical wave just southwest of the Cape Verdes at 10N & 30W. This one very possible could affect the Windwards as the Mid Atlantic High is forecast to move southwest forcing the possible storm to stay down and travel west versus hooking north like the two preceding it.

[Palarran]

It looks pretty Scarry!!

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

[MarkJ]

Its funny to have 4 on the screen at once.

Invest 93L the one closest to Cape Verde Is has model tracks showing BVI's and Leewards again... oh, and Hispanola as usual.

The models agree with you that the Atlantic High will keep it further south than Invest 92L which they plot to recurve on the western edge of the High. (And AL94 to recurve immediately)

I have full tanks and a clearly plotted course the hell outa here if I need

[osirissail]

Current GFS model has it crossing MarkJ's area on or about the 17th. But not intensifying beyond a TS. But as with all far out forecasts it is subject to retroactive change.

[s/v Jedi]

For all who still use Windows OS : I am still giving away this free software for downloading weather from the Internet (like a super fast weather-fax-emulator). It's database is filled with the exact same images as the Wx fax from New Orleans so ready for the Caribbean.

I wrote this software myself just for fun. It here : http://www.sv-jedi.org/sv_jedi/WxDow...stribution.zip

just unzip it and run it just by double clicking it. It creates a subfolder with date&time as name every time you run the download so you get a decent archive without mixing it all up.

ciao!
Nick.

[landonshaw]

MarkJ, it says you are in Grenada? where are ou anchored? I am in secret harbor, Aloisius

[landonshaw]

vmohome, please don't forget Ivan a few years ago took out Grenada

[s/v Jedi]

Originally Posted by landonshaw

vmohome, please don't forget Ivan a few years ago took out Grenada

Exactly, and every forecast said it was gonna go north and then every time a hurricane hunter went in to locate the eye, it's position was corrected south so that it actually travelled west all the time and hit the south coast of Grenada head on.

Make sure you plot the positions from the hurricane hunter in your nav plotter and check the actual course yourself. I would go so far as to say you better ignore the forecast course because your own bet has same chance to be correct.

We survived Ivan at anchor in Mt Hartman Bay.... it was bad.

Edit: only trust the positions from these guys... flying right through the eye in this photo:

cheers,
Nick.

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by landonshaw

MarkJ, it says you are in Grenada? where are ou anchored? I am in secret harbor, Aloisius

Hi Aloisius,

I am outside St Georges at the moment but heading back to Prickly Bay in the next few days.

If you can walk over the hill to the Tiki Bar sometime we could have a beer and say hello

Give me a yell on here or on #68

Current GFS model has it crossing MarkJ's area on or about the 17th. But not intensifying beyond a TS.

Mostly a bit north of us. Martinque etc. But I don't have a polt of the GFS Model, where you get it from?

[landonshaw]

we are at the tiki bar every Tues night for trivia night. I will call you on 68 tues morning. What is your boat name?

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by landonshaw

we are at the tiki bar every Tues night for trivia night. I will call you on 68 tues morning. What is your boat name?

Boat name is Sea Life but I'm thinking of changing it to "Miserable Expensive Steaming Pile of Crap".

LOL

No, I'm not, she's my cutie


Mark

[landonshaw]

I thought i use to have a link that would show the different forecast all plotted out to show most favorable to least. Does anyone have a website that does that?

[zeehag]

stormpulse has patterns for projected paths of storms--looks like one could be a consideration for caribean and gulf--the others seem to be going up the atlantic coast---we have one forming, mebbe, but with luck will go out to sea....