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Old 07-06-2020, 19:18   #1
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What Happened to Covid-19?

What has a happened to the Virus? Where has it gone? Following the normal progression of a Pandemic, we should be in deep doo doo by now, and we aren’t?
My home town Albany Ga was a severe hot spot, so much so that the CDC was studying the disease progression there, National Guard was mobilized with its medical teams etc.
As of today there is not one single case of Covid in the Hospital.
So where did it go? Is this it, is it pretty much burnt out, or will it come back late Fall?

Did it do what the first SARS and MERS seem to have done?
SARS and in particular MERS would have been bad, much much worse than COVID-19, MERS had a mortality rate of I believe 40%, thank God they have both seemingly simply disappeared, but why?
I don’t buy at all into the concept that “we” defeated them by taking public health measures
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Old 07-06-2020, 19:26   #2
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

I reckon the first question is - what is the current per capita testing rates in Albany Ga?
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Old 07-06-2020, 19:29   #3
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

No idea, what has testing got to do with it?
I’m sure if you have symptoms and get admitted your tested, but what I’m asking is why hasn’t it gotten so bad that there are dead all over the streets, so many dead they can’t burn them fast enough, reefer trucks filling up as temp morgues etc like so many predicted?
I’m not saying it’s over, but it certainly seems to be in remission doesn’t it?
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Old 07-06-2020, 19:41   #4
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

Not sure I'm see what you are in the data A6. The USA has a nice, gradual decline in new cases, but it's hardly a dramatic drop. And Georgia seems to show the same, although at first blush I'd say the decline is less than the national average.

Here is the data from the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracking site. The first graph is the US national data for new cases. The second is for Georgia.
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Old 07-06-2020, 19:44   #5
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

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No idea, what has testing got to do with it?
Iím sure if you have symptoms and get admitted your tested, but what Iím asking is why hasnít it gotten so bad that there are dead all over the streets, so many dead they canít burn them fast enough, reefer trucks filling up as temp morgues etc like so many predicted?
Iím not saying itís over, but it certainly seems to be in remission doesnít it?
Social distancing and lockdown stopped the spread

The same way that social distancing stopped the spread of the Spanish flu

Corona is still out there ..,,if you donít believe me abandon your corona manners and see how long you last
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Old 07-06-2020, 19:45   #6
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

Daily deaths from Covid-19 in Georgia have dropped from 29 to 25.

I'm not sure that's comforting if you are one of the 25.

And all the people over age 60 that I know are mostly ignoring the "re-opening" and being very careful - wearing masks, etc. I don't plan to eat indoors in a restaurant until the vaccine is available - much less go to a movie or church. I'd feel like an idiot to die of this thing now.

"As of 3 p.m., there have been 2,147 deaths in Georgia, with the state's earliest reported death on March 5. Over the last 14 days (5/23-6/5), the average daily increase in newly reported deaths was 25.14 deaths each day. Over the previous 14-day period (5/9-5/22), the average daily increase in newly reported deaths was 29.07"

https://www.11alive.com/article/news...6-6a9cb517081b
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Old 07-06-2020, 19:48   #7
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

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Daily deaths from Covid-19 in Georgia have dropped from 29 to 25.

I'm not sure that's comforting if you are one of the 25.

And all the people over age 60 that I know are mostly ignoring the "re-opening" and being very careful. I don't plan to eat indoors in a restaurant until the vaccine is available - much less go to a movie or church. I'd feel like an idiot to die of this thing just because I got sloppy.

"As of 3 p.m., there have been 2,147 deaths in Georgia, with the state's earliest reported death on March 5. Over the last 14 days (5/23-6/5), the average daily increase in newly reported deaths was 25.14 deaths each day. Over the previous 14-day period (5/9-5/22), the average daily increase in newly reported deaths was 29.07"

https://www.11alive.com/article/news...6-6a9cb517081b
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Old 07-06-2020, 20:03   #8
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

Slug - I'm not sure "wise" but I've been cruising on sailboats for 40 years and like most sailors take safety seriously. I am pretty proud that I haven't killed myself yet - despite some pretty hairy situations. Or worse - much worse - killed someone else.

My true nightmare is that I might catch Covid and pass it on to my wife or a friend - killing them. That's right up there with losing someone overboard because I didn't make sure they wore a harness on deck after dark.

I've actually been impressed at how most of the sailors in my harbor/marina are wearing masks on the docks and gangways - even the young ones who don't really have anything to fear from the disease themselves but are doing it to protect me and the other old farts around here.

It's appreciated.
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Old 07-06-2020, 20:14   #9
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

I don’t know about where you guys are at, but social distancing in Fl ever since I came back is a joke, people are still shopping and the day we returned the same sand bars on either side of the entrance to Lake Worth were packed with people hanging around drinking, like always, and packed together fishing on the jetties, as always. The bars and eating establishments in town were closed, but that’s about it. OK hairdressers too, but Walmart, Home Depot etc we’re all packed, parking lots full.

Social distancing, staying at home etc did not stop the Spanish flu and it won’t stop any Pandemic, if done correctly it will slow the progression of the disease, but it’s not going to wipe it out, anymore than handing out free prophylactics will eradicate STD’s.

From what I observed things were never really locked down, just public gatherings was all.
The “reopening” and relaxing of the rules should flame the spread of the disease like throwing gas on a fire, if they are the reason it hasn’t progressed like it was originally predicted.
I would have expected a huge increase in infections and haven’t heard of any yet.

I know it’s still out there, just as pretty much all of the major pandemics of the past are still out there, I was vaccinated for yellow fever, bubonic plague, diphtheria and several other diseases, because they are still out there, but for some reason they don’t become pandemics again, why? I don’t buy herd immunity they were too long ago for that.
Just from a layman’s perspective Covid is winding down, borders are being opened etc.
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Old 07-06-2020, 20:23   #10
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

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No idea, what has testing got to do with it?
Iím sure if you have symptoms and get admitted your tested, but what Iím asking is why hasnít it gotten so bad that there are dead all over the streets, so many dead they canít burn them fast enough, reefer trucks filling up as temp morgues etc like so many predicted?
Iím not saying itís over, but it certainly seems to be in remission doesnít it?
I think large scale (and random) testing is the key to knowing how many people have CV19 at any one time.

If testing is restricted to those who are admitted to a medical facility one does not know anything about all of those who aren't sick enough to seek / need medical attention.

As to the question of why aren't you in deep doo doo now, what has changed since the first indication of a severe hot spot?

Maybe those actions (whatever they were) made a difference or maybe the virus is acting in an unknown way (mutating itself out of existence)? Check back next year for the answer
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Old 07-06-2020, 20:24   #11
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

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Not sure I'm see what you are in the data A6. The USA has a nice, gradual decline in new cases, but it's hardly a dramatic drop. And Georgia seems to show the same, although at first blush I'd say the decline is less than the national average.

Here is the data from the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracking site. The first graph is the US national data for new cases. The second is for Georgia.
Point is itís in a decline, where the graph should have been very steeply increasing, and thankfully itís not.
If social distancing and closing bars etc stopped it, then it should come back strong, very, very strong.
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Old 07-06-2020, 20:26   #12
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

Iíve been in Puerto Rico for the entire corona outbreak

I have never seen a person outside who is not wearing a mask and gloves

The lockdown is strict

The corona outbreak has stabilized

Fingers crossed for the future
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Old 07-06-2020, 20:31   #13
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

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As to the question of why aren't you in deep doo doo now, what has changed since the first indication of a severe hot spot?

Maybe those actions (whatever they were) made a difference or maybe the virus is acting in an unknown way (mutating itself out of existence)? Check back next year for the answer

Only real change is weather, because in Albany they are still packing those mega churches several times a week. The initial outbreak was two different funerals, one reason the CDC was studying the area I believe, because they knew who patient Zero was.

I have thought from the beginning it was just going to have to run itís course, I didnít for a minute expect a vaccine or an anti viral medicine to be found to cure it.
All the staying at home, Social distancing etc should slow progression, but not stop it.
The masks are I believe pretty much completely ineffective, except they keep your mind on the virus and may keep your fingers out of your mouth, but they primarily work to keep you thinking about what you touch, wash your hands etc.
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Old 07-06-2020, 20:31   #14
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

in the uk 50% of frontline health care workers tested positive for the virus.
keeping a low profile myself as a diabetic.
catamaran is fully stocked if there are local lockdowns,which seems to be the governments plan for the future if further hotspots appear.

interesting video by 2 uk doctors on the current situation and prospects for the future in the uk

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Old 07-06-2020, 20:32   #15
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Re: What Happened to Covid-19?

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Point is itís in a decline, where the graph should have been very steeply increasing, and thankfully itís not.
If social distancing and closing bars etc stopped it, then it should come back strong, very, very strong.
It takes two or three weeks before people start dropping dead
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