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Old 22-05-2020, 20:23   #316
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

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It’s a difficult ethical dilemma. But losing 40 million jobs in the US alone, not to mention the economic destruction in the rest of the world, has to have a terrible long term effect. Why is it taboo to talk about that? An economic depression is upon us worse than 1930’s. How many years will it take to recreate 40 million jobs in the US?
It's perfectly fine to discuss it, as long as you can acknowledge that the lockdowns are pretty much ending now. Nothing will change the past. It's happened. And now, we're going to get back up to economic speed again. Slower than some would like, but it will happen.

This is NOT the 1930s again. Completely different fundamentals. This particular economic crisis was caused by an artificial suppression of demand, not by some major economic failure like the crash of 1929. As demand returns, rehiring will happen. We're much smarter and better prepared now to cope with this.

They will take a while to reach Jan 2020 levels, but everybody knows the markets were overdue for a correction of 10% or more, even before the coronavirus. Dow-Jones is still higher today than on Jan 1, 2019.

Do you have stocks or a 401k or whatever? What's your advisor telling you to do? Same thing as any companies with lots of cash are planning: get ready to start buying, to catch a piece of the recovery.
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Old 23-05-2020, 05:12   #317
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

Amazing every time I read about the " virus" it quickly changes to economics. 40 million jobs lost how long to recover? worse than 1930's depression. Does anyone think that these jobs will be recovered? We use more robots every day and constantly work to cut costs--labor. Improve technology to save money and cut costs-- labor again. Businesses that have cut personnel want to get up to speed again. But they want to do that as cheaply as possible ---labor. Which do you think they want 10 workers at $10/hr. Or 1 worker at $30/hr. and 3 robots. or 2 robots and more technology. Labor is going to be a bigger problem than ever before.
Now the good workers with great work histories are slowly/quickly becoming the unemployed welfare recipients . oops unemployment insurance recipients. Then what?
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Old 23-05-2020, 07:05   #318
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

Most jobs lost are in anti robot (is that a word?) activities like hospitality. But automation will replace many people whose jobs are not yet lost. For example, the big social media platforms are rapidly moving to AI for many job functions. Twitter, FB and the like all believe more than 50% of their current labor force can be automated with AI. And we will see a lot of people remain working at home even after it is over. We may have seen peek employment in the US and EU.

So there will be many long lasting changes that indirectly evolve from this pandemic. Chief among them will be a new generation who are indoctrinated that they cannot possibly provide for themselves without an overseer to whom they owe obedience. Do as Fauci says and donít question the ďexpertsĒ.

We are already seeing the first significant action on that front in Hong Kong. China has legislated away the autonomy that HK should have enjoyed for another quarter century. Canít have the mainlanders learn that you can survive and thrive without being told every step to make. My guess is no outside entity will protest much or even do anything about it. Likely, Taiwan will be next and after that, gradually the rest of Indo-China will fall under Beijingís control through economic and military persuasion. Both parties in the US are on record as being anti-war so what does China have to worry about?

Russia and India could be severely weakened as the virus tears through their population. A vaccine released this fall might change the risk factors. But a huge anti-vaccine campaign will try to blunt that. But for what reason anti-vaccine forces exist is a mystery to me. I know itís about power but what power do they think they can get? A lot of anti-vaccine nonsense is sponsored by Russia but I havenít figured out their game. Do they do it just because they can?
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Old 23-05-2020, 07:38   #319
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

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40 million jobs lost how long to recover? worse than 1930's depression.
...
Which do you think they want 10 workers at $10/hr. Or 1 worker at $30/hr. and 3 robots. or 2 robots and more technology. Labor is going to be a bigger problem than ever before.
Why all the pessimism? I suspect that some fringe commentators are feeding this to worried people. Doesn't much help with the fear thing, does it?

Recovery? I'm gonna go out on a limb with some ideas:
  • At least 75% of the COVID-19 lost jobs will return within a year, as demand returns. Restaurants, home services, retail, as well as larger industries.
  • Health care will increase hiring to continue to manage the pandemic, care facilities will be mandated to increase staffing.
  • Infrastructure projects will get the green light and government funding. If people are going to need government money going forward, you might as well have something to show for it.
  • Many older workers will opt to take early retirement, possibly encouraged by top-ups
  • New businesses will pop up, many started by laid-off workers

btw -Robot and automation technology create GOOD high-tech jobs that pay well

Labour was and is a problem to faced even before the pandemic. Long-term jobs that provide a good living are disappearing, period. Especially low-skill work. Advanced nations like the US will eventually not have enough decent-paying work for everyone who wants it. It's a problem that will have to be addressed in some fashion. Maybe the pandemic has moved up the timetable.

I would love to hear other's ideas (or suggestions) for what economic recovery could look like.

(alot of anti-vax sentiment is encouraged by alt-right and libertarian groups who see vaccines as the gummint forcing some chemicals into your body, and taking away your choice in the matter. It's one more avenue for promoting anti-government sentiment. And Russia likes stuff that divides and enrages Americans)
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Old 23-05-2020, 09:18   #320
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

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Well, that is a very Eurocentric opinion, indeed! You are ignoring Russia, which extends far east of Europe, Singapore (which has huge problems in its cramped immigrant worker accommodations...no social distancing) Brazil and Chile, which are as far away from Europe as you can get, in the Americas. And, there are others. Iran, for one, was one of the first with a major problem. A globe would be instructive
Did you not note I said WESTER EIROPE and that is tails off as you move out?

I agree some graphics would be good, a global map that showed Deaths/million.

Many of the current geocharts show either cases or total numbers, not the death rate which is all we really know and can compare.

I think I posted the top death rates for each toe area. Russia and Brazil are far below Western Europe.
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Old 23-05-2020, 09:29   #321
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
It's perfectly fine to discuss it, as long as you can acknowledge that the lockdowns are pretty much ending now. Nothing will change the past. It's happened. And now, we're going to get back up to economic speed again. Slower than some would like, but it will happen.

This is NOT the 1930s again. Completely different fundamentals. This particular economic crisis was caused by an artificial suppression of demand, not by some major economic failure like the crash of 1929. As demand returns, rehiring will happen. We're much smarter and better prepared now to cope with this.

They will take a while to reach Jan 2020 levels, but everybody knows the markets were overdue for a correction of 10% or more, even before the coronavirus. Dow-Jones is still higher today than on Jan 1, 2019.

Do you have stocks or a 401k or whatever? What's your advisor telling you to do? Same thing as any companies with lots of cash are planning: get ready to start buying, to catch a piece of the recovery.
This topic, corina investing, may deserve a separate thread. Itís surly related to cruising because so many of us can only cruise because of these investments.

Iíve a small 401k and a small apt building (4 units) in an excellent location. I have SS and a broker/advisor.

I directed him to move most of my Money into fixed income 28 months ago anticipating a correction. About 25% was in stocks. I had him move that into cash equivalents the Thursday before the market crashed.

Looking forward he and I both fear significant inflation. So Iím Leaving half my money in fixed income and moving half into a group of REITís: distribution centers, cell towers, farmland, data centers. The idea is that at these are predominately real assets which are inflation hedges.

I saw some REITs that were being masked by experts I did not like. One that leases to the USPS, another that leases to the US Government, and an office space REIT. These were all highly rated by the ďexpertsĒ, but those ratings seemed to be more of a market consensus report than any kind of analysis.
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Old 23-05-2020, 09:55   #322
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

About investing in a crisis: your guess is as good as anyone elseís.
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Old 23-05-2020, 10:05   #323
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

I work in high tech. We've been largely spared the impact of COVID related layoffs, but it has happened in some of the smaller companies.

Many of the larger companies are realizing how that remote workers can be a successful strategy at scale -- and are moving to permanently embrace this new paradigm.

As such -- many workers are startig to re-evaluate where they live. I mean, if you don't need to pay Bay Area cost of living, why would you? The dream would be to pocket your Bay Area salary and go live... somewhere else. BUT...

The big companies are realizing this, and some have even explicitly said they will index compensation to your LOCAL cost of living.

I foresee salary deflation for some in this sector.
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Old 23-05-2020, 10:55   #324
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

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Originally Posted by hpeer View Post
Did you not note I said WESTER EIROPE and that is tails off as you move out?

I agree some graphics would be good, a global map that showed Deaths/million.

Many of the current geocharts show either cases or total numbers, not the death rate which is all we really know and can compare.

I think I posted the top death rates for each toe area. Russia and Brazil are far below Western Europe.

Anecdotally, both Brazil and Russia have many cases and deaths, even though their reporting definitions may be skewed for political reasons. And, they have the second and third highest number of cases, behind the US.
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Old 23-05-2020, 11:29   #325
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

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I am aware that Sweden has seen an upsurge in new cases.

The challenge is what level of destruction we are willing to accept to save ďevery possible lifeĒ from this terrible virus and at the same time change the political balance of the US? That is what we are discussing.

Itís a difficult ethical dilemma. But losing 40 million jobs in the US alone, not to mention the economic destruction in the rest of the world, has to have a terrible long term effect. Why is it taboo to talk about that? An economic depression is upon us worse than 1930ís. How many years will it take to recreate 40 million jobs in the US?

How many millions of people died as a result of the 1930ís mess? A hundred million? World War II arose out of that depression. Do you really think that is impossible in the 21st century? It is very possible and becoming more likely.

Reports out of Russia are that deaths are much higher than reported. China has a new outbreak affecting 100 million people. North Korea has been quietly struggling to keep its elites happy at the expense of the peasants. India has the virus running rampant in big cities. They are handing out HCQ like candy.

The EU and the US need to step it up and deal with this economic and health crisis. But all we do is scream about governors killing Grandma and try to generate more Twitter likes and retweets. Itís way beyond ridiculous. Itís deadly serious.





Actually, what WE were discussing was simply whether the measures taken have had an effect, not the economic impact; that argument is with someone else! However, you are incorrect in saying that there are no objective analyses as to how effective lockdown's, quarantines, and such have been. Let me demonstrate the difference between the USVI and the BVI. These two are territories of different countries, have separate and differing governments, but are closely intertwined. Most families are represented in both places, we, in the BVI often shop there, and both are tourist economies, although we (the BVI) have a large financial services element. At the closest point of approach, we are less than a mile apart.



The BVI closed it's borders, early, did a six day total lockdown, then partially opened so people could stock up (chaotic) and then locked down for three more weeks. When I say lockdown, that's what it was. No supermarkets or other exceptions. Those that didn't have food were delivered food parcels by the government. Same for medications. We were SHUT. And then we opened very, very gradually. In my case, I was anchored in a bay with about 35-40 other boats, many of them crewed yachts like mine, and whilst we communicated, we all observed the lockdown and kept to ourselves. For me, it was a total of six and a half weeks. The government did not want us to move, as they were heavily patrolling the waters between ourselves and the USVI. NO one wanted any passages back and forth to our sister Territory. We did lots of tracking, have plenty of tests available, and, in some cases, placed guards outside of houses under quarantine. Early on, I think there were about 160 people under quarantine. Our box score, to date, is eight positive cases, six hospitalized, six recovered, so far, and one death. We have one case currently, and none new for a couple of weeks We still wear our masks and have a 7PM to 6AM curfew. Obviously, the tourist and charter industry are at a painful standstill, but we are pretty sure that we have, or are close to having beaten the virus. When we re-open, we will be able to offer a virus free destination, as long as we develop some sort of protocol to identify virus infected persons when they arrive. By the way, repatriation flights to the BVI, which will start in a bit more than a week, will still require that those being repatriated undergo supervised quarantine for a week. I understand that many will think that our measures have been draconian but that is not what I am discussing. I am discussing the results of these measures, which you have said aren't available.



The USVI, on the other hand, had much looser controls, including open borders. In fact, there have been more boats there than ever, for the simple reason that it was the only place a boat could go if it was kicked out of wherever it was. Some islands required visiting boats to leave, and some had no option other than a non-stop trip to their home, whether in Europe, the US, or wherever, so the USVI became sort of a haven. Flights still flew and I don't think they ever had a total lockdown, although they did quarantine visiting boats and forbade any accommodations, whether on boats or land, from accepting guests. They have a bit more than three times our population, but they had 69 cases, where we had 8, They had 6 deaths, where we had 1. They expect to open in a week, including charters (but not to here) and it will be interesting to see how that works. We wish them luck but think they are being over aggressive, which does not surprise us.


I am sure there are objective comparisons that can be made in many other places, but this is a solid example, with very few, if any, variables, other than how severe the rules have been. Facts.
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Old 23-05-2020, 12:39   #326
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

Shops around the US make headlines for denying entry to those wearing masks as protesters argue against preventative measures in the name of freedom.

... wow.
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Old 23-05-2020, 14:45   #327
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

Fauci said masks arenít useful for casual contact such as a store transaction. He said a mask might help an infected person slow spreading from a sneeze or cough. A mask will not prevent infection of the wearer.

Well, he said all of that before the mask stuff started. I suspect we only need masks to make the less educated feel more at ease. Otherwise, the poor souls have panic attacks as a non-mask wearing jogger zips past. Jogging with a mask is actually dangerous BTW.

The virus primarily transmits person to person in close contact for extended periods. Brief encounters are not a significant risk.
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Old 23-05-2020, 15:23   #328
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

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[Dr Fauci] said a mask might help an infected person slow spreading from a sneeze or cough. A mask will not prevent infection of the wearer.
BOTH statements are correct, and are still the prevailing wisdom with regards to masks. A mask on a wearer would stop direct spray (yuk) but not tiny airborne particles that can get in at the sides.

So why has there been more recent discussion around mask wearing?
  • It's still believed that many who catch COVID-19 are asymptomatic, and they won't know that they have it (unless tested) So it's quite possible that such people could spread it without knowing.
  • Social habit and stigma. If everyone wears a mask in public situations (stores, public transit, etc), then there should be no stigma towards or against wearing one.

This is all assuming a bunch of jackholes won't turn wearing a mask or not into a political statement.

Quote:
The virus primarily transmits person to person in close contact for extended periods. Brief encounters are not a significant risk.
Sorry, not the case. Cue the CDC:
Quote:
Person-to-person spread
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms.

The virus spreads easily between people
How easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious, like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. Another factor is whether the spread is sustained, which means it goes from person-to-person without stopping.

The virus that causes COVID-19 is spreading very easily and sustainably between people. Information from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic suggest that this virus is spreading more efficiently than influenza, but not as efficiently as measles, which is highly contagious.

The virus may be spread in other ways
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about how this virus spreads.
So yes, brief encounters ARE a significant risk, if one person is infected. Hence the recommendation for social distancing, and for masks in confined public spaces and where social distance can't be maintained.
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Old 23-05-2020, 15:48   #329
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Covid-19 What Do You Think?

Brief encounters are not a significant risk. It takes time to take on a sufficient viral load to become infected. It is extremely unlikely a person passing on the sidewalk can infect another. Nearly all infections require close contact for an extended period. It is unknown exactly what constitutes an extended period. But it isnít 30 seconds. Most doctors think it is on the order of 15 minutes of close contact breathing the same air.

We are not dealing with some super weaponized virus.
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Old 23-05-2020, 16:28   #330
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Re: Covid-19 What Do You Think?

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Brief encounters are not a significant risk. It takes time to take on a sufficient viral load to become infected. It is extremely unlikely a person passing on the sidewalk can infect another. Nearly all infections require close contact for an extended period.

Where are you getting this stuff? COVID-19 is more infectious than the flu, and less infectious as the measles.


Quote:
The minimum infectious dose of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is unknown so far, but researchers suspect it is low. ďThe virus is spread through very, very casual interpersonal contact,Ē W. David Hardy, a professor of infectious disease at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, told STAT.
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