Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[goboatingnow]

Many Eu countries haven’t yet experienced the steep rise in cases the U.K. variant is bringing

You will see increasing inter country travel bans right through the summer and countries with serious variant outbreaks will remain in lockdown until herd immunity is largely achieved through vaccination , most likely mid summer 2022

This summer will not follow last years one.

I now believe that any summer or autumn plans in Europe for 2022 will not be possible

The eu Astra fallout will have major ramifications. The U.K. may return to normal ( somewhat ) sometime during 2021 but Europe will lag by 6 months or more imho.

Tonight here you will be fined € 500 if you try and leave the country ( yes leave it ) and holiday travel are classified as non essential

There has just been a public shaming of people that returned on a flight from the canaries ( a much safer destination ) with major talk shows condemning the Passangers

In our case it looks like the 5km restriction will remain till herd immunity is achieved as 75% of all infections are the U.K. variant strain. Yet unlike the U.K. we have no access to a national vaccine production facility.

It’s very hard to swallow watching my yacht over the internet just sit there. !!!

[Montanan]

Well I have been anticipating eventually more disconcerting news regarding adverse implications of new variants of the virus developing and spreading. The South African variant seems to have the capacity to be quite problematic as antibodies that persons who had previously been infected and had Covid seem to not be nearly or at all effective against the new strain, so reinfection seems probable and this variant appears [data is still slim] to be more deadly.

Snipet:

The new strain discovered in South Africa appears to have the ability to reduce the effectiveness of antibodies in people infected with the original version of the virus significantly.
Alex Sigal is a senior researcher at the Africa Health Research Institute and at Germany's Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology stated:
"Ten-fold would be conservative," but "you can also have complete knock-out," meaning a person's natural defenses to the original strain of the virus could prove useless against the variant in South Africa." That means those infected in the first wave could have little protection from the new strain, and even more troubling, it could render some of the vaccines less effective.

"It's clear that we've underestimated this virus," he says. "On the other hand, the evidence is not there yet that vaccines will be affected, and certainly people should keep vaccinating because that's the solution to this pandemic." At the country's central lab, scientists stress that immunity is only part of the picture. Data on just how effective the vaccines are against the new strain won't be available for a couple weeks, but in the future, vaccines may have to be tweaked every so often to protect against mutant strains — much as the annual flu shot has been for years.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

....

I would be really curious to know how much of the measures in Australia were actually planned ahead -- sealing up the country? Lockdowns? How was that policy formulated? I suspect there may have been a plan for all of that, unlike the situation in the U.S., but it would be interesting to know.

'The Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) (7 February 2020) (COVID-19 Plan) adapts the Pandemic Influenza Plan to specifically manage the national COVID-19 response.'

'On 21 January 2020 the CMO(Chief Medical Officer.... possibly our Fauci equivalent)issued a determination adding ‘human coronavirus with pandemic potential’ to the Biosecurity (Listed Human Diseases) Determination 2016. This decision triggered the activation of the National Incident Room, the National Medical Stockpile, and the National Trauma Centre, daily meetings of the AHPPC, and meetings of state, territory and Commonwealth health ministers to discuss pandemic readiness.'

All you could ever want to know and a bit more besides can be found here..
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam...onseManagement
and here..
https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo...b%2F7250104%22

In the second link you will find this....
'Scope of human biosecurity emergency powers

The Minister’s powers under sections 477 and 478 of the Biosecurity Act are expansive. The powers may be used to do the following:

• set requirements to regulate or restrict the movement of persons, goods, or conveyances

• require that places be evacuated

• make directions to close premises.'

A timeline here for the state of Victoria..
https://deborahalupton.medium.com/ti...a-1f7df6ca5f23

I feel the word 'lockdown' is very much overused.... it certainly wasn't a 'lockdown' in the Wuhan sense in March, people started working from home where they could, non essential businesses closed, schools closed, along with very liberal travel restrictions. All in all inconvenient... nothing more... and it worked...until the quarantine hotel stuffup... restrictions were a bit more severe that time around but not what I would call extreme ...and it also worked...

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

'The Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) (7 February 2020) (COVID-19 Plan) adapts the Pandemic Influenza Plan to specifically manage the national COVID-19 response.'

'On 21 January 2020 the CMO(Chief Medical Officer.... possibly our Fauci equivalent)issued a determination adding ‘human coronavirus with pandemic potential’ to the Biosecurity (Listed Human Diseases) Determination 2016. This decision triggered the activation of the National Incident Room, the National Medical Stockpile, and the National Trauma Centre, daily meetings of the AHPPC, and meetings of state, territory and Commonwealth health ministers to discuss pandemic readiness.'

All you could ever want to know and a bit more besides can be found here..
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam...onseManagement

The “chain of command” is certainly set out well in this document, but outlined procedures are extremely vague.

The plan is divided under 2 stages: Actions (Initial & Targeted) and Standdown.

In full, the “Targeted” portion of the plan consists of 4 items:
- Ensure a proportionate response.
- Support and maintain quality care.
- Communicate to engage, empower and build confidence in the community.
- Provide a coordinated and consistent approach.

This was the extent of any published Targeted plan.
In my book it is wooly, to say the least.

[El Pinguino]

Lockdown?
This is 'Lockdown'...
Bit of a read but some may consider the time well spent..
https://medium.com/@lydia.chen/62-da...f-78b58acf6743

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

The “chain of command” is certainly set out well in this document, but outlined procedures are extremely vague.

The plan is divided under 2 stages: Actions (Initial & Targeted) and Standdown.

In full, the “Targeted” portion of the plan consists of 4 items:
- Ensure a proportionate response.
- Support and maintain quality care.
- Communicate to engage, empower and build confidence in the community.
- Provide a coordinated and consistent approach.

This was the extent of any published Targeted plan.
In my book it is wooly, to say the least.

Umm...... that is the 'quick guide'

More detail at these sites..
'Standing national health crisis management and response arrangements

Australia has a series of standing health emergency plans, ordered from high level policy down to operational detail. The standing plans dealing specifically with pandemic response are described in the Parliamentary Library’s publication Australian Pandemic Response Planning: a Quick Guide. The main standing response plans for a pandemic are:

the Emergency Response Plan for Communicable Disease Incidents of National Significance: National Arrangements: National CD Plan (May 2018) (the National CD Plan)
the Emergency Response Plan for Communicable Disease Incidents of National Significance (September 2016) (the CD Plan)
the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza–AHPPMI, August 2019, (Pandemic Influenza Plan, also referred to as AHPPMI) and
the COMDISPLAN 2017: Australian Government Disaster Response Plan (2017) (COMDISPLAN).
The planned response to a national public health crisis involves action by the whole-of-government in parallel to the health sector. The Australian Government Crisis Management Framework (December 2017) (AGCMF) identifies the planned decision making framework for response to, and recovery from, any crisis event. Annex A.7 to the AGCMF sets out the standing response arrangements for a public health crisis. These arrangements are illustrated in Figure 1.'

Wooly or not.... it worked...

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Many Eu countries haven’t yet experienced the steep rise in cases the U.K. variant is bringing

You will see increasing inter country travel bans right through the summer and countries with serious variant outbreaks will remain in lockdown until herd immunity is largely achieved through vaccination , most likely mid summer 2022

This summer will not follow last years one.

I now believe that any summer or autumn plans in Europe for 2022 will not be possible

The eu Astra fallout will have major ramifications. The U.K. may return to normal ( somewhat ) sometime during 2021 but Europe will lag by 6 months or more imho.

Tonight here you will be fined € 500 if you try and leave the country ( yes leave it ) and holiday travel are classified as non essential

There has just been a public shaming of people that returned on a flight from the canaries ( a much safer destination ) with major talk shows condemning the Passangers

In our case it looks like the 5km restriction will remain till herd immunity is achieved as 75% of all infections are the U.K. variant strain. Yet unlike the U.K. we have no access to a national vaccine production facility.

It’s very hard to swallow watching my yacht over the internet just sit there. !!!

I hope you're wrong about that!

And it looks like a total freak-out in Ireland -- not pleasant. Public shaming? What is the world coming to?

It's a different world up here, but health authorities ARE worried about the mutant strains, and borders are getting tighter and tighter, not looser -- so far. In Denmark parliament are considering making the recommended quarantine a mandator one: https://www.thelocal.dk/20210126/den...DBaDGD1BxfTON4

Can be shortened to 4 days with a second test however.

You can't travel almost anywhere without a test nowadays. This is a PITA leaving Finland because testing for travel purposes (without doctor referral) costs more than €200. ENTERING Finland you get a free test in the airport. In Estonia it costs €60, and sometimes there are free tests on the ferries.

No two ways about it, my travelling is going to be considerably slowed down in the near future.

Just hoping the Danes will let me get back to my boat.

If the second wave has subsided even in the UK, infested with the mutant strain, then surely we can hope that the summer will be better than what you are predicting. It may be more infectious, but it's an incremental difference. We don't need full herd immunity to put a damper on the dynamics of the next wave, or even snuff it out altogether.

[laird]

Looks like the EU are trying to blame their poor record of vaccination on Astra zenica, there have been hold ups in production, apparently the UK signed a deal with Astra Zenica 3 months before the EU, this would appear to be one of the few positives from Brexit, the EU it would appear are threatening to turn the vaccine into a political weapon by restricting its export , my own view is that if I order something 3 months before another customer, I expect my order to be prioritised

[UFO]

Looks like an interesting addition in the fight against the pandemic, Although as Trump had it and promoted it, most of you will probably think its rubbish


https://news.yahoo.com/regenerons-an...122430495.html

[Dockhead]

Today Finland announced borders to Sweden and Norway are closed. Sigh.

That just about does it for any travel among the Nordic states. Last week Sweden closed borders to Denmark and Norway.

Denmark is closed to the whole world. Sigh.

Everyone is concerned about the UK and SA mutations. Sweden has in place the hardest measures it has employed since the beginning of the pandemic; Denmark is also on strict (by Nordic standards) measures.

This really sucks. Border closings are really oppressive in this part of the world, as the Nordic space is really like one single country in many ways, with very many people living in one country and working in another (especially across the Sound between Denmark and Sweden, and across the border between Sweden and Norway), many mixed families.

Fortunately the numbers are much, much better in Denmark and Sweden, which both had significant second waves. I really hope we get back to the conditions of September-October. But I don't know about the borders. Goboatingnow may be right. Surely at least by late spring things will loosen up?

Vaccination is going too slowly here to hope that vaccination alone will eliminate risks anytime soon.

When will this nightmare end?

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

. . . Sigh.

. . . Sigh.

Everyone is concerned about the UK and SA mutations. Surely at least by late spring things will loosen up?

Vaccination is going too slowly here to hope that vaccination alone will eliminate risks anytime soon.

When will this nightmare end?

The mutations appear to be problematic.

I read yesterday that the SA mutation, that the antibodies of people who had previously been infected with earlier strain of Covid are at least ten times LESS effective in neutralizing against the new variant and in additional cases there was no blocking, so reinfection appears possible, if not likely. The data as to the effectiveness of current vaccines deriving protection to the new mutation is still a two or three weeks out, so it is unclear if the present vaccines will remain effective against this strain.

The strain that is becoming prevalent in one of the main cities of Brazil appears to be problematic as that city had been swept by Covid in October 2020 and was thought to have thus developed herd immunity with about 75% having been previously infected so they let the social distancing protocols relax but this new variant is now sweeping through and has overwhelmed their healthcare system, e.g., they don't have enough oxygen to aid all the patients.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/could-dou...120000360.html

So mutation seems to be availing reinfection and may result in either reduced protection by existing vaccines or minimal / to no protection to some of the new variants by existing vaccines.

The CEO of Moderna indicated that he perceives that new vaccines will need to be continuously developed and deployed as "booster" shots much like the annual flu vaccines and he is concerned that variants may become even more contagious and / or have worsening outcome percentages [greater hospitalizations and mortality]. He is hoping that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine will be proven safe and effective against some or many of the existing variants of the virus, such that Moderna can shift its production towards making the "booster" vaccines oriented specifically to mitigate against new variants. His hope being that the booster will only need much lesser milligrams of active ingredient than the initial vaccinations and / or perhaps a single booster, hope against hope that the bodies initial response carries benefit to more targeted beneficial response.

The implementation of international travel restrictions, both as to allowing citizens to travel out of country, and of course, inhibiting all incoming non-citizens, and / or eliminating repatriation of citizens and permanent residents is a tough stand, but can be a very effective means of a country choosing to social distance itself from variants developed elsewhere. There being truly extremely few instances of "essential" travel purposes from he perspective of a country not being able to make due without a person entering a country. And those very few instances can be handled by lockdown, monitored quarantine upon arrival, i.e., placed in a hotel room with the door locked from the outside for 14 to 20 days at the travellers personal expense. Such extended quarantine and expense tends to raise the bar of what is considered "essential" travel purposes.

This is going to be a long and precarious haul.

All the best. Stay safe, stay healthy.

[laird]

Originally Posted by Montanan

The mutations appear to be problematic.

So mutation seems to be availing reinfection and may result in either reduced protection by existing vaccines or minimal / to no protection to some of the new variants by existing vaccines.

The CEO of Moderna indicated that he perceives that new vaccines will need to be continuously developed and deployed as "booster" shots much like the annual flu vaccines and he is concerned that variants may become even more contagious and / or have worsening outcome percentages [greater hospitalizations and mortality]. He is hoping that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine will be proven safe and effective against some or many of the existing variants of the virus, such that Moderna can shift its production towards making the "booster" vaccines oriented specifically to mitigate against new variants. His hope being that the booster will only need much lesser milligrams of active ingredient than the initial vaccinations and / or perhaps a single booster, hope against hope that the bodies initial response carries benefit to more targeted beneficial

This is going to be a long and precarious haul.

All the best. Stay safe, stay healthy.

I totally agree with that , I honestly think that there will be annual covid shots in the same way that the flu is handed out ,the phrase " new normal " appears to take on different dimensions on a daily basis

I wonder what lies ahead for my children and my 1 and 1 due soon grandchildren

[UFO]

Originally Posted by laird

I totally agree with that , I honestly think that there will be annual covid shots in the same way that the flu is handed out ,the phrase " new normal " appears to take on different dimensions on a daily basis

I wonder what lies ahead for my children and my 1 and 1 due soon grandchildren

I have been saying all along that that is what will need to be done, but it's our perception of the virus and how our governments in the future continue to react is the real problem for our Kids and Grand kids.


If we can get to a mentality of how we treat the flu with vaccinating the at risk each year and accept that there will be several hundred thousand a year that die from it, like can die from the Flu then it will be OK, But if we continue to allow Fear and Paranoia to rule our decisions and try and save everyone, then we will be putting our future generations to the sword, to simply save a very small % of the worlds population, most of which are already older than the average death rate of each country they die in - AKA they did not have a huge amount of time left anyway.

[arsenelupiga]

hope you guys are prepared for the possibility of multi decades plague. Seem to be going that way. These shots do basically nothing, except will give you 'iphone passport' or so they say. And of course there is $$$ part for chemists.

Once people realize shots are basically worthless, borders will close for very long in worthwhile locations. And the only way to travel may be by testing = more expensive and time consuming and dangerous as rules will change on fly.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by arsenelupiga

These shots do basically nothing, except will give you 'iphone passport' or so they say. And of course there is $$$ part for chemists.

Once people realize shots are basically worthless, .

ZERO evidence for this...
source?