US / Canada border restrictions predictions...

[MBinSTPete]

Yesterday the US had almost 45,000 cases. Canada with 1/10th the US population had 336. There is no appetite to open the border until the US gets its numbers down to comparable levels. That's a long way to go- maybe mid 2021.

[Mike OReilly]

Unless someone here is an actual federal government policy wonk all we can do is guess and speculate. There appears to be little appetite to open the border from the Canadian side right now. And since the current Liberal government is looking for anything to bolster their popularity, there's little reason to expect any change from this side.

The only way it will change is if the USA gets its collective act together to get control of the pandemic, OR the economic pain on this side of the border increases to unsustainable levels. For make no mistake, Canada is paying a steep price. This is why some up here get so irate when they read about the few "Alaskan loopholers."

[Montanan]

There is a global pandemic, when it gets resolved then non-essential travel should be allowed to be permitted, until then travel should be for truly essential purposes, e.g. once a week to the grocery store or to the pharmacy. Work from home, stay at home. This isn't rocket science. In the meantime, the Canadian / US border remains open to essential travel and such provides for ample means for cross border transmission of the disease, no need to add increased exposures for non-essential traveling, be that travel across the border or across a town, or across the street.

Hope for a safe and reasonably effective vaccine to aid in reducing community spread, and for incremental enhancements in therapeutics and treatment protocols to improve patient outcomes. So perhaps the second half of 2021, or early 2022 is a reasonable, albeit optimistic prediction.

Just because things have reopened, it does not mean it is safe to be out and about, and what with the large number of asymptomatic, contagious persons realize that you could be the carrier [Typhoid Mary or Covid Chuck] and endangering others with your presence and proximity. What reopening means is that they have room for you in the ICU.

[rosatte]

Borders are open for boaters coming from us and by flying in ,see it every day here so just cause you can’t drive threw dosent mean borders closed ,,, us boats all up threw gulf islands Bc

[AiniA]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

I don't think you are taking into account the nature of the American's state/federal relationship. Look at Canada...we can't get policy agreement across our fairly small (in province count) and unified country and still have the eastern half locked down for the foreseeable future.

I wouldn't bet the Americans with their stronger republican (as in republic, not the party) ethos will be able to get the kind of policy agreements needed to make everyone along the entire 5500 miles comfortable enough to open it up—and I don't see piecemeal working at all given the Alaska loophole fiascos.

My prediction: it will stay closed until something breaks: vaccine, herd immunity, aluminum shortage, a f-35 deal... what have you.

Not sure what is happening in Quebec but all of Ontario is at Stage 3 reopening with restaurants and stores open and schools to open in a couple of weeks. Touch wood, but the reopening has not caused a surge in cases. Number of cases in Ontario has been about 100 +/- a day so similar to BC and Alberta but with a much larger population.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by rosatte

Borders are open for boaters coming from us and by flying in ,see it every day here so just cause you can’t drive threw dosent mean borders closed ,,, us boats all up threw gulf islands Bc

From the official CBSA statement on boating:
https://www.canada.ca/en/border-serv...y-reasons.html

With the onset of warmer weather, boat and pleasure craft owners may be inclined to take their boats across the border on inland or coastal waterways, or to come to their cottages in Canada. These activities are considered discretionary (non-essential) travel according to temporary travel restrictions currently in place, and are, therefore, prohibited. Boaters are still permitted to navigate across international waters if needed, but are not allowed to enter Canadian territorial or boundary waters for discretionary, leisure (non-essential) reasons, including entry for touring, sightseeing and pleasure fishing.

So either all those US boats are navigating across our waters out of some necessity, or they are in violation of the law.

[ArmyDaveNY]

This virus is not going away due to any human actions unfortunately. Once it escaped from the lab or wherever in Wuhan, there was no putting the genie back into the bottle. It is also very possible that due to mutations, there will be a different strain each season, and IF there is a vaccine, the scientists will have to guess which strain it will be, much like the flu. The odds are that they will get it wrong more then they guess correctly. It is possible that it will go away naturally, like another famous coronavirus, SARS.

Mike had two excellent points about the reopening. First, politicians and apparatchiks will use this as much as possible to gain any advantage. It seems to be happening in Canada, and is definitely happening in the U.S. There are also significant financial incentives here in the U.S. as the federal government is paying around $30,000 U.S. for every Wuhan virus death, so unsurprisingly there are many thousands of deaths that are listed as a Wuhan virus death regardless of the actual cause.

Second, until the pain becomes unbearable and the citizenry reacts, things will not change. Concurrent with this, if countries like Sweden, the Netherlands, and others who didn't fully shut down are shown to be over it, opinion in the policy circles may change. Certainly, those who didn't shut down are dong much better economically. There is some evidence that we are killing more with the shutdown that we are saving.

Regardless, I don't see the borders opening much before the end of the year, and I wouldn't be surprised if it took a good bit longer. This however may not be an all or nothing game. We are already seeing some travel allowed if the travelers can demonstrate a satisfactory quarantine. As better, faster, and more affordable tests become available, as people realize it has a low mortality rate, and as people realize there are effective treatments with very good results and use them, there may be a gradual lessening of the draconian restrictions.

[roland stockham]

The way things are looking boarder opening will be the least of the worries in the US this winter. If you a basis for guessing what is coming look up the history of the Spanish flue which was the first COVID pandemic. COVID 19 at present appears to have around 3 times the case fatality rate even with modern hospital resources able to cope. It is possible there will be some limited opening by summer 2021if things go exceptionally well but realistically pack supplies on your boat and identify a remote destination where you can isolate and hunker down this winter if needed. Better to be prepared than caught out.

[ebs001]

Originally Posted by Ardbeg

I suspect it will stay closed as long as the Liberals think it would hurt them at the polls. If Trudeau removed for some reason, that might speed up reopening. There would be an election. Majority would mean they could re open.

Canadians from every political affiliation do not want the border opened. A pole in mid July said 81% are against re-opening. No party is going to open the border.

Canadians have done a pretty good job of gaining some control of covid 19 by spending a lot and sacrificing a lot. The Americans have done the worst job of any industrialized country, by far, containing the virus . Many Canadians will be plenty pissed if the Americans screw that up.

As it stands now the border will not be open until a vaccine is found and the vast majority of people are vaccinated and if someone wants to come to Canada they will have to be vaccinated.

[Elie]

Since my sailboat is stored in Upstate New York, I have not been there this year. I've checked with officials on both side of our borders and here are the strange answers:
By plane no problem : You can fly in the USA any time . By car, a special request has to be made to Canadian authorities and US border control. The permission to cross the border will be granted if you have a good reason to go across, like a summer house to care, a boat or even some social event(Funerals or mariage). Upon retunr, however, Canadians will impose a mandatory et serious quarantine, at home, and will be checked by the federal autorities( I was told that the federal police(RCMP) would check the respect of this strick quarantine, and any infraction would be severely punished.
I believe that Canada's restrictions are more important, but considering the infection rate in the US(World record of new cases and death!), and the recent seriously degraded state of relations between our countries's head of states, it is understable. I don't believe that anything wil change in 2020 at least, and even further down unless a miraculous vaccine is finaly developped.

[Mike OReilly]

There doesn't appear to be any real limitations for Canadians flying to the USA, but the opposite does not appear to be true. At least on paper Canada is restricting air travelers to "essential."

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration...ons.html#enter

[joelhemington]

Sounds like it's going to be a bad time to own a restaurant in Whistler Village this year (or anything else). We yanks will just go to Tahoe where we can get bacon and eggs for breakfast - instead of those muffins so popular in Hoser Land.

[brmoney]

I am with ArmdaveNY even with a vaccine Covid19 is not going anywhere. From the reports of mutations any Covid shot will be less effective than the flu shot. I never seen anyone officially say that there will be a cure, only to flatten the curve. My prediction is that as US rates go down with better immunity, people will get a false sense of security and open borders to countries that have not spread the herd immunity and their cases will skyrocket. Of course blaming the other country. If you look at spread grafts from doing nothing to complete lock down. The curve is the same big spike then tapers off as immunity catches up. With more deaths than moderate containment and letting nature fight it.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by ebs001

Canadians from every political affiliation do not want the border opened. A pole in mid July said 81% are against re-opening. No party is going to open the border.

Canadians have done a pretty good job of gaining some control of covid 19 by spending a lot and sacrificing a lot. The Americans have done the worst job of any industrialized country, by far, containing the virus . Many Canadians will be plenty pissed if the Americans screw that up.

As it stands now the border will not be open until a vaccine is found and the vast majority of people are vaccinated and if someone wants to come to Canada they will have to be vaccinated.

I agree with your first two paragraphs, but the last paragraph raises a lot of questions.

Will the virus go away by itself, such as a previous Coronavirus did (SARS)?

Will there be a vaccine?
Will the vaccine be effective?
Will the vaccine eliminate the virus?
Will the virus mutate each year?
If the vaccine mutates, will the scientists be able to guess which variant will be the one to make the vaccine?
Will there be any side effects to the vaccine?

Additionally, I don't think it is that simple. For example, what about those border towns that are essentially highly integrated? For example, there is a ton that is literally split by the border, to the extent that the border runs right through the town library. I think it might be Stanstead on the border of Quebec and Vermont. Regardless, there are a number of communities that are fairly tightly integrated.

I don't think a possible vaccine is the only way the borders open.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by brmoney

>>>>>>>>>>>>
The curve is the same big spike then tapers off as immunity catches up. With more deaths than moderate containment and letting nature fight it.

It would help if you could explain this.


What immunity has caught up?


The purpose of the lockdowns was to reduce person-to-person contact and attempt to reduce infectious people from infecting others.


What's changed?


There is no vaccine. There is nothing different about the virus since early this year.


The entire lockdown concept was to reduce contact to slow the spread.


NY paid a price, but was successful. Did South Dakota, Georgia, Texas & Florida listen? Nah...



Those countries and, in the US, states who have refused to listen to science and facts are paying the price.