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Old 19-05-2021, 00:39   #1
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When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

The pandemic will change a lot of things for many years to be and I think it might take many years to recover if it doesn't back to "normal".
Now many countries are in their second or third wave.
It is unlikely that borders will be open this year.


How long do you guys think that border closure for most countries will last?
2012, 2013, or even 2015?
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Old 19-05-2021, 00:53   #2
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

Australia: Mid 22



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Old 19-05-2021, 00:58   #3
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

Well, the "normal" time for pandemics used to be 5 yrs. If you take a serious look at the places from which first world medicine is absent, and the nations which are struggling with it, I don't really think normalcy will return--ever. But some form of border loosening will happen along with vaccination, especially when it exceeds about 75% of the populations of the country concerned.

If you can get reliable data about Fiji, it will be a small test case, but maybe not too far off what you can expect elsewhere. They desperately need a vaccine program, but so far, no one has stepped up to offer it.

If I had to vote, I'd say 2014, because I think eventually, the richer countries will help the poorer ones.

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Old 19-05-2021, 01:09   #4
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

Its already opening up and for fully vaccinated travellers I expect most countries will be welcoming later this year. Non vaccinated travellers will have very few options.
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Old 19-05-2021, 03:52   #5
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wckoek View Post
How long do you guys think that border closure for most countries will last?
2012, 2013, or even 2015?

Back to the future?
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Old 19-05-2021, 04:05   #6
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

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Originally Posted by JPA Cate View Post
Well, the "normal" time for pandemics used to be 5 yrs. If you take a serious look at the places from which first world medicine is absent, and the nations which are struggling with it, I don't really think normalcy will return--ever. But some form of border loosening will happen along with vaccination, especially when it exceeds about 75% of the populations of the country concerned.

If you can get reliable data about Fiji, it will be a small test case, but maybe not too far off what you can expect elsewhere. They desperately need a vaccine program, but so far, no one has stepped up to offer it.

If I had to vote, I'd say 2014, because I think eventually, the richer countries will help the poorer ones.

Ann
Fiji has a vaccination program which began early in March when they received their first batch of vaccines through the COVAX facility. Since India(100,000 doses) and NZ(500,000 doses) have donated a considerable number of vaccines and Fiji remain in the COVAX program. They are doing quite well compared to many other island nations.

The key to being able to travel more freely will be through vaccination. Some countries are already loosening up travel requirements for vaccinated persons. We assume you mean 2024? By then it should be a lot better but we may never see what was considered “normal” borders again for a very long time, if at all.
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Old 19-05-2021, 04:24   #7
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

You folks seem to have lost a decade .

For the Canada-USA border our Prime Minister is now floating the 75% vaccination mark, plus having all outbreaks under control. This very likely means we won't see our border open till late August at the earliest -- possibly even into the Fall.
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Old 19-05-2021, 04:25   #8
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

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How long do you guys think that border closure for most countries will last?
2012, 2013, or even 2015?
I doubt it will take negative 6-9yrs.

Countries are already opening up.
- Some are getting close to opening due to vaccinations. Europe is projecting later this summer.
- Others just can't handle the economic fallout. Thailand is looking to focus vaccinations near key tourist destinations, so they can open those back up.

For a while, you will likely need proof of vaccination (similar to yellow fever for some countries)...but that will likely fall away pretty quickly as the pandemic fades.
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Old 19-05-2021, 04:30   #9
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

"Normal" will not look quite the same, just like air travel adopted a different "normal" after 9/11. Short-term - normal will be travel among the first-vaccinated nations, and also the tourism destinations that depend upon them.

Longer term - depends on how quickly the rest of the world gets vaccinated, and on what form COVID finally takes after a few years of mutation and refinement.
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Old 19-05-2021, 04:49   #10
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

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Originally Posted by Wckoek View Post
The pandemic will change a lot of things for many years to be and I think it might take many years to recover if it doesn't back to "normal".
Now many countries are in their second or third wave.
It is unlikely that borders will be open this year.


How long do you guys think that border closure for most countries will last?
2012, 2013, or even 2015?
I think most will open this year for those that have been vaccinated.
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Old 19-05-2021, 05:35   #11
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

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I think most will open this year for those that have been vaccinated.
I think that's true for most rich countries. It seems to be true for us here in Bermuda. As of some time next month there will be no quarantine requirement for vaccinated travellers, though they will still have to show proof of a negative test.
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Old 19-05-2021, 05:47   #12
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

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Originally Posted by Topspin View Post
Australia: Mid 22



-Richard
It would be optimistic to think normalcy can be restored by 22, but I think it is a realistic date for most country to have travel borders open I think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alistair242 View Post
Fiji has a vaccination program which began early in March when they received their first batch of vaccines through the COVAX facility. Since India(100,000 doses) and NZ(500,000 doses) have donated a considerable number of vaccines and Fiji remain in the COVAX program. They are doing quite well compared to many other island nations.

The key to being able to travel more freely will be through vaccination. Some countries are already loosening up travel requirements for vaccinated persons. We assume you mean 2024? By then it should be a lot better but we may never see what was considered “normal” borders again for a very long time, if at all.
That would be 3 1/2 year - 4 year; quite a while until cruising is viable.
I guess we can only see the progress in a clearer picture in another year?
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I think most will open this year for those that have been vaccinated.
Probably for Euro areas?
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Old 19-05-2021, 06:15   #13
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

i'm having a bit of a not-beautiful-france day. am still in lock-down style living, cannot see friends, turning into a total hermit, cannot travel to view boats... kind of hanging on here, guys, while i await the jab... so here's what my darkened filter sees today:

think we are looking at a K recovery: rich countries will open up to one another

with the poorer countries plagued by the virus, there exists a great excuse to keep borders closed to poorer countries whose inhabitants are religiously traumatised by a swathe of crisis events, be it by storms, fires, coup d'etats, war, civil war, genocide, water scarcity, droughts, rising sea levels, famine... (yes, for my own good, i definitely need to stop reading the news)

so i imagine that, in this K recovery, the vaccine passport will become a thing.

and of course, with heightened levels of desperation, travel by sea may see an escalation of piracy...
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Old 19-05-2021, 06:47   #14
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

The borders will open, both national and state, when the political pain of closing them, or keeping them closed, exceeds the political gain of saving us from the "monster under the bed" called covid.
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Old 19-05-2021, 08:24   #15
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Re: When do you think the borders will be open? (let alone back to normal)

In the Caribbean region, which I have been watching closely, many countries are open or will open soon. The BVI has reduced to a one day quarantine with test. USVI is open. Montserrat just dropped quarantine from 14 to 10 days, which is still long. Bahamas is open. Antigua, appears to be open, without quarantine. Every location has to be researched, of course, and many places (Grenada, St Lucia, St Vincent) are still deciding when to re-open, but have tentative dates in July or August. Every place requires a recent negative PCR test before entry.

I was in the BVI three weeks ago, and they have somewhat the same "vaccine hesitancy" problem the US has, i.e., they got to about 40% vaccinated and then people stopped showing up at clinics in large numbers. The Premier said in a radio address while I was there, effectively, "Look, we've worked hard to provide access to vaccinations to everyone in the BVI. Some of you have chosen not to be vaccinated. We have to open up in June for the sake of the economy, so please come get vaccinated." A not so subtle push. At some point it will come to that, because all the economies are more or less dependent on tourism.
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