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Old 19-03-2020, 04:13   #1
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Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

So after planning for several years, which included learning to sail, save a shed load of money to buy a boat and go cruising, I eventually reach my goal and am ready to set sail and head off from Australia slowly to the Med, but the proverbial has hit the fan and now I am not going anywhere for the foreseeable future, I just have this serious nagging feeling that things could have panned out so differently……..


Imagine if the media had reported on a daily basis the death rate from the winter 2016/17 Flu epidemic in Italy or the 2017/18 epidemic in the USA.


Italy had 24,981 attributable deaths to Flu and the USA 61,000 attributable deaths to Flu, although these figures were probably higher, as for anyone over 18 there is no burden on doctors to test for flu as a cause of death and many deaths were attributed to secondary causes such as pneumonia.


The flu season is around 5 months long, so for Italy that is 166 deaths per day every day for 5 months and for the States its 460 per day, although in reality at the beginning and end of the season those rates would have been minimal and substantially higher at the peaks.


Throw into this the reporting of deaths for every other country in the world (the flu is a pandemic EVERY YEAR) and the figures would be huge and you would get what we have today for the current virus – Mass panic and widespread fear, but that did not occur and life went on.


I am not taking away from the current situation, but rather trying to put it into perspective – The current flu season in the States is a low risk one, with currently 22,000 attributable deaths to the flu, which is still pretty huge and we hear no mention of that in the media.



To put things into real perspective, a child under the age of 5 dies from lack food/nutrition approximately every 10 seconds that’s almost 10,000 (TEN THOUSAND!!) per day or 3.1 million per year, yet there is no mention in the media or no worldwide outrage or panic for something which is 100% preventable.


On the flip side, there will be repercussions and consequences from our current actions, the mass hysteria has pushed governments into making some very ground breaking decisions, which will have consequence on the way we interact in the future and paves the way for a whole host of laws, all of them you can guarantee will not be beneficial for your personal freedoms.



Lastly the actions of the world’s governments have the very real chance of collapsing the world economy and if this happens, the death toll created by this will dwarf anything that could ever occur from this virus.


End of Rant…..
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Old 19-03-2020, 04:35   #2
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Re: New forum for Covid-19 Topics - README

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisr View Post
a question ; is anybody aware of ANYBODY, ANYWHERE in the world, dying of corvin19 who was not already in a high risk group ie with impaired immune system, co-morbidity, chronic illnesses etc etc

i believe the answer is NO, however will be happy to be corrected

cheers,
Belief without facts is dangerous.

Here's a recent article on cases in the US.
Quote:
The new data show that up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit.
Regardless of actual deaths by age to date, the danger, as noted almost everywhere, is that if the higher-risk cases overwhelm our health-care systems, then everyone will receive less or no care, when they get sick with the virus or anything else life-threatening.

To me, the most concerning thing in that article was the current uncertainty in US stats.
Quote:
The CDC analysis counts U.S. cases from Feb. 12 to March 16; 4,226 were reported to CDC. Starting on March 14, however, numbers were rising 500 or more per day, and many cases have not been counted or even identified because of a dearth of coronavirus tests. An analysis by researchers at the University of Notre Dame estimates that, at the time President Trump declared a national emergency last week, there were probably about 22,876 U.S. cases, with the true number almost certainly between 7,451 and 53,044.

The CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.
... um, seriously?
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Old 19-03-2020, 04:41   #3
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

The perspective offered is mostly narrow, nuanced, and lacking foresight withstanding ample evidence towards that purpose. Doubtful that an adequate prescription to remedy this perspective can be given that isn't pages and pages of information long that must be willfully synthesized into the current perception; not the place for such eye/mind doctoring here.

But agreed about the lack of consideration for the perennial loss of lives due to malnutrition, lack of sanitary living conditions, safe drinking water an the like. Maybe the media doesn't ordinarily report on those issues because it'd make people feel guilty about stuff life their yachting/modern conspicuous consumption lifestyle such that no one would watch the news if issues of the poor were routinely reported on...and news people would go out of business.

In other words, this is how the world works.
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Old 19-03-2020, 05:08   #4
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

Ordinary influenza kills about 0.1 percent of confirmed cases, which is still a lot given the millions exposed each year. This coronavirus appears to kill 3 percent of cases. Computer modeling predicts roughly 1.1 million deaths in the United States alone if it freely infects our population. Predictions are predictions, but best estimates are for more deaths in the US than we lost in the civil war, WW1, WW2, Korea, and Vietnam combined. That is not ordinary flu.
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Old 19-03-2020, 05:18   #5
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

Quote:
Originally Posted by UFO View Post
I am not taking away from the current situation, but rather trying to put it into perspective – The current flu season in the States is a low risk one, with currently 22,000 attributable deaths to the flu, which is still pretty huge and we hear no mention of that in the media.

To put things into real perspective, a child under the age of 5 dies from lack food/nutrition approximately every 10 seconds that’s almost 10,000 (TEN THOUSAND!!) per day or 3.1 million per year, yet there is no mention in the media or no worldwide outrage or panic for something which is 100% preventable.
To put the COVID-19 pandemic in perspective... you can't yet put it into perspective. The governments are being very coy about projected number of deaths, because... it's kind of big. We are in the 'doing' part of this pandemic, so it's not really productive to begin the post-game analysis.

This article touches on it a bit, but anyone can come up with a similar estimate: just take some existing annual death numbers for the flu, multiply by COVID-19's comparable lethality (~10x that of the flu), then ponder the fact that there's some herd immunity to the flu (from vaccines and from having it before) whereas there's zero immunity to COVID-19.

We get that your cruise has been cancelled, and like many of us, your current gut feeling is that COVID-19 not going to kill YOU, so what's the big deal?

By the fall you'll have a better idea of what the big deal is/was.

Quote:
On the flip side, there will be repercussions and consequences from our current actions, the mass hysteria has pushed governments into making some very ground breaking decisions, which will have consequence on the way we interact in the future and paves the way for a whole host of laws, all of them you can guarantee will not be beneficial for your personal freedoms.

Lastly the actions of the world’s governments have the very real chance of collapsing the world economy and if this happens, the death toll created by this will dwarf anything that could ever occur from this virus.
Mmmm, no. We're trying to prevent or reduce what could be 10s of millions of deaths globally.

Is there a possible upside to this? Well, when we come through the other side of this and the economy revs up again, we'll have a better sense of how resilient we are, and that there is absolutely no reason, economic or otherwise, why any human should ever be without the necessities of life.
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Old 19-03-2020, 05:21   #6
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Re: New forum for Covid-19 Topics - README

Chinese researchers set out to look at the impact of the disease on children younger than 18 years, so they analyzed data from Jan. 16 to Feb. 8 on 2,143 children in China. The team reported its findings on March 16, 2020.
About 4% of children were asymptomatic, 51% had mild illness and 39% had moderate illness. About 6% had severe or critical illness, compared to 18.5% of adults. And in an unexplained finding, nearly 11% of the Covid-19 cases in infants were severe or critical, though no babies died. An important caveat, however, is that some of what doctors believed to be Covid-19 might have been another respiratory disease, including respiratory syncytial virus, which is known to cause severe illness in children.
One child, a 14-year-old boy, died.
“Epidemiology of COVID-19 Among Children in China” ~ by Dong Y, et al. (Pediatrics, March 16, 2020)
https://pediatrics.aappublications.o...-0702.full.pdf __________________
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Old 19-03-2020, 05:26   #7
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Re: New forum for Covid-19 Topics - README

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

Below are chinas numbers, though numbers from Italy are twice as high if not more!



*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old

8.0%
60-69 years old

3.6%
50-59 years old

1.3%
40-49 years old

0.4%
30-39 years old

0.2%
20-29 years old

0.2%
10-19 years old

0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
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Old 19-03-2020, 05:47   #8
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

To try and keep this related to cruising before it inevitably decends into a political squabble and gets closed: lots of cruisers are being affected by CV.

In our case, since the crisis started while we were already out cruising, our regular cruising season was not cancelled, but it has been modified significantly. We are in full on Corona Virus Zombie Apocalypse isolation mode. We stocked up on about a month's worth of provisions and fuel and headed for remote anchorages.

In one remote anchorage, seldom visited by cruisers, there is a small village ashore. We were asked to leave due to CV fears. At least the villagers didnt show up with pitchforks and torches! (Well, here it would be machetes and torches).


We had planned to cruise the San Blas again this season, but entry to the San Blas is now officially closed.

We've had no direct contact with humans for about a week now. My social needs are not very high so Im enjoying it: snorkelling, UW photography, boat projects, reading, etc...with no pesky social commitment interruptions. My wife: not so much. As yet there are no reported cases of CV in this area of Panama or where we live ashore...so we may head home while we still can...otherwise my wife is concerned we may be stuck here thru rainy season if travel restrictions are impossed.

So, how have the rest of you been affected?
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Old 19-03-2020, 06:51   #9
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

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Originally Posted by belizesailor View Post
.....
So, how have the rest of you been affected?
Hunkered down in a marina on a small island with a cl resort closed due to goverenment ordered shutdown of non-esential business in Malaysia. No yachts are allowed into Malaysia and most inter state movement is prohibited. We have a ton of stores onboard as we were setup to cross the Indian Ocean. Maybe next year. The good thing is that this is a duty free port and decent gin is usd10 a bottle.
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Old 19-03-2020, 06:59   #10
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

Well, I'm glad to report that the telemarketers haven't been affected yet. Just got a call.

But to really put things in perspective, this is an inconvenience for most of us. A first-world problem, if you will. I, for one, am willing to do my part. How often are we really called upon to make a tangible contribution to the welfare of the whole human race?

Yeah, I also had some big plans which are likely not going to work out. But this is much, much bigger.
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Old 19-03-2020, 07:03   #11
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

If this epidemic follows the predictions of the experts it will kill as many as died in WW2 worldwide. The Imperial College report places the US death toll at 1.1m to 2.2m and that is in a first world country. Imagine how Africa, South America, Indonesia, etc. will fare. Because we are in the very beginning stage of this, numbers like this look impossible and unbelievable. They are not and if you think so, bookmark this post and pull it back up in July. If I’m still around I’ll admit I overreacted.

It is folly to suggest that the methods of fighting this, lockdowns and strict social distancing, will kill as many as the disease.
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Old 19-03-2020, 07:13   #12
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

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Originally Posted by Woodland Hills View Post
If this epidemic follows the predictions of the experts it will kill as many as died in WW2 worldwide.

Unlike WW II, the world's countries seem to be working together (more or less), and we aren't spending a big(ger) chunk of our wealth making war machines. So if the world economy could recover from WW II, it can certainly recover from this.
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Old 19-03-2020, 07:25   #13
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

We are anchored out in the Bay Islands of Honduras. We are under Marshall Law and everything is shut down, nobody coming in a nobody allowed out for 14 days in our area.
There are other boats here as well although we are sort of keeping to ourselves. Unfortunately we are not even allowed to take a walk on the beach which we enjoy to stretch our legs each day. Still diving and snorkeling and we have toilet paper so all is well.

As far as comparing the coronvirus to the flue..probably not a great comparison. I can get a flue vaccine and then I need not worry about it...don't have that option with coronvirus and that's beside the fact that this new virus kills at spectacularly higher rates of the flue..nope not comparable in my mind. Once a vaccine is available then I'll worry about the coronvirus as much as I worry about the flue.
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Old 19-03-2020, 07:39   #14
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

A good site for the numbers:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Old 19-03-2020, 07:55   #15
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Re: Epidemics, Pandemics, the Media and Cruising

A difference between flu and Covid-19 is that a relatively large percentage of the population has immunity from a given strain of the flu. As far as we know, no one has immunity from Covid-19

Most countries have the facilities in place to handle the yearly flu cases that require hospitalization - even in a "bad" flu year. With Covid-19, we risk thousands of people dying because there will not be enough ventilators available.

I find this an interesting moral test. For someone under about the age of 50 with no respiratory disease, the chance of dying of Covid-19 is vanishingly small.

For them - from a selfish perspective - the expedient things would be to quickly get the virus and have it over with - gaining lifetime immunity. But if everyone took this selfish approach, it would kill thousands or millions of elderly. It's an encouraging sign of our shared humanity that so many are willing to care about their fellow man not just themselves.
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