The Reality of Living in Australia and Covid

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

Minor change in topic for those on the E Coast from about Mackay, QLD, to Coffs Harbour, NSW:

* BoM should give us the drum on Seth (apparently the third son Adam begot on Eve and, if you're a dinkum believer in wot is writ in the Old Testament, the male ancestor of all humans) by 1730 Eastern Standard Time/0730 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin 1 (QLD)

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

Hmm ... I thought I had discussed exactly that up-thread at:

* https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3546380

and

* https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...54652-151.html

plus

* suggesting those changes went against opinion of independent experts given at: https://www.theguardian.com/australi...covid-response

Ohhh My Bad - Not been online that much recently.

[Factor]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

You missed the word towards and omitted the important bit
'We do not accept road deaths - governments continue to work on driving the figures further down towards zero.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tralia_by_year

We will probably never get there, just as we will never totally eliminate deaths from common influenza or covid or a raft of other ailments.
Doesn't mean you just accept it.'

You are making my argument for me.

With a huge road toll, governments took steps to bring down to acceptable level, they took informed balanced decisions. I could bring the road toll to zero tomorrow, just put a man with a red flag in front of every car. The cost to the social and economic fabric of society would be catastrophic.

Equally with covid governments should not be trying to have no cases or even no deaths, they should be trying to manage as far as possible and reasonable, i.e. masks vaccines etc.

Oh and by the way I do remember large scale road deaths, I remember when QLD was trying for Campaign 550, trying to get the death toll down to 550. Its about 271 this year in qld, interestingly that is higher than many previous years. Three things got it down, Engineering e.g. less level crossings, less roadside furniture less single lane major highways, better vehicle protection, Enforcement e.g. RBT etc, and Education, sadly teaching people to drive has never been at the top of any governments agenda.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Factor

You are making my argument for me.



With a huge road toll, governments took steps to bring down to acceptable level, they took informed balanced decisions. I could bring the road toll to zero tomorrow, just put a man with a red flag in front of every car. The cost to the social and economic fabric of society would be catastrophic.



Equally with covid governments should not be trying to have no cases or even no deaths, they should be trying to manage as far as possible and reasonable, i.e. masks vaccines etc.



Oh and by the way I do remember large scale road deaths, I remember when QLD was trying for Campaign 550, trying to get the death toll down to 550. Its about 271 this year in qld, interestingly that is higher than many previous years. Three things got it down, Engineering e.g. less level crossings, less roadside furniture less single lane major highways, better vehicle protection, Enforcement e.g. RBT etc, and Education, sadly teaching people to drive has never been at the top of any governments agenda.

Virtually no government has tried for zero Covid even NZ chucked that policy.

Most governments and public health experts have merely being trying to dampen things at best.

Nobody has no deaths as a policy merely preventing as many as possible.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Virtually no government has tried for zero Covid even NZ chucked that policy.

Most governments and public health experts have merely being trying to dampen things at best.

Nobody has no deaths as a policy merely preventing as many as possible.

Zero Covid worked in a few countries - until it didn't -

American Samoa had only 4 cases and no community transmission. Same same a few other Island states.

The Australian states - less the plague pair - have done pretty well so far. Only 49 deaths since the start (added bit - in a population of about 11 million). Achieved in the main by simply closing borders.

All the stats you could ever wish for and a few more besides
https://www.health.gov.au/health-ale...and-statistics

[El Pinguino]

Time for a change in thinking?
'Some U.S. infectious disease experts and public health officials are questioning whether to continue using the number of coronavirus cases as a metric for determining which mitigation efforts are appropriate, as data suggests Omicron is less severe but much more contagious than previous variants.
Those experts argue that the U.S. has reached a stage in the pandemic where reports of dramatic surges in case counts prompt unnecessary worries and that government officials and the public should instead review death and hospitalization data when considering precautions.'
https://cuencahighlife.com/some-heal...pitalizations/

Meanwhile in Ecuador - scroll down a bit
'Hospitals report high Covid recovery rate, few deaths
Despite concerns about the Omicron variant, hospitals are reporting the highest recovery rate for Covid-19 patients since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Although the number of new cases has increased in recent days, few require hospitalization and deaths from the virus remain low.
According to numbers released by the Ministry of Health, there were 2,232 new cases recorded on December 31 but only nine deaths. This compares to 640 deaths on May 10, 2020 and 398 on October 8, 2020.
In a statement, the Ministry says it expects more hospitalizations as Omicron cases increase but does not expect to see hospitals and clinics overwhelmed. “Looking at the Omicron experience of South Africa and other countries we expect a rate of hospitalizations and death will be less than 15 percent of previous variants.”
https://cuencahighlife.com/anti-gove...rism-recovery/

And in Argentina
'Compared to other waves, the number of infected people soars but the number of hospitalizations in intensive care and the number of deaths from the virus remain stable, thanks to 83% of the population being vaccinated, according to Vizzotti.'
https://en.mercopress.com/2021/12/31...lly-vaccinated


We seem to be seeing the same thing here in Victoria with daily Covid deaths the lowest in yonks - bouncing around five per day since the end of the year.

Rather than terrifying people with case numbers maybe it's time to start concentrating on hospitalisations - and the percentage of those dying and being hospitalised who are unvaccinated.

[goboatingnow]

Yes indeed time to stop broadcasting case numbers. It’s like counting colds.

But broadcaster love “ drama”

[Wotname]

Just getting back to case numbers for a moment - I find it interesting to note the speed of the spread.

Population of Tasmania - about 550,000.

December 14 2021 - 0 Covid cases, borders have been open to WA/SA/NT/QLD and with significant restrictions to VIC/NSW for about a year.

December 15 2021 - Borders opened to all mainland states with some restrictions requiring testing prior to travel i.e. can't travel if positive etc.

January 4 2021 - 2244 active Covid cases.

So in about 3 weeks, we go from 0 in 550,00 to 1 in every 245 people having an active Covid case.

Also significant is the positive rate in the testing. Last 24 hours 702 cases from 2088 tests giving a strike rate of 34% which suggests there is a massive under testing occurring.


Food for thought - when will it reach 1 in 1?

FWIW - 91.9% double vaxxed (aged 12 and over)

https://www.coronavirus.tas.gov.au/f...ian-statistics

[tanngrisnir]

yeah, spreading like wildfire here in VIC. Daughter and her friends isolating and all tested +ve on rapid test, unable to get PCR tests, so just isolating together and watching out for worsening symptoms.

A lot of hysteria about RAT availability. Media not helping and general population anxiety is going through the roof.

Seems our leaderless government has again changed gears without really explaining the implications of the change.

From my perspective the government has given up now. They are merely going through the motions. With PCR testing now not available or recommended it really comes down to the individual. If you feel sick, stay at home. if you don't then reduce your interactions and be as careful as you can, just like we all did in Lockdown 1.

I don't even see the point of testing yourself with RAT, your going to do the same thing regardless of the result.

guess omicron is just going to burn through the population, so I'll see you on the other side ( or not).

[tanngrisnir]

Originally Posted by Lucky Luke 1

Tasmania reopening has been a huge political mistake as i predicted.
Know one is happy with the new normal. Older people are scared. My late 70's year old active mum is no longer walking as much as she did nor socializing and shopping as she was only a few weeks ago. Tasmanians are no longer traveling within the state. Sole traders and casual employees are no longer checking in.

Was a bad move from the Premier to not put the islanders above the mainland pressure.

So sorry that you are now going through the sh*t we have had to put up with in the plague states. I saw my father deteriorate before my eyes due to the reduced social interaction, even not being able to go and do the weekly shopping made his world smaller. He passed away last month, not due to covid but the 18 months of isolation and reduced stimulation because of cessation of community activities contributed to bringing his passing forward by a couple of years.

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by tanngrisnir

So sorry that you are now going through the sh*t we have had to put up with in the plague states. I saw my father deteriorate before my eyes due to the reduced social interaction, even not being able to go and do the weekly shopping made his world smaller. He passed away last month, not due to covid but the 18 months of isolation and reduced stimulation because of cessation of community activities contributed to bringing his passing forward by a couple of years.

It's possible.

One of the things I am finding about old age is the problem of keeping life interesting enough for you to want to live it.

[HankOnthewater]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Just getting back to case numbers for a moment - I find it interesting to note the speed of the spread.

Population of Tasmania - about 550,000.

December 14 2021 - 0 Covid cases, borders have been open to WA/SA/NT/QLD and with significant restrictions to VIC/NSW for about a year.

December 15 2021 - Borders opened to all mainland states with some restrictions requiring testing prior to travel i.e. can't travel if positive etc.

January 4 2021 - 2244 active Covid cases.

So in about 3 weeks, we go from 0 in 550,00 to 1 in every 245 people having an active Covid case.

Also significant is the positive rate in the testing. Last 24 hours 702 cases from 2088 tests giving a strike rate of 34% which suggests there is a massive under testing occurring.


Food for thought - when will it reach 1 in 1?

FWIW - 91.9% double vaxxed (aged 12 and over)

https://www.coronavirus.tas.gov.au/f...ian-statistics

You are right, there is under-testing in all states (except WA). The % of positive cases that had a PCR test (today's figures) was for NSW 28%, Victoria 23% and Qld (yesterday) 18%.
Therefore the actual cases in those states would be in my opinion at least double than the reported figures.
In some ways that is good news, as the percentage of the active cases that have been admitted to a hospital is even less.

If we were to reduce testing only to those that are very likely to have covid ie need to be admitted to hospital, then yes, we would achieve a ratio close to 1:1 of tests and being positive. Or do you mean that every citizen will be positive at the same time? No, that won't happen, but we will be all exposed to covid, and most of us will be infected at some time. Even a nurse who works on a covid ward, is able to keep safe from his/her patients, but at home, a 4 year old child gets infected by who knows who, and that nurse gets infected that way. That nurse will be away from her work for at least 7 days.

And we may well head that way, that the only testing is done for those interacting with the healthcare system, and maybe those who are in close contact with others, ie airline staff, police, public transport workers

Note that testing in itself does not prevent infection, it gives a picture of one point in time. The only good of testing is that gives you an indication to stay at home. Even the notion of self-isolation is often not possible anymore, unless one lives on one's own.

Here is a very good overview of the Oz covid situation, published by ABC this morning
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...ralia/12060704

There will be 'interesting times' ahead, and times with a lot of changes, and many of these will be about testing.

And yes, the health and hospital systems are under enormous pressure, and really cannot cope anymore. This will get worse over the next 4-8 weeks.

And I am moving to Melbourne in 2 week's time, to work. I must be crazy. Oh, I knew that already, I own a boat. Trying to keep this thread sailing related

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by HankOnthewater

Note that testing in itself does not prevent infection, it gives a picture of one point in time. The only good of testing is that gives you an indication to stay at home. Even the notion of self-isolation is often not possible anymore, unless one lives on one's own.

Methinks you miss many of the 'goods' or benefits of testing. At a minimum:

* if you (being not a household member of mine) were joining me for a sail (perhaps around the buoys on Wednesday afternoon or for a sail across Moreton Bay to make anchor at Lucinda Bay for recreational fishing, a meal or two, a sleep, and a sortie ashore before making the return trip), then each of us gains confidence if we have used Rapid Test Kits - Antigen;

* tests reported to the state govt and federal govt have other benefits, not dissimilar to the data collected by ABS in their regular census and sample census surveys. That includes: planning of allocation of govt and private medical and hospital resources; signals to the marketplace for innovation, opportunities, and demand; and signals to health insurers, investment, and life insurance actuaries. Plus of course much more.

* whether the tests are funded by the generous Taxpayers of Aus or come from your and my pockets, supply of the tests will be either part of the magic Govt Demand or Private Demand figures in macroeconomy, i.e. economic activity as measured by GDP. Makes the wheel go around.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

... Rather than terrifying people with case numbers maybe it's time to start concentrating on hospitalisations - and the percentage of those dying and being hospitalised who are unvaccinated.

Hospitalizations is the metric, on which Canada's largest province, Ontario, is concentrating.

Our Conservative government has closed schools, banned indoor dining, imposed strict limits on gatherings, etc.; all contrary to their natural inclination

[GordMay]

Novak Djokovic was denied entry, and had his visa canceled, because he failed to meet the Australian requirements, for an exemption to COVID-19 vaccination rules.

2022 will be the first year he won't play in the Australian Open grand slam tournament, since 2005 [he’s won 9 Oz titles, and 20-time grand slam winner].

Among the acceptable reasons for an exemption, are acute major medical conditions, serious adverse reaction to a previous dose of COVID-19 vaccine, or evidence of a COVID-19 infection, within the previous six months.