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Old 29-06-2020, 17:45   #121
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

The issue I have with the lock down thing is " you cant stay locked down forever" .

Tahiti locked down and had zero cases up until 2 days ago. They started repatriating people by plane and Bingo they now have some cases. The borders for proper flights open on the 15th July, how is the covid thing just not going to start up again?

Cruising is opening up here as well as Fiji, will it just shut down again, this another reason I'm working my way west, to many unknowns.

Ann, I also feel sorry for the leaders, what a balancing act they have, they can't win in my opinion, slow the velocity of the disease or slow the velocity of money.
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Old 29-06-2020, 18:02   #122
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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SNIP

Now what was foolish in the US was acting as if it was over, time to head back to the bars and dance clubs etc. Surely there will soon be a pull back and restrictions will be eased, but not eradicated.
If thatís what was meant by management, well then OK, that can be done, itís likely not Constitutional, and thatís something that needs to be considered in my opinion, but Iíve not heard a peep on it.

I know itís not realistic, but people ought to be able to manage themselves.
As I have posted before there is no one size fits all answer. One classic example is comparing Florida and New York. Both states are close to the same size and while the demographics in Florida are a little heavier in the older age cohort it is close enough for government work.

But while Florida was always a lot more open than New York the death rates were different by an order of magnitude; in Florida 16 per 100,000 and in New Your 169 per 100,000. One factor was Florida treated retirement homes much differently than New York; a second factor was heavy use of mass transit in New York while there is almost none in Florida.

No question the New York's decision to force retirement homes to accept peeps with COVID-19 and Florida's refusal to do so is something that could be changed. But there is no way New York, and more to the point New York City, could do without mass transit.

I would point out the famous quotation about the Constitution; "The Constitution is not a death pact" and the government has powers in emergencies to do a lot of stuff. Florida recently has prohibited alcohol sales in bars. The bars can still be open; closing them would probably run afoul of the Constitution but the state does have the power to regulate alcohol sales, or prohibit them completely.

I do agree it is not realistic to expect people to manage themselves.
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Old 29-06-2020, 19:03   #123
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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(...)


This time is different!

No no, it isn't. It is just like all the previous times!


There are some new elements though: we are running out of space, we are running out of resources, we are running out of potable water, etc.


Whatever it is we are running out of will only get more and more expensive. Think of land prices, bottled water, healthy food.


Back to the value thing. I measure value using standard methods - just as you can look up in any CFA course. All definitions are arbitrary so it is convenient to use the definition most commonly accepted in the field. All methods have their limitations (known and widely discussed) and the one deployed (often many, to create more than one signal) should be the one best fit for the investment in hand.



The problem is that when most of a field agree on definitions we tend to forget about that arbitrary word. So some will think these are the only definitions and stop looking around (some will also kill over definitions - just think of religions).


But I say do not kill yourself over definitions and keep an open mind. The best things happen when we first master the definitions and then we reject them. Great deals happen. Opportunities crop up. Revolutions push the history forward (backwards too, at times).


Stuff like Facebook, I do not consider this in terms of value. I look at it in terms of betting. I will explain.


First, you need to decide if you believe in boom or bust (simplified, as we reject the neutral position). Next you must find the guts to follow your belief (warning, religion enters the image). Once you opted for what you BELIEVE will happen and when you have found the guts to (buy or sell the position) then you bet on what you believe in.


Once you are vested, it is best to preach your position. Some idiots may believe you and join in the game, this improves your chances of closing the deal with a profit.



So, to me, Facebook, Bitcoin, Wirecard (at EUR 1.08) or Boeing (at USD 93) are not things that require valuation. These are bets. You bet I bet we all do. Those who bet best, win big way. You must have heard of people who live off horse racing. They are called bookmakers.


So. Valuation. Briefly. Yes. But not in relation to companies or other investments that are based on faith.



Take two. Valuation. Anything is worth as much as somebody else is willing to pay to buy it from you. Simple, elegant and avoids long and contorted formulas.



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Old 29-06-2020, 19:37   #124
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

Ratios.


Well said.


This time, in Martinique:


- fuel (as always, in Martinique)
- some food (but not daily food, only large orders - e.g. provisoning a yacht)
- water (yes!) not due to Covid but because of drought).


In Antigua it was impossible to get a new sail made.


I also heard that some islands (St Vincent Grenadines?) did not sell alcohol.


(Antigua and St Vincent are things I have heard from others, maybe not true).



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Old 29-06-2020, 20:41   #125
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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No no, it isn't. It is just like all the previous times!


There are some new elements though: we are running out of space, we are running out of resources, we are running out of potable water, etc.


Whatever it is we are running out of will only get more and more expensive. Think of land prices, bottled water, healthy food.


Back to the value thing. I measure value using standard methods - just as you can look up in any CFA course. All definitions are arbitrary so it is convenient to use the definition most commonly accepted in the field. All methods have their limitations (known and widely discussed) and the one deployed (often many, to create more than one signal) should be the one best fit for the investment in hand.



The problem is that when most of a field agree on definitions we tend to forget about that arbitrary word. So some will think these are the only definitions and stop looking around (some will also kill over definitions - just think of religions).


But I say do not kill yourself over definitions and keep an open mind. The best things happen when we first master the definitions and then we reject them. Great deals happen. Opportunities crop up. Revolutions push the history forward (backwards too, at times).


Stuff like Facebook, I do not consider this in terms of value. I look at it in terms of betting. I will explain.


First, you need to decide if you believe in boom or bust (simplified, as we reject the neutral position). Next you must find the guts to follow your belief (warning, religion enters the image). Once you opted for what you BELIEVE will happen and when you have found the guts to (buy or sell the position) then you bet on what you believe in.


Once you are vested, it is best to preach your position. Some idiots may believe you and join in the game, this improves your chances of closing the deal with a profit.



So, to me, Facebook, Bitcoin, Wirecard (at EUR 1.08) or Boeing (at USD 93) are not things that require valuation. These are bets. You bet I bet we all do. Those who bet best, win big way. You must have heard of people who live off horse racing. They are called bookmakers.


So. Valuation. Briefly. Yes. But not in relation to companies or other investments that are based on faith.



Take two. Valuation. Anything is worth as much as somebody else is willing to pay to buy it from you. Simple, elegant and avoids long and contorted formulas.



barnakiel
Your a betting man which means you are a gambler. I try never to gamble but I will take risks but they are calculated risks and I do everything in my power to mitigate the downside. I lose some of course but to date it's not been too bad. I'm not suggesting that you can't be successful gambling but personally I dont have the stomach for it.
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Old 30-06-2020, 01:41   #126
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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The boat shoe preppers are still in a panic. This will pass. Not a fast as you want. A vaccine will be developed and the pandemic will be over. All will be go back to normal very quickly. You will have lost a summer and added some grey hairs.

I survived Covid-19 that was acquired in March and I promise you that you do not want it. For some people the affects linger quite a long time. For me, its been over 3 months and I was no where near going to a hospital for treatment. It is worse than the flu for many but still only deadly for 1-1.5%. Apparently some have no affects at all. Results vary.

Developed nations abroad are in a great place in medical history. Preventive treatments for polio, cholera, typhus, TB, small pox, anthrax, tetanus, rabies, malaria, hepatitis. Give em a chance to do their job.
Glad to hear youíve survived it! Youíre marked now as a man of our times.

But rather than a straightforward problem with a vaccine solution, whatís happening is going to be more complex.

First, after lockdowns, now weíre in the yo-yo stage, alternating between spread of the virus and declining rates. Second, treatment is improving, and medical prevention and dramatic treatments (eg, monoclonal antibodies) will soon spread.

This means autumn and winter looks like improving times to travel. These innovations will be more widely adopted and available in months ahead, making the consequences of infectious trouble incurred by travel significantly smaller.

Third, while a vaccineís prospects look bright, based on inventions and accelerating trials, Iíve read a couple of papers that complicate this goal.

First, active antibodies from viral contraction last a brief three month or less for many. So, get it and forget it is not whatís going to happen.

Furthermore, getting a vaccine that generates a long-term immunity may therefore be tricky. (Good thing there are many candidates in the pipeline.)

Sorting out the more viable vaccines from the least useful will take time, and may force repeated errors. This may be a discovery process instead of anything close to Ďonce and done,í as weíve hoped and prayed.
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Old 30-06-2020, 01:49   #127
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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...

First, active antibodies from viral contraction last a brief three month or less for many. So, get it and forget it is not what’s going to happen.
...

Currently the common flu vaccine must be taken every year for the new strains. Does this mean one have to take vaccine every year for this cov sar 2?

Vaccines has a very high risk of adverse reactions. Some will make a person weaker and easier for the real infection eg Antibody dependent enhancement

There are some 33 different strains and the best of all is D614G . Vaccine hype is mega bucks for big pharma but not for me.

Maybe boosting the body with vitamins D, high vit C, Spirulina and zinc. Start taking hydroxychloroquine with zinc on the first sign of coughing ?
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Old 30-06-2020, 05:56   #128
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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Currently the common flu vaccine must be taken every year for the new strains. Does this mean one have to take vaccine every year for this cov sar 2?

Vaccines has a very high risk of adverse reactions. Some will make a person weaker and easier for the real infection eg Antibody dependent enhancement

There are some 33 different strains and the best of all is D614G . Vaccine hype is mega bucks for big pharma but not for me.

Maybe boosting the body with vitamins D, high vit C, Spirulina and zinc. Start taking hydroxychloroquine with zinc on the first sign of coughing ?

Would love to see a source (other than Face book) for any part of what you just wrote.
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Old 30-06-2020, 06:19   #129
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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Vaccines has a very high risk of adverse reactions. Some will make a person weaker and easier for the real infection eg Antibody dependent enhancement
...


Maybe boosting the body with vitamins D, high vit C, Spirulina and zinc. Start taking hydroxychloroquine with zinc on the first sign of coughing ?
This is typical anti-science bunk. Vaccines do not have a "very high risk of adverse reactions." They carry a very small risk.

There rest of these "maybe" claims are either based on minimal research with no definitive conclusions, or are pure bunk.
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Old 30-06-2020, 07:48   #130
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

Stay OFF the politics, last warning.
Make political posts and as a min all your work posting will go for naught, cause they will be deleted, and you can occur strikes and be banned.
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Old 30-06-2020, 09:05   #131
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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Your a betting man which means you are a gambler. I try never to gamble but I will take risks but they are calculated risks and I do everything in my power to mitigate the downside. I lose some of course but to date it's not been too bad. I'm not suggesting that you can't be successful gambling but personally I dont have the stomach for it.

50/50


A gambler when I am dealing with gambles.


An investor when I deal with investments.


A navigator when I deal with winds, tides and sail.


You want to study the concept of investor-specific risk preference. You will like what you read. People who avoid risk, should keep on doing so. Know thyself and act accordingly.



My point is: do not apply gambling analysis (games theory,etc.) to investments, do not apply investment analysis to things which are gambles (covid, casino, crypto-curriencies, Facebook IPO, etc.).


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Old 30-06-2020, 09:13   #132
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

Hey did you hear the Azores are locking down or something?


A realse said 'OK to visit Portugal EXCEPT Madeir and the Azores'.


And a Brit here got refused booking in Horta on the same grounds.


Interesting. Anybody heard anything from a reliable source?


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Old 30-06-2020, 09:14   #133
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

And an official ARC statement expected at 16:00 UTC.


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Old 30-06-2020, 09:24   #134
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

Here they go:


https://www.worldcruising.com/arc/ne...ID=268206&src=


I am truly impressed that the ARC decided to push on with the event.


This implies sailors from high-risk groups (very many ARC participants are elderly people) coming from high risk countries (UK, Sweden, Netherlands) will travel to a practically Cocid-free island (Grand Canaria) !


Sounds selfish, sounds business-first, sound high risk.


What if the much feared second wave does arrive in the fall and all these boats get locked down in Santa Lucia, St Vincent, Cabo Verde, Gran Canaria ???


What are your opinions on this?


I am puzzled by this decision, much as I understand in today's economy everybody is trying to survive.


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Old 30-06-2020, 10:16   #135
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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I'd like to offer an alternative perspective to those affected. Before I do, I'll declare that my 2020 plans are also in disarray - my boat is on the hard in Spain and I'm high and dry back home in NZ. My April flights to get me back to the boat have been refunded and I have no idea when I will be able to reinstate them. I'm worried that I didn't properly decommission the boat before leaving as I had no idea it would be for such an extended time. I'm not complaining too much though and this is where my alternative thinking takes over:
I'm healthy. I haven't lost any loved ones to Covid related illness, though I do know of a few unlucky ones, once or twice removed. I have a roof over my head and I have food in my belly each day. I'm not stuck on my boat between countries feeling spurned and unwanted. I look out the window everyday at the beautiful Waitemata harbour and cruising grounds that surround Auckland and I lament that the closest I can get to them right now is on a ferry. I'm seeing a rise across the world, in authoritarianism (totalitarianism??) - something I detest with a passion. I dream every day of my plans for crossing the Atlantic this coming season for the start of my long passage home, but I know it's only 50/50 as to whether or not I will. In short, I'm missing out on a lot of sailing adventures and the world as I have known it is shifting beneath my feet. There are many others far worse off than me.
But I've been around the block a few times and I've seen enough recessions, political upheavals, terrorist acts and so on and so on to know that my time for fun will come again. It might be different than before and I might have to change my plans but I know for certain that one day soon I will have another chance to live my dreams. Or shape new ones. So my message, if it's not already clear, is that we should be thankful for what we have and be hopeful for what is to come again, if we just wait it out patiently and rise to the challenges that change presents to us.
Kia Kaha (Google will translate for you)
I see on the news that Kiwis and many others (including us Canadians) will shortly be allowed into the EU.
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