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Old 01-08-2020, 02:07   #226
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
. . . This is not new, it's a mostly airborne virus much less contagious, or if one prefers, with a much lower Rnaught value (probably at least an order of magnitude less), than measles, and can easily be controlled by a concerted, regionally individualized campaign of the standard statistical application of testing, quarantine and tracing, even when, in places such as the US, none of those things have been done so far..

Is that true? Is it being done like that anywhere?


I've read plenty about the idea of this, and Korea was named as an early success story, but has this really been implemented anywhere else?


I've never read ANYWHERE, that any epidemiologist believes that the Coronavirus pandemic "can be easily controlled". Glad to be educated if I missed something.
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Old 01-08-2020, 02:16   #227
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Are we talking about R, the effective rate of reproduction, or Rnaught, the basic reproductive ratio?

If R, then the rate has been decreasing because more people have been infected. Not a good metric for determining the Rnaught which, if I understand correctly, is a somewhat arbitrary, but nonetheless very useful means of determining the trajectory of an epidemic, or in this case, pandemic, because it can help to establish when the ratio of people infected no longer supports the spread of the virus. If less than one to one (or whatever the number is) the virus cannot spread; more than one to one, it can, and again, in this case, with unregulated 'herd activity' it has quite conclusively shown, it will.

The most, for me, silly thing about many of the posts in this thread, and in the public discourse in general, is the almost constant refrain 'we just don't know'; what to do, what to expect, how to deal with it, 'X'. 'X', 'X'.

This is not new, it's a mostly airborne virus much less contagious, or if one prefers, with a much lower Rnaught value (probably at least an order of magnitude less), than measles, and can easily be controlled by a concerted, regionally individualized campaign of the standard statistical application of testing, quarantine and tracing, even when, in places such as the US, none of those things have been done so far.

The big question is 'why haven't they?' And I'll leave that to everyone's imagination...
I was referring to R rather than Rnaught.

One unknown is the degree of immunity gained after infection. If the immunity is strong and life long (like say measles) then high initial infection rates (or a vaccine) will bode well however if immunity is weak or short (say months), then we should expect ongoing waves

I think .
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Old 01-08-2020, 04:36   #228
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

Virus gonna virus. The smart kids know you canít really control nature. All you can do is nudge her here and there. So even with massive government intervention itís nearly impossible to see the signature of that intervention in the data (infections/deaths). But easy to see the signature of that action in human suffering.

When someone tells you they know which government policies (or government person) has impacted the virus data, they are making that up. They donít know, they ďbelieveĒ it but they donít ďknowĒ it.
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Old 01-08-2020, 06:39   #229
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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I've read plenty about the idea of this, and Korea was named as an early success story, but has this really been implemented anywhere else?
Yes, Taiwan and Singapore, with Taiwan contact tracing considered to be the best of the three.
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Old 01-08-2020, 08:12   #230
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Virus gonna virus. The smart kids know you canít really control nature. All you can do is nudge her here and there. So even with massive government intervention itís nearly impossible to see the signature of that intervention in the data (infections/deaths). But easy to see the signature of that action in human suffering.

When someone tells you they know which government policies (or government person) has impacted the virus data, they are making that up. They donít know, they ďbelieveĒ it but they donít ďknowĒ it.
( The really smart kids know why Siberia is burning right now.)

This sounds like a longwinded shrug. Bit of a different tone from a month ago when you were telling us how things were just fine in Texas.

The signatures of interventions have mostly been obvious. Not all equally successful, and not yet understood enough by the public to pick a winner, but most applied measures caused reduction in infection rates. Why is this in dispute?

It's not productive right now to dwell on the actions of sitting leaders, but history will confirm whose actions (or inaction) had what consequences.
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Old 01-08-2020, 09:07   #231
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Just when I thought I knew something

Things are just fine in Texas. Hospitals are at normal patient loads. Some Covid deaths but not a disaster by any means. The panic porn you see on the news is wrong. Kinda like all the mostly peaceful protests.

Itís been amazing to watch all the hysteria in the news and then when looking at actual data things are not terrible. Not nearly as bad as the flu season of 2018 when Texas hospitals had tents erected in parking lots to handle the overflow. None of that reported this time.

The people who have CV19 in Texas are no where near as sick as the earliest victims such as in NY and NJ. NY and NJ still hold the record for most percentage of their population killed. By an order of magnitude more than Texas. Unlikely that stat will change.
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Old 01-08-2020, 09:38   #232
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Things are just fine in Texas.

If you say so.
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Old 01-08-2020, 09:40   #233
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

Look for yourself here:

https://texas2036.shinyapps.io/covid_tracker/
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Old 01-08-2020, 09:50   #234
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Just a little inside knowledge about Hidalgo county. This is also a hotspot of illegal immigration. And the local officials are similar in their beliefs and management styles to New York. They are making a lot of noise for political reasons and there are plenty of news outlets that think 0.01% of the state is representative of the whole state.
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Old 01-08-2020, 10:06   #235
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Itís been amazing to watch all the hysteria in the news and then when looking at actual data things are not terrible.
Been mostly 'lurking' these unnecessarily politicized controversial Covid-19 threads, but couldn't help noticing how well L-E just put a fine point on your comment above. This pandemic has hit me all too close to home so I'm certainly not one to minimize its impact, but the two different sources cited in these two posts are probably the starkest contrast I've yet seen between reality and how the media sensationalizes it. And I'm certainly not limiting my assessment to CNN. Between the intense election year partisanship and the constant battle for readership and ratings, it's more difficult than ever to obtain objective information. These contrasting posts and cited sources are revealing, however, on what actually influences people and why.
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Old 01-08-2020, 10:13   #236
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

I do not want minimize the impact on people who develop covid. It is not fun.

But there is no way to live a virus free life here on Earth. Zika is also a terrible virus as is Lyme disease and a multitude of other virus caused illnesses. Malaria has killed a lot of people every year for hundreds of years.
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Old 01-08-2020, 10:39   #237
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Been mostly 'lurking' these unnecessarily politicized controversial Covid-19 threads, but couldn't help noticing how well L-E just put a fine point on your comment above. This pandemic has hit me all too close to home so I'm certainly not one to minimize its impact, but the two different sources cited in these two posts are probably the starkest contrast I've yet seen between reality and how the media sensationalizes it. And I'm certainly not limiting my assessment to CNN. Between the intense election year partisanship and the constant battle for readership and ratings, it's more difficult than ever to obtain objective information. These contrasting posts and cited sources are revealing, however, on what actually influences people and why.
All I was reacting to was the assertion that "Things are just fine in Texas."

From both my link and Dan's link, when I look at stats for Hidalgo... not seeing "just fine". And there's 5 months still to go in 2020.

Just or barely managing, maybe, and perhaps Texas and the other US hotspots will manage to get through the year without being overwhelmed. Yet there's still apparently enough latitude for the Texas governer to be sparring with counties and municipalities about restrictions, and other such partisan brinksmanship, which will probably get worse as November approaches.

It's kind of blinkered for so many to vilify just "the media" for bias and hysteria when it's so baked into the US political landscape.

To me the biggest problems with COVID-19 data reporting are:
  1. there's so frigging much of it, without much consensus - ooops sorry - agreement about what is the most reasonable way to present data to the general public
  2. experts and authorities are being attacked and "devalued" for political gain. Current targets include the WHO, the CDC, Dr Fauci, etc. So... who can one trust for info?
No one in my personal circle has died from COVID-19, or has been seriously ill with it. Yet. So I should be on team "it's not that bad". But then there's my Trinidadian friend who runs a great roti shop. He opted to close in March, and just re-opened for takeout only in mid July. He has friends who also have a roti shop. They opted to stay open. The husband and wife owners died from COVID-19.


Stay safe, everyone. And spare a thought for those who chose to, or had to work through the worst of this.
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Old 01-08-2020, 10:52   #238
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Originally Posted by transmitterdan View Post

Hidalgo County may be in a hellish situation right now, but the first article did not imply that all of Texas is like that.


According to Worldometer, Texas is not doing too badly compared to other U.S. states, 241 cumulative deaths per million, about half the average for the whole country, and far below the hardest hit Northeastern states, four of which have over 1000 (!) deaths per million. New Jersey has nearly 1,800 (!) deaths per million.


To put in context with Europe, only the microstate of San Marino has more than 1000 deaths per million. Texas' 241 is a bit more than Switzerland and a lot less than say Ireland with 357. Spain and the UK are at 608 and 680 respectively.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Old 01-08-2020, 10:58   #239
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
All I was reacting to was the assertion that "Things are just fine in Texas."

From both my link and Dan's link, when I look at stats for Hidalgo... not seeing "just fine". And there's 5 months still to go in 2020.

Just or barely managing, maybe, and perhaps Texas and the other US hotspots will manage to get through the year without being overwhelmed. Yet there's still apparently enough latitude for the Texas governer to be sparring with counties and municipalities about restrictions, and other such partisan brinksmanship, which will probably get worse as November approaches.

It's kind of blinkered for so many to vilify just "the media" for bias and hysteria when it's so baked into the US political landscape.

To me the biggest problems with COVID-19 data reporting are:
  1. there's so frigging much of it, without much consensus - ooops sorry - agreement about what is the most reasonable way to present data to the general public
  2. experts and authorities are being attacked and "devalued" for political gain. Current targets include the WHO, the CDC, Dr Fauci, etc. So... who can one trust for info?
No one in my personal circle has died from COVID-19, or has been seriously ill with it. Yet. So I should be on team "it's not that bad". But then there's my Trinidadian friend who runs a great roti shop. He opted to close in March, and just re-opened for takeout only in mid July. He has friends who also have a roti shop. They opted to stay open. The husband and wife owners died from COVID-19.


Stay safe, everyone. And spare a thought for those who chose to, or had to work through the worst of this.

Yep. I agree with all this.


I have been sick with COVID in January -- sickest I've ever been in my life. I can well imagine that if I had any weakness in heart or lungs, been obese, or something else like that, it would have been lights out.



I know two people who have died from it, both of whom were apparently healthy.


AND -- I know one person whose father attempted suicide two days ago because his small business, into which he had invested every penny he had, was ruined by lockdown.


So far be it from me to say "it's not that bad". Neither the epidemic, nor the measures we are taking against it.
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Old 01-08-2020, 12:24   #240
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Re: Just when I thought I knew something

I feel we have all been hoping for a quick fix to COVID-19, then back to normal.

This suggests otherwise

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/os...des-2020-07-30
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