Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 17-04-2020, 10:11   #1
Writing Full-Time Since 2014
 
thinwater's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Deale, MD
Boat: PDQ Altair, 32/34
Posts: 7,057
Just how do we go sailing again?

Thread after thread hammers that you need to stay at home. Yup. Got it. But that mono-theme is short sighted.



Soon (intentionally undefined) we're all (mostly) going back to work. This will happen long before infection rates drop below ~ March 10 levels. they will be far higher than the popular models predict, because the models include theoretical assumptions that aren't realistic. The drop in infection rates in Europe, for example, have been much slower than the rise, much slower than the UW model has predicted, and thus Europe is the real model, at least in part. The models show a swift decay to zero, which is not likely. The China example is false, because it was a small area and because the government did things our government could never do.



These, I believe are facts. We are passing the peak, but COVID will be with us at considerable levels, more than people want to talk about, for many months.



There will be a sequence in going back to work. There will be new measures. But the amount of contact will increase, a lot. A random, isolated trip to the boat is not even a rounding area on a rounding error. Restaurants will open. People will shop. Sidewalks will fill and mass transit will increase. EVERYONE will have things they want to do, and they will ALL feel they have the right to do so, as much or more as some weird sailors have to go sailing.



---


What should the new"measures" include? This is just a discussion starter, not my opinions.
  • Universal mask wear in public?
  • Universal mask wear in the work place? At least one state has mandated this as a condition of reopening.
  • Respirator training? Mandatory if the employer requires use in the workplace (OSHA). 90% of the people don't have a clue about fit testing or donning/doffing procedure.
And what is the sequence?
  • How do we decide what is "essential?" I'm quite sure we all have different opinions. Does this mean that "less necessary" things like sailing or theaters or sporting events or salons or gyms are grouped together and delayed for 6 months? Clearly, these are all different cases.
  • Do the same measures apply to these as the workplace (universal mask wear, for example)?
What I am sure of is that if we are comfortable berating each other for going out now, that is NOTHING compared to the increase in contact we will see in the next few months. We will have to consider actually practices, not whether a person has "gone out."



It seems like we need to figure out how to live with contact. The rules will get more complicated and we will need to follow them. Not sayin' it will be easy and all suggestions are welcome. Lock-down is the right answer now, but unless you are retired, it will end, and it will end long before COVID is gone.
__________________

__________________
Gear Testing--Engineering--Sailing
https://sail-delmarva.blogspot.com/
thinwater is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 05:50   #2
Registered User
 
LittleWing77's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 518
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Well, here's a start: Boating Ontario's Suggested Best Practices for Marinas:
Attached Files
File Type: pdf 73764e8f-6138-4c6e-9fd5-50359ba362e4 (1).pdf (769.9 KB, 747 views)
__________________

LittleWing77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 06:16   #3
Moderator
 
a64pilot's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Jacksonville/ out cruising
Boat: Island Packet 38
Posts: 29,925
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

I don’t understand the question.
Surely sailing is as social distancing as you can get?

Now I have not been watching the news, not even a little bit, but gut thinks this is round one for the virus, unless of course it does what the first SARS did.
The infection rate hasn’t been nearly enough for herd immunity?

I also believe I will move this to the Covid section.
a64pilot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 06:38   #4
Registered User
 
Mike OReilly's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Good question
Boat: Rafiki 37
Posts: 8,037
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Here's a sign of the new normal to come:
Air passengers will be required to wear non-medical masks starting April 20

So now, all travel in Canada will require passengers to wear masks. The change also appears to include ships, trains -- any trans-provincial transport.

With all the "security" changes from 9/11, and now this, we might as well just show up at airports wearing nothing but hospital gowns and masks.
__________________
Why go fast, when you can go slow.
BLOG: www.helplink.com/CLAFC
Mike OReilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 06:51   #5
Writing Full-Time Since 2014
 
thinwater's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Deale, MD
Boat: PDQ Altair, 32/34
Posts: 7,057
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
I donít understand the question.
Surely sailing is as social distancing as you can get?...



Actually, no. The club house is not socially distant. Racing is not socially distant; for most, the social aspect is why they race. Ask them. Sailing is distant for some cruisers, but not all cruisers.



The other part of the question is how do we convince others, including the government, that sailing CAN be socially distant.
__________________
Gear Testing--Engineering--Sailing
https://sail-delmarva.blogspot.com/
thinwater is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 06:53   #6
Writing Full-Time Since 2014
 
thinwater's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Deale, MD
Boat: PDQ Altair, 32/34
Posts: 7,057
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike OReilly View Post
... With all the "security" changes from 9/11, and now this, we might as well just show up at airports wearing nothing but hospital gowns and masks.

It's a good thing we'll be barefoot. I don't want to watch people bending over to untie their shoes!
__________________
Gear Testing--Engineering--Sailing
https://sail-delmarva.blogspot.com/
thinwater is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 06:55   #7
Marine Service Provider

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: St Augustine, FL
Boat: Woods Vardo 34 Cat
Posts: 3,483
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Peak in FL is now estimated to be May 3 and beaches open this weekend. So maybe later in May now. I'm not arguing. Just pointing out that it's going to be kinda nuts state by state. Trump told NY testing is too complicated and he doesn't want to get involved. So I guess the old fat people will continue to die. Lot of votes
__________________
@mojomarine1
Boatguy30 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 06:57   #8
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Austin, TX
Boat: Venture 25 / Tayana 37
Posts: 66
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Here's a good article about what the future might look like.

https://www.macleans.ca/society/scie...TBgx8uXIYYCqvM

It's from Canada, and as an American I can't imagine our insane politics allowing an intelligent solution like this, but here it is.

Here's the most relevant part, IMHO: "Every person infected with SARS-CoV-2 is a potential transmitter of infection, whether or not they are showing symptoms, which typically begin around the fifth day. Estimates vary, but each infected person is thought to pass the infection to around two or three others. This is called the basic reproductive number, or Ro, (pronounced “R-naught”) and so long as it remains above one, the epidemic is on an exponential up-slope.

The key to beating SARS-CoV-2 is to bring Ro down to below one and keep it there, meaning that each infected person passes the infection to fewer than one other. That puts the epidemic on a down-slope, until it flickers out. Everything—absolutely everything—else is distraction."
tradrockrat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 07:00   #9
Writing Full-Time Since 2014
 
thinwater's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Deale, MD
Boat: PDQ Altair, 32/34
Posts: 7,057
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleWing77 View Post
Well, here's a start: Boating Ontario's Suggested Best Practices for Marinas:

https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...7&d=1587214121


Yes, something like this!!
__________________
Gear Testing--Engineering--Sailing
https://sail-delmarva.blogspot.com/
thinwater is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 08:25   #10
Registered User
 
Mike OReilly's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Good question
Boat: Rafiki 37
Posts: 8,037
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by thinwater View Post
It's a good thing we'll be barefoot. I don't want to watch people bending over to untie their shoes!

__________________
Why go fast, when you can go slow.
BLOG: www.helplink.com/CLAFC
Mike OReilly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 08:52   #11
Writing Full-Time Since 2014
 
thinwater's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Deale, MD
Boat: PDQ Altair, 32/34
Posts: 7,057
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleWing77 View Post
Well, here's a start: Boating Ontario's Suggested Best Practices for Marinas:

Is there a version that is not locked against saving? I think this would be good to share.
__________________
Gear Testing--Engineering--Sailing
https://sail-delmarva.blogspot.com/
thinwater is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 09:01   #12
Registered User

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: New York, New York
Boat: Dufour Safari 27'
Posts: 1,398
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

There is another possibility that has been discussed by a number of virus specialists and epidemiologists but isn't politically correct, and that is the idea of herd immunity. Some are saying that the only way this goes away is when roughly 80% of the population are exposed.

IF this is true, it may be a moot point. That is what happened with the Spanish Flu. It lasted for approximately two years and went away. Whether this happens or not remains to be seen, but it is a possibility.

Until then, we need to continue to wash our hands, clean our stuff, and exercise caution around those at risk.
ArmyDaveNY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 09:27   #13
Registered User

Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 11
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

I just "SAVE TO PDF" and the file came into my computer - no problem.
kendalk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 09:45   #14
Registered User
 
LittleWing77's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 518
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by thinwater View Post
Is there a version that is not locked against saving? I think this would be good to share.
Sorry if it's locked... I didn't intend for that. Maybe it's the way Boating Ontario has set it up? I just looked at the www.boatingontario.ca website and it doesn't appear to have been posted - I suppose because it's their suggested guidelines for association members (which is how/why I received it; I and my employer are members).

Please feel free to PM your email address and I'll email you my copy of the pdf.

Best,
LittleWing77
LittleWing77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2020, 09:45   #15
Moderator
 
a64pilot's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Jacksonville/ out cruising
Boat: Island Packet 38
Posts: 29,925
Re: Just how do we go sailing again?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY View Post
There is another possibility that has been discussed by a number of virus specialists and epidemiologists but isn't politically correct, and that is the idea of herd immunity. Some are saying that the only way this goes away is when roughly 80% of the population are exposed.

IF this is true, it may be a moot point. That is what happened with the Spanish Flu. It lasted for approximately two years and went away. Whether this happens or not remains to be seen, but it is a possibility.

Until then, we need to continue to wash our hands, clean our stuff, and exercise caution around those at risk.
That’s what I was referring to earlier, the whole idea of flattering the curve isn’t what most people think it is, it’s not to seriously reduce the total number of people that get infected, it’s to spread out the rate of infection. So just as many will get sick but they will do so over a much longer period of time, this of course will lengthen the pandemic, but the hope is it won’t overwhelm the health care system, and there will be fewer deaths because of it.

But it gets more complicated than that, sometimes a virus simply mutates into basically a non virulent form, if I use the term correctly, there have been several corona viruses, this isn’t close to the first, so it possible it could mutate and pretty much simply go away like SARS did, of course it could go the other way too

Then it may be seasonal, now I have no idea but assume maybe the amount of UV radiation may reduce it, we may not be doing anything correctly but it may be reducing simply because of nature.

Someone mentioned the Spanish Flu, now this isn’t a flu, but I’d guess there are similarities, and the Spanish Flu and other Pandemics have come in waves, it looked to be licked and came back strong.

The Biack Death for example, it wasn’t a virus so it’s not the same, but I believe it came back eighteen times, so seventeen times it looked to be over and wasn’t.


No, so far as the question of how are we going to get back to sailing. That apparently wasn’t the question, apparently the question is how are we going to get back to being social seems to be the question.
I’d just as soon we didn’t myself, but then I’m a grumpy old man.
__________________

a64pilot is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
sail, sailing

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Frigoboat troubles,again and again... kamikater Plumbing Systems and Fixtures 11 25-12-2019 06:19
Just to Believe Again in Humanity... Syserenity Off Topic Forum 17 17-07-2013 12:37
Sometimes You Just Gotta Read the Instructions - Again! btrayfors Electrical: Batteries, Generators & Solar 2 02-09-2008 15:48
A born-again sailor just came aboard! Slangevar48 Meets & Greets 5 08-05-2008 05:05
i just set my paddock on fire (again) cooper Construction, Maintenance & Refit 25 17-03-2008 11:33

Advertise Here


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 21:50.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.