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CoopAir · 10-03-2015, 08:02

I am looking to visit Hogsty Reef in an 18' Outrage (day trip, but ready to overnight in an emergency) and being that this remote area is in open ocean, over 40 nm from land, I'll of course need to pick my day very carefully in terms of the weather!!

Ideally, I am looking for the best month that would give me the highest odds of 2 or more consecutive days with winds of 8-10 knots or less, specifically in the SE Bahamas.

As some of you probably know, it is common for the stiff trades to be blowing in the 15-20 kt range in the SE Bahamas, while the central and NW Bahamas have winds in the 5-10 knot range, so in order to make this trip, I'll need the trades to abate substantially for 48 hours or more.

Some have told me that May is the best month, while others have told me Sep or Oct. Furthermore, I've been told that Aug is best.

Being in hurricane season will not make a difference since I'll be flying my single engine Cessna to Acklins Island to start, and can fly back to Florida in a matter of 3-4 hours IF a 'Cane is coming, so no worries about that.

So, what month should I am for to give me the best odds??

I'll be sitting around Ackins for at least 10 days, PATIENTLY waiting for a window, so just want to know what month to choose.

Thanks very much!

CSY Man · 10-03-2015, 08:46

I have seen calm conditions in May and in June, but a weather window could open anytime really.
Even if you get a good forecast with settled weather (ESE) you could still encounter local thunderstorms with gusts 40 to 50 out of no-where.

Make sure that Cessna is tied down too, I have seen what strong winds can do to light airplanes being parked outside

CoopAir · 10-03-2015, 08:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSY Man

I have seen calm conditions in May and in June, but a weather window could open anytime really.
Even if you get a good forecast with settled weather (ESE) you could still encounter local thunderstorms with gusts 40 to 50 out of no-where.

Make sure that Cessna is tied down too, I have seen what strong winds can do to light airplanes being parked outside

Most certainly! But at least storms like that are almost always isolated, and easy to circumnavigate, not to mention I can see the towering cumulus building miles away and either retreat or stay put for an hour!

This is why I always carry 150% or more of the required fuel as well!

CSY Man · 10-03-2015, 08:57

Yeah, fuel is life, especially over water.
Got a few thousand hours of single engine time and whenever I ventured over water the engine would start running rough..

As for seeing the towering CU, yes day VFR you can. At night radar would be useful.

18' Outrage, is that a Boston Whaler?
if so, at least it won't sink if ya get swamped.

CoopAir · 10-03-2015, 09:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSY Man

Yeah, fuel is life, especially over water.
Got a few thousand hours of single engine time and whenever I ventured over water the engine would start running rough..

As for seeing the towering CU, yes day VFR you can. At night radar would be useful.

18' Outrage, is that a Boston Whaler?
if so, at least it won't sink if ya get swamped.

I never would fly at night in the Bahamas anyway, ditto for operating the boat!

I gotta say, I feel MUCH more comfortable flying single engine over warm tropical water, than I do over land at night.

I always laugh when pilots flying piston singles from up north to the Bahamas are disportortionally worried about flying over water, yet don't even give a second thought to flying over the rugged Appalachians on their way there!

Of course, I always carry a raft, inflatable lifevest, EPIRB, and Sat Phone.

Yes, the 18' Outrage is indeed a BW.

CSY Man · 10-03-2015, 09:19

yeah, warm water is survivable if you live through the ditching

I flew single engine(C-185) from The coast of Alaska to Nunivak Island in the Bering Sea. Being 135 I had to stay within gliding distance and climbed to 15,000 for the 30 mile hop.
Good thing the motor kept running...

What kind of plane are you flying?

(you know the old trick for flying single engine at night in mountaines terrain right? If you loose your engine and start gliding down, turn on your landing light.
If you don't like what you see, turn off your landing light

)

CoopAir · 10-03-2015, 09:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSY Man

yeah, warm water is survivable if you live through the ditching

I flew single engine(C-185) from The coast of Alaska to Nunivak Island in the Bering Sea. Being 135 I had to stay within gliding distance and climbed to 15,000 for the 30 mile hop.
Good thing the motor kept running...

What kind of plane are you flying?

(you know the old trick for flying single engine at night in mountaines terrain right? If you loose your engine and start gliding down, turn on your landing light.
If you don't like what you see, turn off your landing light

)

Just a C-172, nothing too fancy.

I go bend over backwards to fly only during the daylight hours anywhere. Not so much to do with safety or confidence, but more to do with being able to take pics and video.

CSY Man · 10-03-2015, 09:50

Aye, the mighty C-172.
Got a bunch of hours there, good airplane.

Bohemian17 · 11-03-2015, 18:24

Hope you have twin engines on the boat cuz if it breaks nobody is going to come and get you.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

CoopAir · 12-03-2015, 08:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bohemian17

Hope you have twin engines on the boat cuz if it breaks nobody is going to come and get you.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

Ahh heck, the thought of the only engine quitting on the boat, on my way to or from Hogsty is very COMFORTING compared to what might happen if the only engine quit while flying over the same route at 5000 ft in my Cessna 172!!

BruM · 12-03-2015, 10:05

don't you have wind charts???

CoopAir · 12-03-2015, 10:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by BruM

don't you have wind charts???

Unfortunatly, I've been trying hard to find them online, but without success.

Any good links?

Thanks

belizesailor · 12-03-2015, 13:20

Pilot Charts will give you long term averages so you can narrow of down to a month or two. Then wait there and monitor the forecast.

http://msi.nga.mil/NGAPortal/MSI.por...2&pubCode=0003