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Old 23-03-2020, 04:09   #1
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New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

One of the reasons the Australian government recommended that the schools remain open was that the C virus predominately kills old people.

The country has been shut down in response to the virus with business bankruptcy rates and unemployment predicted to go through the roof.

Proposals to call out the navy to intercept yachties attempting to sneak over state boundaries at sea or end run the 12 nm legal state limits plague the airwaves (maybe a slight exaggeration or perhaps speculative but I'm certain there's a media mogul or gman gnome out there somewhere pondering on it)

There is not a roll of toilet paper to be had on the entire continent for love or money.

And on and on it goes.

Is this a measured response to a real health crises, impending catastrophe, or the outcome of an interconnected world.

Prior to the internet a world wide collation of health issues such has just occurred would take weeks and maybe months to filter through to the public and perhaps we have had similar situations but that the deaths of the predominately old victims was hidden in the natural mortality statistics.
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Old 23-03-2020, 04:32   #2
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

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Originally Posted by RaymondR View Post
... Is this a measured response to a real health crises, impending catastrophe, or the outcome of an interconnected world...
Perhaps, all of the above ... and more.
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Old 23-03-2020, 05:48   #3
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

Well since the age of the internet in the not too distant past, 650,000 died of the flu in one year (averaged out at 55,000 per month)


https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news...s/2017/flu/en/


Not a whisper of that in the media when it happened.



61,000 died in the States a couple of years ago and 25,000 in Italy in the Winter flu season and again no massive media push


Make what you will of that information
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Old 23-03-2020, 06:02   #4
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

So how many people do any of you know with covid19? I know one who thinks he and his wife have it, but of course, thanks to the guy who knows more about it than anyone else, he can't get tested and doesn't know for sure.

The ability for the virus to overwhelm the capacity of the health care system certainly remains, at least in the US, as has been demonstrated by the situation in Italy.

That is if one believes the 'fake news'...
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Old 23-03-2020, 06:34   #5
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

2017 - 60,000 flu patients didn't overwhelm the US medical system.

No one wants to get sick. in 2017 I was sick as a dog for over a week. That's when I found out Tamiflu actually works.

650,000 people die, not a peep. (actually this isn't true either. there were many news reports telling people this was an unusually bad flu season, and be careful).

2,000 die, "it's the end of the world as we know it". The upside is reported deaths from the flu are unusually low this year.

Whether it's from misdiagnosis, or the same people would have died from either disease, I don't know. May make an interesting study some day.

If everyone was to wear masks, and glove like the Chinese did during SARS we could get a handle on this without shutting the country down.

But election year politics can get weird. At some point putting millions out of work will kill more than the disease,

Remember victory gardens in WW2? if the grocery stores close, how long can you go without food?
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Old 23-03-2020, 07:44   #6
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

Coronavirus has no herd immunity, vaccinations, or treatment like we have for flu viruses. Itís a new virus and we have no idea what will happen in a pandemic.

We do know that when explorers introduced new viruses to the Marquesas, the population was wiped out. From over 100,000 people down to 2000 people.

Extreme measures are indicated when you have a new virus with no herd immunity since we have no way to know what will happen.

This is not the flu. There have never been so many people on ventilators in the USA. Just because the number of deaths so far are lower than the flu doesnít mean we should write this off and let people die.

This uncharted territory and we are sailing blind.

I am a retired physician, and I am glad I am not seeing patients at the present time. My daughter is a physician, a hospitalist, and they are under siege.

After we get herd immunity and vaccinations, the response and management will be completely different.
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Old 23-03-2020, 07:56   #7
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

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Is this a measured response to a real health crises, impending catastrophe, or the outcome of an interconnected world.
COVID-19 is a serious health threat. It is different from other versions of the flu that we have dealt with in the past. It cannot, and should not, be treated as "just another flu."


On the other hand, hoarding toilet paper in response to this is absolutely IDIOTIC. There is simply no other word for it. The brainless, hysterical panic in response to this has been completely out of proportion to the real health threat that exists.


I think the response within the medical community (I do IT support for a hospital and associated doctor's offices) has been mostly measured and reasonable. The panic within the general public is a media/social media driven hysteria that cannot -- in any way -- be considered "measured."
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Old 23-03-2020, 08:00   #8
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

Hmmm.

This is additional patients when we were already in the middle of flu season, which is the high water mark for the year for treating respiratory disease. So, we have to add these cases, thereby overwhelming the whole thing.

This disease kills 3% of diagnosed cases, while influenza kills 0.1%. That's 30 times as deadly. It is also very contageous, so we are likely to have more cases than we have for influenza, with 30 times the deaths.

Being 74, I don't want you to ignore precautions, such that I get it with a 15% chance of dying. Do you understand that? Understand how I could be angry at people who find excuses to ignore the best available advice?

Please don't use "Do you know anyone..." arguments. Those are not data. Data are number of diagnosed cases versus deaths, and number of active cases needing treatment, which are doubling every few days in the US and Italy. This week will be critical in the US.
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Old 23-03-2020, 08:31   #9
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

This type of comment always get me.

One of the reasons the Australian government recommended that the schools remain open was that the C virus predominately kills old people.


Just because kids have a low mortality rate to the disease is not a reason to keep schools open. Kids are not good at self control and social distancing. Kids are notorious for spreading bodily fluids, I have two, I know this.


Keeping schools open is a very real way of spreading COVID-19 between households in a community, infecting adults and people with compromised immune systems.


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Old 23-03-2020, 12:19   #10
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

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.....Please don't use "Do you know anyone..." arguments. Those are not data. Data are number of diagnosed cases versus deaths, and number of active cases needing treatment, which are doubling every few days in the US and Italy. This week will be critical in the US.
Who's using " 'Do you know anyone...' arguments"?

Hard to know the 'data' when the ability to test is severely restricted.

The point is that this has been mishandled from the start, and given the worldwide responses from most governments, it seems to continue to be mishandled by the same, though there may be some slight improvement in the offing.

If there is any 'golden lining' for the future it may be that this will illuminate the shortcomings of electing and relying on ignorant, authoritarian government officials and the illusory value of 'free market' corporate capitalism, especially in regards to matters of public health.

But I seriously doubt it.
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Old 23-03-2020, 12:32   #11
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

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This type of comment always get me.

One of the reasons the Australian government recommended that the schools remain open was that the C virus predominately kills old people.


Just because kids have a low mortality rate to the disease is not a reason to keep schools open. Kids are not good at self control and social distancing. Kids are notorious for spreading bodily fluids, I have two, I know this.


Keeping schools open is a very real way of spreading COVID-19 between households in a community, infecting adults and people with compromised immune systems.


Sean
The rationale was that during the school week kids live in very controlled environments without a lot of free time to wander around and make random contacts which will spread the virus.

I was just watching the news on TV and it shows long lines of folks waiting in close proximity for the Centrelink office (Government unemployment office) total inquiries have jumped tenfold.

The Australian government making a huge splash of taxpayer funds. One is mindful of the old adage that no mans life, liberty or wealth is safe whilst the legislature is in session.

The link to the WHO paper enlightens one in respect of the comparison between the extant health incident and previous annual ones without the widespread panic. Why this time.
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Old 23-03-2020, 12:41   #12
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

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The link to the WHO paper enlightens one in respect of the comparison between the extant health incident and previous annual ones without the widespread panic. Why this time.

Serious questions:
  • how many people do you guesstimate that COVID-19 will kill in this outbreak? Your answer can be for Oz, worldwide, whatever, as long it's comparable to flu stats
  • how many potential deaths would be forecast for you to (reluctantly) agree that the current extreme measures are justified?
I just want those who are certain that we're overreacting to explain it better to me. Maybe we are overreacting.
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Old 23-03-2020, 12:56   #13
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

Two examples:

1. Japan, oldest population in the world, early shut down of schools and disciplined self quarantine......next to no deaths.

2. Italy, second oldest population on earth, slow undisciplined approach, massive death toll.....

You can’t argue with the numbers....

The Italian numbers may by artificially low, in some nursing homes the rate of mortality may be 70%, all not tested for COVID 19 so don't show up in Italian stats.......

Please be careful out there....

Oh, the shut down of schools in Japan had nothing to do with save the children........it was all about saving the grand parents.
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Old 23-03-2020, 13:02   #14
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

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Serious questions:
  • how many people do you guesstimate that COVID-19 will kill in this outbreak? Your answer can be for Oz, worldwide, whatever, as long it's comparable to flu stats
  • how many potential deaths would be forecast for you to (reluctantly) agree that the current extreme measures are justified?
I just want those who are certain that we're overreacting to explain it better to me. Maybe we are overreacting.
The WHO paper provides estimates so I don't have to guess.

The response I am observing appears to be neither deliberate nor measured just politicians reacting to each other to rapidly take us towards the lowest common denominator.

This summer Australia has had bush fires. Australia always has summer bush fires but usually without the frenzy. Almost every year we have a flu season and every few years a new virus, but usually without the frenzy.

Is the constant drip of instant access to masses of information from all over the world via the internet driving us to overreaction?
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Old 23-03-2020, 13:05   #15
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Re: New Experience with Viruses or Mishandling the Information Age

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The WHO paper provides estimates so I don't have to guess.

The response I am observing appears to be neither deliberate nor measured just politicians reacting to each other to rapidly take us towards the lowest common denominator.

This summer Australia has had bush fires. Australia always has summer bush fires but usually without the frenzy. Almost every year we have a flu season and every few years a new virus, but usually without the frenzy.

Is the constant drip of instant access to masses of information from all over the world via the internet driving us to overreaction?

Copout. Numbers, please.



You think we're overreacting. I'm just trying to determine what you think we're overreacting to, quantatively-speaking.
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