Electric propulsion in the future

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Pete7

I was under the impression you had to maintain 5 knots through the canal. Nick shouldn't have much of a problem doing that with his waterline and still be below hull speed perhaps by a factor of 2.

Renting a diesel generator for the canal trip ought not to be a problem and would be cost effective.

Right Pete, he can make the speed no problem but it is the unbroken duration that is the risk, range if you will.

had a 60 nm trip to take which outstripped my 20 nm range under electric. I ran a gas suitcase generator and sailed when I could making the trip with 75% power remaining. The difference is that I could have stopped for the night somewhere if I needed to while I believe transiting these canals you just have to keep up.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by danstanford

The difference is that I could have stopped for the night somewhere if I needed to while I believe transiting these canals you just have to keep up.

I thought there was an overnight stop on a buoy on the Panama Canal.

Either way hire a generator and job done just motor through. Alternatively as you suggest, small petrol suitcase genny for dire emergencies like making tea

[mcarthur]

Diesel here (Australia) is about US$4.7 per US Gallon (at the boat pump). I'm with Pete7 in thinking that's not going to go down as the number of combustion-based case halves or more in the next 10-15 years, whatever OPEC does.

I'd not be surprised if by 2030 (about 8 years, OMG!) diesel for recreational boats was at US$10/US gallon.

If you look at www.globalpetrolprices.com, you'll notice that many of the boat-buying/owning people on this site are in the bottom (more expensive even now) part of the list - Europe, Singapore/Japan, South Africa, NZ, Canada - and pay above US$4 which even now costs 20%+ more than US.

[rob d]

For most of us it will simply boil down to how much battery capacity will I need to get from point A to point B using an electric motor that has enough power to get me there in a reasonable time frame. There is a trawler poking around Puget Sound now that was converted and seems to have enough power to get them around the sound safely at what most consider to be slow trawler speed.
GM has come out with an automotive bolt in conversion to replace a V8 Chevrolet and stuck one in an iconic 57 Chevy lately. That motor puts out about 350 Hp. I don't know the cost but that sure would be an interesting replacement for the 350 in my Bayliner and the 60 gallon gas tank that goes with it. Most of my cruising amounts to less than 50 miles one way from marina to marina on Puget sound most of the time and a full charge of the right battery might get me as much range as 60 gallons of gas do now.

[more]

Originally Posted by mcarthur

I'd not be surprised if by 2030 (about 8 years, OMG!) diesel for recreational boats was at US$10/US gallon.

Today in holland diesel is from US$8/US gallon and more depending on location

[goboatingnow]

Yep Dino juice is in its declining years. It’s zenith is passed

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by mcarthur

I'd not be surprised if by 2030 (about 8 years, OMG!) diesel for recreational boats was at US$10/US gallon.

Actually, if they are successful in converting a significant portion of cars to battery power, I would expect the price of fuel to fall. Simply supply and demand. Several OPEC countries will be forced to pump out of desperation as that really is the bulk of their economy and they would be thrown back into 3rd world status without it.

I seriously doubt in the next 8yrs we see marinas remove their fuel pumps as your average cruising boat has a lifespan of somewhere on the order of 30-50yrs. In 8yrs, the vast majority of boats will still need petroleum based fuel.

Small planing boats are even more dependent on ICE as it becomes a downward spiral trying to get decent range. An overloaded runabout needs even more power to stay on plane meaning a big battery bank can be counter productive.

[mcarthur]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Actually, if they are successful in converting a significant portion of cars to battery power, I would expect the price of fuel to fall. Simply supply and demand.

Gazing deep into the ball... I don't think so: many of the OPEC have started diversifying years ago as they knew what was coming. The "smart" ones are geared up for the change and won't be pumping extra. Another reason is that while pumping may continue, the whole infrastructure on refining and delivery will cost the end user as amounts that need to be created and shipped changes. So even if the amounts taken out of the ground stay near the same, there are is huge reduction in the number of people using. Those fewer users have to pay for the extraction, but they also have to pay for the refining and transport components.

It is supply and demand as you say - supply stays the same, demand goes massively down as recreational vehicle change is followed by commercial vehicle (land based ) change: cars, SUVs and small trucks account for 92% of non-aviation gasoline use in the USA (2020 figures). As you say, OPEC still wants money so they're not going to take a smaller cut - who do you think is going to pay? (that was rhetorical - it's the smaller base who are still using gasoline)

So if, as you suggest, OPEC still extracts the same amount, then it must be moved, refined, and sent somewhere for the increasingly small number of users. There would be a huge glut, prices plummet, and OPEC loses. Not going to happen! They simply extract less so there's less on the market. Now if there's less on the market, and there's fewer users of that, then economies of scale means those users will be paying more.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by mcarthur

Gazing deep into the ball... I don't think so: many of the OPEC have started diversifying years ago as they knew what was coming. The "smart" ones are geared up for the change and won't be pumping extra.

Doesn't take a crystal ball to see simple supply & demand in action.

As far as diversifying, have you spent any time there?

I've spent the last 7yrs working half time in the middle east and they all talk a good game at the high levels but on the ground none of it happens. The bulk of the citizens work in govt jobs or heavily subsidized private jobs.

For example, on the main project I'm working on, we were supposed to train 3 citizens in how to perform the work, so they can take over at some point...7yrs in and we've yet to even meet these trainees. Of course, we aren't allowed to talk about it officially. It's common knowledge this is standard operating procedure but it's bad form to openly talk about it.

So no, they aren't diversifying.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Doesn't take a crystal ball to see simple supply & demand in action...

I don’t think it’s quite that simple.
I’ve yet to see any problem, however complicated, which, when you looked at it the right way, didn’t become still more complicated.
I believe that, this, is one of those.
As Yogi Berra famously quipped: “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by GordMay

I don’t think it’s quite that simple.
I’ve yet to see any problem, however complicated, which, when you looked at it the right way, didn’t become still more complicated.
I believe that, this, is one of those.
As Yogi Berra famously quipped: “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Look what happened spring of 2020...demand plummeted and prices actually went negative.

Last winter, I was paying $1.75 per gallon. As demand came back we are up in the mid $3.XX per gallon range.

Sure there will be complications that add static to the price but cut demand by 30% and it's going to far outweigh the static.

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Can you name these ships or locations?



I'm aware of one ferry in Norway that has a 2 mile route with massive high speed chargers on both ends but I've yet to hear of a commercial cargo ship capable of hundreds of miles let alone a mandatory govt requirement for such.

Wartsilla the marine engine maker is working on ammonia engines.

Battery is not the only alternative to diesel or bunker oil.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Adelie

Wartsilla the marine engine maker is working on ammonia engines.

Battery is not the only alternative to diesel or bunker oil.

Any idea of the environmental impacts of ammonia? Are they combusting it?

I am anxious to learn more.

[Adelie]

Combusting it in an ICE.
Nitrogen oxides seems to be a significant problem.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...21.631397/full

Another option is synthetic hydrocarbons. You can make gas/petrol and diesel from thin air.

My guess is that butanol would have the beat bang for the buck.

Ammonia has the greatest waiting infrastructure and existing experience base.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Adelie

Combusting it in an ICE.
Nitrogen oxides seems to be a significant problem.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...21.631397/full

Another option is synthetic hydrocarbons. You can make gas/petrol and diesel from thin air.

My guess is that butanol would have the beat bang for the buck.

Ammonia has the greatest waiting infrastructure and existing experience base.

So much for meeting the zero emissions requirement. Might be better than diesel but the political game is "zero emissions".

Hydrogen might pass the political test of being zero emissions.

The problem with any ICE solution is not technological but political.

Of course, this is side tracked from the original implication of BEV powered commercial shipping.