2013 hurricane season forecast

[boatman61]

Well... if that jet stream does not shift I feel sorry for folks crossing for the Azores this season... the islands have been hit especially hard this winter with quite a few deaths from rain induced landslides etc...
Last 3 years have seen a definite change in the weather patterns in my area... Atlantic Spain/Portugal/Madeira/Azores... for the worse..

[sailorboy1]

What does the Farmers Almanac and the ground hog say because I believe in experience when it comes to forecasting!

[boatman61]

Well this guys packed and moving to higher ground....

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Don L

What does the Farmers Almanac and the ground hog say because I believe in experience when it comes to forecasting!

i would look at the "duck" section,since you are "sitting" right in hurricane alley!

however as i said before this forecast has little relevance unless you have the ability to move out of a hurricane zone,based on it prediction

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by atoll

i would look at the "duck" section,since you are "sitting" right in hurricane alley!

Is that a special section of the almanac for my boat, s/v Rubber Ducky?

[Ed_Sail]

Originally Posted by mbianka

Well I've got my new 500 lb mooring ready to go:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: THAT WAS QUICK

As well as some new knowledge after surviving Hunrricane Sandy:
http://biankablog.blogspot.com/2012/...ane-sandy.html
Along with some new plans of action if another storm approaches.

Hi there.

Did you give any though to a helix. I'm on one and like it, although its time to do new chain.

E

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Don L

Is that a special section of the almanac for my boat, s/v Rubber Ducky?

don, anything with "RUBBER" in it you might be looking in the wrong type of magazine.........try "S&M Weekly"

here is what the guys over on ybwdot com think about your rubber duckky
http://www.ybw.com/forums/showthread...good-day-(NSFW)

[mbianka]

Originally Posted by Ed_Sail

Hi there.

Did you give any though to a helix. I'm on one and like it, although its time to do new chain.

E

I'd have no problem being on one. But, the town who controls the mooring field requires all the moorings be pulled over the winter and inspected before being put in in the spring. So far no helix moorings are allowed as far as I know.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by atoll

don, anything with "RUBBER" in it you might be looking in the wrong type of magazine.........try "S&M Weekly"

here is what the guys over on ybwdot com think about your rubber duckky
Yachting and Boating World Forums)

not a member so couldn't read it, anything about rubber duckies that need a password to read I feel should be passed on

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Don L

not a member so couldn't read it, anything about rubber duckies that need a password to read I feel should be passed on

worth joining,just for the banter,a bit more "out there" than cf!

ps we might make a "Europhile" of you yet......................

[Cheechako]

Originally Posted by RedHerring

Is there any reason to take this forecast seriously?

Not saying there isn't, but the history of long range forecasting is full of quack science and bona fide researchers mistaking accidental correlations in the historic sample for the real deal.

i doubt it... if it turns out correct it'll be coincidence based on previous predictions....

[Target9000]

I live in New Orleans Louisiana. Every year I read the hurricane forecast and every year it warns of a very active and dangerous season with the possibility for multiple hits and urges the utmost caution.

I believe this is because of legal reasons. If they warn everyone of a violent season but no hurricanes strike, then we laugh. If they say its going to be an easy season and someplace gets hammered, then there are lots and lots of lawsuits.

[Cheechako]

"Since 2000, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's prediction for the number of tropical storms and hurricanes has been too high in only one season: 2006.
A year-by-year breakdown follows below.
2000 Prediction: 11 Actual: 15
2001 Prediction: 9-12 Actual: 15
2002 Prediction: 9-13 Actual: 12
2003 Prediction: 12-15 Actual: 16
2004 Prediction: 12-15 Actual: 15
2005 Prediction: 12-15 Actual: 28
2006 Prediction: 13-16 Actual: 9
2007 Prediction: 13-17 Actual: 15
2008 Prediction: 12-16 Actual: 16
2009 Prediction: 9-14 Actual: 9
Source: NOAA"

My guess is any one of us could be as accurate by simply predicting 15............ :>) It's kind of like picking a random housewife (or husband) who picks stocks as well as a brokerage....

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Cheechako

Since 2000, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's prediction for the number of tropical storms and hurricanes has been too high in only one season: 2006.
A year-by-year breakdown follows below.
2000 Prediction: 11 Actual: 15
2001 Prediction: 9-12 Actual: 15
2002 Prediction: 9-13 Actual: 12
2003 Prediction: 12-15 Actual: 16
2004 Prediction: 12-15 Actual: 15
2005 Prediction: 12-15 Actual: 28
2006 Prediction: 13-16 Actual: 9
2007 Prediction: 13-17 Actual: 15
2008 Prediction: 12-16 Actual: 16
2009 Prediction: 9-14 Actual: 9
2010 Prediction: 14-23 Actual: ?
Source: NOAA

so what you are saying is if they say it is going to be a bad year,in reality it has a 9 out of 10 chance of being worse than predicted!

[Tellie]

Watching hurricane predictions is like listening to my buddies at the race track explain their sure fire system for winning. I put about the same stock in each.