Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Sweden population*is equivalent to 0.13% of the total world*population.*Sweden*ranks number 91 in the list of countries (and dependencies)*by population. The*population*density in*Sweden*is 25*per Km2*(64 people*per*mi2)

Italy population*is equivalent to 0.78% of the total world*population.*Italy*ranks number 23 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by*population. The*population*density in*Italy*is 206*per Km2*(532 people*per*mi2).

The*population*density of*Germany*in 2018 was 232.46 people*per*square kilometer,

New York*has the highest*population density*of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people*per*square mile

I guess, you may see the difference in those figures, and why the curves are different...

In italy live 10 times more people in the same area, similar to Germany, in New York almost 700 times more. It is simply more likely to get infected.

Yes! And that is fundamental to my point.



Different countries are very different -- and in different ways. Population density is important. The presence of poverty is important. Quality of public health system is very important. So one size does NOT fit all, in terms of what measure are appropriate to controlling the epidemic.



This is addressed to the proposition posted here that the Swedes are "irresponsible" for not doing exactly the same kind of lockdown which is being done in New York City, which I think is ridiculous. As you so correctly pointed out -- Sweden and New York City are two completely different animals, even if the population is roughly the same!

[EarlGreen]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

In Sweden they've done almost nothing, borders are open, restaurants are open, and schools are open, and no one is advised to stay home, and cases are increasing in single digits, at the same rate as in other Nordic countries, and few people are dying, although the first case in Sweden was back in January just like Italy.

The borders are open, but only a very few pass them.

Restaurants are having restrictions. Many are closed anyway, since they have no customers. The ones still open have very few customers.

People are advised not to travel within the country. Restrictions may come.

People are advised to work from home if possible.

Theaters, clubs, churches etc. are closed.

People are advised to minimize social contacts.

Primary schools are still open. High schools and colleges/universities are closed.

Retirement homes do not allow any visitors at all.

Ski-resorts are closed.

Super-markets/grocery stores are getting additional restrictions.

etc.




However, most people here act very responsible - even without official restrictions.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by EarlGreen

The borders are open, but only a very few pass them.

Restaurants are having restrictions. Many are closed anyway, since they have no customers. The ones still open have very few customers.

People are advised not to travel within the country. Restrictions may come.

People are advised to work from home if possible.

Theaters, clubs, churches etc. are closed.

People are advised to minimize social contacts.

Primary schools are still open. High schools and colleges/universities are closed.

Retirement homes do not allow any visitors at all.

Ski-resorts are closed.

Super-markets/grocery stores are getting additional restrictions.

etc.


However, most people here act very responsible - even without official restrictions.

Ahh, but Earl, you forgot to include in your list the all important factor regarding the pandemic that is whether there is a shortage of toilet paper in Sweden, or not. Presumably if there was an abundance of TP and a shortage in Norway and Finland there would be a lot more cross border movement to shop for supplies.

[GBR134]

Easy decision for me to be virtuous - the boat is in Morocco and there it will stay until the boarders in Morocco & Spain are fully open and commercial flights have started again!

[captnandy]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes! And that is fundamental to my point.



Different countries are very different -- and in different ways. Population density is important. The presence of poverty is important. Quality of public health system is very important. So one size does NOT fit all, in terms of what measure are appropriate to controlling the epidemic.



This is addressed to the proposition posted here that the Swedes are "irresponsible" for not doing exactly the same kind of lockdown which is being done in New York City, which I think is ridiculous. As you so correctly pointed out -- Sweden and New York City are two completely different animals, even if the population is roughly the same!

It is reported this afternoon that in Sweden 51 people died from coronavirus in last 24 hours, with 600 new infections detected. In Finland there are 20 deaths in total. It seems that the Swedish strategy was risky, of course no one can know the "totals" until this is all over. But looking from here in Finland, I think Finns are pretty happy with how our government is handling this, even if it means a lot of restrictions. The reason for sealing off Uusimaa is to slow the spread of infection to the poorer countryside regions - where there are far higher percentages of older people, and far less well equipped hospitals.

Police and border guards are "strongly encouraging" people NOT to go boating yet. A lot of discussion on facebook groups as to whether this is to be taken seriously or not, but, from my point of view, I don't normally get our boat in the water until late May or early June, so no rush yet!

[GBR134]

Originally Posted by Montanan

While the UK has Brexited the EU, it presently remains in a transition period until the end of this year. During the transition period it is my understanding that the EU's VAT rules and status remains as it was. The final rules for UK / EU relations has yet to be negotiated so it is anyone's guess what happens at the end of the transition period.

The boat [like any other tangible object] customs and VAT status will likely depend on its situs at a specific date in time upon the end of the transition. If the "thing" is located in the EU it likely will retain EU customs and VAT status; if it is located elsewhere then it would likely derive status as to the jurisdiction it was located. Moving across a customs and joint tax jurisdictions implies importation / exportation and all that consequences thereof, nothing unique about a boat with regards to importation or temporary importation. It is merely another taxable good, it and it accessories / tender, etc.

Sorry if this is getting boring but I can’t find any definitive answer whether the VAT transition date will be the date (past) that the UK left or the date (future) that the transition period ends. Do you actually know or are you just maki g an informed guess please?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by EarlGreen

. . . However, most people here act very responsible - even without official restrictions.

One big difference between Nordic countries and most others.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by captnandy

It is reported this afternoon that in Sweden 51 people died from coronavirus in last 24 hours, with 600 new infections detected. In Finland there are 20 deaths in total. It seems that the Swedish strategy was risky, of course no one can know the "totals" until this is all over. But looking from here in Finland, I think Finns are pretty happy with how our government is handling this, even if it means a lot of restrictions. The reason for sealing off Uusimaa is to slow the spread of infection to the poorer countryside regions - where there are far higher percentages of older people, and far less well equipped hospitals.

Police and border guards are "strongly encouraging" people NOT to go boating yet. A lot of discussion on facebook groups as to whether this is to be taken seriously or not, but, from my point of view, I don't normally get our boat in the water until late May or early June, so no rush yet!

Finland is doing great so far. Yesterday just 1.5% new cases, and the rate of increase has been in single digits for more than a week. If the rate of new cases can be kept at an average of say 7%, then Finland is going to be fine. That would indicate 3 doublings per month, so well within capacity of the health system if it goes on like that even for a couple more months. I am hoping the border will be reopened pretty soon so I can sail my boat to Helsinki, as Finland will probably be a good place to be cruising this summer.


It should be noted that the restrictions in Finland are very moderate compared to many places. Bars and restaurants have only just been closed. And there is no general requirement to stay home. I am hearing frightening things from friends in Poland, who are not allowed to leave their homes except one at a time for groceries, are not allowed to meet anyone outside their households, and are not even allowed to go to parks. Here in Denmark the shops are all open, not just groceries and drug stores, and people are allowed to gather in groups of less than 10 (although people mostly don't do that).

Sweden is having quite a bit more deaths and a higher rate of new cases than Finland, but still pretty moderate and not looking unsustainable. No exponential growth like in the U.S.

Denmark also looking pretty good with single digit increases and now planning to start relaxing the restrictions after Easter.

I am feeling pretty good about being in the Nordic region during this plague.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by GBR134

Sorry if this is getting boring but I can’t find any definitive answer whether the VAT transition date will be the date (past) that the UK left or the date (future) that the transition period ends. Do you actually know or are you just making an informed guess please?

Presently business as usual, as to the end of the transition period well then that is a clear as mud. Note it is becoming ever more likely that the transition date will be extended because the COVID-19 outbreak has slowed the negotiations.

A reference of which there are many:

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-...y-developments

The U.K. is now in a transition period while negotiations take place to decide its future trade relationship with the EU. Robert Marchant of Crowe looks at what changes may be expected to the value-added tax regime and to customs duty rules, both in the transition period and beyond.

Following the official departure of the U.K. from the EU on January 31, 2020, the U.K. is now in a period of transition. Negotiations are taking place to decide what form the U.K.’s relationship with the EU will take, in particular with regard to trading arrangements, including both value-added tax (VAT) and customs duty.

Under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, the U.K. will remain within the single market, EU VAT regime and EU Customs Union until December 31, 2020. U.K. organizations will welcome the fact that, for the remainder of this year, they have certainty as to the VAT and customs duty treatment of their activities, although clearly there remains significant uncertainty about what happens beyond 2020.

The U.K. and EU will soon enter into negotiation of a trade agreement to take effect from January 1, 2021. Many commentators have questioned whether a trade deal can be agreed in this time, so it remains unclear whether there could be an extension to the period of transition agreed in the Withdrawal Agreement. While, at one time, there was provision in the agreement for an extension, it remains to be seen whether there is political will for this.

In the event that a trade agreement is not concluded by December 31, 2020, and no extension is agreed, the U.K. would exit the EU on a “no deal” basis.

“No Deal” Brexit Reminder

Should the U.K. leave the EU on a “no deal” basis, then the U.K. will exit the EU Customs Union and EU VAT system, and businesses trading in goods (as opposed to services) can probably expect the major impact. The EU Customs Union removes import tariffs on goods moving between its members, and there is currently no need for import or export declarations on physical movements between member countries. If the U.K. exits the EU Customs Union, then all goods moving between the U.K. and EU would require declarations (giving rise to increased administrative costs) and would potentially be subject to import taxes on import.

During 2019, the U.K. government issued a considerable amount of material about its “no deal” plans. This included the introduction of postponed import VAT accounting to ease the cash flow cost of the current import process, whereby import VAT is paid at the time of the goods entering the U.K., with a refund of the import VAT being given several months later. There will also be a temporary period of 12 months where 87% of imports into the U.K. (i.e. goods coming to the U.K. from another country) will be tariff (but not import VAT) free. A note of caution though, is that the EU has not said it will do the same.

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) also embarked on a program of automatically issuing Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) numbers and auto-enrolling businesses for Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP): measures which are designed to help businesses trade with the EU after a “no deal” Brexit.

Expected VAT Changes after January 1, 2021
While some areas of the U.K.’s future VAT and customs duty rules may not be fully known until the U.K./EU trade negotiations are complete, organizations can expect a number of changes to the U.K. VAT regime.

EU VAT Directive: the starting point is that the U.K. will no longer have to apply the EU VAT Directive, meaning that the U.K. VAT Act will be the sole source of U.K. VAT law. Initially, we do not expect any significant changes from the terms of the EU VAT Directive, but there is likely to be a deviation over time. For example, the U.K. will not be subject to the restrictions in the EU VAT Directive about what goods and services qualify for reduced rates and exemptions.
Movement of goods: as noted above, all movements of goods to/from the U.K. will be imports and exports as the EU becomes a third country to the U.K.
EU VAT Distance Selling thresholds: a concern for sellers of goods from the U.K. to consumers in the EU is the likely loss of the EU VAT Distance Selling thresholds. This can allow businesses not to have to VAT register in multiple EU countries, where their sales to customers in that country are below a compulsory VAT registration threshold. The same is likely to apply to EU businesses selling to U.K. consumers, in that after January 1, 2021, goods will need to be imported into the local country, which will require the supplier to U.K. VAT register.
Intrastat and EC Sales List: it remains to be seen whether the Intrastat and EC Sales List regimes will continue, given they are focused on EU trade.
Use and Enjoyment rules: for suppliers of services, such as telecommunications services, broadcasting services, electronically supplied services (for business customers), hired goods and hired means of transport, there is likely to be a need to consider the Use and Enjoyment rules in more situations.
Digital Services: once the U.K. has left the EU after its transition period ends, all supplies of digital services to consumers in EU member states will become liable for VAT in the consumer’s member state. U.K. businesses will no longer be able to benefit from the existing annual threshold of 10,000 euros ($10,979) for cross-border sales of digital services to EU consumers. For U.K. sellers of digital services to EU consumers, the U.K. will no longer be a member of the EU Mini One Stop Shop (MOSS). Any non-EU business which used the U.K. MOSS registration will have to re-register for MOSS in the EU and separately in the U.K. under a regular VAT return.
Reclaiming EU VAT: there are are also likely to be changes for businesses providing financial services and there are initial signs that they may benefit from increased VAT recovery. There will be changes to the way in which U.K. businesses reclaim EU VAT in countries where they are not required to be VAT registered. U.K. tour operators could lose access to the Tour Operator Margin Scheme (TOMS), which may result in them having to VAT register in every country in which they operate. A “no deal” Brexit could mean that the simplification is no longer available— increasing the VAT compliance obligations for businesses that currently benefit from the TOMS rules.
Appointment of a fiscal representative: any U.K. businesses that are registered for VAT in an EU member state in which they are not resident may have to appoint a fiscal representative. This will increase compliance costs as the fiscal representative will charge for its services and will also require a bank guarantee to be provided, given the fiscal representative is jointly liable for any VAT debts. To date, there appears to be inconsistency in the EU member states as to whether or not this is required, and so the position in each country should be reviewed.
Finally, there is specific provision in the Withdrawal Agreement for what will happen in relation to trade to/from Northern Ireland. In the event of a “no deal,” Northern Ireland will remain in the U.K. VAT area, but in full alignment with EU VAT laws. It will also remain part of the U.K.’s customs territory, meaning that if the U.K. signs an international trade agreement with another country, its terms would also apply to Northern Ireland. For Northern Ireland to Republic of Ireland trade, the EU Customs Union rules apply, and there would be no tariffs or restrictions.

Goods moving directly from Great Britain to Northern Ireland would not be subject to a tariff unless the goods are “at risk” of being moved into the EU afterwards. Likewise, goods from third countries entering Northern Ireland will be subject to the U.K. tariff, unless they are at risk of being moved to the EU.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Finland is doing great so far. Yesterday just 1.5% new cases, and the rate of increase has been in single digits for more than a week. If the rate of new cases can be kept at an average of say 7%, then Finland is going to be fine. That would indicate 3 doublings per month, so well within capacity of the health system if it goes on like that even for a couple more months. I am hoping the border will be reopened pretty soon so I can sail my boat to Helsinki, as Finland will probably be a good place to be cruising this summer.


It should be noted that the restrictions in Finland are very moderate compared to many places. Bars and restaurants have only just been closed. And there is no general requirement to stay home. I am hearing frightening things from friends in Poland, who are not allowed to leave their homes except one at a time for groceries, are not allowed to meet anyone outside their households, and are not even allowed to go to parks.


Sweden is having quite a bit more deaths and a higher rate of new cases than Finland, but still pretty moderate and not looking unsustainable. No exponential growth like in the U.S.

Reference: https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

Denmark also looking pretty good with single digit increases and now planning to start relaxing the restrictions after Easter.

I am feeling pretty good about being in the Nordic region during this plague.

See above. Climbing the curve.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

See above. Climbing the curve.

Very different trajectory compared to the U.S. The last week in both countries:





Sweden





U.S.


U.S. is 2.4x in a week which is 1100x (!) in 8 weeks. Sweden is 1.76x in a week which is 92x over 8 weeks. That is a massive, massive difference -- illustrating the awesome power of exponents. Project that out 8 weeks and we get 55,900 cumulative cases in Sweden (well within the capacity of Sweden's health care system) and 265 million (!!!) cases in the U.S.


That is precisely why the Swedes are so calm and why Americans are so freaked out. These numbers will move around of course, but the U.S. is already in an explosive pandemic, while Sweden, with 6,078 active cases, increasing at a moderate rate, is not. Even though the infections started a good month earlier in Sweden, than in the U.S.!


In Finland, the numbers are trivial -- 1.34x in the last week. Projected out 8 weeks, that's only 10.4x, which would indicate only cumulative 17,000 cases reached in 8 more weeks.






Finland

[theoleduc]

Our boat is still in the winterhall in Antwerp and launching is not allowed. Our plan was to start our Nordic trip yesterday (Malaren / Stockholm and Gulf of Bot.). This is a pandemic and we should all act responsible... stay put! Until travel is safe. I certainly do not like it as we are mini-liveaboards during 6 months/yr. Together we 'll beat the "beast".

[Montanan]

April 9th:

Sweden: COVID-19 cases 9,141, deaths 870

compare to the State of California which locked down early and which has four times the population of Sweden.

California: COVID-19 cases 18,309, deaths 492


April 6th:

Swedish P.M. Tells Country to Prepare for ‘Thousands’ of Deaths as Pressure Builds to Abandon Lax Coronavirus Response

Sweden’s Prime Minister Stefan Lofven warned in an interview published over the weekend that the country could face “thousands” of coronavirus deaths, after the country’s minimal lockdown efforts have left grade schools, bars, restaurants, and parks open amid the pandemic.

On Sunday, Sweden reported a total of 401 deaths so far from Covid-19, up 8 percent from Saturday and greater than the totals recorded in its three Nordic neighbors combined — all of which have stricter lockdowns in place. Sweden’s death toll per million inhabitants is 37, compared with 28 in Denmark, 12 in Norway, and 4.5 in Finland.

New legislation is expected this week to introduce new emergency steps, such as shutting airports or train and bus stations, closing shops and restaurants, further limiting public gatherings from the current protocol of no gatherings over 50 people, or appropriating medical equipment, according to state broadcaster SVT.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, has argued that Sweden is angling for “a slow spread of infection and that the health services are not overwhelmed,” in order to gradually allow the population to acquire immunity.

Amid growing cases among the elderly — despite bans on visits to retirement homes — Tegnell denied that, as the head of the campaign against the virus, he bore any personal responsibility.

“No, many people work on these issues. We all have a collective responsibility in society to protect the elderly,” he told newspaper Aftonbladet, adding that the situation was “very serious.”

Lofven has so far sought to play down the role of government in shaping Sweden’s response.

“We will never be able to legislate everything, we will never be able to ban all harmful actions,” the prime minister said last week. “We all as individuals must take our responsibility.”

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

April 9th:

Sweden: COVID-19 cases 9,141, deaths 870

compare to the State of California which locked down early and which has four times the population of Sweden.

California: COVID-19 cases 18,309, deaths 492


April 6th:

Swedish P.M. Tells Country to Prepare for ‘Thousands’ of Deaths as Pressure Builds to Abandon Lax Coronavirus Response

Sweden’s Prime Minister Stefan Lofven warned in an interview published over the weekend that the country could face “thousands” of coronavirus deaths, after the country’s minimal lockdown efforts have left grade schools, bars, restaurants, and parks open amid the pandemic.

On Sunday, Sweden reported a total of 401 deaths so far from Covid-19, up 8 percent from Saturday and greater than the totals recorded in its three Nordic neighbors combined — all of which have stricter lockdowns in place. Sweden’s death toll per million inhabitants is 37, compared with 28 in Denmark, 12 in Norway, and 4.5 in Finland.

New legislation is expected this week to introduce new emergency steps, such as shutting airports or train and bus stations, closing shops and restaurants, further limiting public gatherings from the current protocol of no gatherings over 50 people, or appropriating medical equipment, according to state broadcaster SVT.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, has argued that Sweden is angling for “a slow spread of infection and that the health services are not overwhelmed,” in order to gradually allow the population to acquire immunity.

Amid growing cases among the elderly — despite bans on visits to retirement homes — Tegnell denied that, as the head of the campaign against the virus, he bore any personal responsibility.

“No, many people work on these issues. We all have a collective responsibility in society to protect the elderly,” he told newspaper Aftonbladet, adding that the situation was “very serious.”

Lofven has so far sought to play down the role of government in shaping Sweden’s response.

“We will never be able to legislate everything, we will never be able to ban all harmful actions,” the prime minister said last week. “We all as individuals must take our responsibility.”

There is controversy in Sweden as there is everywhere. There are plenty of commentators in California who complain that the lockdown is excessive and catastrophically destructive, if not actually counterproductive. No one can know at this point who is right.



But the comparison to California is not informative, because Sweden got the virus more than a month earlier and is in a much later stage. California is doubling cases every 4 1/2 days; Sweden is doubling on a 10 day cycle -- a huge difference. California is on a sharp part of the curve; Sweden's curve is sustainably flat -- so far anyway.



Better to compare Sweden with other European countries. Sweden has only 959 cases per million population, compared to 1005 in Denmark, 1,434 in Germany, 1,913 in France, and 3,349 in Spain. Sweden has had 86 deaths per million population compared to 132 in the UK, 202 in France, and 3,359 in Spain. 86 deaths per million is a lot more than 43 per million in Denmark, but just comparing Sweden and Denmark distorts the picture, as both Sweden and Denmark are among the very least affected European countries. And Denmark's "lockdown" is so lenient that the policy there is much closer to Sweden's, than to the tight lockdowns in the UK, France, and Spain. You can hardly call Denmark locked down at all; people are sailing, RV-ing, going to restaurants (just can't sit inside), visiting friends (gatherings of less than 50 people are OK), going to the beach.



Other Nordic countries are moving closer to Sweden's policy, not vice versa. Denmark opens schools next week and will open borders 11 May. Finland will reopen borders and restaurants and eliminate most restrictions during the first half of May. Neither Denmark nor Finland ever had any stay at home or shelter in place order.



I realize it bothers some people that some countries are subjecting themselves to less pain than we are, and just can't accept that they might get away with it. I think it's too early to tell for sure what anyone of us anywhere is going to "get away with", but the Nordic countries, including Sweden, are exceptionally well governed societies with exceptionally good public health, I would not be so quick to assume that they don't know what they are doing.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Very different trajectory compared to the U.S. The last week in both countries:

That is precisely why the Swedes are so calm and why Americans are so freaked out. These numbers will move around of course, but the U.S. is already in an explosive pandemic, while Sweden, with 6,078 active cases, increasing at a moderate rate, is not. Even though the infections started a good month earlier in Sweden, than in the U.S.!

The U.S. is like a collection of countries. Most of the cases in the U.S. are in New York City!

So you can tamp down on some of the negative generalizations about the COVID19 U.S. relative to other places. They're unfounded and misleading, at best.

If you're going to make a comparison, compare apples to apples. Rather difficult to do, even by experts. By non-experts, almost impossible.

Any region has it's own challenges, it's own history, and it's own trajectory with this virus.

You seem to have captured some of this in your latest post. Your earlier post, not so much. Selectively and imprecisely using statistics is a dark art.