Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[laird]

The current high transmission rates are originating from children at school , I have spoken to a lot of people in the NHS and the main conduit for people catching the virus is children at school ,everyone that I know who has contracted covid has said the same line , " one of the kids picked it up at school ,

The adults have mostly.been double vaxed and have experienced little or no symptoms

I also had an upset daughter in the phone today to tell me that my 8 month old granddaughter has contracted covid from nursery , I can read the stats like any other person but when it comes home ,all of the rational thinking cannot dilute a parents fears

[Dockhead]

Interesting editorial in FAZ: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/...ition-17650501


The leader of Germany's liberal party, FDP, has come out in favor of a general vaccination mandate on interesting grounds -- it's the only way to avoid other infringements of fundamental rights. The pandemic restrictions disrupt life and actually infringe fundamental rights. When we are balancing the different infringements and costs -- the right to indulge an irrational fear of vaccination can be seen in a different perspective.


See: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/...-17650501.html

[Baronkrak]

Originally Posted by rotrax

Will Covid do the same?

Originally Posted by Baronkrak

I do not think so
Until we discover a vaccine that really immunise against Covid the population of the world needs to decrease to 4 billions for Covid to disappear by social distancing like the Spanish flu did. Or achieve a population density of 92 per Km2 and distance accordingly.
Gubernya population: 1918 3 800 000 area: 41 300 death 65 000

My father was 10 at that time.

[Baronkrak]

Originally Posted by laird

The current high transmission rates are originating from children at school ....

In other places it is the provaccers that are blamed for the spread. They are free to roam without a mask and do not respect social distancing.

[Dockhead]

Just got my third jab in Helsinki. Moderna this time. I'm not strictly speaking entitled to it since I'm not registered in the Finnish health system, but they are jabbing anyone who shows up, no questions asked, no appointment, just walk in. Like other aspects of the pandemic response here, it is superbly organized, pleasant, and friendly. Social trust means no fear.


On the other hand, people have started wearing masks again on public transport. It's not required nor, as far as I know, even recommended -- this was taken off in September when more or less all of the remaining restrictions were removed. People are more cautious, I guess, looking at what is going on in other parts of Europe.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Baronkrak

In other places it is the provaccers that are blamed for the spread. They are free to roam without a mask and do not respect social distancing.

Certainly in Ireland testing has recently shown high levels of asymptomatic Covid in school children. It’s not being considered to extend the school mask mandate to under 12s.

Recent public health statements say “ lock downs can’t be ruled out but that other measures are going to be used first )

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Anders

The data is from last week. I've seen the interview with the CEO of AZ recently but all the data I've ever seen shows Pfizer to be better than AZ .

Additional Israeli data confirms that there Phizer is waning after three months

However U.K. data shows both vaccines are not waning to the same degree as the Israeli data. The head of AZ opined that he believed the AZ vaccine was better at long term protection but no actual study data backs that up as yet.

The U.K. unlike Israel took much longer to administer the second dose. It now seems to have been the better decision even if the U.K. didn’t know at the time.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This is for GoBoatingNow, and concerns Ireland.


OurWorldInData came out with a very interesting compilation of data on death rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated, very well worth a read: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination. Yesterday we looked at the German statistics. Here is the U.S. from OWID:


Attachment 248794


If you go to the article, the table is interactive, and you can play with different age groups and time periods.


What is really interesting here is the scale. Now we can compare this to the death rates we've been watching all these months.


And notice that the rate for this wave peaks at 18 per million per day -- for the unvaccinated. For the vaccinated (all vaccines), it's 1.22.


I think now we can see why Ireland, with a high vaccination rate, can have death rates not much exceeding 2, despite infection rates which broke 1000 recently. If you were to take the U.S. death rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated, and change the proportions to reflect the Irish vaccination rate, you would end up with a blended rate just about where Ireland is now.


This ignores the effect of natural immunity, but we are in the ballpark.


We now know, contrary to what was believed earlier, that you can still have a big outbreak even with an 80% vaccination rate. This is rather horrifying and unexpected. But if the death rate never exceeds 2 or 3, then this does really start to look more like a bad flu season, than a demographically catastrophic pandemic. Vaccination is the key, and we start to understand why the Germans are moving to simply require it. My guess is that Austria and Germany will not be the last European countries to introduce general vaccination mandates (not just as conditions to employment).

Just today the deputy prime minister here in Ireland ( he’s also a doctor ) said the disease was plateauing at a very high level and that additional restrictions would be be necessary to reduce the infection rate.

I suspect mask wearing mandated will be extended to certain outdoor events and kids under 12. It looks like 2022 will be another hard slog

I now feel we will never return, in many countries to pre Covid normality. I suspect mask wearing mandates will be here for years.

[laird]

Looks like there's a new variant raising it's ugly head ,this one's appeared in South Africa

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

. . . I now feel we will never return, in many countries to pre Covid normality. I suspect mask wearing mandates will be here for years.

God, I hope you're wrong. But my guess is no better than yours.

[Dockhead]

The latest situation has apparently given a kick to vaccination rates. Ireland despite the already quite high vaccination rate, has steadily increased the vaccination rate over the last weeks to over 0.5 per 100 per day. I suppose that is mostly booster shots but still, this is impressive.


Australia, which is NOT indeed in Northern Europe, but which I've been watching since we have so many Ozian friends, has pulled off what we could call the Australian Vaccination Miracle, and has passed Norway and Sweden and is not far from Finland. Amazing.






We have a long ways to go, however, before we have enough people vaccinated in any of these countries to be sure we can't have yet another big wave of infection. In Finland the general mood is that we have just been lucky so far, and our turn for a horrible wave of infection could come at any moment.

[Exile]

Excellent discussion for the most part, but all this recent chatter is making me want to expedite finding my booster shot!

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Exile

Excellent discussion for the most part, but all this recent chatter is making me want to expedite finding my booster shot!

I would encourage you.

Did you read the NYT piece on waning vaccine effectiveness, linked above?

You're vastly less likely to die, but after a few months none of the vaccines will keep you from getting sick. I was sick with COVID and studies show that immunity from vaccination on top of natural immunity is particularly long lasting, but I'm not taking any chances. Exile, speaking from experience, you do NOT want to get sick with this thing. I am really grateful to the Finns for giving me a jab of Moderna today.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I would encourage you.

Did you read the NYT piece on waning vaccine effectiveness, linked above?

You're vastly less likely to die, but after a few months none of the vaccines will keep you from getting sick. I was sick with COVID and studies show that immunity from vaccination on top of natural immunity is particularly long lasting, but I'm not taking any chances. Exile, speaking from experience, you do NOT want to get sick with this thing. I am really grateful to the Finns for giving me a jab of Moderna today.

I hear you, and there was never really any question in my mind whether I would get a booster. More about being a bit dilatory of late along with low exposure risk, but I am going to be traveling again soon and so need to get it done. Availability now looks more favorable than ever where I live, so no excuses.

Like you, however, I've been of two minds about making the vaccinations mandatory for others, no doubt influenced by watching the usual polarization it's been creating in the hyper-politicized U.S. But much of the statistical information you and others have been posting from Europe is compelling, and I can foresee the costs/benefits weighing towards endorsing such policies as credible data about the impact of the unvaccinated on society at large continues to develop. As citizens, it's sometimes necessary to evaluate the complexities surrounding an issue in an objective, i.e. responsible manner, even (or especially) when our political leaders refuse to do so.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Exile

. . . Like you, however, I've been of two minds about making the vaccinations mandatory for others, no doubt influenced by watching the usual polarization it's been creating in the hyper-politicized U.S. But much of the statistical information you and others have been posting from Europe is compelling, and I can foresee the costs/benefits weighing towards endorsing such policies as credible data about the impact of the unvaccinated on society at large continues to develop. As citizens, it's sometimes necessary to evaluate the complexities surrounding an issue in an objective, i.e. responsible manner, even (or especially) when our political leaders refuse to do so.

It's a fascinating question of public policy, and I feel even guilty for getting such intellectual enjoyment out of it whilst people are suffering so desperately.


I am more and more going with the Germans on this, just because the costs imposed by the unvaccinated on the rest of us are so staggering. It's just not fair or right.