Covid vaccines: risk vs benefit alarming news

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Stephen_MO

Hi Montanan, I am with you on the diet and exercise tied to benefits. That said, I would suggest you consider some other factors regarding dismissing employees regarding Covid issues. I do data analytics for a living, my wife is a physician specializing in obesity, diabetes, my daughter is also a physician and my best friend is an immunology physician. We have dinner bi-weekly, an as you would expect, this conversation comes up and did again last night. They are pro-vaccine (as you would expect) but one thing they both strongly hold, based on taking a *strictly scientific/clinical perspective* on the data that is available to them (and that I have reviewed and also analyzed), is that people who have been *proven* by test to have had and recovered from covid19 have robust immune response such that the numbers of absolutely proven covid reinfection in the US is significantly smaller than things like the number of people struck by lightning every year. To be sure there are other people who have had Covid reinfection that just weren't caught in testing, but what data there is suggests reinfected people are almost always asymptomatic (from a danger to themselves is typically minimal standpoint) and functionally indistinguishable from the 100 Million+ people in the US who are 25 and under and typically asymptomatic (from a danger to others standpoint)...in which population, Covid 19 reinfections are not even a split percent of a rounding error. They also noted that SARS and some other prior coronavirus exposure seem to mostly convey immunity to Covid 19...basically this virus seems to respond well to natural immunity and be nothing special, to say the least, regarding reinfection. Also on the good news front, it seems that although Covid is mutating (virus have a fragile DNA copying mechanism), that true to norms for viruses, those mutations are often more infectious, but also tend to be less lethal (the news is not going to tell you that btw) so they tend to be a natural mechanism to propagate immunity with lessening legality. If viruses didn't tend to work like this, humans would have been extinct long ago. All that said, my wife has had *BOTH* vaccines and is also post-Covid and her work says that she still has to wear a mask and social distance from other staff (also vaccinated and mostly post Covid) "for safety", in a non-clinical office setting...which everyone in the discussion agreed that there is zero scientific/medical basis for and ridiculous on it face...because large swaths of this have become political. So for you, as a fellow business owner, I would gently suggest that you 1) should look into the *raw* data (not news, not CDC) yourself before you fire any of your (provably) post-Covid employees who claim immunity from Covid, because the data I am seeing suggest they are almost certainly on solid scientific ground that, for them, masks and wearing and social distancing serves political/aesthetic, but no Covid related purpose.

Thank you for your thoughtful guidance. We will operate under various government sources and non-government guidance. Presently, the guidance is that those that have had COVID, is that they all receive vaccination to boost their immunity above their natural state of immunity. The titer count goes drastically higher with the administration of the vaccine.

As to the variants, of which there are many, specific ones are proving to be problematic. They can be considerably more contagious and / or virulent.
As Dr. Anthony Fauci had to clarify yesterday to Senator Rand Paul regarding the need for continuing to wear masks after either having had the disease and / or having been vaccinated, people can remain infectious and can be contagious, and they themselves can be infected. And such people can be reinfected by "new variants of the virus, such as the B.1.1.7 variant first seen in Britain and the B.1.351 variant first seen in South Africa, are spreading more widely and may elude the immune response prompted by a previous infection. Fauci noted at the hearing at least one study showed people in South Africa who had been infected with older strains of coronavirus had almost no immune protection against B.1.351." The neutralizing antibody response of some vaccines to specific variants can be drastically reduced compared to the original wild-type [or the type that the vaccine was specifically designed to neutralize], by from ads much 4 to 8 to 10 fold reduction.

The P-1 variant in Brazil appears to have high probability of reinfection of those that have previously had wild-type COVID-19 infection and such variant has renewed a massive resurgence of infections in Brazil, even in places which were thought to have reached herd immunity from having experienced a massive first wave of infections.

This SARS virus with variants is likely going to be endemic and it is highly unlikely that any vaccine will prove to be a sterilizing vaccine which eliminates the virus from a vaccinated person [the measles vaccine is about the only vaccine that seems to have that potentiality or near to that potentiality].

So we will expect our employees to be vaccinated and to be revaccinated on an ongoing basis as new vaccines or boosters are availed. We will pay for such procedures, pay for time and travel and for sick leave if they feel off after having taken the vaccine.

We have evaluated theological objections to vaccinations and have ascertained the denominations for which we will not require vaccination as a condition for employment. We have ascertained that the following religions have no fundamental objections:
Buddhism
Hinduism
Jainism
Judaism
Christianity, largely no objections, albeit there is a preference as to the choice of use of vaccines that have been produced using human mammalian cell lines NOT derived from aborted fetuses. That makes AstraZeneca and Jansen vaccines to be the not preferred choice if an alternative vaccine is available and we will fully support that choice and accommodate a deferral of vaccination to avail the alternative vaccine. Has not yet been a challenging issue, in the USA or the UK because Pfizer Biotech and Moderna vaccines are mRNA and are available in those countries.
The following denominations do have fundamental theological objection to vaccination:

Dutch Reformed Congregations - This denomination has a tradition of declining immunizations. Some members decline vaccination on the basis that it interferes with divine providence. However, others within the faith accept immunization as a gift from God to be used with gratitude.
Faith healing denominations including:
Faith Tabernacle
Church of the First Born
Faith Assembly
End Time Ministrie
Church of Christ, Scientist

Beliefs are complex and individualistic, we never oversimplify such and hold great respect for each person's. The above is merely a generalization and with such limitations in mindfulness.

This policy becomes more challenging when we extend it to be a requirement that third parties be vaccinated in order to be availed direct contact with our personnel and facilities.

But that will be similar to the requirement that my daughter and fiancée are intending to implement for attendance to their wedding scheduled for this October. One is invited by them, with a stipulation. As father of the bride, I will be fully jabbed, wouldn't miss that occasion. They specifically delayed their wedding in anticipation that everyone of their family and friends should have been availed the opportunity to be fully vaccinated by that time. There being some teenagers and youngsters who will not be vaccinated as the vaccines will not be approved by that time of the early Fall but which will be welcomed to attend.

There will be exemptions for unique medical situations, known severe allergies, as to pregnancy - that will be the mother's choice with encouragement of having medical professional consultations. We already routinely implement additional safeguards for childbearing women. Heck at my former biotechnology employer, a pregnant person was disallowed to even go to the floors or wings where research was taking place; they were reassigned to desk research or administrative duties through their gestation and for considerable time after delivery. I recall the company suspending the further development of human contraceptive vaccines [one targeted for women and another for men] because all four of the principle lady scientist became pregnant, all within about one year into the early stages of R&D, so each of them was precluded from having any hands on lab activities. We kidded that well what ever they were working on seem to do just the opposite of its intended action, but perhaps they were onto something that would enhance fertility which could be a different but very worthy pharmaceutical advancement. BTW, the contraceptive vaccines were intended to be reversible by use of select hormone therapies so as to avail a person to become fertile yet again if they desired to have children. 40+% of our scientists were women, almost all of which were of childbearing age, so lengthy periods of pregnancy reassignment was a routine and anticipated practice. As part of our managerial planning we would regularly ask them if they were planning to become pregnant and have the flexibility of resourcing secondary personnel and schedule for swapping personnel from desk to lab activities. Family planning and work planning linked closely and carefully together.

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by boatman61

You totally missed my point re Mac's etc.. its their excessive consumption that has created the over 40% obesity levels in the US and 62% overweight in the UK.. it is the resulting co-morbidities that are the cause of the high death rates that Covid brings..
So as far as your concerned healthy people should be penalized and forced to comply just so you and others can maintain your unhealthy lifestyle.. the American way, don't improve your lifestyle, just take some drugs.
As for being excluded by society.. I am well used to being treated like a pariah because I enjoy tobacco.. because of sphincters snapping over ridiculous fears from secondhand smoke..
But hey.. Just another threat..

Well that's got to be one of your more ridiculous posts. You may generally be a healthy person and not obese or have any other co-morbidities but you could still be infected with covid and be broadcasting it to those less fortunate than you or I regarding general good health and immunity. Yes, obesity is an issue (not for me, btw) for many in the US but it's not the only one that tends to make folks vulnerable to serious damage or death from Covid. Even college athletes have died of it! Besides, we're discussing a worldwide problem, not one limited to overweight Americans.

I also don't take any drugs other than a very occasional ibuprofen and a skin cream to help with keratosis from sun damage, so please don't suggest that I'm an advocate for fixing all our problems with drugs OR that I have an unhealthy lifestyle (how would you know?). I'm very far from that but instead of addressing what I actually advocate for and write, you attempt to paint me as a member of some stereotypical American that's easy to disagree with. It might be an effective tactic but it's dishonest and rather pathetic.

Poor little boatie feeling sorry for himself for being treated as a tobacco pariah.. As far as your suggestion that second hand smoke isn't really a problem, that's a total rationalization of YOUR unhealthy lifestyle choice. My uncle, a non smoker, died of lung cancer about 2 weeks before his wife, who was a lifetime smoker, died of other causes before her emphysema could get her. I completely support your right to smoke or eat big macs or do anything else you want to do to yourself. But I don't think it's very considerate of you to not take any steps possible to decrease the chances of you being the one who's broadcasting covid germs that could come in contact with a vulnerable person, whether they are obese or a smoker or have any other risk factors you have no way of being aware of. You may think you're healthy and if there was any way to instantaneously determine the moment you become Covid contagious, I'd support your right to not get vaccinated if at the first indication of covid, you totally isolated yourself. But the reality is that there's no way for any of us to be sure of the exact moment when we catch covid and become contagious to others so wearing a mask to prevent broadcasting our exhalations such a long distance and getting vaccinated is what we're left with to prevent the spread of this deadly disease. Your covid philosophy sounds a LOT like Donald Trump used to sound before he caught covid and had quite a scare, and now even HE is recommending for people to get vaccinated. So, how does it feel to be even more Trumpier than Trump himself?

Not sure what to think of your 'snapping sphincters' comment except that I can't say I'm surprised it's a concept you seem to be familiar with....

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Well, 20k COVID deaths/yr isn't 125,926 deaths (current UK count after about a year). If the virus is mutating to a more contagious but less harmful form, and vaccines reduce severity and contagiousness, and treatments continue to improve, we could see COVID settle back to just another flu. That's closer to manageable.

But.. Unlike the flu a Mandatory annual jab if you want to go to the grocers..
If you remember 20K was the original UK estimate for deaths this time last year..

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by boatman61

But.. Unlike the flu a Mandatory annual jab if you want to go to the grocers..

... for this year, maybe. You might also find that flu deaths and illness were down so much this year that the flu jab could also become mandatory in the fall . Anyway I expect that if covid becomes an annually mutating nuisance like the flu, then it could all be one jab.

If you remember 20K was the original UK estimate for deaths this time last year..

One year ago is ancient history, as far as COVID opinions go.

[Westcliffe01]

All of the pro-vaxers: Please name the last virus that the world was successfully vaccinated against ?


Lets look at the last virus that posed a major problem to mankind (and still does) which is HIV / aids.
Estimated child and adult deaths in 2010 : 1.6-1.9 million


If humanity has not developed a successful vaccine against HIV, why should I believe that the Covid vaccine is going to be any more successful ?


We all know that virus vaccines cant be developed in the same way that polio and smallpox vaccines are developed, because of the rapid mutation of the virus.

[sv_pelagia]

e.g., hepatitis, measles...

Don't let facts get in the way...

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

All of the pro-vaxers: Please name the last virus that the world was successfully vaccinated against ?

The flu? Every year, a flu jab gives 40 to 80+% protection against the oncoming flu season, as well as reducing the severity of most other flu's. Pretty freaking amazing.

Lets look at the last virus that posed a major problem to mankind (and still does) which is HIV / aids.

If humanity has not developed a successful vaccine against HIV, why should I believe that the Covid vaccine is going to be any more successful ?

Because AIDS isn't COVID? Because the COVID vaccines did well in trials?

If you're afraid, don't get the COVID shot. But don't spread BS reasons to justify a selfish decision. Own it.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Stephen_MO

Hi Montanan, I am with you on the diet and exercise tied to benefits. That said, I would suggest you consider some other factors regarding dismissing employees regarding Covid issues.
. . .

They are pro-vaccine (as you would expect) but one thing they both strongly hold, based on taking a *strictly scientific/clinical perspective* on the data that is available to them (and that I have reviewed and also analyzed), is that people who have been *proven* by test to have had and recovered from covid19 have robust immune response such that the numbers of absolutely proven covid reinfection in the US is significantly smaller than things like the number of people struck by lightning every year. To be sure there are other people who have had Covid reinfection that just weren't caught in testing, but what data there is suggests reinfected people are almost always asymptomatic (from a danger to themselves is typically minimal standpoint) and functionally indistinguishable from the 100 Million+ people in the US who are 25 and under and typically asymptomatic (from a danger to others standpoint)...in which population, Covid 19 reinfections are not even a split percent of a rounding error. They also noted that SARS and some other prior coronavirus exposure seem to mostly convey immunity to Covid 19...basically this virus seems to respond well to natural immunity and be nothing special, to say the least, regarding reinfection. Also on the good news front, it seems that although Covid is mutating (virus have a fragile DNA copying mechanism), that true to norms for viruses, those mutations are often more infectious, but also tend to be less lethal (the news is not going to tell you that btw) so they tend to be a natural mechanism to propagate immunity with lessening legality. If viruses didn't tend to work like this, humans would have been extinct long ago. All that said, my wife has had *BOTH* vaccines and is also post-Covid and her work says that she still has to wear a mask and social distance from other staff (also vaccinated and mostly post Covid) "for safety", in a non-clinical office setting...which everyone in the discussion agreed that there is zero scientific/medical basis for and ridiculous on it face...because large swaths of this have become political. So for you, as a fellow business owner, I would gently suggest that you 1) should look into the *raw* data (not news, not CDC) yourself before you fire any of your (provably) post-Covid employees who claim immunity from Covid, because the data I am seeing suggest they are almost certainly on solid scientific ground that, for them, masks and wearing and social distancing serves political/aesthetic, but no Covid related purpose.

I believe that you have a misperception as to the degree of reinfection that is likely and as to the degree of breakthrough that is likely regarding specific vaccinations and specific variants. The danger is very real and very substantial.

The first large-scale investigation to tackle that question was published in The Lancet this week, and it found that the vast majority of people who have had COVID-19 are indeed protected from catching it again — for at least six months. However, people ages 65 and older are far more likely than younger individuals to experience repeat infection.

The researchers analyzed data from Denmark’s national COVID-19 testing program, which has offered free PCR testing to roughly 4 million people living in the country. Overall, they found that a very small percentage of the population — 0.65% — experienced reinfection.

For those 65 and under, getting the coronavirus once provided roughly 80% protection against reinfection, that means 1 in 5 are not protected. But for people 65 and older, it provided only about 47% protection against getting COVID-19 again, meaning the majority do not have protection via natural immunity, further highlighting how dangerous this disease can be for older adults.

Review the data analytics below.

Reference:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...575-4/fulltext

Assessment of protection against reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 among 4 million PCR-tested individuals in Denmark in 2020: a population-level observational study

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by Paul L

A large scale study in Denmark showed that the protection from reinfection after having Covid is about 80%. If over 65 then closer to 50%. 80 % is pretty high, just not as high as the current vaccines.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/947666

It is a pretty silly argument to say I have a strong immune system so I'm protected from Covid. No one knows how an individuals immune system will react. A main route to death with Covid is a cytokine storm - you know, where the immune system overreacts.

This is silly, if you had covid your organism learned to fight the real enemy, a vaccine is only a proxy. It is like being in a war and fighting a real enemy and moving target vs. training in a firing range shooting at paper paintings.

A vaccine cannot give you a better or higher protection than your immune systems contact with the real virus.

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

This is silly, if you had covid your organism learned to fight the real enemy, a vaccine is only a proxy. It is like being in a war and fighting a real enemy and moving target vs. training in a firing range shooting at paper paintings.

A vaccine cannot give you a better or higher protection than your immune systems contact with the real virus.

That all seems very logical but if your second exposure to Covid after an earlier infection is a different strain, the antibodies in your body might not recognize it. But, apparently the vaccines are proving to be effective against at least some of the newer strains that have recently shown themselves. So, while the vaccine might not yield any stronger antibodies than an actual infection, it might include antibodies from the variant you are currently exposed to that is of a different strain than you had before.

[Enrique100]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

This is silly, if you had covid your organism learned to fight the real enemy, a vaccine is only a proxy. It is like being in a war and fighting a real enemy and moving target vs. training in a firing range shooting at paper paintings.

A vaccine cannot give you a better or higher protection than your immune systems contact with the real virus.

Pretty bold assumption considering that a lot more goes into building an immune response than just survival. Hypothetically, let's say someone catches an illness that they fight off. In the process though, they only create antibodies that work against a part of the virus that shows up once it's in a cell and already causing infection. In contrast, let's say we can create a vaccine that stimulates an immune response against some part of the virus which would even prevent that virus from entering a cell. Theoretically, the vaccine option could create a more robust and effective defense to a virus than relying on natural immunity. Not all immune responses are created equal and asserting that natural infection is always more effective is just plain wrong.

This doesn't even take into account what a virus can do to a host to prevent an effective immune response in the first place.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by jtsailjt

Well that's got to be one of your more ridiculous posts. You may generally be a healthy person and not obese or have any other co-morbidities but you could still be infected with covid and be broadcasting it to those less fortunate than you or I regarding general good health and immunity. Yes, obesity is an issue (not for me, btw) for many in the US but it's not the only one that tends to make folks vulnerable to serious damage or death from Covid. Even college athletes have died of it! Besides, we're discussing a worldwide problem, not one limited to overweight Americans.

I also don't take any drugs other than a very occasional ibuprofen and a skin cream to help with keratosis from sun damage, so please don't suggest that I'm an advocate for fixing all our problems with drugs OR that I have an unhealthy lifestyle (how would you know?). I'm very far from that but instead of addressing what I actually advocate for and write, you attempt to paint me as a member of some stereotypical American that's easy to disagree with. It might be an effective tactic but it's dishonest and rather pathetic.

Poor little boatie feeling sorry for himself for being treated as a tobacco pariah.. As far as your suggestion that second hand smoke isn't really a problem, that's a total rationalization of YOUR unhealthy lifestyle choice. My uncle, a non smoker, died of lung cancer about 2 weeks before his wife, who was a lifetime smoker, died of other causes before her emphysema could get her. I completely support your right to smoke or eat big macs or do anything else you want to do to yourself. But I don't think it's very considerate of you to not take any steps possible to decrease the chances of you being the one who's broadcasting covid germs that could come in contact with a vulnerable person, whether they are obese or a smoker or have any other risk factors you have no way of being aware of. You may think you're healthy and if there was any way to instantaneously determine the moment you become Covid contagious, I'd support your right to not get vaccinated if at the first indication of covid, you totally isolated yourself. But the reality is that there's no way for any of us to be sure of the exact moment when we catch covid and become contagious to others so wearing a mask to prevent broadcasting our exhalations such a long distance and getting vaccinated is what we're left with to prevent the spread of this deadly disease. Your covid philosophy sounds a LOT like Donald Trump used to sound before he caught covid and had quite a scare, and now even HE is recommending for people to get vaccinated. So, how does it feel to be even more Trumpier than Trump himself?

Not sure what to think of your 'snapping sphincters' comment except that I can't say I'm surprised it's a concept you seem to be familiar with....

Oh so patronizing with the poor little Boatie.. as for Mac's and Taco's.. I don't eat *****.
As for cancer.. there's a multitude of reasons for that including work environments, traffic pollution etc..
Re smoking, I ask if anyone minds if I smoke, if they do I move away.. unlike non smokers who will choose to sit next to a person despite other empty tables in a courtyard then bitch about filthy habits and act outraged.
Regarding for what I think of you seeing as you choose to make it personal. . I don't.. you live with your fears.
Snapping sphincters.. I hear them every time you post.
I'll stick with my choices.

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Oh so patronizing with the poor little Boatie.. as for Mac's and Taco's.. I don't eat *****.
As for cancer.. there's a multitude of reasons for that including work environments, traffic pollution etc..
Re smoking, I ask if anyone minds if I smoke, if they do I move away.. unlike non smokers who will choose to sit next to a person despite other empty tables in a courtyard then bitch about filthy habits and act outraged.
Regarding for what I think of you seeing as you choose to make it personal. . I don't.. you live with your fears.
Snapping sphincters.. I hear them every time you post.
I'll stick with my choices.

When you complain that you’ve been treated like a ‘pariah’ it sounds like you really think you’re a victim, which sounds almost millennialesque, thus the “poor boatie.” Like I said, I don’t care a bit where you smoke and I never even considered you might not be courteous in how you go about it so no need to be defensive. You seem to have quite a chip on your shoulder regarding those people who sit near a smoker and then act all outraged but it’s just as likely that they didn’t notice you were a smoker until already seated. As people are being seated they tend to be focused more on the hostess or the location of the tv or whether it’s near a door that’s drafty, etc. and not who their neighbors at the next table will be. To you the smell seems normal but non smokers noses are much more sensitive to it than yours is by now if you’re a long time smoker. That causes you to think they are being ultra sensitive about just an occasional whiff but from their perspective you’re foully polluting all the air in the whole courtyard. Not saying who’s right or wrong, just how it is. I’m not particularly sensitive to it unless the smoking is indoors and really thick, but I know lots of people who genuinely have a bad physical reaction to it. If you don’t think smoking is a huge health risk, you’re only fooling yourself.

Im not sure what you’re talking about regarding living with fears because I don’t personally have any big covid fears to live with. Like you, I seem to have a strong immune system and I’m healthy and fit (and don’t smoke) and I also have been vaccinated. As I’ve explained, the problem will be, once everyone has been offered the vaccine and most people vaccinated that the existence of a significant number of non vaccinated people will allow covid to live on and continue to mutate and eventually possibly become a strain that’s resistant to the vaccines we’re currently using.

Yes, you’ve said you’ll live with your choices and if it were that simple I’d have no complaint. But what I’ve been trying to get you to understand is that it’s not only about living with your choices but rather it’s also other people you come in contact with being forced to live with your choices, and even though it might not hurt you, it might kill some of them. You seem to not have much of a care regarding the fate of obese people who eat too many Big Macs but what about the folks with a condition that prevents them from being vaccinated? My brother in law has Lyme disease and he was told by his doctor not to get the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines so he’s patiently waiting for the J&J version and who knows when that’ll be available locally. There are other medical conditions that prevent any vaccinations. For them, we need to kill this thing!

As for making it personal, try reading a few of your own posts, ranting about an unflattering American stereotype you seem to have a real problem with. I’m proud to be an American and I’ve traveled all over the world and been treated very well and expressed my gratitude and reciprocated, and I’ve never been obese or use drugs and I don’t blame my problems on anyone else and as far as I know I’m not a victim. Sorry if that doesn’t fit the box you’d like to put me in but that’s how it is.

[Westcliffe01]

I'm more afraid of getting the vaccine than getting the disease. I have never had the flu shot. Have not had the flu in years either. The majority of deaths as everyone knows has been of elderly people in nursing homes, helped by our governors moving covid positive people into those facilities as well as totally ineffective measures to prevent the spread of infection by staff. In many cases, the persons life might have been shortened by 6 months to a year given their generally poor health in the first place. The baseline death rate in the US is 280k/yr. With the covid stats the total number is slightly higher, but without covid the number would not have been 300k lower it cant be.

Then regarding the number of fatalities, many people died with covid as opposed to from it. Anyone who tested positive was called a covid victim regardless of whether the cause of death was a car accident. But I understand that government needed people to be afraid so that they would comply and the media was active in promoting this fear globally.

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

The flu? Every year, a flu jab gives 40 to 80+% protection against the oncoming flu season, as well as reducing the severity of most other flu's. Pretty freaking amazing.

Because AIDS isn't COVID? Because the COVID vaccines did well in trials?

If you're afraid, don't get the COVID shot. But don't spread BS reasons to justify a selfish decision. Own it.

[SailingVeracity]

A recent study reported in the Lancet indicated that the COVID-19 vaccination may increase a persons IQ as statistics show that persons that have been immunized have a higher IQ than those who haven’t.🤨