Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

If it is legal to continue outdoor recreational activities in your jurisdiction, such as hiking, strolling in the park, or boating, just be sure to utilize proper self isolation, which means keeping distance from anyone other than those with which you are cohabitating with. So this means that for boating, the only persons that should be on a boat are those that live together on shore, or if you are a liveaboard boater / long term cruiser then your shipmates.

Do not allow interaction between people you do not cohabitate with because you should consider yourself to be the infected one, the contagious one and that you are a vector of the disease and can cause infection, illness or death to each and everyone you come near. Think and act a if you are Typhoid Mary. Recognize your participation in the social contract of protecting others.

So yes, from an pandemic mitigation standpoint, and if permitted by law, you can sail single handed, to and fro, your marina, or with the family or partners you reside together with on land, but not with anyone else. There be no sailing schools, sailing teams or clubs intermingling at port or on board vessels. No drinks, socializing, dinners shared between friends or family that do not reside together. No interaction with marina staff, fueling dock hands, etc.

This business about considering yourself "Typhoid Mary" and the social contract is very eloquently stated. And I think fundamentally right.


HOWEVER, I do not know why we should draw an artificial line around people we cohabitate with. I know families who visit each other on an extremely selective basis and don't see anything wrong with that -- two families who have themselves been in long isolation and are taking great care, will hardly transmit anything to one another. The bigger the group of people who meet, the greater the risk, but the risk should be quite small if you do it right and with an extremely selective group of people. Up here it is common for a couple, for example, to choose one other couple they will meet in person. I think it's sound practice, making the lockdown much more tolerable and therefore sustainable.



So that's in fact the standard of my yacht club, which has closed the club house and locker rooms and stopped large scale gatherings, but yacht crews are allowed to come together to do race practice and sail together.



I have been in isolation for a couple of weeks myself, but a friend did come and spend the weekend with me and help me work on the boat. A friend who has been also in quarantine with his wife for a couple of weeks and is extremely careful. It was an extremely gratifying break from isolation for both of us.



This lockdown is not perfect in any case and is not intended to 100% stop the disease, just slow down the spread. Every time you go to the grocery store or pharmacy or touching any surface outside your own home or even handle a package you are taking a certain small risk. Total isolation makes the lockdown much harder to tolerate and disrupts life more without a huge increase in safety compared to very limited and careful social contacts, which only adds one more to a list of other very small risks we take.

[Montanan]

Dockhead, perhaps there is a bit of a language barrier.

In British and American English the word, Essential has this meaning:

adjective
1. absolutely necessary; extremely important.

Nothing about sailing involves essential travel or purpose.

If you infect another or are infected by another you aid in increasing the R0

[R naught] and thereby break the social contract.

Kind of like saying it is okay to shoot a few rounds from my gun in the city, the odds being that the bullet will not hit someone, or if they do, perhaps only injure them modestly; ah sure, someone might get killed but that is a remote prospect that I am willing to take. Note to self: I am shooting the bullets away from myself, only endangering others, so what the heck.

[alluringarctic]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Not seeing why you need to stop in any other port in Norway. You can get fresh water from any creek along the coast and get fish from the sea in five minutes more than you can eat in week. That, salt and potatoes you are good to go for months.

I'm staying in Norway currently, not in a hurry to go anywhere But I sail year around north of Tromso, and we are used to anchoring in all kinds of places and conditions to access the skiing. But during the winter the weather can be a bit crazy and not being welcomed into harbors narrows down the options a bit. I understand the worries that everyone has here and for now we're staying put in one place, like pretty much all the other cruisers around the world.

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Maybe in sailing clubs, dunno anyone being in one. The sailors I know are common folk thou you can't know for sure as most are similarly casual regardless of their number..

If you know the Finnish boating scene well then you must've met some boat club members. For example in Helsinki two thirds of the city's boat berths are managed and administered by boat clubs. One third is administered by the city and those do not require a membership. (On top of these there are also some very expensive private marinas).

The clubs aren't necessarily expensive and most of the clubs try to cater for young sailors and offer cheap programs for the kids etc. And the city berths are cheap (if you can get one) so that adults can buy a cheap boat and sail with that. So yes it is definitely possible to sail in Finland even if you aren't wealthy, and it is probably way more common than in many other countries.

But what I actually commented on was the connotation of sailing, and how it's still perceived as being for the "somewhat wealthy" and/or "better" people, for the lack of better words (English not my native language, sorry)... In the end it's still a hobby that's not attainable by a big part of the population. Sure, us sailors ourselves might not admit it or think that way, but go and ask 1000 random Finnish people and that's going to be the public opinion.

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It's all relative, but I must say, you Finns have simply no idea how lucky you are. You don't actually have anything like "class" anywhere in your society, in the sense we use the word in the English speaking countries. Indeed my very yacht club in Helsinki was founded -- in the 1890's! -- as the "Helsinki Workers' Sailing Club!" You guys just don't have any idea! It's one of things which makes sailing extra pleasant in the Nordic countries -- no one looks at you with euro signs in their eyes like they do in Southern Europe. Sailing is a friendly, cheap and democratic sport which is really accessible to everyone -- Finland has the highest number of sailboats per capita of any country in the world. This is totally different from what it is like in other countries. €10 marina fees in many places, in a country where almost no one earns less than €20 per hour and the average salary is €3540 per month, about triple the average salary in Greece. Whereas the marina fees in many places in Italy cost more for a long weekend, than the marina workers earn in a month. It's a totally different universe.

I understand what you're saying and yes, in comparison to many other places it's a heaven! Your numbers are a bit wrong though, majority of Finns earn less than 20€ per hour, the median average income is around 16-17 € per hour. I also think that "€10 marina fees in many places" is an exaggeration, but I'll not get into that as I don't have any statistics And anchoring is free anyway!

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Dockhead, perhaps there is a bit of a language barrier.

In British and American English the word, Essential has this meaning:

adjective
1. absolutely necessary; extremely important.

Nothing about sailing involves essential travel or purpose.

If you infect another or are infected by another you aid in increasing the R0

[R naught] and thereby break the social contract.

Kind of like saying it is okay to shoot a few rounds from my gun in the city, the odds being that the bullet will not hit someone, or if they do, perhaps only injure them modestly; ah sure, someone might get killed but that is a remote prospect that I am willing to take. Note to self: I am shooting the bullets away from myself, only endangering others, so what the heck.

No language barrier; I'm a yank like you.


We are not forbidden over here from any non-ESSENTIAL travel, and we are not forbidden from meeting people either, so long as groups are smaller than 100 people, so this does not apply to us. In Denmark, people returning from abroad are ADVISED, not required, to take a 14 day quarantine, and prudent people like myself and my friends are doing extensive if not total social isolation after the end of that period. Schools and restaurants are closed but all kinds of shops are open.



Just an hour ago, the Danish Prime Minister went on television to announce that the measures are achieving the result of flattening the curve, and that the borders would likely be re-opened after Easter -- great news for me.



In Sweden they've done almost nothing, borders are open, restaurants are open, and schools are open, and no one is advised to stay home, and cases are increasing in single digits, at the same rate as in other Nordic countries, and few people are dying, although the first case in Sweden was back in January just like Italy.



Perhaps the Danes are looking at the experience in Sweden.


So I don't think a fanatic approach to social isolation is an obviously correct or only way to deal with this epidemic. Meeting in small groups is allowed here, and by meeting only one other family, and possibly a yacht crew, I'm doing more than even what is advised.





The Danish PM on TV just now, showing Denmark on the green curve.


See: Denmark could gradually open up after Easter* - The Post

[CatNewBee]

Sweden does not have a very dense population, they are socially isolated in the country except in a few bigger cities.
Totaly different to Italy and Germany.

And they have a quite expensive social security system with large health care capacities in contrast to Germany. Even without Corona, the system in Germany was quite under pressure, if you needed an MRT or CT and you are not privately insured, you sometimes had to wait for months, doctors in the hospitals had already a very busy schedule.

Not so in the nordic countries, they have 1/5th to 1/10th of patients per doctor, so they can cope easier with the situation.

[Misbehaving]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The Danish PM on TV just now, showing Denmark on the green curve.


See: Denmark could gradually open up after Easter* - The Post

That's our Minister of Health, not our PM.


This is our PM:




And while I'm usually not her biggest fan, she's doing a really good job during all this chaos.


By the way, hello to everybody and take care.


Best regards.

[Montanan]

Meanwhile behind the scenes in Stockholm:

Hundreds of beds are lined up to be placed in rooms at an emergency field hospital under construction in the Stockholm International Fairs facility.

Although the Swedish government has now banned gatherings of more than 50 people, this excludes places like schools, restaurants and gyms which remain open. That’s despite the fact that 3,046 people have tested positive. Although Norway has the most confirmed cases (3,066) in Scandinavia, COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden are highest by far (92), compared with Norway (15) and Denmark (41).

[slug]

Originally Posted by Sojourner

I think Sweden is going to explode as it is already trending in that direction due to their lax attitude. I also think that once the peak happens, there will still be hundreds or thousands of cases daily for a long long time, just not on an upward trend...look at italy today. A few days of downward infection rates, which is hopeful, but you can see there will be thousands of cases daily (and then hundreds) for the foreseeable future. Even if it's a downward trend. Every marina or port you stop in will be exposed to dozens of cases daily at best, if they are open. You might be able to relax under those conditions, but I sure as shooting could not

Not just that, local people in any city will be suffering: supply chain shortages of food and staples, serious lack of money from being out of work, losing many friends or loved ones. Outsiders vacationing from even from the next town over (let alone the next country) using facilities and supplies to recreate might not be sensitive or welcome. Here in Greece, there is anger growing at foreigners already, and there are very very few cases yet. In South italy, people are basically looting grocery stores in places, because again, no money, no jobs.

I really do not see a viable sailing season this year at all, anywhere.

Sweden’s reaction to this virus is irresponsible

It won’t end well

As for cruising it’s hard to say how’s things work out

I suspect that frontiers will be difficult for the whole summer

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Meanwhile behind the scenes in Stockholm:

Hundreds of beds are lined up to be placed in rooms at an emergency field hospital under construction in the Stockholm International Fairs facility.

Although the Swedish government has now banned gatherings of more than 50 people, this excludes places like schools, restaurants and gyms which remain open. That’s despite the fact that 3,046 people have tested positive. Although Norway has the most confirmed cases (3,066) in Scandinavia, COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden are highest by far (92), compared with Norway (15) and Denmark (41).

92 fatalities! Compared to 1200 in New York City with a similar population, despite Sweden's having been in the epidemic for more than a month longer than New York.

Note also this:




https://datagraver.com/case/tracking...id-19-pandemic


Sweden has one of the lowest rates of increase of new cases despite extensive testing, and despite the fact that the epidemic started there rather early, before Germany or Spain, and long before the U.S.


Upthread I posted a photo of a warehouse with part of Finland's strategic reserves of emergency health care supplies including vast supplies of surgical masks. This high level of preparedness and the excellent health care systems in this part of the world are no doubt the main reasons why the governments can afford to use a lighter hand with isolation and lockdown, causing less economic and social harm. A shorter shutdown makes it more realistic for state support to prevent economic collapse.


Concerning Denmark -- I just spoke to a friend who is an ex-deputy minister and a biologist -- he said that there has been a breakthrough in manufacturing of tests, which will start to be produced in the millions, and the strategy will be to shift to massive testing and tracking, and "shielding" vulnerable people, while allowing the economy to get back to normal as quickly as possible.

[bil56]

in France, it is clear, navigation is prohibited, no one at sea, the yards are closed. Rescue at sea requires not to go out, maritime police checks.
Land travel should be kept to a minimum, people should stay at home as much as possible, except to go to work if teleworking is not possible, shopping and some other rights ...
The peak of the disease is not yet reached (1 or 2 weeks), confinement should probably last for the month of April.
How to gradually get out of this situation?
does the government know today? ...

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by slug

Sweden’s reaction to this virus is irresponsible

It won’t end well . . .

Based on . . . what? Are you an epidemiologist? What do you see in the numbers which others don't? Sweden has a far flatter curve of new infections than other countries with severe measures. Denmark is now moving towards a more Swedish approach (see the post above) with the end of most emergency measures promised for already a couple of weeks from now.



Not only is it not clear what measures are really necessary and work best to slow down the epidemic, but it is also different from country to country. The Nordic countries are thinly populated and have highly disciplined, healthy populations. The cities are extremely clean and are uncrowded. Nordic people have small family units and indeed more than half of Swedish households consist of only one person. There isn't any real poverty. What may be essential in New York with densely populated slums with huge numbers of poor, unhealthy people, or in Italy where you still have three generations living in one household, might not be needed at all in the Nordic countries.



So I think these categorical statements are out of place. The Swedes are not idiots.

[ColinIOM]

I don't know where your Swedish figures come from but as of today (30 March at 2230) there are 4058 infected and 146 deaths. Now I know these numbers are low but that is always how they start and if as you say, everything is still open, then these numbers are going to go up significantly as the days go by.

Norway has 4445 infected with 32 fatalities
Denmark has 2577 infected with 77 fatalities

So no one will be spared this, the bad news is the Nordic Countries are just a bit behind.
So its best to stay put just now and let this (hopefully) blow through.

As for the USA, with Trump in charge and not listening it doesn’t bode well with
159,710 infected and 2951 fatalities

Good luck to all
Colin

See the link to the facts below.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by ColinIOM

I don't know where your Swedish figures come from but as of today (30 March at 2230) there are 4058 infected and 146 deaths. Now I know these numbers are low but that is always how they start and if as you say, everything is still open, then these numbers are going to go up significantly as the days go by.

Norway has 4445 infected with 32 fatalities
Denmark has 2577 infected with 77 fatalities

So no one will be spared this, the bad news is the Nordic Countries are just a bit behind.
So its best to stay put just now and let this (hopefully) blow through.

As for the USA, with Trump in charge and not listening it doesn’t bode well with
159,710 infected and 2951 fatalities

Good luck to all
Colin

See the link to the facts below.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

What you're leaving out is how long the epidemic has been going on and what is the rate of increase of new cases. It started quite a long time ago in Sweden, so the rate of increase is quite moderate compared to other countries. As others have mentioned, there are different factors which influence this, but the most important takeaway is that even without any lockdown, the situation is not "exploding" and in fact is developing in a similar way to neighboring countries with lockdowns.


Cases will of course increase, and between now and the time a vaccine is produced and widely distributed, most human beings will get the disease. The whole point of what is happening now is to try to keep the rate of increase of new cases under control so that health systems can cope with the critically ill patients without the kind of horrifying triage which occurred in Italy.

[Dsanduril]

The most interesting graphic on the link Dockhead posted, in the sense of this thread, is this one:



Sweden lies right on the norm, including with regard to population density. Only their relatively tiny population is outside the norm.

The x-axis contains on a log scale the number of confirmed cases.
The y-axis the number of deaths.
The size of the circles is proportional to the size of the population.
The darkness of the circles relates to the population density, darker means more people per square kilometer.
The selected countries are either from the top 30 most populated countries or the countries with over 100 deaths from Covid-19.
The line roughly represents a Case Fatality rate of 2.6%.
Note on CFR: the real Case Fatality Rate can only be calculated after an epidemic is over. It should also take into account all mild cases that go undetected. So the CFR's you see here is now only based on the tested people. It might somewhere between 3 and 10 times higher than what will be reported after it's all over.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Based on . . . what? Are you an epidemiologist? What do you see in the numbers which others don't? Sweden has a far flatter curve of new infections than other countries with severe measures. Denmark is now moving towards a more Swedish approach (see the post above) with the end of most emergency measures promised for already a couple of weeks from now.



Not only is it not clear what measures are really necessary and work best to slow down the epidemic, but it is also different from country to country. The Nordic countries are thinly populated and have highly disciplined, healthy populations. The cities are extremely clean and are uncrowded. Nordic people have small family units and indeed more than half of Swedish households consist of only one person. There isn't any real poverty. What may be essential in New York with densely populated slums with huge numbers of poor, unhealthy people, or in Italy where you still have three generations living in one household, might not be needed at all in the Nordic countries.



So I think these categorical statements are out of place. The Swedes are not idiots.

Sweden population*is equivalent to 0.13% of the total world*population.*Sweden*ranks number 91 in the list of countries (and dependencies)*by population. The*population*density in*Sweden*is 25*per Km2*(64 people*per*mi2)

Italy population*is equivalent to 0.78% of the total world*population.*Italy*ranks number 23 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by*population. The*population*density in*Italy*is 206*per Km2*(532 people*per*mi2).

The*population*density of*Germany*in 2018 was 232.46 people*per*square kilometer,

New York*has the highest*population density*of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people*per*square mile

I guess, you may see the difference in those figures, and why the curves are different...

In italy live 10 times more people in the same area, similar to Germany, in New York almost 700 times more. It is simply more likely to get infected.