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Old 18-02-2020, 10:02   #1
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Corona virus

I'll make this short.

I've researched the virus for six weeks.
I'll just say it is bad.
How many here are getting things together for a long boat trip if it hits America like china. How many are prepared or are preparing to get away from the rest. IMHO a self sustaining boat is the perfect way to bug out.
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Old 18-02-2020, 10:26   #2
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Re: Corona virus

Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans, such as the current COVID-19 outbreak.
COVID-19 ➥ https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ronavirus-2019
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Old 18-02-2020, 10:35   #3
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Re: Corona virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by captainbri View Post
I'll make this short.

I've researched the virus for six weeks.
I'll just say it is bad.
How many here are getting things together for a long boat trip if it hits America like china. How many are prepared or are preparing to get away from the rest. IMHO a self sustaining boat is the perfect way to bug out.
This virus is not really bad, mortality is lower than for a normal influensa virus. Outside China actually very low, no idea why. It seems to be very contagious, though. No need to worry excessively. Also, it seems under good control outside of China.

There are probably many more cases than reported, with very mild to mild symptoms, so the real mortality is probably still lower.
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Old 18-02-2020, 10:52   #4
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Re: Corona virus

The really scary thing is that middle age healthcare professionals (whom you would think can get the best hospital care) are dying from it, not old aged with compromised immune systems.
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Old 18-02-2020, 17:22   #5
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Re: Corona virus

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Originally Posted by MartinR View Post
This virus is not really bad, mortality is lower than for a normal influensa virus. Outside China actually very low, no idea why. It seems to be very contagious, though. No need to worry excessively. Also, it seems under good control outside of China.

There are probably many more cases than reported, with very mild to mild symptoms, so the real mortality is probably still lower.
Actually, the mortality rate is significantly higher than the normal Influenza virus. Although, as you say, there are probably more cases than reported (as with the normal Influenza virus), even so, the mortality rate is as high as 2.3% by some calculations and 2% by most calculations. 2% is 20 times higher than the normal influenza virus.

However, one must also look at the age of the mortality. The BBC had a good article on this, show for 80yo+ the mortality rate is 15% and, again, very high for 70yo+.

This Covid-19 virus seems to be harder to pass than the normal influenza virus, but with a higher mortality and the apparently long delay before one is infected and when they begin to show symptoms, there's some reason to be cautious. Cautious, in the sense that right now traveling in certain areas and on certain kinds of travel frequented by those who may be infected might not be all the wise for some folks.

Here's the link to the article: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

It's hopeful by all that control will continue to be gained and the virus will "die' a normal short-term death.
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Old 18-02-2020, 17:49   #6
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Re: Corona virus

Whoever says that it is not as deadly as the normal flu may want to revisit their elementary math teacher

The current death rate is 2.6% of what is reported from China. China is hiding how bad it is, so I would guess that the real number should be doubled or tripled. There is a reason they will not let WHO scientists on site.

The normal flu kills about .012 to .135 % depending on which figures you use. This bug is highly contagious and will travel faster than people think. Just because you are not in China you are not out of the woods.

China controls all of our antibiotic production, a lot of our medical equipment production, not to mention general production. Companies are starting to see the impact in not having the staff on hand to produce.

So I would keep an eye on this site : https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6 and make sure you have your house in order as if it starts to pop off here, we may not be able to get the supplies and or drugs to help the people in a timely manner.
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Old 18-02-2020, 17:58   #7
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Re: Corona virus

I have read something like 85% of our antibiotics are produced in China.

If true that is just plain STUPID!!!

But we are already living on our boat in the Caribbean. We normally head north to Newfoundland for the summer, passing through Philadelphia for various reasons. This year may be different.
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Old 19-02-2020, 02:56   #8
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Re: Corona virus

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Originally Posted by hpeer View Post
I have read something like 85% of our antibiotics are produced in China...
Not exactly, but ...
Fragile Antibiotic Supply Chain Causes Shortages And Is A National Security Threat
“... pharmaceutical companies seem to hold where their plants are located as a closely held secret. In recent years, it has become clear that much of the outsourcing is to China and India, and in the U.S., to Puerto Rico...”
Much more ➥ https://www.forbes.com/sites/judysto.../#531b516aadf3
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Old 19-02-2020, 03:04   #9
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Re: Corona virus

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Originally Posted by captainbri View Post
I'll make this short.

I've researched the virus for six weeks.
I'll just say it is bad.
How many here are getting things together for a long boat trip if it hits America like china. How many are prepared or are preparing to get away from the rest. IMHO a self sustaining boat is the perfect way to bug out.
And where do you think you'll be let into in a case like that?
Countries are already restricting cruisers entries based on where the vessel has been. India is requiring 14 day quarantine for cruising boat that arrive and have been in Thailand within the last 28 days due to coronvirus. Turns out it doesn't have a lot of effect on cruisers as they count passage days as part of the quarantine.
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Old 19-02-2020, 03:12   #10
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Re: Corona virus

“Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020"

CCDC Report ➥ The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020

Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly most at risk.

The research from the CCDC is based on more than 72,000 patient records of COVID-19 reported nationwide through Feb. 11.

Among the more than 44,000 confirmed cases with symptoms, nearly 87 per cent of patients were aged 30 to 79, with nearly three-quarters diagnosed in China's Hubei province.

About four out of five cases were considered mild, and didn't lead to pneumonia, the researchers said.

Another 14 per cent were classified as severe, causing symptoms such as pneumonia and shortness of breath.

And about five per cent of patients developed critical disease, such as respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure. Among the 1,023 deaths, most were among those aged 60 and older, and many had other medical conditions such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

The case fatality rate was 2.3 per cent, the study says. The fatality rate for males was 2.8 per cent and 1.7 per cent for females.

By comparison, in 2003, the case fatality rate for SARS, caused by another coronavirus, was estimated at 10 per cent.
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Old 19-02-2020, 04:54   #11
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Re: Corona virus

My wild speculation is that at some point many countries will give up on travel controls. It seems quite possible that this virus is already free roaming and the quarantine is simply slowing the spread. Some large portion of China’s food and coal/electricity come from outside, without those imports even more folks will die. And by restricting trade severe worldwide economic depression will become a symptom of the disease. At some point money rules. When and where that point is remains hidden.
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Old 19-02-2020, 04:57   #12
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Re: Corona virus

Gord,

While I may be mistaken I was led to believe that the pharmaceutical bloom in PR has faded. It was propped up by some special tax deals that expired, then the corruption made the environment less friendly, and now with recurrent power disruptions its even worse.
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Old 19-02-2020, 05:09   #13
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Re: Corona virus

Quote:
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Gord,
While I may be mistaken I was led to believe that the pharmaceutical bloom in PR has faded. It was propped up by some special tax deals that expired, then the corruption made the environment less friendly, and now with recurrent power disruptions its even worse.
Indeed.
The expiry of the tax incentive (Section 936), in 2006, and the hurricanes of 2016 haven’t helped Puerto Rico’s pharmaceutical industry, but they’re still a very significant player.
ie ➥ https://www.pharmamanufacturing.com/...-but-unbroken/
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Old 19-02-2020, 05:13   #14
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Re: Corona virus

Gord,
Thankyou.
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Old 19-02-2020, 23:49   #15
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Re: Corona virus

Here are the facts all my information comes from doctors, nurses in china and one doctor in America.

All of this information can be back up, this 8nfo is also a week old, just look at the cruise ship going from 75 cases to 500.

Over 100,000 infected.

1,600 medical staff infected.

Convoys of semi trucks spraying fog disinfectant in Chinese cities. 600 people have been dedicated to this.

Crematoriums are running 24/7 one reported cremating 240 bodies a day, satililite photos confirm this. job ads for more crematorium workers have been posted.

Corona lives for 10 days on surfaces, it can take up to 24 days to show signs of being sick while being contagious.

People are having to walk through disnfection tents before being allowed in buildings.

They are washing down cars with disinfectant.

Corona makes SARS and mersa look like a day in the park.

The next thing I expect to see from China using air tankers and crop dusters spray disinfectant.

So back to the original question has anyone started preparing their boat, to get away from the general population of it spreads in your location.
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