The Reality of Living in Australia and Covid

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by GILow

Regarding the whole difference in infection rates between Melbourne and Sydney, I feel much of it may be as simple as more people in Sydney are avoiding getting tested to reduce their chance of being found positive and thus being prevented from working.

I’m an Occam’s razor kinda guy.

They appear to still be getting tested. https://www.covid19data.com.au/nsw-lgas-testing You are told to get tested if you have symptoms - not just for the fun of getting tested .
If people were avoiding getting tested as you suggest more people would be ending up in hospital and more people would be ending up dead. They aren't.

If you look at that link you will note that the LGA's with the most ongoing tests are those in the WSW which were hardest hit. Also be aware that Sydney and NSW LGAs are much smaller than Melbourne LGAs.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Where do you get that? I posted the simple and correct fact -- not any kind of hearsay -- that the state may indeed seize houses. In fact they have explicitly stated that they may. I quoted the state's own official statements, not the Murdoch or any other press! I don't read the Daily Mail (which I agree is utter trash, but that doesn't mean that everything written in it is incorrect). The emotional reactions in this thread to the Daily Wail article implied that the whole thing is outrageous rubbish. Yes, the headline was wrong, and it was right to point that out, but that seizure of houses is explicitly on the agenda is factually correct and NOT indeed fake news, so I stand by what I wrote.

Is it not possible to have a rational and unemotional conversation on here?

Yes, you can have a rational conversation here if you refrain from repeating alarmist nonsense from Murdoch's rags. What you posted was akin to to some kid getting on the school bus and telling his mates something that he heard behind the shelter sheds the week before last - that his mates knew all about months ago.
You still don't seem to understand how Australia works. States have different laws, I have no idea what the differences between Victorian and Queensland laws are - maybe they have just added seizure of houses to the list of what they can do to you if you owe the state money.. In Victoria that has been a possibility since Noah was a deck boy.
Here our sheriffs don't run the local police department - in fact we don't have local police departments.
This is what our sheriffs do https://www.justice.vic.gov.au/justi...fs-in-victoria
https://www.justice.vic.gov.au/justi...rcement-powers

And they do sell real estate https://www.justice.vic.gov.au/sheriffrealestate

When you see the sheriff's van pull up outside the local pie shop you know they will be coming out with the pie warmer and everything else that isn't nailed down.

Do you really think a homeowner in Brisbane who could afford to be overseas, who could afford $30,000 in airfares and another $6,000 in quarantine fees is really going to refuse to pay up and lose his house?

What you posted was old news presented in an alarming fashion. What is news is that it is no longer illegal for a man to dress as a woman in Hobart after dark. What? That law was repealed in 1975?? Well I only just heard about it yesterday.

[El Pinguino]

This is what you need to do to get your house(S) seized and sold in NSW.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/m...24-p59buw.html

[ozsailer]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This is way out of line. We already had a polite discussion about this upthread, and now you come up with false accusations of trolling, and misinformation.

There is nothing "hysterical" about anything I posted, nor is there any misinformation. I only said that it is true, after all, that the state has actually announced that it MAY put charges on houses for unpaid pandemic violation fines. This is a fact. I didn't comment on whether there is anything unusual or outrageous about this, and of course it is a completely ordinary feature of any legal system that whatever assets you have are at risk if you don't pay your legal debts. I suppose it might be news to some people that relatively trivial violations can result in fines which could eventually lead to losing your house; possibly it's useful to remind people of that. In the U.S., this can happen as the result of quite trivial and even accidental mistakes with taxes, for example.

What was incorrect in this thread was some headline in one of your newspapers that houses had actually been seized. This is apparently not correct -- so far. But I never said anything that about, nor did I post any link to any such headlines. That was someone else. Several posters cleared that up above.

Now, could you calm down a little?

Nope I wont calm down, the very fact that you post this ongoing rubbish needs to be identified for those people who wish to know facts, not crap.


Oz

[Alan Mighty]

Yesterday (Wednesday 24 November 2021), the Aus Bureau of Statistics released its latest monthly update of provisional mortality stats, dealing with deaths in Aus up to July/August 2021.

The next update is scheduled for 22 December.

You can always browse the latest ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics, complete with text and charts, at:

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/he...latest-release

The November update captures the surge in Covid-19 infection in the plague states (VIC and NSW), but it of course focuses on the trends in the major causes of death of Australians including Aussie cruisers.

The big takeaway points are public health measures introduced to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 have

* depressed deaths from pneumonia and lower respiratory tract diseases;

* contributed to deaths from ischaemic heart disease, cerebro-vascular disease, cancer, and all respiratory tract diseases being at or just below trend; but

* likely contributed to deaths from dementia and cancer being at or above trend and deaths from diabetes are within the usual range.

[GILow]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

They appear to still be getting tested. https://www.covid19data.com.au/nsw-lgas-testing You are told to get tested if you have symptoms - not just for the fun of getting tested .

If people were avoiding getting tested as you suggest more people would be ending up in hospital and more people would be ending up dead. They aren't.



If you look at that link you will note that the LGA's with the most ongoing tests are those in the WSW which were hardest hit. Also be aware that Sydney and NSW LGAs are much smaller than Melbourne LGAs.

Yes, funny you should mention the deaths…

Turns out the death rate in NSW is way, way higher. And I mean MASSIVELY higher. Can’t believe this isn’t being picked up somewhere.

One of my problems with being a mathematician is that I don’t trust myself with numbers, but I just fed the last month of data from Covid live into excel, one column for new cases, one for deaths.

I get 27864 new cases in Victoria with 184 deaths, translating to a mortality rate of 0.0066035, in NSW I get 5508 new cases and 55 deaths, a mortality rate of 0.0099855

In other words, it would appear that Covid in NSW is 1.5 times more likely to kill you.

Yeah, right.

I stand by my original assessment, they are not getting tested.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by GILow

Yes, funny you should mention the deaths…

Turns out the death rate in NSW is way, way higher. And I mean MASSIVELY higher. Can’t believe this isn’t being picked up somewhere.

One of my problems with being a mathematician is that I don’t trust myself with numbers, but I just fed the last month of data from Covid live into excel, one column for new cases, one for deaths.

I get 27864 new cases in Victoria with 184 deaths, translating to a mortality rate of 0.0066035, in NSW I get 5508 new cases and 55 deaths, a mortality rate of 0.0099855

In other words, it would appear that Covid in NSW is 1.5 times more likely to kill you.

Yeah, right.

I stand by my original assessment, they are not getting tested.

Dunno exactly what data source you are using but I am presuming you are allowing for the time delay between a positive test and death.

As you know, you need to compare the deaths 'today' with the case numbers of (say) 4 t 8 weeks ago.

[Wotname]

And we do know from the MSM, some NSW deaths were occurring at home without any testing prior to death. Dunno how widespread this was.

Presumably death occurring at hospital will have been positively tested around the time of admission.

Dunno about VIC and deaths at home...

[ozsailer]

It is interesting regarding recorded deaths. There can be no doubt about these deaths but reports, by medical authorities also state that the vast majority of people dying is that they have pre - existing conditions. I am recovering from recent health treatement which has suppressed by immune system. If I were to get Covid without having the vaccine my prognosis would not have been so good . It would be intersting to see if there is or if anyone has the data in regard to those who have died who have not had a pre existing condition.


Oz

[RaymondR]

Hi Dockhead,

On the subject of trivial fines.

I keep a van with a lot of my boat maintenance equipment stored in it. It mainly gets used when I flee the cyclone prone areas for the Australian summer. Consequently I need to maintain a drivers license in the same state as where the van is registered.

When I turned 75 I was required to have a doctors certificate that I am fit to drive a vehicle renewed and lodged with the state authorities every year.

When I went to the licensing office this year it was found that the doctor had made an error as had the previous one and my license had to be reissued. Since I was ready to depart the port in the north I requested the new license be forwarded to a marina in the city where I keep the van.

When I arrived here two months later the license was here along with a letter confirming that my drivers license was to be suspended unless I pay a fine. They had previously texted me of this but since I could not recall ever having committed any traffic infringements since I had transferred my license from my previous state of residence in 2001.

However, the letter informed me that I had gone over a bridge in 2010 and not paid the $3.85 toll. It took me a couple of days to even recall having passed over the bridge but finally remembered that where previously I had been able to pay the toll at a service station when I refueled I had found I could no longer do so and was required to pay it by putting my credit card details onto the internet.

At that time I would have preferred a root canal to putting credit card details on the internet and would only provide it to vendors verbally over the telephone. The bridge folks site did not provide for this. Having wasted about a day trying to find out how to pay the $3.85 I said bugger it and put $3.85 in coins in a ziplok bag and hung it on the hook on the compression post where I kept my keys. I had decided that if they wanted their damned $3.85 they could come get it and then forgot about it (The new owner of that boat is probably mystified as to why $3.85 is hanging on the compression post)

I recall a story which made the rounds during the Vietnam war when the CIA informed LBJ that the US needed to "win the hearts and minds of the people.". LBJ being an earthy sort of bloke as well as a very effective politician replied "It's been my experience that if you grab the other fellow by the testicles and head off in the direction you want to go, his heart and mind will follow." and in this case I had become the other fellow and the original fee of $3.85 had bloomed to $196.50 and I was obliged to follow.

[HankOnthewater]

Originally Posted by GILow

Yes, funny you should mention the deaths…

Turns out the death rate in NSW is way, way higher. And I mean MASSIVELY higher. Can’t believe this isn’t being picked up somewhere.

One of my problems with being a mathematician is that I don’t trust myself with numbers, but I just fed the last month of data from Covid live into excel, one column for new cases, one for deaths.

I get 27864 new cases in Victoria with 184 deaths, translating to a mortality rate of 0.0066035, in NSW I get 5508 new cases and 55 deaths, a mortality rate of 0.0099855

In other words, it would appear that Covid in NSW is 1.5 times more likely to kill you.

Yeah, right.

I stand by my original assessment, they are not getting tested.

I am too keeping records of the various data, for most states. I must say I do not record the deaths for a few reasons.

I am sure you heard it before, people die with Covid or because of Covid. For example, a person that is seriously unwell with sepsis, and has Covid, then it all depends what the treating doctor puts on the certificate as cause of death. Was it Covid? Or was it the earlier acquired sepsis? Or did Covid push the patient over the edge of life? And if the latter was true, again some doctors may still put sepsis as cause of death, as that was the reason the patient died, Covid was just was an additional complication in the disease process, same as MOF (multiple organ failure), the cause of death is not contributed to heart, liver, kidney, or lung failure if the patient has sepsis.

Second reason is that the main reason for restrictions (masks, travel, lockdowns etc), was to reduce the rate of transmission, so the hospital system would not be overwhelmed, and in turn could not provide adequate care to the patients, in turn that some patients were to die, when they did not have to.
Just a few posts upthread Alan M. posted some death rate figures. The number of reported Covid death is very, very small compared by many other causes. I would nearly say insignificant (in Australia), more people die in motor vehicle accidents, by suicide etc. In fact Covid rated as cause number 38, there were 37 other reasons that caused more deaths than Covid.
Some causes show strongly reduced numbers , ie Flu and Pneumonia.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/he...australia/2020

Lastly, all people that were admitted to hospitals in Oz, received proper treatment and the maximum/optimal care. To my knowledge there were no patients that received sub-optimal care. Yes, hospitals were and some still are busy, covid wards were mostly full, doctors and nurses overworked, but patients received the care they needed. Some days, some weeks, some wards and some hospitals were struggling at times, but overall the health system as a total was not overwhelmed.

Data supplied can not always be trusted 100%. Some media might skew the article one way or another. Even the government has understated the number of patients in hospitals. A covid positive patient that is admitted is likely not infectious anymore after 6-8 days, and then this patient is taken off the list as "covid patient" (and not included in the numbers anymore). However, this patient may still need extensive care and even intensive care because of the covid infection that caused other problems.

Do all positive persons with symptoms get tested? If not then number covid cases are much higher.
Do all positive persons that are asymptomatic get tests? Likely not, and the number of positive cases would be higher.
How reliable is the number of tests done each day? If overstated, then the number of covid positive persons would be much higher.

[HankOnthewater]

Originally Posted by ozsailer

It is interesting regarding recorded deaths. There can be no doubt about these deaths but reports, by medical authorities also state that the vast majority of people dying is that they have pre - existing conditions. I am recovering from recent health treatement which has suppressed by immune system. If I were to get Covid without having the vaccine my prognosis would not have been so good . It would be intersting to see if there is or if anyone has the data in regard to those who have died who have not had a pre existing condition.


Oz

I have no access to those details, but I would say there are few that have passed away and did not have any comorbidities or other risk factors (like being immunosuppressed, age>70, aboriginality)

[GILow]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Dunno exactly what data source you are using but I am presuming you are allowing for the time delay between a positive test and death.



As you know, you need to compare the deaths 'today' with the case numbers of (say) 4 t 8 weeks ago.

I used CovidLive, the young geeks’ consolidation site for data. And no, I didn’t adjust for the mortality delay as the rates were basically constant for the month of data I used. True, this means I have slightly skewed mortality rates as a result, but I was comparing rates between states so the skew was eliminated in the final calculation.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by GILow

I used CovidLive, the young geeks’ consolidation site for data. And no, I didn’t adjust for the mortality delay as the rates were basically constant for the month of data I used. True, this means I have slightly skewed mortality rates as a result, but I was comparing rates between states so the skew was eliminated in the final calculation.]

to the mathematician -

[Baronkrak]

Originally Posted by Wotname

You don’t sign up to make yourself safer. You sign up to put your life on the line so that other people’s lives will be protected.... It is the same with those who choose to vaccinate.

You made up that one did you? The ones that I trained joined because they could not find any thing else to do. Now if you choose to put your life on the line for a useless vaccine, that your choice.