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Old 04-07-2020, 08:12   #226
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

There are really two viruses that are bedeviling us, and they are inextricably related; a ideological virus and a truly novel virus.

Unlike the EU and the Far East, among others the US has failed from the beginning to engage a nationally coordinated, mandated and effective response to Covid. Two camps - one ideological and one scientific - were and remain at odds. The use of masks is an example.

They both must be addressed for us to belatedly recover from the string of failures we have suffered to date. The chances of unity and success are remote today; we may have another go at it in a few weeks with a new explosion of cases, to be inevitably followed by like exponential growth of deaths following. It is possible that it will take the threat of breakdown of our country to finally cause the ideological and scientific to come together with a common and effective response.

In the meanwhile, and I speak as both a sailor and a retired public health nurse, I don't think serious cruising is in the cards.

The US is becoming a pariah, and Americans are not welcome in the EU. We even have states at odds with one another, with successful states afraid of visitors from failing states. There are ever fewer destinations in the Caribbean for us, and this will only grow as we may fail even more.

It's a mess. So unless we are ready to do a sailing version of Robinson Crusoe, cruising is out.

Check out this video of a sailing couple who found themselves rejected in the Carib....

https://youtu.be/-XKLWBO476o
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:46   #227
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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We had planned a Bahamas trip and possible north up the east coast. However, other family health issues (non-Covid) delayed this, then Covid really squashed it all. So we have been making the most of things and exploring our local area by boat (northern Gulf Coast). I have to say, I have never seen so many boats on the water! and boat dealers in our area are reporting record sales - particularly of day boats such as pontoon boats. I guess everyone is using stimulus money and vacation money to buy a boat.
Agreed. As I said, I think this whole Covid Apocalypse will accelerate an already-present trend of fewer truly international cruisers, and a corresponding increase in more local or national cruising. For those of us with large national waterways, it will be increasingly easier to choose to stay at, or near, home.

This trend apparently predates Covid. It was mentioned in the latest iteration of Jimmy Cornell's world cruiser's census that he does every few years. The last one came out a couple of years ago, and there he already sees the trend developing, in part due to increased political tensions. Covid-19 is only going to add to these.
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:03   #228
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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...The US is becoming a pariah, and Americans are not welcome in the EU. We even have states at odds with one another, with successful states afraid of visitors from failing states. There are ever fewer destinations in the Caribbean for us, and this will only grow as we may fail even more.
Sadly, this seems to be the case. You can add Canada to the list of countries hanging out the "Not Welcome" sign to Americans. Of course, this goes both ways right now. By joint agreement our international border remains closed.

The closure was extended to July 21, but I can tell you there is very little desire on this side of the border to open the gates -- not until the USA can get its collective act together. But of course, acting collectively is exactly the challenge.

I said very early on that one of the factors which might influence the trajectory of this pandemic is the levels of social trust/cohesion, and ability to act for the collective good. Some societies measure higher on this scale, some lower.
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:35   #229
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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I think you better start watching a better quality news program. Preferably one with real news .
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:42   #230
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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(...)


Unlike the EU and the Far East, among others the US has failed from the beginning to engage a nationally coordinated, mandated and effective response to Covid.



(...)



Jimbo,


Unfortunately, your view of the EU is wrong.


The EU failed and in many ways. How otherwise could we get the virus spread between EU states so rapidly?


Even worse the EU spreads FALSE statements about 'opening EU borders' etc.


Actually, each and every single country here is doing what they please. The EU only adds to the otherwise big enough chaos by publishing information that creates outward impressions of calm and order.


The best thing the EU could have done was to act early. Now best they can do is just SHUT UP now and let our governments sort out ways towards keeping as many people as we can safe and trying not to sink our economies (even further) in the process.


Some countries did fine (e.g. Germany) other countries much less so (e.g. Sweden, Italy, Spain)



I write this from Spain. The EU has failed. Again.


Far East, OK, they seem to be more in charge. But I do not live there and cannot comment.



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Old 04-07-2020, 11:28   #231
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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I did the numbers. NYC has OVER 1,800 deaths/million. The USA (including NYC) has UNDER 400/M. 8.5 M population divided by the NYS published deaths in the 5 boroughs.

NYC deaths are way out of proportion to anywhere else. PART of that reasons is they say they forced infected folks back into nursing homes.

But you really canít in good faith look at NYC numbers and apply them to any other significant population. What ever NYC did, donít.
Rather regretfully I am compelled to repeat myself. Not tie first time I have posted NY and NJ have a death rate an order of magnitude greater than plenty of other places. The thing is so have other what I will call big cities that were heavily infected; often due to an influx of travelers.

So saying "What ever NYC did, donít." kinda ignores the fact that the density and travel to places like NYC is not something most of the rest of the world can do.

I live in a rural county with few travelers from the outside. Basically no COVID-19 here. On the other I have a couple of good friends in Mexico who are telling horror stories about what is happening there; and probably plenty of other places in the third world. Mexico City is a scary example.

As for comparing numbers I simply don't buy what China is selling. Saying there have been 9 or 16 deaths in a city of over twenty million with areas of it shut down simply does not pass the smell test.

Bottom line is COVID-19 is a real threat but we know so little about it most posts are simply speculation since the real numbers are unknown.
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Old 04-07-2020, 16:04   #232
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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Originally Posted by Mike OReilly;
I said very early on that one of the factors which [I
might[/I] influence the trajectory of this pandemic is the levels of social trust/cohesion, and ability to act for the collective good. Some societies measure higher on this scale, some lower.
The US sent several planes loaded with infected people back to Guatemala, on purpose I guess. How could they not know? I need to kiss off getting back to my boat any time soon.
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Old 04-07-2020, 16:19   #233
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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We just came out of 3 months in Dominica. They have not had an active in something over a month. They have very squishy plans about reopening, more like thoughts than plans.

Thatís the problem they are faced with. They now donít have the disease, but they have no income. Itís a real bind.
And my oh my, what a pickle they would be in if they did get a spike in cases. I would hazard a guess that they do not have a lot of hospital beds, esp ICU beds.
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Old 04-07-2020, 17:25   #234
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

Given the recent developments in the US we have decided to suspend our 2020/-21 Caribbean plans.


The Caribbean is mostly a US playground (just like the Med is a European beach). So with the soaring numbers in the US we believe the Caribbean may be a very dangerous place to be in the fall.


Unless the Caribbean states place a ban on US tourists. But if they do, they will rather make a total rather than a selective ban. Imho.



I still hope we might go after all but I have already arranged for a chalet in the Alps as our plan B.


b.
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Old 04-07-2020, 21:56   #235
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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I am in Mooloolaba on a junk rigged Top Hat called Blue Moon, having sold Arion last year...
Graham, you might want to change the details in your Profile, as it shows you still owning a Tom Thumb 24.....not the new Top Hat 25!
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Old 04-07-2020, 22:24   #236
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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yes, the gold thing does look to be a thing...

what worries me, as I have mentioned before, is the rising desperation, the strife...

all over, sailors will probably buddy up more, anchor in clusters more, look out for one another even more than they do today.

and if we talk about desperation, we have to discuss an underlying issue (besides the destruction of the environment, which, to me, leads the most fragile to desperation), and this is the wealth gap.

before this pandee/marke crash hit us, 81 percent of the globe's wealth, riches and resources were already held by 11 percent of the population

this wealth-gap desperation and the desperation that comes from the destruction of the environment are what i have on my radar as a still-hopeful sailor...
Hear! Hear! And a big 'amen' to that!

But to further add confusion to the already murky financial world, gold is only valuable as long as we maintain the "faith" in it we currently have. At the end of the day, it's just a shiny metal that costs no more to mine than alumina from bauxite or iron from magnetite....

Remember the Bronze Age? Gold was valuable then because it was rare and harder to mine. These days, there are gold mines everywhere, and many are only profitable (marginal) because of the inflated gold 'price'...

Personally, I think when / if the SHTF, potatoes and seeds will suddenly become the new 'gold'.

Perhaps not 'worth' as much, in dollar terms, but will be way more desirable, as food is essential whereas jewellery and mobile phones are not.

There are stories in Oz, historically, about river steamer paddleboats in the 19th C that got caught by falling river levels and were stuck, sometimes for over a year. One crew famously planted the crop of potatoes they were carying to market, and doubled the size of the cargo as a result, making for a much better profit when they (eventually) refloated and completed their journey.

So for those wondering what to do as cruisers going forward, I for one would be investing in some 'heirloom variety' seeds - i.e. seeds that grow plants that produce viable seeds, rather than the non-viable 'hybrids' Big Farma sells to farmers - and carry a small supply of different useful food seed packs. For example, tomatoes, lettuces, cabbages, pumpkins, potatoes and so on. Perhaps also carry seeds of fruits like apple, orange, pear, pineapple, paw paw and so on, depending on where you are going to be cruising.

Because if the SHTF, seeds will be the first thing that disappear, as the global Big Farma supply chains break down and, with no capital, no-one will be able to buy from Big Farma.

Turn up on an island somewhere with seeds to plant for food, and you are assured of a good welcome! And food!
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Old 04-07-2020, 23:02   #237
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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Hear! Hear! And a big 'amen' to that!

But to further add confusion to the already murky financial world, gold is only valuable as long as we maintain the "faith" in it we currently have. At the end of the day, it's just a shiny metal that costs no more to mine than alumina from bauxite or iron from magnetite....

Remember the Bronze Age? Gold was valuable then because it was rare and harder to mine. These days, there are gold mines everywhere, and many are only profitable (marginal) because of the inflated gold 'price'...

Personally, I think when / if the SHTF, potatoes and seeds will suddenly become the new 'gold'.

Perhaps not 'worth' as much, in dollar terms, but will be way more desirable, as food is essential whereas jewellery and mobile phones are not.

There are stories in Oz, historically, about river steamer paddleboats in the 19th C that got caught by falling river levels and were stuck, sometimes for over a year. One crew famously planted the crop of potatoes they were carying to market, and doubled the size of the cargo as a result, making for a much better profit when they (eventually) refloated and completed their journey.

So for those wondering what to do as cruisers going forward, I for one would be investing in some 'heirloom variety' seeds - i.e. seeds that grow plants that produce viable seeds, rather than the non-viable 'hybrids' Big Farma sells to farmers - and carry a small supply of different useful food seed packs. For example, tomatoes, lettuces, cabbages, pumpkins, potatoes and so on. Perhaps also carry seeds of fruits like apple, orange, pear, pineapple, paw paw and so on, depending on where you are going to be cruising.

Because if the SHTF, seeds will be the first thing that disappear, as the global Big Farma supply chains break down and, with no capital, no-one will be able to buy from Big Farma.

Turn up on an island somewhere with seeds to plant for food, and you are assured of a good welcome! And food!
Might surprise you to learn that most inhabited islands have lots of plant food. Some might be overstocked with breadfruit but thatís a decent staple. Fish and local plants have been keeping people alive for hundreds of years.
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Old 05-07-2020, 00:01   #238
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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No no, it isn't. It is just like all the previous times!

There are some new elements though: we are running out of space, we are running out of resources, we are running out of potable water, etc.

Whatever it is we are running out of will only get more and more expensive. Think of land prices, bottled water, healthy food.

Back to the value thing. I measure value using standard methods - just as you can look up in any CFA course. All definitions are arbitrary so it is convenient to use the definition most commonly accepted in the field. All methods have their limitations (known and widely discussed) and the one deployed (often many, to create more than one signal) should be the one best fit for the investment in hand.

Stuff like Facebook, I do not consider this in terms of value. I look at it in terms of betting. I will explain.

First, you need to decide if you believe in boom or bust (simplified, as we reject the neutral position). Next you must find the guts to follow your belief (warning, religion enters the image). Once you opted for what you BELIEVE will happen and when you have found the guts to (buy or sell the position) then you bet on what you believe in.

Once you are vested, it is best to preach your position. Some idiots may believe you and join in the game, this improves your chances of closing the deal with a profit.

So, to me, Facebook, Bitcoin, Wirecard (at EUR 1.08) or Boeing (at USD 93) are not things that require valuation. These are bets. You bet I bet we all do. Those who bet best, win big way. You must have heard of people who live off horse racing. They are called bookmakers.

So. Valuation. Briefly. Yes. But not in relation to companies or other investments that are based on faith.

Take two. Valuation. Anything is worth as much as somebody else is willing to pay to buy it from you. Simple, elegant and avoids long and contorted formulas. barnakiel
This is precisely what I have always believed since I first looked into the stockmarkets aged about 20, and opted not to invest (bet).

As I understand it, the idea of Joint Stock Holders, and a 'market' in which such people could 'invest' was primarily a way to spread risk and bring businesses a new source of capital.

Then 'traders' began 'betting' on the rise and fall of stocks (companies) and the whole thing went to hell in a hand basket.

Exchanges still perform that basic function - capital raising from IPO and later POs, but it's the 'gambling' element that is the prime cause of the volatility, and greed the source of the so-called 'products' that set off the GFC, like CDOs etc.

Basically, it's mostly about greed....

But, apparently, "greed is good"..!!
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Old 05-07-2020, 00:13   #239
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

RS - it depends which islands!! Some like American Samoa have become so dependent on a Western style diet they are consuming huge quantities of processed foods, like SPAM, instead of fishing or growing pigs as they once did.
Outer-lying islands, and less developed nations, this is less of an issue and the people do tend to have local produce markets and supply chains that are semi-sustainable.
But most Western countries don't have this 'sustainable' culture, relying almost entirely on imported food, especially vegetables and so on. Flour, that kind of thing.
We're not talking equatorial/temperate islands with wild coconuts and breadfruit or cassava. This is a very small sample of island life.
I think Atoll's idea of heading to the Scillies would be sensible, as there is a local market garden economy there, that would merely need to be 'ramped up' in the event of a SHTF scenario.
But if you're out there, cruising, and can't 'choose' where to get to, then better have the means for your OWN sustenance on board, not just a six month supply of tins that is soon depleted.
My point is, basically, if you are going to do this to be sure to get 'heirloom seed' not the radiated hybrid crap from the local garden centre, which won't set seed for you to harvest for future year's crops.
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Old 05-07-2020, 13:10   #240
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Re: The COVID influence on Future Cruising

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Unfortunately, your view of the EU is wrong. The EU failed and in many ways. How otherwise could we get the virus spread between EU states so rapidly?




With all due respect, but with all said and done, the numbers tell the story. If US travel was allowed by the EU, I'd move there tomorrow, as our country is close to chaos. Really. And the explosion of new cases, followed by deaths will take the US off the chart. Pitiful. I bought my Bristol 32 just in time to have to store it.



Sad.
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