How SARS-CoV-2 spreads: new science

[larsfforsberg]

I've seen people wearing masks in their car! Hilarious! Even funnier, I've seen people driving their car with a mask on and texting! Wow! What do you think is more likely to kill you, some highly suspect virus that harms a infinity small portion of the population, or texting while driving on icy roads?


Worse, I've seen smokers wearing a mask. This almost makes me poop my pants! You SMOKE! Cigarettes will absolutely kill you. It is very unlikely that covid will, no make that extremely, extremely unlikely. Hahahahaha

[joelhemington]

Any modern hospital will have a separate air supply system for their surgery rooms or at least a viral guard system (which also can be purchased for residential HVAC systems) so the existence of Covid patients in the facility would not be an issue. Due to the exertion this pandemic has put on hospital staff, much elective surgery is not being offered at this time to preserve the capability of facilities to perform critical surgeries.

[NedX]

Originally Posted by larsfforsberg

I've seen people wearing masks in their car! Hilarious! Even funnier, I've seen people driving their car with a mask on and texting! Wow! What do you think is more likely to kill you, some highly suspect virus that harms a infinity small portion of the population, or texting while driving on icy roads?


Worse, I've seen smokers wearing a mask. This almost makes me poop my pants! You SMOKE! Cigarettes will absolutely kill you. It is very unlikely that covid will, no make that extremely, extremely unlikely. Hahahahaha

Driving alone in your car alone with your window open is one of the safest things you can do without a mask.

But if that driver were an Uber driver who makes frequent pickups, or someone picking up someone not who is not in their bubble, the mask is a welcome precaution. No joke.

As for the COVID-19 infection/mortality rate, you can get good numbers by playing around with this site. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Total infections is almost certainly a drastic understatement in countries that do not have widespread testing and contact tracing, since it's clear so many infected people are presymptomatic when transmitting (this is where the "it's not likely to kill you" thing comes from.)

COVID-19 definitely doesn't have the mortality rate of the coronavirus-borne diseases we basically eradicated, SARS (10%) and MERS (I think it's above 30%!), but it's high enough, and the lasting conditions for some who recover are bad enough (loss of smell or taste for months?) that I'd rather not contract it. Or transmit SARS-CoV-2 to my 84-year-old mother.

[NedX]

Originally Posted by bjp447

I will bet Dr Fauci has a forum where you can discuss this till your hearts content
So can you go there so we can go back to boats. BTW if you just watch the news someone on some channel is pontificating about this study and a 100 others every day!

Or just don't click on a thread in the COVID-19 section of this forum, such as this one. If I weren't interested in the subject, that's what I'd do.

[Capt. Lace]

Originally Posted by MrChris

The point for me is that it means that it is not safe for anyone to be in any enclosed space, regardless of recommendations. The new strain is vaguely described as consider ably more infectious, does this mean airborne transmission???

Fact is you gotta 99.8% chance of survival. Fear mongering is the devils work. STAY IN YOUR. HOME IF YOUR SO SCARED

[NedX]

Originally Posted by Capt. Lace

Fact is you gotta 99.8% chance of survival. Fear mongering is the devils work. STAY IN YOUR. HOME IF YOUR SO SCARED

Epidemiology is a scientist's work.

Best wishes to you and yours for the holidays, Cap.

Also, boating is one of the best things you can do.

[larsfforsberg]

Exactly! If you are afraid to leave your house, stay home. I think I already had it, it was not great, fever for almost two weeks. But theoretically I should have some level of immunity. I don't wear a mask, because I'm a "denier" I guess....hahaha. The mask is a crock in my opinion, which I can find plenty of studies to back up. Of course if you are a mask wearing nut job, I know you can find studies to back your opinion - and that's fine. You wear your Halloween mask if you want, if that makes you feel great, safe, smart - or superior, whatever. I'll take my chances.

[NedX]

Originally Posted by larsfforsberg

Exactly! If you are afraid to leave your house, stay home. I think I already had it, it was not great, fever for almost two weeks. But theoretically I should have some level of immunity. I don't wear a mask, because I'm a "denier" I guess....hahaha. The mask is a crock in my opinion, which I can find plenty of studies to back up. Of course if you are a mask wearing nut job, I know you can find studies to back your opinion - and that's fine. You wear your Halloween mask if you want, if that makes you feel great, safe, smart - or superior, whatever. I'll take my chances.

Glad you recovered. Best wishes to you and yours for the holidays, Cap.

[NedX]

You know, seeing some of the arguments developing on this thread, I'm going to stop posting on it before it deteriorates into something it was not intended to be.

I shared the O.P. not to persuade anyone to do or think something; I merely wanted to share something new for people who might find it useful. A few thanked me, so I'm glad I did.

Before I go, I will share some perspective as one who's job requires the study of epidemiology. And it has a seafaring component!

We are not in a unique situation with Covid-19. The divisions over how to respond, and how serious it is, are nothing new in the history of pandemics.

No pandemic ever has been greeted with uniform ideas on how to stop it; never has society been united in following the advice of scientists/doctors/public health authorities, especially advice that's disruptive to normal conduct of people's daily affairs.

With any newly discovered disease, it's normal for those authorities to get things wrong at first and give bad advice based on what they knew about previous outbreaks before figuring out the new bug/virus/disease. This can and does sow the kind of mistrust and contempt evident in some of the posts I see in this thread.

I would also add that when society does come together on a solution that works, that's when the disease is defeated.

And if you are of European descent, you may owe your life to that notion.

For it was during one particular deadly outbreak sweeping through the continent that Milanese authorities realized that if they make potentially infected populations isolate themselves before entering the city—especially crews of ships coming into port from far-off places—whether or not they displayed symptoms, they could stop the spread of the disease.

At first, the Milanese leaders decided it should be a 30-day period, to which they attached the diminutive name derived from the word for 30: un trentino. That seemed to be the safe period after which, if a person did not display symptoms, they clearly were not going to transmit the disease.

But then, perhaps because of the religious significance of 40 days in Christianity, they decided that a 40-day period was better.

Un quarantino.

Not everybody liked it at first. It didn't always work (the port of Ragusa, despite quarantine, still suffered a devastating outbreak.)

But as the practice spread, that's how the outbreak was eventually controlled, and stopped.

And that, fellow sailors, is how European civilization survived the Black Death, the 14-century outbreak of the bubonic plague.

On that note, best wishes and good health to you and yours, for the holidays, and beyond. -NedX

[DISCLAIMER: The above anecdote is not intended as a statement comparing the severity of Covid-19 to the bubonic plague. It is merely a parable with a happy ending.]

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by darylat8750

Does soap kill virus ?

As Weevis noted, soap inactivates the virus (but not bacteria), as well as facilitating it's removal.
The virus is a self-assembled nanoparticle, in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer. Soap dissolves the fat membrane, and the virus falls apart and dies (actually, it becomes inactive, as viruses aren’t really alive).

Soap contains fat-like substances known as amphiphiles, some of which are structurally very similar to the lipids in the virus membrane. The soap molecules “compete” with the lipids in the virus membrane. This is more or less how soap also removes normal dirt from the skin. The soap not only loosens the bond between the virus and the skin, but also the Velcro-like interactions that hold the proteins, lipids and RNA in the virus together.

[GordMay]

“The 2nd Covid-19 wave in South Africa: Transmissibility & a 501.V2 variant”
Scientists have identified another new variant of the coronavirus in two people, both of whom are contacts of recent arrivals from South Africa.
The evidence gathered so far suggests that the new variant has "mutated further" than the one that recently prompted the British government to tighten restrictions across large parts of England, and led to many countries imposing travel bans on the U.K.
➥ https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...ress-briefing/

“A new virus variant ‘501.V2’ from South Africa has been identified in some COVID-19 cases in the UK recently. This new South African variant is described in this presentation, which cites a paper in Cell (Tyler N et al. 2020).
➥ https://www.scribd.com/document/4886...by-SSAK-18-Dec

[GordMay]

And this makes (at least) 4 ...
Africa CDC: New virus variant appears to emerge in Nigeria
NAIROBI, Kenya — Another new variant of the coronavirus appears to have emerged in Nigeria, Africa’s top public health official said Thursday, but further investigation is needed.
“It’s a separate lineage from the UK and South Africa,” the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, told reporters.
The alert about the apparent new variant was based on two or three genetic sequences, he said, but that and South Africa’s alert late last week were enough to prompt an emergency meeting of the Africa CDC this week.
More ➥ https://apnews.com/article/internati...654f03fbfb2b20

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by NedX

I run into people every day who are still protecting themselves by disinfecting surfaces and keeping six feet. Re: "Always known" health agencies did not publicly acknowledge aerosolized transmission until September.

I hope no-one takes your information to mean that masks, distancing or surface disinfection has been useless. Apparently, the extent of infection through aerosolized virus was not immediately recognized. But infection from droplets and from surfaces is still a thing, so basic masks and maintaining distance are still useful in many circumstances. Anyone in healthcare or food preparation knows that surface disinfection is important for 100 other reasons besides COVID.

By all means people should be aware that closed indoor spaces with conventional air handling increase the risk of COVID spreading from an infected person. Because we can't rework every HVAC system, the only alternative is to avoid such public indoor spaces as much as possible.

Originally Posted by NedX

You know, seeing some of the arguments developing on this thread, I'm going to stop posting on it before it deteriorates into something it was not intended to be.
...
No pandemic ever has been greeted with uniform ideas on how to stop it; never has society been united in following the advice of scientists/doctors/public health authorities, especially advice that's disruptive to normal conduct of people's daily affairs.

Well, the rise of the kooks is just one more reason why the most effective and successful pandemic response is a swift and hard one, to catch it before unchecked community spread takes hold, and disruption is minimised. Some countries did just that. Which means that we all should be able to do that too. Next time, maybe.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I hope no-one takes your information to mean that masks, distancing or surface disinfection has been useless...
... Well, the rise of the kooks is just one more reason why the most effective and successful pandemic response is a swift and hard one, to catch it before unchecked community spread takes hold, and disruption is minimised. Some countries did just that. Which means that we all should be able to do that too. Next time, maybe.

Indeed.
NZ, for instance ➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...my-243934.html

[darylat8750]

Originally Posted by NedX

Here's the scientific explanation of why washing with soap for 20 seconds works.

https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/0...from-covid-19/

Of course soap only helps clean your hands and prevents you from touching your eyes/nose/mouth with a contaminated hand (which is not the primary way SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted.)

Thanks! A good explanation. I was told that soap doesn't really kill virus, it does send them down the drain. It is a little more complicated than that....