Corona virus in Italy

[atoll]

FYI
ist 2cases in the carribean island of st martin

RESPONSE TO CONFIRMED CASES OF COVID-19 ON FRENCH SAINT MARTIN

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by kryg

Sorry your statement is not correct flu kills less then .5 % of the infected population Corona virus is more deadly as it kills so far 3.7 % of people infected.

The flu is a known entity and mortality rates have been compiled over a long period and are quite accurate. I think in the case of the corona virus it is too early to put a finger on the death rate as there just isn't enough known about the number of infected individuals. They are many people infected with mild symptoms who may not seek medical treatment, which can skew the death rate figures. Also, we only have a number of total infected people from testing, while many go untested. What I've read so far is it could be between 2% and 4%, which is certainly much higher than the flu death rate. What is certain is the virus is spreading rapidly and travel plans in the coming months will be uncertain, at best, as restrictions are imposed and new hot spots emerge.

[atoll]

I started a new thread for corona virus alerts for cruisers with the first few islands being affected in the west indies.

please could you post if you have new relevant reports of outbreaks relevant to cruisers so we can keep information on one thread
this thread is a sticky on the emergency,disaster and distress notice board.

please supply source information and links when posting.

https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...63#post3085863

[suedstern1]

Our cat is currently in Sicily. We will be there end of March and planning to stay in the area of Sicily - Sardinia - Corsica and Italian mainland in 2020. From our point of view there is currently no need to change plans because of the Corona virus. As already mentioned, it's like a strong influence and will fade out.


BR
Fred

[Bruce K]

Person to person transmission in Australia now. Two people(one a health worker) who have not been out of Australia now are infected.

[arsenelupiga]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

The flu is a known entity and mortality rates have been compiled over a long period and are quite accurate. I think in the case of the corona virus it is too early to put a finger on the death rate as there just isn't enough known about the number of infected individuals. They are many people infected with mild symptoms who may not seek medical treatment, which can skew the death rate figures. Also, we only have a number of total infected people from testing, while many go untested. What I've read so far is it could be between 2% and 4%, which is certainly much higher than the flu death rate. What is certain is the virus is spreading rapidly and travel plans in the coming months will be uncertain, at best, as restrictions are imposed and new hot spots emerge.

yeah, 2 to 4% now that you get good care. As they say early bird catches the worm. What maters more is that 20 % gets into critical condition. With large increase of cases, there is little hope you get ventilator and medicines to improve chances of survival and death rate could be much closer to 20% in coming months. Oh yes, ventilarors and medicines make in china and they need it for themselves so no extra capacity will be available.

Maybe we start thread how to make DIY ventilator on boat.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by suedstern1

Our cat is currently in Sicily. We will be there end of March and planning to stay in the area of Sicily - Sardinia - Corsica and Italian mainland in 2020. From our point of view there is currently no need to change plans because of the Corona virus. As already mentioned, it's like a strong influence and will fade out.


BR
Fred

2% is like 1 in 50.

Do you know how high that is in terms of death rate?

With no vaccine, a long incubation period, and no known treatment. Spreads asymptotically. This is no ordinary influenza, and it’s not going to disappear when the sun comes out.

And you’re proposing to go to a country where the number of cases is roughly doubling every day and traveling between other countries.

While I don’t think people should panic, they need to take this seriously. If this comes to your neighborhood, people you know will die. In my opinion, March is the wrong time to be going to a neighborhood where you know there’s a threat and saying “I’m not worried, it’s like the flu.” It is more like the common cold that can kill you. If you contract it, you may not know you have it for a week. In that time, you may be passing it along to others.

Even if you don’t care, other people do. Have you not seen video of places struck by this? Looks like a dystopian movie. Places shut down.

Make your plans. But don’t kid yourself about the seriousness of the threat.

[slug]

Originally Posted by kryg

Sorry your statement is not correct flu kills less then .5 % of the infected population Corona virus is more deadly as it kills so far 3.7 % of people infected.

Difficult to determine the virus death rate

Many corona sick don’t report for testing , they just stay home for a few days thinking they have the common flu

It will take more time to determine dead statistics

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by arsenelupiga

yeah, 2 to 4% now that you get good care. As they say early bird catches the worm. What maters more is that 20 % gets into critical condition. With large increase of cases, there is little hope you get ventilator and medicines to improve chances of survival and death rate could be much closer to 20% in coming months. Oh yes, ventilarors and medicines make in china and they need it for themselves so no extra capacity will be available.

Maybe we start thread how to make DIY ventilator on boat.

I haven't seen anything to back up the claim that 20% develop severe symptoms and, without widespread testing, this claim is impossible. There are lots of people who don't develop symptoms or just cold-like symptoms and don't seek medical attention. As I said, it will take time and a lot more testing of the population to get an idea of the severity of the virus and the death rate.

Have a look at this video, which summarizes some of the current data and understanding of the virus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wELsVm1CwY

[ol1970]

Do not go to Italy anytime in the next 3 months, we all need to wait and see how this plays out. I’d say if you go ahead and book your tickets make sure you buy the travel insurance. This of course will pass, but the extent of the spread is still unknown as well as the death rate. From a risk reward standpoint it’s not even close. Don’t let people convince you that it’s just the flu.

In China the government set up military apocalyptic style road blocks to contain the virus, they went door to door and ripped people out of their homes and dropped them in a quarantine if they had a fever, they welded doors shut on entire apartment buildings. Big advantage of a communist regime is to be able to act swiftly without taking people’s rights into consideration. All of that and they seem to have done a good job in containing it for now. But China is shut down right now. I don’t see western civilization taking these types of steps until it’s too late (which already happened).

All that being said, risk is low, but if only 1 in 100 on the planet end of getting this and the death rate is only 2% you are still looking at a few million people dying.

[Woodland Hills]

I read that the fatality rate for the sick and elderly is nearly 15%. If correct, that is huge with huge long term implications.

49.2 million over 65 in USA, if only 5% get infected and 15% die, that’s 365,000 fatalities. This does not seem to be an ordinary seasonal flu......

[Chris31415]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

I haven't seen anything to back up the claim that 20% develop severe symptoms and, without widespread testing, this claim is impossible. There are lots of people who don't develop symptoms or just cold-like symptoms and don't seek medical attention. As I said, it will take time and a lot more testing of the population to get an idea of the severity of the virus and the death rate.



Have a look at this video, which summarizes some of the current data and understanding of the virus.

The Economist reports 20% will need treatment in a hospital, with 5% requiring intensive care. What that hospital care consists of isn’t exactly clear, but it would seem that there is a risk that hospitals could be overwhelmed.

“China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care.”

The Economist | Going global https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...ng?frsc=dg%7Ce

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by Chris31415

The Economist reports 20% will need treatment in a hospital, with 5% requiring intensive care. What that hospital care consists of isn’t exactly clear, but it would seem that there is a risk that hospitals could be overwhelmed.

“China’s experience suggests that, of the cases that are detected, roughly 80% will be mild, 15% will need treatment in hospital and 5% will require intensive care.”

The Economist | Going global https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...ng?frsc=dg%7Ce

Yes, I think that is the biggest problem ahead. I hope governments are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. Without general testing among the public, we are still in the dark about the number of infected and the death rate. I imagine for every confirmed (tested) case, there must be many unconfirmed cases, and these unconfirmed cases are out there spreading the virus (and skewing the numbers at the moment).

[Woodland Hills]

If you are going to get this virus, you want to get it now. Before the ICUs are overwhelmed and the supplies run out. Also before the docs and nurses get sick too.

The basic compounds for many common drugs, not just used to treat covid-19, come from China. The center of that industry is Wuhan, we know that those factories have been shut down for several weeks. This supply interruption will work its way to our shores before too long, so if you are dependent upon any prescription meds, perhaps you should stock up now? I have 60 days onboard and another 90 days waiting at St Brendan’s Isle. If it turns out to be an overreaction, then no harm done, if not than I’ve bought myself some time.

[Sand crab]

2 dead in Washington State but both had previous health issues. Pretty soon Italy will issue a travel alert for Seattle.