Chesapeake Folks - Worried About Earl ?

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by schoonerdog

A delivery skipper?!?! Perfect in case I go into early labor and need some delivery help aboard the boat

Actually been there done that. Y'all just call. *grin*

Originally Posted by RiverRat

And the Chesapeake Bay Magazine said "Here in Annapolis, we’re keeping an eye on the Naval Academy fleet; if it moves up the Severn River, we’ll know to expect trouble!"

Although, I don't think you can see them from Back Creek.

Don't need to see them - we're all looking at the same data. If you wait for the 44s to move you're too late for some of the good spots.

[RiverRat]

Don't need to see them - we're all looking at the same data. If you wait for the 44s to move you're too late for some of the good spots.

Good point!

I must say, we got very lucky when we bought our house on the Magothy. It's on a 'hurricane hole' and is fairly protected. Now we just need a 'real' boat...

Kitty

[benet250]

Hello
no it is not too late, however being pregnant and this close I would seriously consider taking care of yourself first. the biggest problem facing people up the bay is going to be the storm surge, (Gloria, Bonnie, Isabel), if the storm takes the western track yes we will get nailed however it it stays to the East then we will get some wind and rain and maybe 2 ft storm surge,

[Auspicious]

Even the model with the west-most track shows the eye of Earl offshore. That means we'll be seeing North winds and low water, not a storm surge, on the Chesapeake.

We're looking at some windy and rainy days but not surge. I'll put money on stepping up to the dock, not down.

[AnchorageGuy]

All of the forecasts here in the Baltimore Annapolis area are adamant that the Baltimore area will see no affects from Earl. The NWS forecasts partly sunny and low 80s for Friday and Saturday. The Upper Chesapeake Bay Marine forecast for Friday and Saturday is,
FRI
N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT.

FRI NIGHT
W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT.

SAT
W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.

SAT NIGHT
NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.

So it looks like Saturday will be a good day to go sailing. Chuck

[benet250]

We'll see, Gloria was off shore however, I remember going down to my boat at six o clock that night and walking (sloshing) out the dock, I kept my boat at a private marina on Deep Creek right off the Magothy, the water was on my shins and was very warm (funny how one remembers the little things), I also remember two boats over at the Cape St Claire Marina went down as they were tied too tight.
Ron

[benet250]

This is a portion of the internal critique of the NWS regarding Isabel.

Isabel’s storm tide was 1 to 3 feet higher than was forecast, especially in the northern
Chesapeake Bay and Potomac Basins including Baltimore, Annapolis, and Washington. Fell’s
Point in Baltimore, the U.S. Naval Academy and downtown Annapolis, and the Belle View
neighborhoods of northern Fairfax County, Virginia experienced severe storm surge flooding.

Table 1

provides measured storm tide crests at several sites in North Carolina, Virginia, and
Maryland. From observations of debris lines and data from tide gages, the storm tide was 5 to 11 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum 1929 (NGVD) across North Carolina’s Outer
Banks. The storm tide measured from 6 to 9 feet NGVD in the Chesapeake Bay area and the
tidal Potomac River Basin. Many NWS customers expressed confusion over exactly what the
NWS forecasts meant, whether it was on top of normal tides or mean lower low water, or mean
sea level and at what datum. The North American Vertical Datum (NAVD) of 1988 is an
alternative datum in use along the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Storm tide measurements using the NAVD can be obtained by subtracting approximately 1 foot from measurements using NGVD.
Your call,
Ron

[AnchorageGuy]

That is good information but it has little to do with Earl and the original question. Earl is a totally different storm on a totally different track with totally different influences from todays through Fridays weather patterns. Chuck

[FrankZ]

They are different storms.. the people making those calls might not be though.

[AnchorageGuy]

Originally Posted by FrankZ

They are different storms.. the people making those calls might not be though.

You are right about that Frank and no one has been a bigger critic of the NWS than I have been, they know me by name. But in the 7 years since Isabel they do have some additional satellites, newer modeling systems with reasonable input and a better track record on these storms 72 hours out. As with all weather, it is unpredictable, but for those of us with a lot of experience with these storms, we have personally been through 15 on the boat including Isabel, we err on the side of caution. I am just not feeling it for the Chesapeake Bay, especially in the Baltimore area. There are always going to be those that want to spread doom and gloom every time there is a cloud formation in the Atlantic this time of year. To answer the original posters question, in my opinion, they should not be worried, just watchful. Chuck

[FrankZ]

I am watching as well.. I figure in the end things will be ok, but I keep thinking this is gonna mess up me weekend plans.

[AnchorageGuy]

Don't count out the weekend unless you are heading north. By Friday morning we will all know for sure and the weekend will be fantastic. The weather is always great after these storms pass by. Kind of natures way to give us break for the clean up. Chuck

[FrankZ]

Looking more south than north.

Of course there are so many things that can go wrong with these things.. not just the weather being an issue.

Got my fingers crossed though.

[benet250]

I think that as much as we would like to rely on the NWS forecasting one always prepares for the worst and hopes for the best, there is no doubt that these are storms but on different tracks and with different parameters however my point is the NWS is not infallible, even though they have improved.
Ron

[sneuman]

I was pouring through some data on an excellent site: www.stormpulse.com

If forecasts hold, Earl will track through the Chesapeake Bay area in a very similar way and at a very similar strength to Bob (1991):
Hurricane Bob, 1991 / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

Bob did some damage in Ocean City, but didn't affect the mid or northern Chessie much.

Likewise, in 2008 Hanna went right through the middle of the Chessie as a T.S. I'm in the Magothy and I remember thinking at the time that Hanna was not nearly as bad as the Nor'easter we had earlier the same year.
(Hurricane Hanna, 2008 / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping)

On, the other hand, if Earl bears west even a little bit, it could be a seriously different story. Better to plan for the worst and hope for the best.