Andromeda Strain Ocean Survival Challenge

[owly]

There is a fairly common belief that covid will mutate into a less dangerous virus, though more infectious. This is a mistake. There is ZERO EVOLUTIONARY ADVANTAGE to the virus in becoming less harmful, and tremendous advantage in being able to bypass immunity, and to spread faster. How dangerous each mutation will be is a purely random mutation. One thing that goes without saying is that Covid in some form(s) is now endemic, and we will have to live with it for the foreseeable future.




Imagine the scenario of an extremely deadly mutation rapidly spreading. Omicron for example, but killing a large proportion of the population. An Andromeda Strain let's say. An "Earth Abides" scenario. The pandemic sweeping the world, you have the choice of standing your ground and hoping to be a survivor, or taking to the ocean. The Pacific is one of the largest most empty spaces on the planet. Could a group of boaters flee ahead of the pandemic, and live thousands of miles offshore for an extended period of time? As a teenager, my best friend (now deceased) and I often took "survival trips" into the back country of Eastern and Western Oregon, where we carried no food at all, and lived off the land for as long as a week. (late '60's, early '70's). It was challenging, but possible. We were in wilderness, sometimes the Cascades or Olympics, sometimes the Coast Range, sometimes parts of the John Day or Deschutes or Hells Canyon, Steens Mountain country, Lost Forest, or the Trout Creek Range, etc. I owned every survival manual or book that was available needless to say, and read about native American tribes.
Survival at sea is a topic that simply is not discussed, except in the context of a sinking, yet the sea is loaded with resources. The British made an experimental effort to harvest plankton, or krill...... I forget the details... during WWII, when there was a concern about not being able to feed the population. As far as yachting, we focus on fast passages to land.... the sea as an alien hostile environment to get through to the next tiki bar so we can brag about the speed, or the hardships we endured on our passage. To my knowledge there has been only one serious effort to live long term... a year or two.. at sea, and that did not including depending on the sea for sustenance. The extent of most people's efforts offshore is to rather mindlessly drag a lure in hopes of snagging a Mahi Mahi or Tuna. What is available in edible seaweed? Of course we can in theory at least grow greens aboard..... if we are properly set up for it, and seaweed is not something found in abundance in the open ocean. Perhaps it could be cultivated. One of the more fascinating things I've found is edible gooseneck barnacles:


Gooseneck barnacles, also called percebes, are crustaceans that cling to rocks in places that have a strong crashing surf. In Spain and Portugal, they’re considered a rare and wonderful delicacy, thanks to their sweet flesh, which tastes a bit like a cross between lobster and clam. They’re also impossibly ugly (they resemble some type of prehistoric clawed beast) and extremely expensive, largely because gathering them is such risky and controversial work. In Europe, a single kilo of percebes can fetch almost $500.


Sailing challenges seem to be confined to races........... I would propose an annual ocean survival challenge...... No food aboard, or a specific amount, and a sealed emergency supply. Pedal powered watermaker. The winner being the crew that could stay offshore the longest.

H.W.

[denverd0n]

Originally Posted by owly

There is a fairly common belief that covid will mutate into a less dangerous virus, though more infectious. This is a mistake.

Yet, that is what virtually every virus has done, at least since science has understood what a virus is. That is also what virtually all of the epidemiologists in the world, who have been studying this with real science, are predicting.


But hey! Why pay attention to them? I'd much rather believe some random guy on the internet, predicting the end of the world as we know it.

[Tetepare]

After about three months at sea your boat becomes a FAD and there’s plenty of food. Not sure about greens.

The record already is months, doesn’t sound like fun to me looking at endless water for half a year.

[owly]

Originally Posted by denverd0n

Yet, that is what virtually every virus has done, at least since science has understood what a virus is. That is also what virtually all of the epidemiologists in the world, who have been studying this with real science, are predicting.


But hey! Why pay attention to them? I'd much rather believe some random guy on the internet, predicting the end of the world as we know it.

For one thing, nobody as you suggest is "predicting the end of the world as we know it".... For another, your statement suggesting viruses evolve to become less dangerous is completely inaccurate. Their targets develop immunity, so as viruses mutate, unless their lethality increases, their effect on the target species with it's increasing immunity will decrease. Omicron is a classic example of this. Initially it was thought to be less lethal than Delta. This was because it overcomes immune resistance to infection, so a very large percentage of it's victims had been vaccinated or had "natural immunity". There are at least two aspects to immunity. The ability to resist initial infection, and the ability to resist the damaging effects. those who are unvaccinated and have not had an earlier version of the disease, are highly vulnerable, but "highly vulnerable" has to be viewed in terms of the relatively small perecentage of people exposed to covid who are hospitalized or die. Death rates of perhaps 2-3 per thousand. Fairly decent odds, but I'm not a gambler. I got my vacs and booster at the first opportunity.
I've never "predicted" and "Andromeda Strain" or "Earth Abides" scenario... EVER, but it does make for an interesting potential challenge. The fact is that humanity, and specifically modern civilization is facing REAL existential threats, and disease that kills perhaps a million Americans is trivial in relation to the others we face. Historically "great civilizations" have limited lifespans, which can be measured by various criteria. They have been brought down by a variety of factors. I don't believe disease has ever been a major factor. Humans themselves have often been the undoing of our civilizations. The historian Publius Cornelius Tacitus wrote extensively on the fall of the Roman Empire, and I can tell you, I would NOT have wanted to be there!! Fleeing disease or strife, the vast expanses of the ocean might be the only place to find relative safety and peace for a period of time............ It's just a mental exercise. As a teen my best friend and I took fairly long "survival" trips into the wilderness. Not in the expectation that society would collapse around us, and we would have to take to the hills (like modern preppers). but just because it was an interesting challenge. I wonder how many other people have gone to the back country with zero food for periods of 5 days or more......(that was 50 years ago).

This is little different from the dismasting challenge I've suggested... sending crews out on boats with a simulated dismasting, and scoring them on how quickly they could construct a jury rig and make it to shore...... and how innovative they were... Except that dismastings happen every day. Pandemics do not, though grossly overpopulated, we exist like cattle in a feedlot, pigs in a factory farm, etc (cities), so pandemic is inevitable and this is just the most recent....... neither the first, nor the last.

[goboatingnow]

The notion that a modern , comparatively high tech boat could be self sufficient for extended periods is fanciful nonsense. It’s not about food ,it’s about security and the ability to maintain a degree of social cohesion. Humans are not hermits and enjoy their safety and standards of life precisely be used they band together to act for the common good.

The best place in a crises is on land , in larger groups that are socially & economically independent , genetically diverse and have a broad skill set.

Only the nutter “prepper” brigade think hiding away in the mountains will work. ( or hiding on a boat )

[LakeSuperior]

Quite simply...a mutation that is less lethal has an evolutionary advantage - more hosts to spead the virus.

Secondly, a mutated virus with improved contagion is an advantage in that there will be more hosts to spread the virus.

There are uncountable random mutations occuring in viruses over time. The success of a mutation is measured by the improvement potential for increasing the number of hosts. Consequently, any mutation that has the potential to improve the number of hosts is favored by definition. Therefore, the winners tend to be less lethal and more contagious.

Blocking the virus with an enhanced immune system requires a mutation that results in the virus not being recognized. This mutation may or may not occur in the infected population. If realized the above process starts again with the potential to infect the largest number of hosts being the measure of fitness.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by owly

There is a fairly common belief that covid will mutate into a less dangerous virus, though more infectious. This is a mistake. There is ZERO EVOLUTIONARY ADVANTAGE to the virus in becoming less harmful

When the susceptable hosts are present-day humans, then yes there is a tremendous evolutionary advantage to becoming less dangerous. Mostly because for a less dangerous virus, we wouldn't be expending the same effort to restrain it with isolating, travel restrictions, vaccines, etc.


I suspect (without proof) that in general, most new viruses become less lethal over time because:

• more transmissible versions crowd out the earlier versions
• lethality is an evolutionary disadvantage for a virus
• the host community (aka "herd") eventually develops some level of immunity

Like everyone else, I hope that Omicron is the milder endemic version that signals the end of the pandemic. I suspect we will pretty much know if this is the case or not by end of January.

With regards to sailing challenges, we're still preoccupied with a different set of adventures:

• number of pleasant days afloat
• variety of astounding meals whipped up on a single butane burner by my chef wife
• quality of sunsets toasted from the cockpit, or from the water's edge
• passing larger sailboats, in light air

When we feel we have met all of the above challenges, and these pursuits bore us... then we might consider overcoming manufactured hardships.

[owly]

"high tech" IS an issue. Most sailboats are dependent on lots of absurdly complex maintenance intensive systems... It is perhaps worth looking at how to make sailing yachts less complex...... With high tech comes dependence.



Of course it's "fanciful nonsense", but it's an interesting thing to contemplate... as you are in pointing out the high tech aspect and the social aspect. There is however no reason why social groups / communities cannot exist at sea..... They already do among groups like the ARC and Puddle Jump participants. "The best place in a crisis in on land"...... That depends on the crisis.... With a deadly virus sweeping the population, there is no protective barrier...... unless you can find land isolated by sea, and prevent anybody beyond your group from approaching it, or perhaps a remote corner of Amazonia, etc.


Again, this is idle discussion.. fanciful as you put it. Perhaps the material for a book.... It is pretty obvious that the typical western yacht is not well suited to this sort of thing. It is not just boats..... everything in modern society has become complex and highly dependent. Look for example at the cities. Remove the trucks delivering the goods that cities of millions depend on.... instant crisis. Remove electricity for any significant length of time....... crisis. We've built a veritable house of cards. I live in a remote low population area, with lots of resources such as crops, and livestock, and wild game, but I'm under no illusions about how long those resources would last without establishing some social order based on the common good rather than personal gain.


Anytime one contemplates something like this to any extent, all sorts of things come up.

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The notion that a modern , comparatively high tech boat could be self sufficient for extended periods is fanciful nonsense. It’s not about food ,it’s about security and the ability to maintain a degree of social cohesion. Humans are not hermits and enjoy their safety and standards of life precisely be used they band together to act for the common good.

The best place in a crises is on land , in larger groups that are socially & economically independent , genetically diverse and have a broad skill set.

Only the nutter “prepper” brigade think hiding away in the mountains will work. ( or hiding on a boat )

[owly]

I too hope Omicron proves to be less lethal......... But recent studies suggest otherwise. It is attacking a less vulnerable population that has some immunity due to vaccines and exposure.



Lethality is ONLY an evolutionary disadvantage in the long term. Evolution is NOT an intelligent process, but a random one. If a virus kills off the host population, it will cease to exist, but there is no God of viruses making intelligent planning decisions regarding mutations. The fact that if virus kills off the host population it will cease to exist is small comfort to those of us in the host population ;-)


It is expected that Covid will kill off at least a million Americans, and that those will be Americans with poor immune systems, and of course a lot of stupid people, and older people. If you are in any of those groups....look out! Where I live there are large populations of two of those groups (the latter two).

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

When the susceptable hosts are present-day humans, then yes there is a tremendous evolutionary advantage to becoming less dangerous. Mostly because for a less dangerous virus, we wouldn't be expending the same effort to restrain it with isolating, travel restrictions, vaccines, etc.


I suspect (without proof) that in general, most new viruses become less lethal over time because:

• more transmissible versions crowd out the earlier versions
• lethality is an evolutionary disadvantage for a virus
• the host community (aka "herd") eventually develops some level of immunity

Like everyone else, I hope that Omicron is the milder endemic version that signals the end of the pandemic. I suspect we will pretty much know if this is the case or not by end of January.

With regards to sailing challenges, we're still preoccupied with a different set of adventures:

• number of pleasant days afloat
• variety of astounding meals whipped up on a single butane burner by my chef wife
• quality of sunsets toasted from the cockpit, or from the water's edge
• passing larger sailboats, in light air

When we feel we have met all of the above challenges, and these pursuits bore us... then we might consider overcoming manufactured hardships.

[Zippee]

It is not surprising - all of us being rather anthrocentric - not unexpectedly tend to express our confirmation bias in our own narcissistic favor... in this fashion we want to believe that sure, that viruses will mutate themselves into extinction and we can continue ruining our little home in the universe. Nice eh?

But this ignores the other tendency of nature or natural changes to lead to various extents of extinction. In our case, humanity cannot cooperate or unify to fight Covid, and cannot agree to stop global warming. Perhaps in this case the greater number of species will survive if a virus mutates negatively for us.

Indeed there are any number of viruses affecting humans and other life forms, which viruses have become far more deadly and eliminated their hosts. For example, many scientists believe we - humankind - are both the direct and indirect cause of what is now being called the upcoming "Anthropocene Extinction". Literally millions of species have or will soon be extinct at our hands.

The human virus has become more, not less severe, to the point that the world as we know it may become uninhabitable for the majority of us. It is not unthinkable that what we call nature - of which we are a small but now deadly part - in the cause of restoring harmony nature may have found a way to cause us to become more responsible to all - or be eliminated.

Nature and its Covid may reestablish needed balance - with or without us.

[CaptTom]

Originally Posted by owly

...The Pacific is one of the largest most empty spaces on the planet. Could a group of boaters flee ahead of the pandemic, and live thousands of miles offshore for an extended period of time?...

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)

[Tetepare]

We did this discussion a month ago.


In fact a modern boat IS perfect for months or more offshore. Forget the electronics and motor, those one can do without. The entire boat is fiberglass so will last forever. Plastic tarps and light sails feed rain water to dedicated storage tanks. They’re fast, and only an idiot can be blown ashore, unlike the old square riggers. Plastic boats are a lot of maintenance to keep Bristol, zero maintenance in a survival situation.

Cut a couple meters off any old line and you have years of fishing line. I’m sure everyone can find metal for hooks and spears, if they’re not already aboard. Solar cookers work well in many areas.

What else would one need? All the same, I’d rather do the Castaway thing if I had to be remote. Oh, I have. I don’t mind a bit of solitude. Hey, somebody told me malls, bowling alleys and restaurants were closed because of COVID! Is that true?

[denverd0n]

Originally Posted by owly

I too hope Omicron proves to be less lethal......... But recent studies suggest otherwise.

No, actually, the exact opposite is true. As the Omicron variant spreads it is becoming abundantly clear that it is NOT as lethal as earlier ones.


Working for the medical college of a state university here in Florida, I am involved in collecting and publishing our statistics. I look at them on a regular basis. More and more people testing positive, and yet the death and hospitalization rates have actually been DROPPING recently.


Omicron is EXACTLY following the typical pattern of a viral mutation -- more contagious, but less virulent.

[owly]

Originally Posted by denverd0n

No, actually, the exact opposite is true. As the Omicron variant spreads it is becoming abundantly clear that it is NOT as lethal as earlier ones.


Working for the medical college of a state university here in Florida, I am involved in collecting and publishing our statistics. I look at them on a regular basis. More and more people testing positive, and yet the death and hospitalization rates have actually been DROPPING recently.


Omicron is EXACTLY following the typical pattern of a viral mutation -- more contagious, but less virulent.

We have a LOT of wishful thinking going on.......... The appearance is lower severity, but is that the reality? The people getting Omicron are in a large percentage those who may have had Delta, or been vaxed, and many of those who were neither, evaded it because of some preexisting immunity. That grossly skews the perception......Is the disease less severe? Or are we more resistant? Mark Twain wrote "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics". Statistics alone do not tell the story. The "PATTERN" of lower virulence or lethality with mutation is IMHO utter nonsense. There is zero evolutionary basis for that. Increasing resistance / immunity IS a real thing. The problem with the statistics is the same as with all statistics. They are not accounting for the immunity factor, or the other factors mentioned. We are NOT a virgin population anymore. If Omicron had swept the world before Delta, people would be saying the same thing of Delta.


Here is a snip of a Reuters article posted to Yahoo News:


Researchers at Imperial College London compared 11,329 people with confirmed or likely Omicron infections with nearly 200,000 people infected with other variants. So far, according to a report issued ahead of peer review and updated on Monday, they see "no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection."



https://news.yahoo.com/omicron-infec...195632713.html

[jeanathon]

:yawn
methinks the mutant in this thread is the OP trolling with the virus