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Old 01-08-2020, 13:02   #241
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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I feel we have all been hoping for a quick fix to COVID-19, then back to normal.

This suggests otherwise

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/os...des-2020-07-30
A good example of credible & objective media reporting, even though part of me now wishes I had never read it. Not exactly promising news, but there's enough warning, drama & concern in the message itself without having to sensationalize it for the sake of ratings. Then again, this is why MarketWatch.com isn't a mainstream media outlet. What "sells" are appeals to peoples' emotions, fears, partisanship, and tribal instincts. Not much we can do about it except call it out and not be part of the herd. Healthy skepticism is not the same as wholesale rejection of media, experts, institutions, etc. as some on here have tried to accuse others of. It's much more complex than that, except for those who only seem able to see it in overly simplistic terms.
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Old 01-08-2020, 14:33   #242
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

Yes, covid seems perfectly positioned to stay with us nearly forever. So we need to develop systems for dealing with it. There may be no magic bullet to “kill” it.

On the positive side, we thought that about HIV 10 years ago.
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Old 01-08-2020, 14:49   #243
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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. . . Healthy skepticism is not the same as wholesale rejection of media, experts, institutions, etc. as some on here have tried to accuse others of. It's much more complex than that, except for those who only seem able to see it in overly simplistic terms.

Amen!!!
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Old 01-08-2020, 16:09   #244
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

Proof that your brain hears what you want it to hear and ignores the rest:

https://twitter.com/bfriedmandc/stat...730534912?s=21
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Old 01-08-2020, 19:07   #245
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Yes, covid seems perfectly positioned to stay with us nearly forever. So we need to develop systems for dealing with it. There may be no magic bullet to “kill” it.

On the positive side, we thought that about HIV 10 years ago.
And if they don't kill it are places like NZ going to stay in lock out and isolate themselves from the world forever?

I seem to recall the HIV thing and whilst they encouraged us to "safe sex" I don't recall any government actually banning it.
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Old 01-08-2020, 19:20   #246
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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And if they don't kill it are places like NZ going to stay in lock out and isolate themselves from the world forever?

I seem to recall the HIV thing and whilst they encouraged us to "safe sex" I don't recall any government actually banning it.
not banned but criminalised

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimin...mission_of_HIV

In many English-speaking countries and in most of the states who have signed the European Convention of Human Rights,[6] knowingly infecting others with HIV can lead to criminal prosecution. One such case is that of Thomas Guerra, an American landscape architect, who became the first person in the state of California to be convicted for intentionally infecting another individual with HIV. In court, prosecutors presented 11,000 text messages and 36 audio clips to support their case against Guerra. Since then, Guerra has been accused of intentionally exposing dozens of other men to HIV.[7][8][9]
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Old 01-08-2020, 20:00   #247
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Which one is right?
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Old 01-08-2020, 20:03   #248
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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I have been sick with COVID in January -- sickest I've ever been in my life. I can well imagine that if I had any weakness in heart or lungs, been obese, or something else like that, it would have been lights out.

Ugh. Glad you made it out.
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Old 01-08-2020, 20:53   #249
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Which one is right?
They both are ...

The graph that trails off has a note explaining why: "Because DSHS is reporting fatalities by date of death, the number of fatalities for recent days will continue to grow as more death certificates are filed for those days."
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Old 01-08-2020, 21:15   #250
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

Being from Texas I can attest there is a lot of hype out there ... with a small portion of it being real.

In the Houston area there has definitely been an upswing. Looking at positive tests however is meaningless. Positive Covid tests represent an unknown percentage of an unknown number of people that have actually been infected.

Deaths (maybe), hospital bed usage, ICU usage and ventilator usage are material stats that are more meaningful. Here is a decent graph for the Houston and surrounding areas detailing that info: SouthEast Texas Regional Advisory Council Hospital Stats

More than 50% of the hospital bed capacity remains available and Covid patients represent around 20% of the beds. That's still significant but not the "sky is falling" stuff you hear out of the media. ICU beds are in short supply with only 10% available capacity. Covid patients account for 40% of ICU usage.

And the big comparison you never hear in the media is during the 2017/18 influenza season, the flu killed 11,000 Texans. Covid, even with monetary incentives to pad your numbers, is at 7,200.
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Old 01-08-2020, 21:59   #251
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Ugh. Glad you made it out.

Thank you! I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. This is a nasty disease, nothing like the flu at all.
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Old 02-08-2020, 08:15   #252
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Just when I thought I knew something

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Originally Posted by NPCampbell View Post
They both are ...

The graph that trails off has a note explaining why: "Because DSHS is reporting fatalities by date of death, the number of fatalities for recent days will continue to grow as more death certificates are filed for those days."

This is the right answer. However I would say the graph that shows the number reported each day is not accurate. What matters is when each death occurred. We have seen numerous cases of “ballot box stuffing” where a state will report thousands of cases in a single day but the actual deaths were weeks previously. The “best” way is report actual day of death as Texas DSHS is now doing. But most states are not reporting that way.

Texas also has taken the “controversial” step of only reporting a covid death when the death certificate shows covid as the cause of death.
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Old 02-08-2020, 11:59   #253
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Being from Texas I can attest there is a lot of hype out there ... with a small portion of it being real.
SNIP
And the big comparison you never hear in the media is during the 2017/18 influenza season, the flu killed 11,000 Texans. Covid, even with monetary incentives to pad your numbers, is at 7,200.
So far the number, padded or not, is 7,200. The 11,000 number for 2017/18 needs to be compared to the COVID-19 2020/2021 which still has a good six months plus to go.
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Old 02-08-2020, 15:02   #254
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

In an attempt to cut through the speculation:




For complete details on Texas:
https://i.postimg.cc/fbr8Xv6F/texas-summary.png

I suggest you link Covid Act Now, well respected and very informative.
https://covidactnow.org/?s=815149


Now let's try another test of knowledge that will help you analyze performance:




Compare and contrast which country you'd prefer to live in, and why?
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Old 02-08-2020, 16:08   #255
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo View Post
In an attempt to cut through the speculation:




For complete details on Texas:
https://i.postimg.cc/fbr8Xv6F/texas-summary.png

I suggest you link Covid Act Now, well respected and very informative.
https://covidactnow.org/?s=815149


Now let's try another test of knowledge that will help you analyze performance:




Compare and contrast which country you'd prefer to live in, and why?
Was that Dublin in Ireland or Doubling in Texas?
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