How to Judge Pandemic Policies

[GordMay]

How to judge pandemic policies

Dozens of efforts, to track interventions to curb the spread of COVID, have gathered mountains of data. At a workshop last month, and a public conference this week, scientists involved in 50 tracking databases, met, and discussed the mammoth task of compiling and analysing these data. “We still don’t know the best way to plug the data from the tracking systems into mathematical models,” says mathematical physicist Peter Klimek. “But the trackers are a unique treasure trove, that we can use to make epidemiological modelling a data-driven science, and to prepare for the next pandemic.”

“Which are the best pandemic policies? Data trackers are trying to judge” ~ by Quirin Schiermeier
“... When many countries applied various control measures simultaneously, we knew very little about the effects of government interventions. When more data became available, we found that curfews, cancellations of small gatherings and closures of schools, shops and restaurants were among the most effective policies.
But there is less agreement, when analysing different trackers, on how to rank these measures.

For example, it is not certain that highly restrictive measures are automatically more effective, than a smart mix of comparatively modest restrictions, and better timings of their implementation.
It is difficult to untangle the effects of any given measure from those of other policy interventions. ...”
Much more ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00590-2



“Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions” ~ by Nils Haug et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0



“Whose coronavirus strategy worked best? Scientists hunt most effective policies”
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01248-1




“COVID-19 PHSMs Data Coverage Conference” ➥ https://phsmconference.wordpress.com/

“A Dataset of Government Interventions in Response to COVID-19" ➥ https://covid19-interventions.com/

“The Oxford Supertracker”
A global directory of over 100 policy trackers and surveys related to COVID-19. ➥ https://supertracker.spi.ox.ac.uk/

“Tracking Public Health and Social Measures” ~ WHO ➥ https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...irus-2019/phsm

[thinwater]

... and to what extent do people do what they are asked?

I have assumed that one of the main reasons the US has done so poorly is that we are suborn and don't listen or do what we are told.

For example, small gatherings are a known problem, and people continued to gather away from the public eye, because they're kinna stupid that way.

For example, 70-95% of the people think a mask is to protect themselves. It is to protect the other guy.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by thinwater

... and to what extent do people do what they are asked?

I have assumed that one of the main reasons the US has done so poorly is that we are suborn and don't listen or do what we are told.

I believe there are good examples of the US pulling together as a nation in the face of crisis, so I don't think it's that. It has more to do with one party's leader deciding that his best move (for CYA and strategic reasons) was to downplay the severity of COVID and to openly mock the precautions.

But what's half a million olds, feebs and sickos, anyway? Survival of the fittest.

[JPA Cate]

^^^

OUCH! My, that hurts!

Did it ever occur to you that almost half of the Americans did not vote for the abovementioned party leader, deeply regret the unnecessary deaths, and grieve for the mess our country is in?

Do you think it is helpful to post in this fashion? to stir up more Canadian contempt for all the Yanks?

Guess I better bandage my computer keys, too. [couldn't find a weeping emoji]

Ann

[Uncle Bob]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I believe there are good examples of the US pulling together as a nation in the face of crisis, so I don't think it's that. It has more to do with one party's leader deciding that his best move (for CYA and strategic reasons) was to downplay the severity of COVID and to openly mock the precautions.

But what's half a million olds, feebs and sickos, anyway? Survival of the fittest.

I do hope that was written with a very large serving of cynicism.

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I believe there are good examples of the US pulling together as a nation in the face of crisis, so I don't think it's that. It has more to do with one party's leader deciding that his best move (for CYA and strategic reasons) was to downplay the severity of COVID and to openly mock the precautions.

But what's half a million olds, feebs and sickos, anyway? Survival of the fittest.

There you go Gord, we don't need to muck about with that statistical nonsense in order to ascertain what was an overall best response, the science is already settled mate.

[HeinSdL]

I think it's going too far. I have two kids sitting at home, one almost finishing school which is becoming a farce, the other trying to study something at a university which is effectively closed. Years, good years, being wasted here. Years which they won't get back either.

And it's just covid covid covid, that's all that matters now. For what? excess deaths are for sure positive (in NL though not in the last few weeks), but positive enough to waste all those years of youth? Doesn't that section of the population count as well?

I think if the community here (average age I estimate 50-60) could go back in time and were made to sit at home for a couple of years back when we were 18 we would be absolutely outraged.

And when the politicians say they are afraid of overrunning the hospitals: buy more ICUs. KLM received EUR4b the other day. May I ask why? Because it is the national flag carrier etc etc? (Actually the state is a large shareholder so of course the state would hate to see its investment go to waste). But EUR4b would have bought a lot of ICUs and staff, using the redundant hangars at Schiphol for space.

[DumnMad]

Hard to compare one country with another.
Some where the virus was late arriving were able to lock the borders and keep the virus out. e.g. NZ and Australia.
Au & NZ were in the Summer when it arrived. Europe were coming out of winter and in the Flu season.

Others like USA, UK, France, Italy etc already had many thousands spread through the country before anybody knew of its severity. New York as headquarters of international organisations didn't have a show.

On a deaths per million basis the US rate is not extreme and less than UK, Italy, Hungary, Portugal.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

OUCH! My, that hurts!

Did it ever occur to you that almost half of the Americans did not vote for the abovementioned party leader, deeply regret the unnecessary deaths, and grieve for the mess our country is in?

Do you think it is helpful to post in this fashion? to stir up more Canadian contempt for all the Yanks?

Yes I was being bitterly cynical/sarcastic. And echoing some of the CF comments skeptical or dismissive of the US COVID deaths.

I don't think that most Canadian CFers have contempt for Americans; I don't, and I count myself lucky to have several American friends. But the fact that the two parties and their followers couldn't pull together even for COVID, and the seeming indifference to the death toll... confounds me.

Anyway, more on point, it might still be too early to fairly judge and compare pandemic policies... we aren't quite finished yet. I'd reserve judgment til there's near global vaccination, and travel is back.

[boatman61]

The Captain Hindsight's are gathering once more..

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by HeinSdL

I think it's going too far. I have two kids sitting at home, one almost finishing school which is becoming a farce, the other trying to study something at a university which is effectively closed. Years, good years, being wasted here. Years which they won't get back either.
...
I think if the community here (average age I estimate 50-60) could go back in time and were made to sit at home for a couple of years back when we were 18 we would be absolutely outraged.

And when the politicians say they are afraid of overrunning the hospitals: buy more ICUs.

I initially had much the same thoughts around ICUs. Many would agree with your assessment that it's been too harsh, but we don't really have the fine-grained control over infection numbers that make it possible to get to "just right". So the choices really were for "too restricted" or "not restricted enough".

I definitely feel sorry for the young people who've received setbacks. If us older folks truly care for the young, we should campaign for increased numbers of apprenticeships and internships, and for more career-focused education that's inexpensive or free.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I initially had much the same thoughts around ICUs. Many would agree with your assessment that it's been too harsh, but we don't really have the fine-grained control over infection numbers that make it possible to get to "just right". So the choices really were for "too restricted" or "not restricted enough".

I definitely feel sorry for the young people who've received setbacks. If us older folks truly care for the young, we should campaign for increased numbers of apprenticeships and internships, and for more career-focused education that's inexpensive or free.

I have noticed 'Social Media Influencers' have grown enormously in numbers over the past year..

[HeinSdL]

Originally Posted by boatman61

The Captain Hindsight's are gathering once more..

If only we were looking back and saying 'oh my, how we could/should have done things differently!'. We are not looking back (yet) and measures are getting more severe.

But you know, I am not the one suffering. Being in a service industry my job is quite fine, from home. My life is good so yeah what do I care. Well, I just feel damn sorry for the kids, students who can't afford to study anymore (which in any case happens solely online in their room) due to casual job having disappeared or to go out and meet new friends, small café owners who won't be opening their café anymore, women & kids suffering much more from domestic violence, the list goes on. (Do we even realise how many kids are happy to go to school or how many women like to go to community centres just to get some respite from horrific conditions at home?)

And then not to speak about new laws which have been introduced to curtail freedoms. Those laws won't be undone in a hurry.

So when we judge pandemic policies, for sure look at the infection rates & excess deaths. But also look at the costs incurred to make those successes come about.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by boatman61

The Captain Hindsight's are gathering once more.

"What experience and history teach is this - that people and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it." ~ G. W. F. Hegel

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history.” ~ Aldous Huxley

They say a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, but it's not one half so bad as a lot of ignorance. In fact, gross ignorance is 144 times worse, than ordinary ignorance.
Would you have us join the church of organised ignorance? After all, why waste time learning, when ignorance is instantaneous?

[HeinSdL]

I read an article just recently, which draws parallels between the covid crisis and earlier crises, with the parallel being that the current crisis (so covid) supersedes everything else and civil obedience is needed in tandem with unquestioned political leadership.


This in the name of the greater public good. Earlier example from which to learn:


The Prohibition
The Dreyfus Affair
Vietnam War
Nazi's & Communists 1920 - 1945
and others


The difference with covid though is that the public 'bad' (ie psychological damage and lost years for the youth) I mentioned in an earlier post is swept under the carpet.


This is the English version of what I read.


https://clubtroppo.com.au/2021/01/08...e-covid-mania/


By all means don't agree with a word the article says, but do keep reflecting on what is going on. This is not a good time to hand out a free pass to any government.