The Reality of Living in Australia and Covid

[El Pinguino]

This morning's Victorian news - Experts say vaccine mandates should be dropped at 90% fully vaxxed except for health care etc. Not sure if that is over 12s or over 16s but the two are much the same.
Seems NSW already plans on doing this at 95%.
Whether you use over 12 or or 16 current vaxx rates are around 93% first shot in both states so should hit 95% double vaxxed early in the new year.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/c...28-p56xht.html
That will spike the antivaxxer ratbag's guns.

Full article here
https://www.theage.com.au/national/v...22-p59b4t.html

[GILow]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

If we put the Covid-19 issue to one side for a moment and just focus on:



I think it's not quite 40 years since the QLD state govt did exactly that: dispossess citizens of their houses and land. No protest against the premier (Joh Bjelke-Petersen) in the mainstream media (which depended on government notices and job advertisements for its profitability). One or two small street protests (put down with extreme prejudice by the noble uniformed thugs of the QLD Police Service, always careful to remove their identifying numbers - in case they might be damaged or lost - when gripping a truncheon). No protest vote by the electorate at the subsequent state election (malapportionment of votes to rural seats helped, but the white 'pfella electorate just could not be bothered).

To cut the long story short: QLD premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen wanted to gift land on Cape York and Mornington Island to three or four bauxite miners (Comalco, Billington etc). The land was occupied by people of the Wik nation, initially in the form of a community managed by a Christian church mission. Bjelke-Petersen and his govt passed legislation gifting the land to the miners. The Wik people of Aurukun took suit in the QLD Supreme Court which found that the Wik people had the right to challenge the mining application on their land. Bjelke-Petersen appealed the case to the UK Privy Council, which found in his favour and against the Wik people (forum shopping works, no surprise). Aus Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser passed legislation that would protect the community of Aurukun. Bjelke-Petersen countered with state legislation that converted the community into a local government, putting it outside the reach of Fraser's legislation. Fraser gave up, preferring to keep relations with a state premier than to stand up for any notion of the "rights" of Aus citizens. John Koowarta, a Minychanam-Wik man, took suit in the Aus High Court, citing the Aus Racial Discrimination Act. The High Court of Aus found in Koowarta's favour, judging that Bjelke-Petersen had racially discriminated against Koowarta by refusing to grant him the title to his land that he had gained via the Aus federal Land Fund Commission. Bjelke-Petersen knew that land rights for indigenes were in the future, so he struck first with a decisive king hit: he (and his mate Russ Hinze) gazetted the land as a state national park, dispossessing the Wik people of land (and houses and even a hospital) without compensation.

I'm sure you know the famous quotation from Martin Niemöller. Meditate upon it.

For the High Court case Koowarta v Bjelke-Petersen (1982), see: Koowarta v Bjelke-Petersen [1982] HCA 27; (1982) 153 CLR 168 (11 May 1982)

An important and sad bit of history.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by GILow

An important and sad bit of history.

FNQ - our Alabama.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Don't like it here?



Then Foxtrot Oscar muy pronto back to pommyland whence you came.



Take care the door doesn't smack you on the arse on the way out.

As an aside, at times like this, I wish we Canadians weren't so damn polite.

[GILow]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

FNQ - our Alabama.

Not quite THAT bad. [emoji6]

[GILow]

Actually, I’m flying to Melbourne from Adelaide today, to collect my car which has been stuck in the lockdown for a couple of months.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by GILow

An important and sad bit of history.

I was quite taken with surprise today.

I'd written my short version of the story of Aurukun and Koowarta based on my recollection.

My surprise was that the QLD govt has a page on the interweb, complete with citations (and with facts I had not known or forgotten, including that Whitlam govt innovations such as the Land Fund Commission had played a truly significant part).

See: https://www.qld.gov.au/firstnations/...tories-aurukun

Plus I discovered other gems on the interweb:
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/nat...01-geap4u.html
Kauffman, Paul --- "The Passing of an Aurukun Hero: Francis Yunkaporta" [1999] IndigLawB 27; (1999) 4(19) Indigenous Law Bulletin 22

[Alan Mighty]

To return to what might be the essential point of this thread:

* of the two plague cities in Aus - namely Sydney and Melbourne - why has one of them (MEL) 4.8 times more confirmed new cases of Covid-19 than the other (SYD)?

Recall that these two cities are home to a majority of Australia's people and the majority of Aus's economy (including the unreported grey economy and the 'illegal' black economy).

The conventional comparison of the two gives a few hints: significant differences in the rainfall (SYD receives roughly twice the rain of MEL) and the number of sunny/clear days (107 for SYD vs 46 for MEL - hence the moniker of 'Bleak City'), both more significant than the small differences in ethnic/demographic make-up of the people.

For the quick infographics see: https://mccrindle.com.au/insights/bl...y-infographic/

Among the journalistic surveys of factors that might explain why the plague city of MEL is in more enduring trouble than the plague city of SYD is: https://www.afr.com/policy/health-an...0211119-p59ach

In that story by Jill Margo, she argued that:

"Latitude, humidity and temperature could help to explain differences between Victoria and NSW in controlling the pandemic, according to expert modeller and epidemiologist, associate professor James Trauer of Monash University.

"While these differences may appear small, he says they help explain why Victoria needed to have at least 5 to 10 per cent more of its population vaccinated, compared to NSW, before it could bring the reproduction number below 1, and turn the pandemic around.

"While Melbourne sits at 37.8 degrees south, Sydney is farther north at 33.8 degrees. Although these cities have very close average daily maximum temperatures, Melbourne’s average is made up of more extremes. It has very hot summer days but in winter, Sydney’s average daily maximum is about three degrees warmer.

"With its subtropical climate, Sydney is more humid than Melbourne, which has a temperate oceanic climate."

Weatherspark.com provides the lazy person's way to compare the "climate" of the two cities, albeit limited to presenting temperature in degrees F. Rainfall and humidity (represented as 'muggy conditions') do look significant and especially in the warmer months of the year:
https://weatherspark.com/compare/y/1...tions-Humidity

That leads to questions begging for more analysis and research.

* If humidity is crucial, why have some economies in the humid tropics (I think the standout is Malaysia, which has reported quite a high death rate due to Covid-19) had more trouble than others?

* Has any respectable researcher looked at what happens if the humidity of air conditioned indoor spaces is increased?

* Do live-aboards in marinas fare better than land-lubbers living on dirt?

* Do the so-called 'sea-gypsies' in SE Asia fare better than urbanites?

* Are Indonesia's low case figures low because of poor counting or are the low case numbers real and represent the benefit of maritime SE Asia (in contrast to continental SE Asia)?

[El Pinguino]

I think that climate stuff is nonsense.
Melbourne is a more attractive city for migrants.
Therefore we have more.
Migrants often live in tri-generational households and tend to work in transport and kindred industries.
Melbourne has better infrastructure and is flatter.
So people move around more.
So Delta - having arrived in the City of Hume from Sydney ( thanks Gladys!) - not only spread around Hume and Whittlesea - major migrant areas north of the city - it also jumped over to the Dandenong / Hallam area which are also large migrant areas.
While these areas are now well vaccinated they remain the major infection zones.
The one other area with major outbreaks was Shepparton in north-central Victoria and guess what - it is another area with lots of migrants.

Sydney? Both Covid and the migrant population found largely in the SW and more concentrated. Remember how that earlier outbreak never escaped from the North Shore?

Do I get the same $$$$$ per column inch as that Jill Margo for my research??

This site lets you compare where the outbreaks are in Melbourne and also Sydney.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/c..._redirect=true

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

I think that climate stuff is nonsense.

snip

This site lets you compare where the outbreaks are in Melbourne and also Sydney.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/c..._redirect=true

Thanks for the geographical data. Valuable.

You are correct, El Pinguino, infections vary across communities in a geographic way.

I agree the generalised climate stuff has to be nonsense.

Weatherspark.com uses data from one measuring station for all of SYD. Similarly one station for all of MEL.

A quick look at Bureau of Met observations shows the humidity figures for:
* stations in greater SYD (Latest Weather Observations for the Sydney Area)

* and for greater MEL (Latest Weather Observations for the Melbourne Area)

Note that BoM gives both relative humidity (in %) and Delta-T (in degrees C) for almost all of its stations.

My limited understanding is that Delta-T can be understood as a measure of evaporative potential. High Delta-T numbers numbers suggest that airborne droplets tend to evaporate. Low Delta-T numbers suggest that airborne droplets tend to survive.

I'm unclear how humidity might cause lower rates of infection of Covid-19, given that aerosol and airborne droplets are supposed to be major means of infection.

If that is correct, then why would higher relative humidity/lower Delta-T numbers, both conducive to the survival of air borne droplets, be associated with lower rates of infection?

In other words, is the "higher humidity leads to lower Covid infection" hypothesis:

(a) about the humidity in your personal naso-pharynx.
(b) about the humidity in the air between us.
(c) just another joke designed to mislead us.

Attached: screenclips of weather observation data, showing relative humidity and Delta-T, for weather stations in SYD and in MEL.

[captmikem]

I will let this speak for itself:

https://twitter.com/lisamightydavis/...146587650?s=10

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

...My limited understanding is that Delta-T can be understood as a measure of evaporative potential. High Delta-T numbers numbers suggest that airborne droplets tend to evaporate. Low Delta-T numbers suggest that airborne droplets tend to survive.

I'm unclear how humidity might cause lower rates of infection of Covid-19, given that aerosol and airborne droplets are supposed to be major means of infection.

If that is correct, then why would higher relative humidity/lower Delta-T numbers, both conducive to the survival of air borne droplets, be associated with lower rates of infection?

In other words, is the "higher humidity leads to lower Covid infection" hypothesis:

(a) about the humidity in your personal naso-pharynx.
(b) about the humidity in the air between us.
(c) just another joke designed to mislead us.

Attached: screenclips of weather observation data, showing relative humidity and Delta-T, for weather stations in SYD and in MEL.

Or could it be simply that 'less coughing equals less transmission'? ...working under the prevalence of humidifiers in the houses of cold sufferers during the (comparatively) dry winters here in the Deep South...

Though it would be interesting if the little buggers 'drowned' (or lost/reduced their 'viability') in the presence of too much humidity in the lungs...

[ozsailer]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

OK, but whoever it's aimed towards, it's not false. The state has said itself that putting a charge against property is one of the enforcement options. Get a charge put on your home, and you do certainly "risk having your home seized". I'm not really sure what you're objecting to; it's not even an exaggeration.

Dockhead, PLEASE stop with this hysteria. 1) you not in Oz, I am - this is just ********. 2) People came into Australia on the understanding that they would have to undergo quarantine at their expense. If they go back on their obligation I would be chasing them for the debt as well. 3) To my knowledge not 1 I repeat not 1 house has been repossessed to pay a debt.

Stop spreading misinformation. Its helps no one and only makes you appear to be trolling for the sake of trolling.


Ozsailer.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by captmikem

I will let this speak for itself:

https://twitter.com/lisamightydavis/...146587650?s=10

Why?

Just another note from the authoritarian playbook. Or, at best, the pre-authoritarian one...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPkb...w0VTzw&index=6

In case you only have a 37 second attention span, skip to about 9:10. If not, try also;



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authoritarianism#Current

https://www.resurgentdictatorship.or...ulating-media/

https://www.resurgentdictatorship.or...arian-tactics/

https://www.timothysnyder.org/books/on-tyranny-tr
or
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cu...phic-narrative

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3nJrtKPI00

The specific relevancy to Oz starts at 19:00, though most of the rest is also.


And of course there's tons of other real information (i.e. not 'social media' propoganda) available everywhere.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by captmikem

I will let this speak for itself:

https://twitter.com/lisamightydavis/...146587650?s=10

It doesn't say much - in fact it says Sweet Fanny Adams.

Interesting though to see the militarily uniform, as an reasonably well known Australian (ex army) said today (and I am paraphrasing), You don’t sign up to make yourself safer. You sign up to put your life on the line so that other people’s lives will be protected.... It is the same with those who choose to vaccinate.