DENNIS

[GordMay]

TS “Dennis”

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

At 8:00 AM EDT (1200 Zulu) Tropical Storm ‘Dennis’ was located near Lat. 15.2 N x Lon. 70.8 W, or about 255 miles (410 km) SSW of Port Au Prince, Haiti, and about 440 miles (710 km) ESE of Kingston, Jamaica.
‘Dennis’ is moving WNW at about 16 mph (26 kn/hr), and will likely approach Jamaica early Thursday.
Current wind estimates are 65 mph sustained, with higher gusts. ‘Dennis’ could become a hurricane later today.

More at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[GordMay]

At 9:00PM (2200 Zulu), the NHC placed Hurricane ‘Dennis’ near Lat. 16.1N x Lon. 72.5W, or about 315 miles (505 km) ESE of Kingston, Jamaica - and currently moving WNW (292 degrees) at 14 mph (22 kn/hr).
This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 Hrs.
Dennis is a Category 1 Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds are 80 mph (130 km/hr). Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Haiti, Jamaica & Cuba seem to be Denns' first targets ...

[GordMay]

Hurricane Dennis is making landfall along the southeast coast of Cuba with sustained winds of 130mph, just shy of Category 4 status. The only inhibitor of further strengthening is land interaction. Since Dennis is expected to remain on a general west-northwest or northwest heading over the next 36 hours, some modest weakening will occur. Dennis will emerge from western Cuba and enter the southeast Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 in all likelihood, but restrengthening will probably take shape just west of the Florida Keys. It is quite obvious that Dennis has traveled a bit more northerly than initially forecast.

Once near the central US Gulf Coast, the hurricane may either sustain itself or weaken slightly, as modest southwest winds along the periphery of the subtropical ridge begin to inhibit Dennis' outflow. However, Dennis will likely be a major hurricane at landfall despite the slight increase in shear.

The forecast track still points toward a western Florida Panhandle, but those west toward New Orleans and Eastward along the Western coast of florida will still need to watch Dennis.

The trend to watch for over the next 12-18 hours will be the path of Dennis in relation to the coast of Cuba, and its interaction with the ridge over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. If Dennis begins to skirt the southern end of Cuba, then the more westerly end of our zone would be more likely to be affected. Moreover, a direct central Cuba landfall would suggest a higher Florida Keys threat , and a more likely chance of a direct hit on the western Florida Panhandle later on. We will have a much better grasp on Dennis tomorrow afternoon as we begin to see where exactly the center will be moving into the Gulf.

For current Atlantic surface analysis charts Goto: http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/surface.shtml#sfatl
Click on:
1. Plot Chart Analysis 0-90W Prelim
Size: 101.9K - Updated: Fri Jul 8 09:39:26 2005 UTC
2. Pressure Analysis 00UTC National Hurricane Center, Miami 20S-40N,0-90W
Size: 64.7K - Updated: Fri Jul 8 04:47:39 2005 UTC

For weatherfax chart Goto: http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/