Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

This is for GoBoatingNow, and concerns Ireland.


OurWorldInData came out with a very interesting compilation of data on death rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated, very well worth a read: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination. Yesterday we looked at the German statistics. Here is the U.S. from OWID:





If you go to the article, the table is interactive, and you can play with different age groups and time periods.


What is really interesting here is the scale. Now we can compare this to the death rates we've been watching all these months.


And notice that the rate for this wave peaks at 18 per million per day -- for the unvaccinated. For the vaccinated (all vaccines), it's 1.22.


I think now we can see why Ireland, with a high vaccination rate, can have death rates not much exceeding 2, despite infection rates which broke 1000 recently. If you were to take the U.S. death rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated, and change the proportions to reflect the Irish vaccination rate, you would end up with a blended rate just about where Ireland is now.


This ignores the effect of natural immunity, but we are in the ballpark.


We now know, contrary to what was believed earlier, that you can still have a big outbreak even with an 80% vaccination rate. This is rather horrifying and unexpected. But if the death rate never exceeds 2 or 3, then this does really start to look more like a bad flu season, than a demographically catastrophic pandemic. Vaccination is the key, and we start to understand why the Germans are moving to simply require it. My guess is that Austria and Germany will not be the last European countries to introduce general vaccination mandates (not just as conditions to employment).

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

We now know, contrary to what was believed earlier, that you can still have a big outbreak even with an 80% vaccination rate. This is rather horrifying and unexpected. But if the death rate never exceeds 2 or 3, then this does really start to look more like a bad flu season, than a demographically catastrophic pandemic. Vaccination is the key, and we start to understand why the Germans are moving to simply require it. My guess is that Austria and Germany will not be the last European countries to introduce general vaccination mandates (not just as conditions to employment).

Yes, the pattern supporting vaccination mandates is becoming universal and it should play out over the coming months worldwide, in various forms of blowback.

It sounds obvious but has there been any conclusions made over the correlation between population density per area and localized outbreaks, that would indicate chronic problems in social distancing and prevention ?

I think utilizing some kind of viral transmission inhibiter via a fogging system for crowded locations would become a useful infrastructure tool for preventing outbreaks, if proven to work.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by rotrax

Pray give a link for this.


It is certainly not my reading of the situation. No political capital has been made by any Government or serious media source.


Of course, some do place social media higher than other sources of information.



The point I made re some sources suggesting the AZ Vaccine was inferior appears to be biting them in the bum. Those protected with AZ appear to fare better than those protected by some other Vaccines.


Comparing a state of almost 70 millions to other smaller States in regard to Vaccine roll out gives a false picture.


Little censure from the man in the street here in the UK about the handling of the Covid situation.


No riots and cars on fire.........................

The U.K. was within the transition withdrawal period when it approved AZ. This was done under EU rules which allows any country the ability to allow any drug into its internal market under emergency approval rules. This was always the case in the EU and could have been done by any EU country ( Germany came close to doing so )

Secondly there is no evidence that AZ is better or worse then mRNA vaccines. Both have waned after 6 months which is why I’m getting a booster after my AZ shot in Ireland.

I merely point out that several Eu countries actually largely finished their vaccine program coincident with or ahead of the U.K. the U.K. got a first doze in arms initially quickly but the then ran out of steam

By the way there’s it’s rioting everywhere so that’s not an real point

I’m just pointing out the anti EU vaccine nonsense largely was false propaganda used in the U.K. to continue the anti EU sentiment that has been circulating in the U.K. for 30 , largely lies and falsehoods

There were no vaccines shortages in the EU at the end of the day. and countries were held back by either apathy or mis information or both rather then supply chain issues.

What I was saying is I don’t think the vaccine position is responsible for where the U.K. is now. It paid a very very high price in deaths for its strategy a strategy that would not be regarded as acceptable elsewhere.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The U.K. was within the transition withdrawal period when it approved AZ. This was done under EU rules which allows any country the ability to allow any drug into its internal market under emergency approval rules. This was always the case in the EU and could have been done by any EU country ( Germany came close to doing so )

Secondly there is no evidence that AZ is better or worse then mRNA vaccines. Both have waned after 6 months which is why I’m getting a booster after my AZ shot in Ireland.

I merely point out that several Eu countries actually largely finished their vaccine program coincident with or ahead of the U.K. the U.K. got a first doze in arms initially quickly but the then ran out of steam

By the way there’s it’s rioting everywhere so that’s not an real point

I’m just pointing out the anti EU vaccine nonsense largely was false propaganda used in the U.K. to continue the anti EU sentiment that has been circulating in the U.K. for 30 , largely lies and falsehoods

There were no vaccines shortages in the EU at the end of the day. and countries were held back by either apathy or mis information or both rather then supply chain issues.

What I was saying is I don’t think the vaccine position is responsible for where the U.K. is now. It paid a very very high price in deaths for its strategy a strategy that would not be regarded as acceptable elsewhere.

First of all, concerning Astra Zeneca. Wasn't the poster talking about the kerfuffle about safety concerns with AZ, for the extremely rare blood clots? Several EU countries, including Denmark and Sweden, withdrew AZ for some time, following the "precautionary principle", not wanting to take even the vanishingly tiny risk. The UK did not do this.

This was, in my view, an amazingly idiotic move on the part of Denmark, Sweden, and some other European countries, which delayed the start of the vaccination programs in those countries, and one reason why the UK got a head start with vaccination. How many people were killed in those countries because they didn't get vaccinated sooner?

Second: You are criticizing the UK strategy as "unacceptable elsewhere". What did they do wrong? I know that Boris waffled and said a lot of stupid things at the beginning, but by 23 March 2020 the UK had the most stringent measures in Europe in place, Stringency Index 80. That's like, one week later than Finland, whose pandemic response is widely considered to have been exemplary, and actually faster than Ireland, whose Stringency Index was only 43 on the same date. Besides that, the UK did the best job in all of Europe in getting vaccination going on a mass scale early.

In terms of either excess mortality or cumulative covid deaths, the UK is just about in the middle of the range of European outcomes, and much better than the U.S.

Surely could have been better, but every country without exception made mistakes, so the UK situation doesn't seem so awful to me -- what am I missing? From where I sit, it looks to me like the UK (a) was late in getting measures implemented; then (b) way overreacted and used unnecessarily strict measures which caused a lot of collateral damage; but (c) did a great job with vaccination. And for all that, got a quite average, maybe even slightly better average outcome in terms of death. That's different from what you seem to be thinking, so I'm curious to understand better.

[goboatingnow]

I’m not criticising the U.K. per se, it did a reasonable job especially Scotland and Northern Ireland administrations.

I was merely commenting that high vaccine rates don’t necessarily explain what’s happening between countries.

As I pointed out some EU countries got of to a slow start but in a two jab vaccine it’s the end point that matters. The U.K. only ended up similar to many other EU countries.

Denmark refused AZ largely because it had enough mRNA. Most Eu countries limited it to 60 -70.

And there is no real difference between the primary vaccines

“COVID-19: 'No substantial difference' in protection offered by Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines, study suggests”

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I’m not criticising the U.K. per se, it did a reasonable job especially Scotland and Northern Ireland administrations.

I was merely commenting that high vaccine rates don’t necessarily explain what’s happening between countries.

As I pointed out some EU countries got of to a slow start but in a two jab vaccine it’s the end point that matters. The U.K. only ended up similar to many other EU countries.

Yes, of course, vaccination rates are not the whole story. Natural immunity is another big part of the story.


The German health minister recently said -- by next spring, everyone will either be vaccinated, recovered, or dead. It means, that sooner or later everyone will get it. It means -- pandemic measures by themselves only slow down the progress of the pandemic. Immunity, whether acquired or natural, is the only thing which actually stops it.


Those countries which can't get over say 80% vaccinated, are going to end up all having similar cumulative death rates in the end, because the virus will keep rippping through until there's no one left to infect. I think that's one reason why the UK ended up with average death rates although it was really bad at the beginning. Even Italy by now doesn't look all that horrible, as it did back in Spring of 2020, as other countries once after another have passed Italy. Only those very few countries, like Australia, and possibly, Finland, who are able to get up to really high vaccination rates before they ever have the first really bad wave of infection, will be able to avoid this. Denmark and Norway have done well but not without significant waves of infection. The whole rest of Europe with few exceptions had their own really bad patches either at this time or the other; without high vaccination rates the pandemic measures only delayed this outcome (one reason cited in countries with moderate pandemic responses, for not doing it more strictly).



I think it becomes more and more clear that we simply have to get everyone vaccinated, or this will never stop. It's going to be very bad still in countries with a significant amount of vaccine hesitancy. I think that's what's keeping the Germans awake at night these days. What this winter will be like in Eastern Europe hardly bears thinking about.

[Dockhead]

The drama going on right now in Germany is distracting me from my work.

Merckel is having an emergency summit with the "traffic light coalition".

An excellent article in FAZ about social polarization and vaccine scepticism: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/...-17648753.html Non-German speakers can open this article in Chrome and have it machine translated into English or whatever language.


A poll too small and unscientific to mean too much, but FAZ readers are voting more than 2:1 in favor of a general vaccination mandate:





"Do We Need A General Vaccination Mandate?"

[rotrax]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The U.K. was within the transition withdrawal period when it approved AZ. This was done under EU rules which allows any country the ability to allow any drug into its internal market under emergency approval rules. This was always the case in the EU and could have been done by any EU country ( Germany came close to doing so )

Secondly there is no evidence that AZ is better or worse then mRNA vaccines. Both have waned after 6 months which is why I’m getting a booster after my AZ shot in Ireland.

I merely point out that several Eu countries actually largely finished their vaccine program coincident with or ahead of the U.K. the U.K. got a first doze in arms initially quickly but the then ran out of steam

By the way there’s it’s rioting everywhere so that’s not an real point

I’m just pointing out the anti EU vaccine nonsense largely was false propaganda used in the U.K. to continue the anti EU sentiment that has been circulating in the U.K. for 30 , largely lies and falsehoods

There were no vaccines shortages in the EU at the end of the day. and countries were held back by either apathy or mis information or both rather then supply chain issues.

What I was saying is I don’t think the vaccine position is responsible for where the U.K. is now. It paid a very very high price in deaths for its strategy a strategy that would not be regarded as acceptable elsewhere.

You are wrong on SO many points.


Few European States have got 15 million booster jabs into the arms of their most vunerable citizens. The UK has.


A new study, after the reasonable time AZ has been in arms, shows that it is really keeping those vaccinated with more antibodies than some other vaccines. Look it up, easy to find.



Your point re EU approval is not relevant, and you know it.


Our task force got going early because we did not join the EU Vaccine strategy.


Our guy's put orders in for as many minus 80 degree freezers as they could get, knowing they would be in demand and would be essential for storing some vaccines - Phizer, for example.


The EU did not. They were late to the party.


Dont give me this guff about 'no vaccine shortages in the EU'. I have close friends in the Czech Republic - I can never get used to Czechia - and they told me how difficult getting the first jab was, and how their small country was very short of vaccine. Ditto Slovakia.



The UK did not 'run out of steam' it ran out of vaccine and so jabs in arms slowed down.


You have your take on it, I have mine. We shall agree to disagree.


Anti lockdown riots and burning cars are not everywhere are they? None in the UK so far.


I am sceptical re death numbers reported also. If someone is killed in a traffic accident but has had a positive civid test within 28 days of death in the UK, that is counted as a covid death.


Clearly this will cause duff data if true covid death is counted.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by rotrax

. . . I am sceptical re death numbers reported also. If someone is killed in a traffic accident but has had a positive civid test within 28 days of death in the UK, that is counted as a covid death.. . .

The way covid deaths are counted has been substantially harmonized between developed countries after WHO issued a set of draft standards about a year ago.

However, even this has not made the statistics totally comparable with each other.

That is why most serious students of the pandemic use demographic excess death, rather than cumulative covid deaths, to compare different country's outcomes. There are a bunch of reasons for this and you can read about it if you like. There's an article on it in Ourworldindata.org, for example.

UK excess mortality -- about 1851 per million -- lines up roughly with the official covid deaths (2120 per million). Other countries don't, some outlandishly so, like Russia with nearly 6000 excess deaths per million (!) compared to 1000 or so official covid deaths.

You can get all this data on Ourworldindata.org, but there are also excellent resources in FT and the Economist. Official European data on excess mortality is in Euromomo.

[rotrax]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The way covid deaths are counted has been substantially harmonized between developed countries after WHO issued a set of draft standards about a year ago.

However, even this has not made the statistics totally comparable with each other.

That is why most serious students of the pandemic use demographic excess death, rather than cumulative covid deaths, to compare different country's outcomes. There are a bunch of reasons for this and you can read about it if you like. There's an article on it in Ourworldindata.org, for example.

UK excess mortality -- about 1851 per million -- lines up roughly with the official covid deaths (2120 per million). Other countries don't, some outlandishly so, like Russia with nearly 6000 excess deaths per million (!) compared to 1000 or so official covid deaths.

You can get all this data on Ourworldindata.org, but there are also excellent resources in FT and the Economist. Official European data on excess mortality is in Euromomo.

Thanks for that, I was aware of the excess death scenario giving far more accurate data.


We have daily figures issued by our Government to the media. Our Government website is excellent. It is possible to go deep and get data for small areas.


The leader of the Labour opposition asked several searching questions of the PM in the House of Commons recently, questions that appeared to be difficult to respond to.


BJ refered him to the Government Covid website, suggesting better use could have been made of Parliamentary time had he done this first. All the answers were there.


I knew several older relations who remembered the 1919-21 Spanish flu.


That, apparently, naturally evolved into the Influenza we live with now.


Will Covid do the same?

[Baronkrak]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

The stupidity of people don't fail to amaze me again. Self inflicted wounds I'd say. Get the freaking vaccine so we don't need any passes or restricitions when all are vaccinated..

Good ploy but ludicrous.

[Baronkrak]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

An excellent article in FAZ about social polarization and vaccine scepticism: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/...-17648753.html Non-German speakers can open this article in Chrome and have it machine translated into English or whatever language.

Non-French readers can do the same.

https://www.20min.ch/fr/story/plus-d...s-666928625394

https://www.20min.ch/fr/story/la-con...s-544336573480

https://www.20min.ch/fr/comment/620073506930

[Anders]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Secondly there is no evidence that AZ is better or worse then mRNA vaccines. Both have waned after 6 months which is why I’m getting a booster after my AZ shot in Ireland.

The UK government data shows that the Pfizer vaccine is a lot better than the AZ vaccine. Have a look at figure 3 and 4.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...rt-week-46.pdf

[rotrax]

Originally Posted by Anders

The UK government data shows that the Pfizer vaccine is a lot better than the AZ vaccine. Have a look at figure 3 and 4.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...rt-week-46.pdf

Latest data heavily suggests residual protection from AZ is far stronger - data just released in the last day or so.


The data you highlight is older, before the longer term benifits of AZ were known.


This is perhaps why the UK is in a better position than some other States as AZ is the vaccine that was most widely used here.


By the way, its not a pissing contest, is it?


I am not trying to score points here.

[Anders]

Originally Posted by rotrax

Latest data heavily suggests residual protection from AZ is far stronger - data just released in the last day or so.


The data you highlight is older, before the longer term benifits of AZ were known.


This is perhaps why the UK is in a better position than some other States as AZ is the vaccine that was most widely used here.


By the way, its not a pissing contest, is it?


I am not trying to score points here.

The data is from last week. I've seen the interview with the CEO of AZ recently but all the data I've ever seen shows Pfizer to be better than AZ .