OK, this season is stacking up just fine...
I am watching Irma with interest (closest to me, ATM), and she is still looking like she is going to in fact impact the US mainland
East Coast, and either in Florida (like,
Miami perhaps) or if the
Bermuda High fails, the Carolinas will be on the short list. It all depends on when the High weakens and how much impetus is generated by the
Gulf Stream (which still is not even a factor yet - if you think the storm is strong now, wait until it hits that
current and see the explosion of growth).
Fortunately, the difference in temperatures between the GS and the water around it is not as high as it was when Andrew came in IIRC, but that can change, albeit slowly. Maybe we will get lucky and the difference will remain a little less? The
difference is what counts, rather than what the temperature actually is.
Additionally, there is a ridge building over Florida, and depending on where the storm is when it meets that ridge, Irma will either deflect to the North or it will intensify further and continue on the path she is on at that meeting. There are SO many things interacting with this one, it is getting more complicated by the day.
I am heading to the yard tomorrow to pull
Equinox' mast though, just in case. I don't need her mast tearing off the weakened
cabin top and turning my darling into a herring tin, then filling her with rainwater and yard debris/tree limbs and leaves. I would not be as worried, but the
core of the
cabin top has collapsed internally, and the increase in the
rigging play has me concerned that it will be sloppy enough that even a near miss may weaken the step enough to allow it to get away in one direction or another, and rock it free enough to tear the outer skin of the roof free (along with the mast shoe).
The yard master told me this morning that he is hauling dozens of
boats out, and that if Irma is a dead strike or even just south of us at Cat 5, having the boat out of the water or in will be of little consequence, and that the mast will likely come loose in Cat 5 or even Cat 4 winds. I was afraid that was the case before I even asked him. He agreed to schedule a slot for me to pull it. I will gain a couple benefits though. First, it allowed me to pull the trigger on this mast pull and allows me to
repair some things I wanted to fix in the mast as well as that frustrating step issue.
The best part of the situation is that my
Equinox is perched higher up than the
storage area
boats are, so if the
drydock area floods, it will fill the lower areas for a bit. Equinox should remain dry and above water until the entire yard is otherwise pretty much completely flooded. The down side (for me) is that should that happen, she will be on an island and otherwise somewhat isolated from contact by me. At least it will keep other boats from impacting her?
I am on a river, so it will be surge that gets her rather than direct winds, most likely (assuming winds are not terribly strong).
There is indeed another storm coming in afterward, and from what I am seeing, it is also ramping up, and on the same path.
Funny thing about these storms, though, one makes a path for the next, but the atmosphere can get pretty churned up after one passes, and it can do very odd things to the track of the one following if the "trauma" in the atmosphere is significant enough.
The stronger storms seem to do more of this than weaker ones, so we may get lucky in Florida and the Southeast US, and the one following will pass by harmlessly with only some surf and light winds. It would be nice. However, there is ALSO another storm forming after
that one too... I additionally saw a few tropical waves over the
Cape Verde Islands, so... Nice tropical year, relative to numbers of storms, but not so nice relative to the damage they are doing.
In your prayers, remember that the Northeast US will be on the receiving end of much of this weather too, beyond initial impact,
especially the fleets of ships in the Labrador area and across to the GIUK. The North Sea and bordering countries are definitely going to feel the aftermath of all these...
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